Your 10-11 lineup depth charts
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 28, 2010 6:31 PM CDT
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PrintI'v always been a big fan of the system of writing down depth charts by writing the number of minutes next to the player.
As going over our roster was keeping me awake I decided to get out of bed and write down how I think our rotation should look like for the coming season.This is completely ignoring injury backup though. Only position where this could be a problem is the 1 as we have plenty of interchangeable 2/3's and 4/5's.
Please feel welcome to post your own!
1: Ridnour (24) / Flynn (24)
2: Johnson (24) / Webster (24)
3: Brewer (24) / Beasley (16) / Johnson(8)
4: Love (36) / Beasley (12)
5: Darko (24) / Pekovic (24)
Some notes:
I think it's impossible with the talented big men we have that we do not play Beasley some at the 3. No way we can play them all only 24 minutes or less. I'd let Brewer take the smaller, more wing-type opposings 3's as much as possible while playing Beasley against the somewhat bigger players with less range on their shot... as much as that is possible.
The group that is in front should start. Whom of the 2 PG's start is the toughest question for me .. I would fiddle around with it and see what gives the best synergie in the lineups... But I went with Ridnour cuz I think he has the better chance of still being here when and if Rubio comes over (which is highly debatable).
Either way you configure it .. we have some pretty nice firepower from outside combined with inside presence. Especially with Beasley and Pekovic against opposing 2nd string front courts .. they should score at will! I miss that a little with Love + Darko but I'm still confident that is the best combination to put against opposing starting players.
Can't find anything more than an injury backup role for Ellington and Hayward on this team. Would ship them to the D-league where they would probably dominate (especially Ellington).
Would also not get why we would get another big man .. if only for injury backup purposes as with the other 2 mentioned above.
So .... what say thee? Am I giving too many players 30+ minutes? Would you try to give Hayward and/or Ellington 8mins? Who's minutes would you cut down? Let me hear it.
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I kind of agree with the concept that you have to give people more than 48 minutes per game
because it is almost a guarantee that not everyone will play 82 games. With that in mind, my rotations would look something like this (I give 53mpg at each spot):
1: Ridnour (25) / Flynn (25) / Ellington ()
2: Webster (20) / Brewer (17) / Ellington (13)
3: Johnson (24) / Beasley (16) /Webster (10) / Hayward ()
4: Love (32) / Beasley (16) / Pekovic (very rarely) / Hayward ()
5: Darko (28-30) / Pekovic (18-20)
- Start off giving Ridnour more mpg by quite a bit until Flynn can prove he is back from injury, then make him slowly earn his minutes and the starting spot. At the beginning, Ridnour probably gets 25-30mpg, and by the end Flynn will be getting 30ish. It feels weird giving Flynn only 25mpg. but that’s really all he deserves (actually probably more than he has earned) at this point. Personally, I’d still like to see Ellington play the PG in some situations.
- Use Hayward for specific matchups when Beasely is in foul trouble (no one else is really a big 3/small 4, Gomes type). Also give him 20mpg when your main guys need to be benched for lack of energy. I’d say we’ll see him in about half of the games this season, so his minutes will still be high per game he plays, but he’ll only get off the bench half the time or less.
- Give Pekovic a year before we expect him to play heavy minutes, has to prove he can handle them before I’m comfortable giving him too much over 20mpg… he’ll also see a lot of foul trouble, I’m guessing
- The biggest issue I see is our minutes at the 2/3. I’m still hoping we can package together some capspace along with a couple of these guys for a big name 2/3 on a team looking to reload (no names in mind). I don’t know if I’d prefer to keep Ellington or Brewer. I see Brewer benefitting more than most players by being surrounded by better players (on both sides of the ball), but his inconsistent shooting worries me. If he can shoot 35%+ from three this year and look comfortable doing so, I would ship out Ellington unless he can play some PG and shoot over 40% from range.
On a sidenote, I’m still hoping Kahn can call around and figure out if anyone wants to give Telfair a home and if not, then I’d prefer to keep him for spot minutes rather than just pay him to leave. Great guy while he was here and a good veteran (Yes, I consider him a veteran) to have around, IMO.
Fun exercise!
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Shoot, I started making it 50mpg...
so allocate another 3mpg in there for whoever you think needs more in your own opinions.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
my guess once Flynn is healthy
Ridnour(26)/Flynn(22)
Webster(32)/Brewer(16)
Johnson(26)/Beasley(22)
Beasley(14)/Love(34)
Darko(32)/Pek(16)
I don’t think Love starts. I think that Rambis wants him to be a 6th man. I also think it’s important to Beasley (on an emotional level) to start, but Love will sub in early and play big minutes. The only way Love starts is if Beasley starts at the 3.
