Wolves Updates 7/30
Love wants to be a leader on the team and more
From Jonah Ballow/Timberwolves site:
Jonah Ballow: Alright Big Al is out to Utah, which places you I would assume firmly at that number four position at that power forward spot for this team. What's your mindset now moving into the season -- probably going to be the go-to-guy for this team as far as an offensive player? And obviously we know what you can do on the boards.
Kevin Love: Well I just feel like I have to do that. I have to be that guy you know at the end of the game that we're kind of turning to and looking to make the shot or even make the big play. So I'm willing to take that responsibility you know I think our mindset of this team needs to be defensive ball club, that we have to be fast paced with all the youth that we have to run teams out of the building and I definitely want to become a leader as well and that's something that even at 21 years old I mentioned not using my youth or using my age as an excuse. But you know just want to become a leader and help as a leader on this team for years to come.
From Chris Mannix/SI.com: Predicting Team USA's final roster
Kevin Love, F
Colangelo & Co. have been high on Love for a long time. He's a gritty rebounder who can knock down the mid-range jumper, a critical weapon against zone-friendly teams. Love's also unselfish and won't lose focus if he is not involved in the offense for extended periods of time.
From Scott Lewis/GoldenStatePreps.com:
Former 2007 Gatorade Athlete of the Year winner Kevin Love had the opportunity to hand out this year’s award. It was only three years ago when he was on the receiving end.
"It was really different. I remember attending the ceremonies and just soaking it all in," says Love. "Now, I’m able to help these athletes and give them some advice."
From Charley Walters/Pioneer Press:
Ricky Rubio, 19, the Timberwolves' top 2009 draft pick who plays for Regal FC Barcelona in Spain, has been named the best young player from Europe for a second straight year by the Federation of International Basketball.
From Scott Howard-Cooper/NBA.com:
• In the last 13 months, the Timberwolves have drafted two point guards in the lottery (Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn), signed two as prominent free agents (Ramon Sessions, Luke Ridnour) and, in the ultimate statement of turnover, if it's OK to use that word in connection to point guards, traded away and traded for Sebastian Telfair. And they're still short-handed. Flynn could miss at least the opening month of the regular season after hip surgery, Sessions has been traded and Telfair may be bought out, leaving Ridnour and a potential search for a backup.
• It's not the Rubio selection that will come back to haunt personnel boss David Kahn, by the way. It's Flynn, and not because of the medical news. Flynn, drafted with the sixth overall pick over Curry, who went seventh to the Warriors, is the one that's going to hurt even though it would have meant the same mocking at the time for drafting point guards back-to-back. Rubio is an even better prospect now than at the time of the hypefest leading to the 2009 draft, so he's either a trade chip with increasing value or going to someday arrive in Minnesota as a superior player. Kahn will be vindicated on that one.
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Vindication
Kahn’s cup overfloweth with possibilities for vindication…..or continued ridicule.
by Rascal Flatts on Jul 30, 2010 9:13 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Using the word 'overfloweth'
in a sentece, in flow…. rec.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
i think you mean....
…“Methinks” using the word ‘overfloweth’.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jul 31, 2010 7:11 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Youthinks correctly
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Love can be the leader...
with the second unit coming off the bench. :)
by abcnerdd on Jul 30, 2010 10:44 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
i agree
I agree Love is a great player but I think beasley should be the leader here In a couple of years beasley is going to get 25 points 12 rebounds and 2 blocks a game. Plus beasley wants to win more than love does, he also has more talent than love I think.What do you think?
Methinks
that Love fits better as a starter for this team and Beasley fits better as a finisher. I find it laughable that Love feels like he will be the go-to-guy down the stretch when the team needs a bucket. Beasley seems to be a better fit coming off the bench with an instant offense mentality, and that mentality should also translate into him being the go-to-guy down the stretch.
Love is clearly referring to wanting the ball at the end of the game
He states that this either means taking a shot or making a play.
he’s saying that the offense can run through him and that he can make a play. It’s not laughable that you would get Love the ball in the high-post and give him several options with cutters and shooters on the perimeter. His passing ability can allow him to make a play.
I don’t think he meant: give me the ball in an isolation situation and I will go to work and get a bucket. It would be laughable for him to suggest that.
I would drive 10 miles to hear fucktwats sing.
by littleboxes on Jul 31, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Systems work wonders for orchestrating an offense over the course of an entire game, and Love will probably be the best player we have in our system. However, if it comes to the half-court in the final minute or two of a close game, the team is likely to scrap the triangle and run an isolation type play for somebody. Watching the Lakers in last year’s playoffs pretty much confirms this – unless they went to Kobe in isolation every time simply because he’s Kobe. The question then becomes, who on this team is best suited to score in that type of situation? My answer right now is Beasley – although, I could easily see Jonny Flynn getting a screen from Love to take the ball to the basket for a layup or a foul.
While I agree that Love is referring to wanting the ball to be able to make a play as much as score a basket himself, methinks that shows an indication of a lack of awareness regarding the reality of NBA final minute offenses. And this makes me laugh.
P.S: I love your signature, and just got done reading the thread that inspired it.
Here's my question
one I raised and elaborated on in a too long reply below, but it is this – how isn’t Love’s good (potentially great) FT drawing ability not a weapon at the end of games? It seems as though we keep thinking that this late game scorer has to be like Kobe – some guy who has the athleticism and size to get off his shot whenever he wants to. But you know what is so devastating about those guys, and something I wonder if advanced stats guys would agree with? It’s their ability to draw the foul, not make the shot. How many times have we heard about Battier’s brilliance in defending Kobe precisely because Battier played the averages of Kobe making a shot (45% at best) versus two free throws (80%). Right? Love doesn’t have to bigger or taller or faster than other guys at the end of games – he just needs to know how to draw contact.
per36 FTA’s last year:
Beasley – 3.7
Love – 5.8
Kobe – 6.9
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd question...
How many of those FTAs came from offensive rebounds. That’s really the issue that needs to be answered before deciding whether he’d be better on or off the ball.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 31, 2010 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
methinks
that Love gets his FTs in the flow of the game and largely by going for offensive boards through his superior positioning versus manufacturing them when he needs them. A driving player like Jonny can manufacture a FT, but that isn’t really Love’s game. The only two players I see on the wolves right now that can create their own shots are Flynn and Beasley.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 1, 2010 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
glad you like the sig
and understand your point about isolation plays at the end of the game. Others debate this point in the thread. Good stuff.
I would drive 10 miles to hear fucktwats sing.
Where do you get the idea that Beasley wants to win more than love. Seems a bit speculative
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jul 31, 2010 10:29 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Not sure about that
I haven’t seen as much of Beasley, but what I’ve seen didn’t strike me as a 25 PPG or 10 RPG let alone both. I think Love has proven himself the better rebounder, especially on the offensive glass 20 and 8 is definitely possible though for Beasley.
Personal feelings are against it too, I prefer a ‘team leader’ with passing skills and so far, Love has showed significant advantage there.
by newfrickinshow on Jul 31, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Leaders emerge, they don't become leaders by saying that want to be
The players will anoint one.
Problem is, if one guy says really strongly that he is the leader and the team does not want that, then no leader emerges.
We just gotta wait it out. Love could well be the leader. But among the things that leaders do is practice hard and stay in shape and improve a new facet of their game every year, the way KG did. It takes fortitude and an internal drive to do that, and it does not show itself in a matter of weeks, but rather years.
One of the things I liked about Al was he knew he was not a leader, and did not try to grab that mantle, he wanted someone else to step up. Yet he still worked really hard, and he continues to.
It’s difficult to say if Love or Beasley will make it in the leader role. But one thing I’m sure of, when Randy Foye said to the press after his 1st year that he wanted to be the leader, it meant he would never get there. You don’t become the leader by announcing it, others show who the leader is by their deference, body language, and who they turn to when things get tough.
Glad to see Love's abilities...
Getting recognized by third parties that have nothing to do with the T’Wolves or their fans. Certain people around here constantly point out his weaknesses, and never acknowledge just how much his positives outweigh his negatives
He is a true difference-maker as a player. He’s definitely not a #1, but your team is absolutely better off with Kevin Love on it. Watching him play tells you this. His historically ridiculous stats tell you this. Yet some people (who love to quote stats when it supports them) can only focus on how he’s “an undersized PF” and “unathletic.” They ignore his Rodman-like rebounding, his fantastic passing, his rare shooting range, and his ability to hedge on a Pick-n-Roll.
For these people, Kevin Love would be “awesome” if he were 6’10" without shoes. Since he’s only 6’8"without shoes, he’s “limited” and “blah blah blah.” Enjoy the career of Derrick Favors guys. I expect he will be dominating Hasheem Thabeet in the D-League a year or two from now. You know, because how your body looks is far more important than if you actually know how to play the fu@$ing game…
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
by mutleyil on Jul 31, 2010 12:19 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Love is fun to watch
He is a well-rounded player. I hope he continues to improve and helps lead the teams to many wins. But he is not Larry Bird, folks. Nor is he Kevin McHale as a player.
he really is a just much better version of mark madson right
now if we could get love to act like mark or Brian Cardinal off the court man he would a nice role player difference maker.
too be honest at some point maybe the team should move him I really don’t like his attitude and don’t think it going to chance
by KahningPups on Jul 31, 2010 4:18 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
jefferson attitude
He only had an attitude at big al.Big al is gone now and everything is going to get better
Maybe you should all chill
At this point, everyone knows what K-Love is and what he isn’t. Not too many people sell him short, and not too many sell him high.
So at the age of 21 and entering his third season in the league we know what Love is. I think there is plenty if film for improvement and we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg. Love is a team player and the better his teammates the better he’ll look.
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jul 31, 2010 10:33 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
K-Love is a fantastic player, but I’m not sure he’s a leader. Anyone here convinced he is?
First of, a leader doesn’t want to be a leader, he just is.
Second, a leader doesn’t pout when he has to come of the bench, he wants the TEAM to win and that’s all that counts.
Third, he doesn’t openly critize his team’s bosses/players because he, as an armchair GM, would have done differently…
no?
Yeah how about team Diva
really if he wants to be the diva while the rest of guys just work on trying to win that’s fine with me.
double-double
What are you talking about last year he had 32 double-doubles in a row,he’s a great teamate too He deserves to be a leader
As a pointed out here: http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/7/28/1593350/your-10-11-lineup-depth-charts#comments I definitly agree that he’s a great teammate. Still, being a great teammate doesn’t mean being a leader.
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 31, 2010 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not necessarily convinced
but then again I don’t really have much to go off either.
Point 1 – I agree, a leader is a leader, and not because they talk about it. But this is also a team in flux, and by Love’s own admission he’s a young guy (very young) trying to make that leap. The fact that he understands that what’s needed for him to do so is to grow up is very promising for us. I’ve been as hard on Love (Google searches – yes!) as anyone else here, but his continued statements about wanting to be the leader and be the guy who is put in control of the team at the of games is exactly what I want to see out of him. I have no idea whether he can do it or whether this will develop into ‘true’ leadership, but it beats the alternative of him backing off because no one takes him seriously, know what I mean?
Point 2 – see above about Love’s awareness that his own maturity is what needs to improve for him to be a great leader.
Point 3 – yes, and no. You can kind of interpret his comments in a variety of ways. Trust me, I have written at least two other fanposts trying to make Love the bad guy re: his comments about the team and haven’t published them simply because I couldn’t find conclusive evidence to back it up. Ya, he sounds sometimes like he’s laughing at the team and the accumulation of players at a given position, but at the end of every interview I’ve read or listened to he always comes back around to talking about how young we are, how much more athletic and long we are, and how the team needs to improve defensively – and as a team.
He’s a smart guy, actually, very smart. After all this time spent looking at this stuff the only conclusion I can come to is that Love is very aware of all these guys and what they can (and can’t) do, almost like a Corey Chavous type, and that he’d actually make a pretty decent FO type someday. I think he sees the talent on this team and he actually has no problem with it. He just wants his piece of the pie – he wants in. And you know what? I can’t blame him. There is no one else on the roster who, at this time, can be called a better NBA player. I just ran his numbers from last year in games he played 29 minutes or more (34 games) – and Love averages 16.6 ppg, 12.7 reb/g, and 2.6 assists. Those are some damn good numbers, damn good. In fact, in increased minutes Love actually improved upon his per36 scoring and rebounding numbers (+.2 in scoring and +.6 in rebounding).
I have spent a lot of time and energy over the last number of months essentially trying to frame the discussion and argue that Love is basically a super-glue guy, the best ‘between the cracks’ player in the NBA but no better than a 3rd or 4th best player on a championship squad. And I think I was wrong. The book has not been written about Love yet, at least not fully. We haven’t seen yet fully what he can do because we’ve never given him the chance (and Love knows it, hence his griping). This has been Al’s team since Love got here. Last year was a clusterf#ck and outside of Darko shouldn’t be used as anything more than speculative direction on how guys will be used this year (those that are left).