I like this allocation
Buy I think Beasly will start at the 3 and Love at the 4. Both guys have shown some need for that confidence.
I'd bet a lot of money that Love will start opening day.
and for the rest of the season (barring injury)
Webster..
I think Martell will start at shooting guard and lead the team in minutes played. His veteran presence and defensive ability will be something of an anchor that this young team relies on.
I also think Darko will get more playing time than 24 minutes per game… probably 30-32, with Pekovic seeing more of a bench role. Who knows, though.
If I had to guess on the forward positions, I’d say Johnson and Love start, and Beasley backs up both of them. Allowing Beasley to play both spots is an easy way to solve the logjam problem that could be there with he and Love.
I hope this is it
Ridnour(28)/Flynn(20)
Webster(28)/Brewer(20)
Johnson(26)/Beasley(10)/Webster(12)
Love(28)/Beasley(20)
Darko(32)/Pek(16)
Love is only good in spurts. do to his lack of conditioning and athleticism
By mid seasons he looses his job to Beasley and Flynn learns to play PG somewhat and gets his job back
You have Webster...
…getting 40 minutes a game for us?
Going to loose it huh?
I think you mean “Lose”.
My lineup
Ridnour(22)/Flynn(22)/Ellington(4)
Webster(20)/Brewer(22)/Ellington(6)
Johnson(28)/Webster(12)/Beasley(8)
Beasley(24)/Love(24)
Darko(28)/Pek(16)/Love(4)
With all these interchangable players I see the lineup changing alot without obvious starters and bench players. I like the idea of an experienced PG getting the ball to Webster, Johnson, and Beasley while Love starts and Flynn leads more of a running group. Also given the right matchup I really want to see Love at center with Ellington, Webster/Brewer, Johnson and Beasley. I don’t see how any other teams could match up athletically and all those guys can shoot so it would be interesting to see them get down the court and finish at the rim or kick it out for an open look.
Ridnour (24) Flynn (24)
Webster (24) Brewer (18) Ellington (6)
Beasely (14) Johnson (28) Webster (6)
Love (30) Beasely (18)
Darko (25) Pek (18) Love (5)
Brewer, Ellington and Hayward can pick up some extra minutes when injuries inevitably happen. But Webster needs 30+ minutes to be effective, Beasely and Johnson need to be fed minutes at the expense of Brewer who is likely gone after this season anyways. If Pekovic and Darko both play well, Beasely will see less minutes at the 4 and more at the 3 and further squeeze out Brewer, Ellington, Hayward.
I think...
This is the closest one I’ve seen so far, including who starts.
Probably a few more minutes for Brewer, and a few less for Johnson.
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
I heard that Johnson wants to play SG
I think we need to run with Johnson there. Here’s mine. . .
Ridnour (24) Flynn (24) Ellington ()
Johnson (24) Ellington (8) Webster (8) Brewer (8) Hayward ()
Beasley (14) Webster (24) Johnson (5) Brewer (5) Hayward ()
Love (30) Beasley (18) Pek () Hayward () Koufos? ()
Milicic (24) Pek (20) Koufos? (4)
by 123farve567-612 on Jul 28, 2010 11:57 PM CDT reply actions
My ideal (which never seems to happen):
Ridnour (25) Flynn (23)
Webster (15) Johnson (25) Ellington (8)
Beasley (22) Brewer (20) Hayward (6)
Love (33) Beasley (10) Pekovic (5)
Milicic (30) Pekovic (18)
Ridnour is the better distributor with Flynn providing energy off the bench. Webster gets to start at SG because of his defense while Johnson provides bench scoring/shooting. Beasley and Brewer share starts at SF depending on matchups. Love gets his coveted starting role provided he hustles with Beasley starting at PF when matched up against the Rashard Lewis type PFs. Milicic anchors the 5 while Pekovic scores in bunches off the bench. Ellington and Hayward play spot minutes increased with injuries/their own improved play.
by SF on Jul 29, 2010 12:23 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
No love for Flynn?
I know he had an up and down rookie year, but all of his starting experience should be able to allow him to grow into a better player this year. No disrespect to Ridnour, but I think it should be something like Flynn playing 26-30 and Ridnour play 18-22 minutes. Flynn has a year of the triangle under his belt and I think he is a natural born leader. He will certainly turn in a better year once he comes back from his hip injury. Ridnour would be great off the bench and provide instant offense and above average point guard play. He reminds me of Lamar Odom in the way that Odom is so effective off the bench. Ridnour adds depth to the bench and showed he is a good guy off of it last year in Milwaukee behind Brandon Jennings.