Kahn has made waves comparing Darko to Vlade, but the real truth is that Kahn compared him to the wrong player. Darko’s not like Vlade, Love is. Let me remind you – in games where he played over 29 minutes last year Love scored 16.6 ppg, grabbed 12.7 boards, and dished out 2.6 assists (to the likes of Ryan “Stone Mitt” Hollins, Pavs, Wilkins, Sessions, etc – in other words, not exactly your A-team of assist finishers…although they could be your A-team of assist missers I guess). The kid deserves the chance to start and play significant minutes and see what he can do. Seriously, what more reason is there not to at this point?
What are his weaknesses? Defense? Maybe, but the Synergy stuff from last year makes it seem as though he’s not nearly as bad as we often assume him to be. Looking at his 82games stuff does backup Synergy to a certain extent. At first blush it appears as though we were still 225 with Love in the game, but if you look at the on/off court splits you see that we were -562 with Love off the court. In other words, Love’s net +/ for when he was in the game versus not was actually 337. Al Jefferson was a net -249 last year. This broad suggestion of Love’s defensive abilities is further supported by comparing his production against the other team’s PF when he’s playing – per48 Love scored more (1.1 points), rebounded more (5.8 boards), fouled less (2.4 fewer fouls), dished more (1.1 assists), and was overall more efficient (+4.9 in PER and scored more while taking 1.1 fewer FGAs). I don’t think defense is really that big of a problem for Love, and even if it is look at what we’ve done – brought in a legit defensive center who can protect the rim and block shots, and signed a capable defensive backup center who represents a massive upgrade over Hollins in almost every way.
So then it’s his size, right? He’s too small, can’t get his own shot off. Look at this list. It’s a veritable who’s who of scoring ability in the NBA. There are some guys who have amazing abilities to get their shot off whenever they want to, but when I think about the best scorers in the NBA the guys I almost inevitably think of are the guys who are best at drawing fouls. I can even remember watching Karl Malone play the Wolves once and getting super pissed that they kept calling him a great scorer because all he was doing was just putting his head down and barrel towards the rim. Invariably he’d draw the foul and sink his free throws. As a kid I looked at this and said to myself, ’He’s not a great scorer – he just keeps driving to the rim and some idiot keeps fouling him. That’s not scoring (as in shooting baskets) – it’s just gaming the system!’ So what’s my point? Drawing fouls is every bit the scoring weapon that superior size and athleticism is, if not a greater weapon. Love’s never going to be a scoring champion, but he could realistically attempt 4-6 FTAs a game, and if he does that makes him a bona fide scoring threat in this league – not a 25 ppg scoring threat but the kind that other teams have to game plan around. I’m sure I’ll get a fair amount of argument about this, but a guy with his outside shot and ability to draw fouls COMBINED with his ability to not only see but also run the offense makes for a unique and potent offensive player. He may only max out at 18 ppg, but the effect of his 18 ppg will far surpass Monta Ellis’ 25.5 ppg.
What else is a weakness? He’s out of shape, or a bad attitude guy. Maybe, but honestly I think I could go out with this team and they’d be able to cover my athletic and size deficiencies. I always take Bleacher Report stuff with a big bucket of salt, but this article raises a very good point. If the team really does believe Beasley is a starting 3 in their system – which would mean Wes or Webster is the starting 2, in the near and long term you have an amazing amount of length and athleticism at just about every position. Let’s go through this for a second:
Center – Darko is huge and mobile. Pek is also huge and pretty mobile, but is super strong. Not an area of size/athletic disadvantage
PF – Love is short, perhaps, but also very strong and crafty.
SF – Beasley is strong, good sized for a SF, and very athletic. Brewer has great length and athleticism as a backup here.
SG – Wes and Webster have terrific size, length, and athleticism for this position. Lazar adds toughness and Ellington is very solid.
PG – Jonny is very, very fast and strong (come on Jonny! Figure out how to play defense!). Luke has decent size, more crafty. Long term though you’re looking at Rubio – great size and length and good enough athleticism.
In that lineup is Love really a weakness? No, he’s not. No one’s counting on Love to become the defensive anchor of this team – he’s not KG. Let me repeat – he’s not KG. He’s not going to be the best scorer, best rebounder, best passer, best athlete, biggest guy, best defender on the team like KG was. If this is how we’re going to choose to view Love defensively then there is simply no way he can compete. If we view Love as just one defender in the context with the other four guys on the squad, then he becomes a pretty decent fit.
Attitude? You know what – I’ll take a guy who wants to win and who believes he’s the guy to do it. He’s 21, very intelligent and observant when it comes to basketball, and absolutely chomping at the bit to go out and show to the world just how big of an impact he can have on a game and a season. Give him a chance. Out of anybody on this roster, and that includes Beasley, Love has to be the first guy in line to get the chance to play serious minutes and have the offense run through him.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 9 recs
Excellent and thorough post.
I’m still astonished to see someone saying he’s written fanposts but not posted them due to lack of evidence. Been on the internet long?
The framing question (at the top and bottom of your post) to do with leadership, and people’s reactions to Love’s comments when he’s talking to Jonah Ballow, are something Joseph Heller could be proud of. How would we react if Kevin Love said he thought Beasley was going to be leading the team now? We’d think something was seriously messed up, there. But he says he wants to be instrumental come crunch time, and somehow that’s wrong too.
No thanks. One word; inefficient.
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jul 31, 2010 10:36 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
trade for whiteside
Hassan whiteside brings scoring at 7’0,along with great rebounding, and tremendous,I mean tremendous shot blocking.He got three triple-doubles last year with Marshall.
Lazar Hayward
We took Lazar over him, obviously we don’t value Whiteside as high as you do.
by NorthernLights666 on Jul 31, 2010 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Love should learn from his Team USA experience
And realize that he’s best when he plays as a role player who doesn’t need to be the focal point of the offense. It’s natural for him to do that on Team USA with all the talent around him. He needs the same attitude on this team. He’s not the guy to be the focus of the offense at the end of games. He needs to find his role and dominate at it. That’s the best kind of leader he can be.
Let other guys be the offensive go-to guys.
Beasley has more talent in his pinky than love in his entire body
Sure Love may have some abilities, but let’s not confuse what he offers with what Beasley brings.
Remember that Beasley was two years running the 2nd leading scorer on a playoff team without any offensive sets drawn for him and being routinely taken out of games to make way for Udonis Haslem.