9 man rotation is the way to go I think, and let other players get spot minutes for injury backup
Ridnour (24) Flynn (24)
Brewer (20) Webster (14) Johnson (10) Ridnour (4)
Webster (16) Johnson (16) Beasley (10) Brewer (6)
Love (28) Beasley (20)
Milicic (28) Pekovic (16) Love (4)
Ridnour has a history of playing a few minutes alongside another point guards with Jennings last year and Sessions the year before and I think that lineup will be used occasionally. I know several people have Webster leading the team in minutes played but I’d hate to see the development of Brewer, Johnson or Beasley hampered because there isn’t enough minutes to let them develop, so I’d keep Webster around 30 mpg, which is still more than he’s ever played before. Love wasn’t happy with his PT last year when he played just under 29 minutes a game, can’t imagine he’d be happy playing less than 32 mpg now that Jefferson is gone and Love is undoubtedly the best player on the team. Darko has always had a moderately high foul rate and averages 3.1 per game last year in under 26 minutes, he’ll be in better shape this year but I still don’t see him getting much more than 28-30 mpg.
Interesting to see a lot of people give Webster 30mins. Didn’t think he’d get that much. Guess it makes Brewer kinda redundant cuz Webster can defend AND hit the broad side of a barn..
Thinking back, I probably gave Johnson too much minutes early on. You guys are probably right giving hem 24-26ish with Martell picking up the difference.
Do think though that now that we have enough wing players Brewer should move over to the SF, even though Johnson has the physique to play SF, his skillset allows him to play SG.
Will also definitly be interesting to see the Eurobigguybattleroyal at the center. It’s literally just the 2 of them dividing the 48mins among them.
Also agree that Ridnour could play some minutes at SG but don’t think on this team. We have enough wing players (2-3’s) that we don’t need Ridnour in there .. or maybe you’re right and in certain matchups it’s an advantage..
Gotta disagree with you here.
Do think though that now that we have enough wing players Brewer should move over to the SF, even though Johnson has the physique to play SF, his skillset allows him to play SG.
http://www.82games.com/0708/07MIN8C.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0809/08MIN8.HTM#bypos
http://www.82games.com/0910/09MIN5.HTM#bypos
We’ve got three seasons of data showing Corey Brewer having better net production at shooting guard than at small forward. And if we didn’t play him at small forward last year, when our small forwards were Gomes, Wilkins, and Pavlovic, I don’t see why would would now that we’ve upgraded the position to Johnson, Webster, and Beasley.
That’s a good argument except that our SG’s last year were … Ellington, I guess. We started Brewer at the 2 because nobody else was any closer to being worthy. Brewer is a natural 3. Now only if we hadn’t drafted 3 more guys that play that position and traded for another, while neglecting the gaping hole at the 2. But they’re all just “wings” now I guess. FWIW our perimeter defense should be much improved on the “wing.” Opposing point guards are still going to have a field day though.
toro
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Jul 29, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Mine would be:
Flynn (30)/Ridnour (18)
Webster(25)/Johnson(10)/Brewer(13)
Johnson(20)/Brewer(15)/Beasley (13)
Love (30)/Beasley (13)/Pek (5)
Darko(30) /Pek (18)
What I'd do
November:
Ridnour (32)/Telfair (16)
Webster (25)/Brewer(23)
Beasley(15)/Johnson(20)/Webster(11)
Love(35)/Beasley(13)
Milicic(29)/Pekovic(19)
April
Flynn(30)/Ridnour(18)
Johnson(12)/Webster(16)/Brewer(20)
Beasley(15)/Johnson(24)/Webster(9)
Love(31)/Beasley(17)
Milicic(20)/Pekovic(24)/Love(4)
-Figurehead starters is a big theme here. Milicic, Beasley, and Webster start at the beginning of the year as a show of support and out of deference to their comparatively veteran status. Flynn starts when he returns, even though I don’t have a lot of hope that he’ll be better than Ridnour. If he loses his starting job, a lot of his trade value goes with it.
-I think there’s a decent chance Pekovic is more productive overall than Milicic. Milicic gets the bulk of his minutes starting the 1st and 3rd quarters against the opposition’s starting center, but Pekovic gets more playing time overall, except against frontlines that require more of Milicic’s defensive presence.
-Johnson works his way from 20 to 36 minutes, starting low because he’s a rookie and has been missing summer reps. He eventually replaces Webster as the starter.