I suggest you check Miami Heat game logs and take a look at the stats Beasley produced and the opposing PF he faced during those games when Udonis Haslem was out.
Beasley is easily a 25/10 player if given freedom on this team.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9QcpxvdTU4
Kevin Love put up his numbers on a team that could barely win 15 games. Beasley as leader of this team would have at least won 20 games.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xM1PsCY-DOo&feature=related
That is a rookie Beasley merely shooting jumpers and also contributing boards. His offensive arsenal far surpasses that, but he often found himself “waiting his turn” on a Heat team that really didn’t want him because they had to cater to their franchise player. There is no one on the Wolves better than Beasley right now. No one. Instead of finding ways to diminish Beasley perhaps we should find ways to encourage him and remove all impediments in his way to stardom. What could possibly be the worst outcome from that?
Beasley leading the Heat to a win over Chris Bosh and the Raptors with 28/11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKR6suVprLE
Beasley leading the Heat to a win over Memphis with 30 points with Wade out. See how the Heat went to him every single time down the stretch when the game was close.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11sntJ0tfgs
When ever did Love lead the Wolves to a win in his two years on the Wolves? Love is a great player, but please…let’s not confuse what he brings – great role player skills – with what Beasley can bring to this team – franchise player talent.
by Dominate on Jul 31, 2010 11:30 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
According to one stat
Love brought us 12.46 wins last year in just 1714 minutes.
Sure Love may have some [outstanding] abilities, [so] let’s not confuse what [Beasley could offer] with what [Love already] brings.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Without him
we would have only won 2.54 games. Depressing thought.
"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please."
Mark Twain
Which should tell you
all you need to know about that particular stat.
by Dominate on Jul 31, 2010 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Of course
I was joking. Forgot the %
"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please."
Mark Twain
Probably true
if those 1714 minutes were filled by no one… or Ryan Hollins (which could possibly have been worse…).
I’m not saying we would have won three games as that is ridiculous. BUT, we did go 2 of 18 without him, IIRC. And one of those wins was a buzzer beater against the worst team in the league and the other was a crazy upset over the Nuggets (It’s not every game that Gomes goes off for 27 points and Wilkins gets 15/12/6, after all).
Apart from these two, we only had 4 close games the entire time Love was out (2 against the Clippers, 1 against the Bucks, pre-Salmons, and 1 against Memphis where Gomes went off again for 20).
Enter Love:
Timberwolves go 5/15 during the month of December.
Also keep in mind that Ryan Gomes dropped off the face of the earth sometime around here.
Once again (TA), no one is claiming we would have only won 3 games with Love out, but it’s not a stretch to say we would have been historically bad. Assuming under the best case scenario that Jefferson took all of Love’s minutes, WOW estimates that we would have won 5 more games. So eight total. Once again, this is absolutely NOT a stretch to say the Wolves would have only won 8 games last season.
Now obviously they give Love a little too much credit (otherwise this man deserves max money, which he doesn’t), so it’d probably be a lot closer to 10 wins, but that is still significant. And to claim that this stat is a bad stat (not aiming this particular point at Rico, but rather Dominate and TA) because you refuse to do the math and figure out the actual total and then explain some of the shortcomings is just…. weak and closed-minded.
So, TA and Dominate, how many games do you think the Wolves would have won last year had Love not played a single game for us?
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Only a slightly ridiculous question
as Love would have played 51 minutes per game last year, he also didn’t play any C, which means that he would have been playing all game at the 4 under this assumption (though his rookie season suggests that he does just fine at the 5 as well), with Hollins taking up the rest of those minutes because Gomes can’t play the 4 in this case, but WOW suggests we would have gotten 10 more wins if that was possible (again, you’d still have to factor in Hollins at the 5 instead of Gomes at the 4, so some of Gomes’ most productive stretches would have been wiped clean out unless Rambis wanted to play Gomes/Love as our frontcourt). Jawai and Pecherov would have been better choices and would have obviously played some more time at the 5 as well, but they are not much better than Hollins.
So under your assumption, Love would have to be able to hold up playing 51mpg for 82 games of the season without losing a step. He would also be playing next to a C who undid a lot of good that whole time (Love wouldn’t play as well being the number 1 option. Play him next to Hollins all game instead of Jefferson and his value drops immediately… not saying that Jefferson is that good, just that Hollins et al are really bad… and to be fair, he didn’t get huge minutes next to Jefferson anyways). And Gomes would have lost time (again, time where he was being quite productive and contributing more than his average suggests).
So once again, only slightly ridiculous, but 25 games before factoring in extra minutes for Hollins/Jawai/Pech and less minutes for Gomes. I’d guess this would lead to at least 5 less wins, but WOW estimates (obviously they don’t factor in how lineups mesh) about (not doing the math for this part) 2 less wins… so 23 is a rough estimate if Love gets all of Al’s minutes, only according to WOW (again, not factoring in the lack of a productive… even useable… C)
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Player Stats
These stats represent how the team performed while the player was on the floor.
The Net48 number shows the average +/- net points over a full game.
Position/Min/Net Pts/Off/Def/Net48/W/L/Win%
Kevin Love:
PF 41% -202 101.0 106.9 -6.0 22 37 37%
This is with Love being our best player by far.
I don’t know, but 82games.com tells me that with love in the game at PF we were giving up 202 points and won 37% of the time.
However, looking at the same stats for Beasley makes you wonder about these stats since some here will like us to believe that Love is a far superior player to Beasley.
Mike Beasley:
PF 50% +108 98.1 95.5 2.6 40 36 52%
My point isn’t about us being worse with Love, but that think of how much better we’re going to be with Beasley at the 4.
Anyway, I hope Love can play a complimentary role if that is what this team needs and isn’t hell-bent on becoming the leader if it just won’t stick. Personally I think he’s a great 6th man type of player who can give you some great numbers in spurts, but nothing to build an entire winning franchise around. Others hold more promise in that area.
Hopefully though Beasley can work at the 3 if used in the same way the Nuggets use Melo otherwise he’ll be a waste behind Love at the 4 and this team won’t win that many more games because frankly the difference between 15 and 22 in an NBA season isn’t worth it.
Of course the Heat were a net plus with Beasley
They were a better team than the Wolves. What should be problematic for you is the fact that based on the 82games stats, the Heat were a worse team with Beasley on the floor. Both offensively and defensively. On offense, the Heat went from 109.4 to 107.3 points per 100 possessions when Beasley played. On defense, the team gave up 102.4 points without him, but 107.3 points with him. So what in his production as the “2nd best scorer and rebounder” on the Heats really projects him as a positive impact player?
For all of...
functionally 0 minutes his rookie season, and 8% of the Heats SF minutes his second season… Beasley was a PF with the Heat.
And compare his stats at PF
With those of Haslem at PF and tell me who the better PF was on that team.
There is a lot of locker room politics that factors into how a player is used especially when the coach’s job is to keep Wade happy in order to not only resign him but also bag LeBron and Bosh in the biggest free agency summer of Riley’s career.
When you are done come and tell us what you think Love would have contributed on that Heat team.
Whether Haslem or Beas is the better PF is not the question.
The question is why the Heat scored less and gave up more with Beas on the floor (if he is such a force, as you argue.)
What would Love have contributed?
Clean the glass, outlet, draw the defender out to defend his outside shot, move the ball on offense, run the pick and roll with Wade…
I'm well aware of what those stats mean
apparently you are not.
dropstep pretty much summed it up.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
It's a bad stat because its meaningless
its just a vague formula involving way too many assumptions that doesn’t take into account all of the factors of a game. It’s not about my refusal to “do the math”. It’s about my refusal to partake in a system that is inherently flawed and at the end of the day tells us next to nothing.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
How many games?
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
So the Wolves
are exactly as good with Love as they are without him? No offense, but that doesn’t make any sense. None… At all. Like… how can you even justify that?
For a better laugh, what do you think their record would have been with Love all season and no Jefferson? 15?
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
A 2.54 -79.46
WL record would look awful.
I think this is the first time in history one man managed to destroy an entire city by himself. Even the Enola Gay had a flight crew.
:)
I record guarenteed never to be tied.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Jul 31, 2010 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Unless you're a lottery ping pong ball
"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please."
Mark Twain
Ha!
Remember that Beasley was two years running the 2nd leading scorer on a playoff team without any offensive sets drawn for him and being routinely taken out of games to make way for Udonis Haslem.
Could read…
Remember that Love was two years running the 2nd leading scorer on a non-playoff team without any offensive sets drawn for him and being routinely taken out of games to make way for Ryan Hollins.
Also, kudos for cherry-picking games where Beasley looks awesome. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy and am really high on him, but how about his game against Orlando (L) where he scored 1 point in 18 minutes? Or his other game against Toronto where he scored 2 points in 19 minutes? How about the 5 point clunker in almost 29 minutes against Utah? Or his 8 point, 3 rebound masterpiece against Milwaukee in 32 minutes of game play?
Wow. Dude has such an awesome arsenal of moves. So glad he’s ready to become our savior. %
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
I have to say, the first statement is more impressive than the second one
since that whole “playoff team” thing is kind of a big deal.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Ya
And I know you’re not an advanced stats guy, but Beasley had four other guys ahead of him in WS last year. I’ll put it this way – how many games would a team of Wade, Q-Rich, Haslem, Jermaine O’Neal, and Chalmers have won last year? Beasley wasn’t exactly the cog that made that playoff clock tick for them.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Yet...
Beasley was the 2nd leading scorer and rebounder for two straight seasons in which the Heat made the playoffs.
So...
the Wolves should’ve made the playoffs the past two years because was the second leading scorer and rebounder (or leading rebounder) as their second best player?
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
You can take it that way if you want...
But you can’t tell me that Beasley’s points and rebounds (both 2nd most on his team) didn’t help them make the playoffs.
I’m glad Love lead the Wolves to 15 wins, but I’m not ready to endure another mediocre season. I’ll leave you to your Love arguments. I’m ready for something better.
So
A lineup of Chalmers/ Wade /QRich/Love/O’Neal (Haslem) would have been worse off?
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Yes.
Love can’t play the 3 and won’t work well with Haslem.
Love can’t be a go-to scorer on the perimeter with the ability to drive past opponents when needed.
Love is a fundamentally sound role player, but he contributes nothing by way of a 2nd option to Wade.
beasley virtually never played the 3
what 8% of his minutes, as was noted above.
I would drive 10 miles to hear fucktwats sing.
Maybe not *the* cog
but certainly a cog. I don’t know how much better Beasley is than Love. I haven’t watched enough Beasley games to have a great opinion of him. But he did contribute to a playoff team – weak conference of not – which is more than Love has done.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
So what you're saying is
Beasley does more to help a team win than Love?
The upside argument I can see, the current production argument? Not so much.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
What's the point of this?
You’ll just make up some statistic to tell me that I’m wrong.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
I've used statistics
I’ve calculated statistics, but I’ve never made up any statistics. I’m just not creative enough for that. But forgetting that point, I’m really just curious. I know you’re not into advanced stats, but you do like basic per game numbers, and I’m just wondering, potential aside, athleticism aside, what the things are specifically that Beasley does to help his team win. I don’t see any evidence that he scores more, assists his teammates more, or rebounds more, or whatever. So, since you haven’t watched much Beasley, is it really just a matter of the Heats being a better team? Would the Heat have missed the playoffs with Love replacing Beasley?
Made up was the wrong word
I didn’t mean to imply that you fabricated stuff. I just mean that it seems like every time an argument is made, some new stat gets pulled out of thin air. It really makes a discussion frustrating when that happens.
But to answer your question, yes, I’m looking at the Heat being a better team. I look at the fact that Love was on one of the worst teams of all time and he couldn’t crack the starting lineup. I know about possible taking, Rambis’ weird rotations… but Love (and Big Al or anyone else) still has that stain on him. I think if Love replaced Beasley, sure, it may have been the same win total for each. But that’s not what happened, so speculation is difficult.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
So every player on the Heat is better than Love?
Quentin Richardson thanks you for your kind words.
Right, because that's even close to what I said
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
It's a lot closer to what you said
than you’d like to admit.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
It's not even close to what I said
We’re comparing 2nd best player to 2nd best player. Not every player to Kevin Love. I know you stat heads have to keep up the dogma somehow around here, but at least stick to the real arguments.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Second best player by what analysis?
If it’s by point +/-, RIchardson was their 2nd best player while Beasley was their 9th best. I’m not avoiding real arguments. To get to the bottom line, it is ridiculous that you compare players across two teams, best vs best, 2nd vs 2nd. 3rd vs 3rd etc.and give the nod to the player with the best record. This does not happen in a vacuum. It’s a stupid argument. At some point Wade vs. whoever has to impact every other comparison.