-The wing minutes get kinda wonky in the April lineup because Webster gets forced to SG when he plays with Johnson, and Johnson gets forced to SG when he plays with Beasley (who himself is forced to SF when he plays with Love).
-Telfair, Ellington, and Hayward only play in the event of injury or blowouts.
+1
I like how this lets Johnson and Pek grow in to NBA minutes.
I also like how this uses some of the flexibilty this team has with the roster that allows people to slide in to other positions to maximize playing time.
I wonder if Darko can play more than 20 effective minutes (he seems to lumber after a few minutes) and if Pek can top 20 minutes because of the potential for foul trouble (love the aggresiveness he shows, but the refs may not). This leads me to think that Love may get more minutes at the 5 and Beasley more at the 4.
For the April lineup I can about 6-7 minutes in to the game Rambis pulling Darko and bringing in Webster. This moves Johnson to 3, Beasley to 4 and Love to 5. A couple of minutes later Love comes out and Pek comes in. Seems that Love will be our best bet to provide decent minutes at the 5 outside of Darko and Pek. I suppose the other solution is to bring Love back in the game early in the 2nd quarter at the 5 and let him feast on the opponents 2nd squad.
by hoopsfan1 on Jul 29, 2010 10:08 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
PG: Ridnour (20)/Flynn(28) ~ I wouldn’t mind seeing Ridnour start, but have Flynn take more of the minutes.
SG: Webster (36)/Brewer(12)~ Wayne Ellington just isn’t worthy of consistent minutes, IMO. If we have injuries on the wing, than fine.
SF: Johnson (24)/Beasley(16)/Brewer(8)~ Not a huge fan of Beasley at 3, but I don’t think we have much of a choice.
PF: Love(28)/Beasley(20)
C: Milicic (24)/Pekovic(16)/Love(8)~ I don’t think Pekovic is ready for 20+ minutes unless he really proves to be better than Milicic. I don’t like playing Love at 5, but I’d rather see minutes taken from the Europeans, than minutes from our best overall talent, Beasley.
Breakdown:
Beasley,Webster,Love: 36 minutes
Flynn: 28
Milicic, Johnson: 24
Brewer, Ridnour: 20
Pekovic: 16
Seems like a good distribution of mins for our young guys, the Webster/Brewer split will be interesting. Haven’t seen Webster much to know if he is clearly better than Brewer, only concern there is some of the stats on Webster is that he contributes much more when playing 30+ mins…
Flynn (30) / Ridnour (18)
Webster (20) / Brewer (20) / Ellington (8)
Beasley (12) / Johnson (32) / Hayward (4)
Love (30) / Beasley (18)
Milicic (30) / Pekovic (18)
Johnson get more min than Love, beasley, et al?
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Jul 29, 2010 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions
sure, why not...
He’s a rook, needs minutes- I’m assuming Rambus will still consider this rebuilding year with a bit less tanking. I would push 4-5 more mins to Love or Beasley if Hayward rides the bench most of the year, or if Darko needs to play a bit less.
I am a bit surprised folks think Ridnour will get more minutes than Flynn, I’m hoping Flynn actually learned something last year and will play better.
I'd chop 4 from Johnson
Add 4 to Beasley at the 3, take 4 from Beasley at the 4, and give those to Pek at the 4. So Pek gets 18 at the 5 & 4 at the 4.
Might have to shave a couple from Darko too, if fouls mount up.
So far here are the group averages
PG – 48.2 predicted minutes out of 48 minutes – Ridnour (23.1), Flynn (25.1)
Wings – 90.2 predicted minutes out of 96 minutes (5.8 under) – Johnson (28.2), Webster (27.9), Brewer (20.3), Wayne (8.8), Lazar (5)
Bigs – 110.1 predicted minutes our of 96 minutes (14.1 over) – Beasley (31.4), Love (32.2), Darko (27.3), Pek (19.2)
For the most part pretty spot on. I think the overage on the bigs (and underage of the wings) comes from most people predicting Beasley to play 14.5 minutes at SF. Factoring this in puts our bigs right at where they should be and our wings slightly over. For the most part, though, I think these minutes predictions hold up pretty well in terms of fitting in with actual available playing time per positions.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
Extrapolating off of this
Using each player’s per36 scoring numbers from last year (in Ridnour’s case I used his career average, and for the college guys I used their per40 numbers – same with Pek [which I also factored in Hollinger’s euro-translation stats factor]), this what we get:
Ridnour – 8.3 ppg
Flynn – 11.7 ppg
Wes – 13.3 ppg
Webster – 10.7 ppg
Brewer – 8.7 ppg
Lazar – 2.8 ppg
Wayne – 3.2 ppg
Beasley – 15.6 ppg
Love – 15.9 ppg
Darko – 8.9 ppg
Pekovic – 9.7 ppg
Total – 108.8 ppg (for comparison, doing the exact same thing to last year’s roster yields a total of 107.3 ppg)
If we were to use the ratio between the actual ppg we scored last year and the one predicted (107.3) and apply it to the total predicted for next year (the 108.8), our net scoring is predicted to increase from 98.2 ppg to 99.6 ppg (an increase of 1.4 points). To again bring up why I think we have a very good shot at 25 wins, increased scoring (however moderate) plus better defense = a smaller scoring differential, and a smaller scoring differential correlates with more wins no matter the personnel.