Second best player by observational
analysis.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Observational analysis
of a player who, well, I’ll let you describe it:
I haven’t watched enough Beasley games to have a great opinion of him
by dropstep on Jul 31, 2010 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're right
I don’t know everything there is to know about Beasley. I could be wrong here. Love could be better than Beasley.
I also said, “I think if Love replaced Beasley, sure, it may have been the same win total for each. But that’s not what happened, so speculation is difficult.”
I could be wrong. Are you willing to say the same thing?
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Wrong about what?
Find my definitive statement about Beasley vs Love that may be wrong and post it here. All I’ve asked is that you use something resembling facts or logic to back up your statements.
As far as I remember, I’ve had this to say about Beasley: given his lack of rebounding, he really better hope he can play the 3. I’ve probably had this to say about comparing the two: there’s no evidence that Beasley has been more productive than Love. I don’t see how that could possibly be wrong.
Just remember what was said here
when someone claims that I’m entrenched in a position
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Wins are by far the most important thing
Obviously, no one is going to say that Jordan Farmar is better than Devin Harris. But when talent levels are similar – like Kobe/LeBron – that’s when its fair to have wins be the deciding factor. Beasley and Love, from what I’ve seen, are close, so Beasley gets the nod.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Beasley and Love are close
However, Wade and every other player on the Wolves roster are not. The Wolves are looking for a #1 type guy to take them places. Beasley exhibits more of the traits that I think we want in a #1 guy than Love does. But even so, I’m not sure that Beasley will be a better player than Love even if Beasley is the #1 guy for this team.
Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric? That's ridiculous! I would never have traded Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric.
- Sam Cassell on McHale's decisions while running the Timberwolves.
Not even close?
But to answer your question, yes, I’m looking at the Heat being a better team. I look at the fact that Love was on one of the worst teams of all time and he couldn’t crack the starting lineup.
Well that makes AT LEAST 5 players on the Heat that are better than Love by the exact logic that you had just typed. And I don’t think he had any problem being worthy of the starting lineup, whether he played in it or not.
I think if Love replaced Beasley, sure, it may have been the same win total for each. But that’s not what happened, so speculation is difficult.
Once again, the same could be said of any of the other starters using that same logic. It still doesn’t make sense though.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Not to mention that dropstep
did the nice tactic of asking real question because he was “curious” and then upon receiving a real answer, used it to throw in another one-liner.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Actually, I was expecting a real reply
An actual aspect of their respective games that I could hang my hat on. Instead I get team won and loss records that have very little to do with the merits of either player compared to the influence of the full squad.
by dropstep on Jul 31, 2010 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fine, Beasley is, to my knowledge
a better offensive player. A better shooter. A better defender. A worse rebounder. Has a worse mental aspect to the game. Doesn’t hustle quite as much.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Higher volume
doesn’t imply that he is better.
Beasley (27.5% from range this year, granted 33.3% for his career):
Shot Att. eFG% Ast’d Blk’d Pts
Jump 70% .389 58% 4% 7.3
Love (33% from range):
Shot Att. eFG% Ast’d Blk’d Pts
Jump 52% .409 73% 5% 4.6
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Yeah, but I promised
I wouldn’t make up stats to argue with Tim.
Heh yeah
I hesitated to cite Synergy as they are technically “advanced stats” when they really are just literally a written documentation of how a player performs in certain situations.
Like most advanced stats, they are just writing down what somebody saw and compiling them all in the same place to figure out how a player performs on average. But obviously they are wrong because they suggest that Love defended many situations better than our eyes would have had us believe. He must have gotten lucky a lot.
Anyways, Synergy says that Love is quite the adequate man defender. So TA’s eyes (or assumptions, as he hasn’t seen Beasley play that much) lied to him about who is a better shooter (as the numbers suggest, they are extremely similar with an oh-so-slight-advantage to Love) and about who is a better defender (again, man defense goes to Love and help defense probably to Beasley).
I don’t even know what “better offensive player” is referring to. Love is probably better in most offensive areas that are important to a team game and not a one on one game.
Still, Beasley has Love beat in potential by a good amount (and I’m not trying to say Love has a low ceiling, just that Beasley has some incredible tools to work with) and I really hope I am talking about how Beasley is outperforming Love by next year at this time.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Errr
Way to go comparing performances for a playoff team with that for a losing team.
Of course Beasley had a lot of bad and awful games for the Heat, but he had a lot more great games than bad ones and brings to the wolves an ability and opportunity that hitherto did not exist.
We can dwell on his negatives and kill whatever hope we have in him or we could look on the bright side and expect that his good performances will only get better as this team can actually afford to give him development time, something he was clearly not afforded in Miami.
Is this really an issue?
Ultimately, both of these guys are probably among the team’s top 5 players, which means that they should both play as much as possible. Mainly, that means figuring out whether, say, Beasley at the 3 is better than other options or Love at the 5 is better than other options. Enough with these fucking deathmatches that pit two players on the team against each other. If one of them has to accept reduced minutes, it either means that multiple other players were better than expected or that either Beasley or Love isn’t as good as what people might think. Ultimately, we’re talking about 16 minutes in a 48-minute game whether they need to figure out which player to move from the 4 to another position, because both of them probably deserve around 32 minutes a game due to their talent and the team’s overall lack of it.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 31, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Are we seriously comparing
Love’s performance on two losing teams to contributions made by the 2nd best player, even though he was used like the 4th best player on a back to back playoff team?
Seriously?
Miami gave Beasley away and signed a guy for a hundred million dollars to take over his position. Don’t even try to play the “Beasley was the second best player on a playoff team” crap. If they played out West, Miami wouldn’t have even made the playoffs last year. Furthermore, an argument could be made that Miami wouldn’t have had to sign Bosh if they had Love on their team.
Ugh…my head hurts trying to understand this line of thinking.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
NO!
Furthermore, an argument could be made that Miami wouldn’t have had to sign Bosh if they had Love on their team
HA HA HA HA HA!
by Dominate on Jul 31, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
CH Hoopers really Rec'd this Comment?
HA HA HA HA HA!
Or does “Dominate” have two user names he logs in as?
Is just disinformation…
by Son of Gerald Green on Aug 1, 2010 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
it seems as if there is a trend lately that some really stupid comments and comments that compliment Kahn have either 3 or 4 recs. It’s almost been more of an insult lately to get a comment rec’d (and that’s not to say there aren’t some great ones out there that have been greened, but there are certainly better ones that haven’t).
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
True Beasley has not been that good yet
Love meanwhile, has played at a star if not superstar level. Beasley, a inch shorter 6"7 without shoes has a good engine. in Miami, people said he wasn’t the brightest of players but marijuna could have something to do with that (it is stored in the fat for up to 80 days and there are studies that indicate it lowers your IQ about 10 points. What Kahn said badly was that he thinks Beasley can do better if he stays off the stuff. I doubt Beasley can obtain Loves level of play at this point but I think he could become seriously better. He definitely could become the higher scorer. and he can play better D than Jefferson and in some ways better than Love. Love out rebounds Bosh can out pass him and his major talent gets to the free throw line while fowling less. Bosh though with superior height likely can hold the same opponents to a lower shooting percentage and can shoot over Love,
Koufos is interesting, I think he could be our Whiteside. as a rookie (19) he put up solid numbers in almost every way
if you check Basketball Reference. Then last year at the ripe old age of 20 he only got to play a little over 150 minutes. But that Rookie year there were indications he could shoot rebound and block shots pretty well on a 36 min basis.
by mr.sorbet on Jul 31, 2010 5:36 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
Some editing:
%Love meanwhile, has played at a star if not superstar level.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Hah, Love has played at superstar level
that’s rich. Dropstep, you want your hyperbole? Here is your hyperbole, sir.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Wow, the things we learn on CanisHoopus!
This is a new one on me:
""he wasn’t the brightest of players but marijuna could have something to do with that (it is stored in the fat for up to 80 days and there are studies that indicate it lowers your IQ about 10 points. ""
What this means to me is - smoking marijuana has about the same affect on a person as putting a baseball cap on backwards - except it lasts longer.
At least I can take the cap off.
but how do you do on the IQ test
after the high wears off?
Never trust any “facts” about marijuana as they’re produced by the kind of scientists who routinely prove that the earth is only 6,000 years old. Your IQ score will also drop ten points if you take the test while drinking.
And anyone on crank or coke will beat their high scores 10 times out of 10.
All IQ scores really prove is that you know how to take tests.
No autopsy, no foul.
I hear that about all standardized tests
And I don’t agree. Like all stats, it’s a strong indicator but not a definition. Also, as you’ve mentioned, there’s noise to account for.
2007/2008
Dwane wade plays 1900 and some minutes, Miami goes on to win 15 games. Wade averages 23 points and 6.5 assists of course he wasn’t any good and therefore has nothing to do with Miami being a play off team now. Tim Love is 21 and on the US team. If he stays healthy you will see the Stats are right.
"The Stats Are Right"
That should be the theme for you all
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
As a default position,
it’s far better and more reasoned than “the stats are wrong”.
I would say
“The Stats Are Helpful, if Flawed, But to Ignore Them is as Foolish as to Depend on Them”
by nja700 on Aug 1, 2010 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I will say this for advanced stats
They do a great job of sucking every bit of fun out of basketball. I fell in love with basketball because its a majestic game that involves the best athletes in the world. It’s poetic. It’s like jazz with a ball.
But now, you don’t even need to watch the games. All you need is an Excel spreadsheet to “understand” the game of basketball. In fact, watching basketball is a detriment to that understanding because of the “biases” that trick our eyes. Athleticism is all window dressing that gets us naive “watchers” to be somewhat excited about Ryan Hollins, when in reality, Ryan Hollins is the worst basketball player of all time because some stats and Dave Berri say he is.
People can’t even have a discussion about NBA players without having at least three different websites open linking to different stats and formulas. And since the stats are always right, there’s no room for disagreement anymore. It’s just “this way is right because the stats say it is” and anyone who disagrees with the stats is portrayed as something akin to someone who believes in a flat earth or intelligent design.
Then the people in favor of advanced stats will counter with, “no one says stats are perfect, they need to be used in tandem with observation, etc.”, but that’s not what most of them really believe. Because if that’s what they really believed, then why do many of them only use advanced stats in these discussions?
The real game of basketball, the one that I grew up loving, is being lost.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
How's this
MIchael Jordan killed basketball
His transformation of the game sucked every bit of fun out of basketball. I fell in love with basketball because its a majestic game that involves the best athletes in the world playing as a team. It’s poetic. It’s like a symphony with a ball. It has been replaced with a Jazz-with-a-ball model, where players take turns trying to dazzle with solo turns, and where individual technical wizardry is given top billing over harmony, melody, and tight group play.
But now, you don’t even need to watch the games. All you need is to watch sports center and youtube. In fact, paying attention to actual productive play is a detriment to that understanding because of the bias in statistical models that trick our cognitive abilities. Athleticism is the be all and end all that leads us to overvalue potential and ignore poor play, that allows myopic fans to be excited about guys like Ryan Hollins, when in reality, Ryan Hollins is the worst basketball player of all time because based on any statistical or observational metric. It allows fans to focus on one or two break away dunks and ignore the vast body of work that cements Corey Brewer as a end of the bench talent. And it leads to the unquestioned assumption that a highly athletic guy like Beasley should start over a much less athletic Kevin Love because, well, LOOK at them!
This overvaluation of athleticism leads automatically to a rejection of statistical analysis by fans for the same reason that others embrace beliefs in a flat earth or intelligent design, because those beliefs reinforce something personal and powerful within them, and there is an inability to question their own conclusions. Thus, Kevin Love can not be an exceptional player, because I understand the game of basketball, and it requires MJ-type scoring abilities to be an all star.
Then the people who oppose advanced stats will concede a trust in the most basic statistical analysis, such as points per game, since they fit into their belief about what constitutes winning basketball, but then bristle at attempts to refine these statistical tools to better understand a players actual contribution to what really matters, the wins and losses. An acceptance of these attempts to break down winning basketball into the contributing factors and parse them among different players filling different roles on the court would lead to a greater understanding by everyone of what constitutes value, and therefore, beautiful play, beyond tomahawk jams. One could look at Kevin Love’s astronomical WS rating, and look to understand where it comes from, rather than reject it as destroying something sacred about their understanding of the game. Their more careful analysis would help them understand that when factors determining winning basketball games is analyzed over thousands of games, rebounding, in particular offensive rebounding is one of the most important components, and that when a player can produce offensive rebounds at a rate several fold above the league average for his position, that is more important than shooting a few percentage points higher in FG attempts, more important than taking 20 shots to get 25 ppg, and certainly more important than looking good on youtube.
The real game of basketball, the one that values contribution to team success, has already been lost to isolation offensive sets, sports center, and video games.
by dropstep on Aug 1, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I applaud your effort, but question your reasoning
You don’t need a love of stats to appreciate team play or intangibles. In fact, stats reduce the ability to see the intangibles, since there is no possible way for them to account for everything that goes on during a game that impacts winning and losing. I enjoy watching athletic dunks and breakaway jams, sure. But I, too, dislike isolation sets, LeBron-on-five plays and the like.