When viewing this team on a game by game basis, the lack of a proven ‘go-to’ scorer is going to apparent some nights. This is why having a go-to scorer is mandatory for success in the playoffs. Over the course of a season, however, the effect of having a go-to scorer is minimized (or perhaps better stated, is offset) due to regression towards the mean. What I am trying to argue, and again why I believe anything below 25 wins is a failure for this team, (and why 30 wins should be the very real goal), is that we have realistically adjusted the mean we are regressing to over the course of the season. That is, our offense should be just a smidge better (or no worse), and our defense should be significantly better (3-5 ppg in scoring differential better, as we were ridiculously atrocious last year). Of course there will be variations in the data, and using scoring differential to predict wins is quite variable – to an extent. Improving our differential by 3-5 ppg puts us solidly in the 25-33 win range based on analysis I’ve done in the past.
Things that will significantly impact our season:
- injuries. We can’t afford to lose Love or Beasley for extended periods, or Wes or Webster for that matter. We need their scoring (Love/Beasley – even Pekovic) and defense (Wes/Webster) over the course of the season in order to make this improvement in scoring differential.
- more wonky rotations. Rambis needs to be playing his best players and best combinations more often than not. He didn’t do it last year, he needs to do it this year. Simple as that.
- complete and utter locker room schism and melt down. This team has a chance to really develop some good chemistry, as there are a bunch of high IQ guys who should figure out how to feed off of each other. However, if they all implode and become selfish and me first and basically try to do their best Shaddy McCan’ts impersonations, then this team is done. They need to be the 13 Amigos out there, not the 2 or 3 Amigos.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
Ellington was one of our better players the second half of the season
And Love is much better than our 2nd best player so I would put it
!. Ridnour 28 Flynn 22(at the beginning)
2. Webster 24 Ellington 16 Brewer 10
3 Johnson 28 Beasley 16 (alternating with opponent) Hayward 6
4 Love 30 Beasley 16 Pek 4
5 Darko 28 Pek 18 Koufous (if we still have him) 6
don't forget...
Ridnour can play some SG too. I would like to see an occasional Flynn (when healthy of course)/Ridnour backcourt. er, if Rambis would let that fly.
"Can someone please help me out, who did wolves pick, doesnt look too positive around here"
by Rasho Revolution on Jul 29, 2010 10:53 PM CDT reply actions
Good stuff guys.
Also been thinking about how to keep both Love and Beasley content and maximize their talents. The more I think about it the more I’m convinced Love is best suited to play with the starters because as good as he is, he’s not a focal point. He needs good players to finish those outlet passes, he needs good players to score the second chances he creates with his rebounds and he needs other guys to score. You can also afford to have more shooters because Love recovers more shots … so he doesn’t need to have an inside presence on the floor.
On the other side … Beasley IS a focal point. Wouldn’t he be happy being the number one scoring option on the 2nd team? If he players with our 2nd team he has the floor all for himself. Great chance for him to show what he’s worth.
Seems to me that’s the best way for them to co exist … even though we still don’t have no other choice than to play Beasley at the SF a lot too just because they’re arguably the 2 best players.
I know this is rediculas
Why not start love at the 5 Beas at the 4 and then Johnson at the 3 Webster at the 2 and Flynn at the 1 and play a zone? I’m sure Flynn and Johnson wouldn’t mind that and it would somewhat cover up the size when we have that lineup in. Why can’t we have all the good players on the floor at once?
by running with Twolves (and scissors) on Aug 1, 2010 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Need Darko's size
I think the main thing that is needed at the start of a game is the size that Darko brings. This should help on defense and is probably most important when the other team has their starters out.
I can see a lineup like you mention once the Wolves make their first substitution though.
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