However, your post relies on the assumptions that A) Statistical tools can be refined to better understand a player’s actual contribution to what really matters, the wins and losses and B) That advanced statistics say anything useful about the game of basketball.
It doesn’t take “careful analysis” to understand that offensive rebounds are important but it does take actually watching the games to know whether Jonny Flynn’s lack of assists are due to his poor passing/playmaking ability or due to his teammates missing easy shots/layups.
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
Yeah, it's not what would have written free form
but it was constructed from your post and meant to show, among other real things, that there are multiple ways personalize the argument in terms of individual loss. In fact, no one has had anything taken from them.
You seem to think that people who use statistics to analyze specific aspects of the game somehow enjoy the game in some less visceral way than you do. That’s not the case at all. Without the web I would enjoy basketball the same way I always have. I would analyze Ryan Hollins the same way now I did when I watched him play college ball, long before I ever argued argued with anyone online about basketball. I don’t hate his game any more or less now that I can look up his WS score. I do not like Flynn at all, and no comparison of his stats to the stats of other rookie PGs will change that. I will look to some advanced stats to see if there is statistical data that back up what I observe as a lack of contribution to good team play that would not necessarily be demonstrable in points, assists and turnovers. What is different is that I believe that these statistics can add something to my observation. Cause you know, I’m not always right. And I have biases about most players that make me a less than reliable observer. Whether it’s me obsessing about Flynn’s poor decision making, or someone else obsessing about Love getting blocked under the rim, we all have the tendency to focus on information that feeds our biases and ignore information that disturbs them. So, I actually use stats to expand my observations and question my assumptions. You give the impression of someone who will not have their assumptions questioned, and will instead open fire at the messenger. If a stat does not fall in line with your observations, it is always the stat that is wrong.
So, the difference is not in how we enjoy the game, but the extent to which one processes what they have seen after the fact.
You give the impression of someone who will not have their assumptions questioned
Didn’t I just say earlier in this thread that I could be wrong about something? How is that not having my assumptions questioned?
I think "Eddie" would be a good model for the Wolves' GM position.
To the last paragraph
You could get a pretty good idea by looking at a few stats in conjunction. TOV%, AST%, his teammates’ shooting percentages (broke down on 82games by category or just by glancing briefly at their 3pt FG%). Not available to us, but there are also plenty of places that you can see (Synergy I’m pretty sure has this type of stuff) how Flynn fares when he drives and dishes.
Once again though, you are making the assumption that A) People who cite statistics have never watched the Timberwolves lose by 30+ and B) That advanced statistics don’t say anything useful about the game of basketball (so untrue I don’t even know whether you believe what you are typing).
Personally, I use statistics for guys I can’t see very often to get a general idea and also for guys that I see a lot to challenge my opinions. I am quite often wrong about what I see with my eyes (And how many people aren’t wrong about how often Love gets blocked compared to A.Randolph?) and looking at stats can usually tell me that I might be wrong. Then next time I watch, I look for reasons I am wrong (often times stats can point you there immediately so you don’t even have to look for reasons).
I’d also say that it happens a lot more often that I watch a guy first and stats prove me wrong than I look at stats first to get a reasonable expectation of what to expect and the player proves me wrong when I see him live.
I know for a fact that I have never once said anything about how you could know all there is to know about basketball from stats. I am also pretty positive I have never heard anyone say that around here. You seem to want to imply that we don’t even know how to dribble a basketball, but I for one, sat through about 55 games of the Wolves last year (when I’m out of state, it’s difficult to watch them all, I apologize to everyone here) and plenty more from other teams. You can get a whole hell of a lot better understanding by watching the game than by looking at the stat sheet, but doing both of those together is also a whole hell of a lot more effective than doing either of them in isolation.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
I feel as though the advanced stats for readily tangible things such as scoring, rebounding, steals, assists, etc. will be very useful in forming a better understanding of the caliber of play of any individual player. However, I’m not certain how intangible things, such as the amount of hustle a guy shows or how quickly a guy can rotate on the perimeter to cover for a teammate that left his man to double-team another player, show up in the advanced stats. I’m a little skeptical about individual defense showing up in the advanced metrics as well. What observable factors go into the determination of some of those defensive numbers?
I ask this question because about a month ago there was a link on ESPN.com to a page explaining how Bosh’s defense wasn’t that much better than Stoudemire’s. The common perception of these two is dramatically different than what the numbers suggest. So I’m interested in learning more about what goes into those defensive stats to learn whether the general consensus is mistaken or if the people that put together the stats are basing their work on the wrong raw data.
Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric? That's ridiculous! I would never have traded Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric.
- Sam Cassell on McHale's decisions while running the Timberwolves.
For starters
I don’t think Bosh is a good defender… so I can’t really disagree with that. There’s absolutely no way KG would have ever let his team defend that poorly. And I’m not saying everyone has to be on KG’s level, just the superstars who complain about their teams instead of looking in the mirror. Lead by example, ya know?
Anyways, I hate advanced defensive metrics. Do I think they have something to offer? Of course. Do I think they have weaknesses? You bet. Tons of em. I think Corey Brewer (who wasn’t a great defender by any means, but certainly better than the numbers showed) is a perfect example of just about everything that is wrong with defensive stats.
The biggest issue is obviously your team not rotating to your man when you rotate off of him (Corey often rotated correctly, but a man never came to help him… that said he has to stop leaving his man so completely when he doubles the post). Flynn hurt Corey a lot here. It was rare that I remember seeing Flynn leave his man. Another huge issue is the fact that defensive metrics are taken from the guy who is playing the position opposite what you are listed. For example, Corey is listed as the SG, but defending Roy who is the SF (The Blazers went small one game with 2 PGs and we kept Brewer on Roy). So Brewer gets credit for Andre Miller (who IIRC, had a tremendous game) instead of Roy (Who didn’t do much of anything… but didn’t really need to). Another game he was defending Stephen Jackson who racked up a ton of assists but not much else while getting credit for…. don’t even remember, but I’m pretty sure that guy had a pretty well above average game too.
Those are just a couple of the issues I have with defensive metrics. To hear more, I’m sure you could go back to just about any post about Brewer from October through January and see me bashing defensive metrics.
So once again, do they hold value? Yes. Weaknesses? A LOT more than most stats,
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
Dwayne Wade
played 0ver 1900 minutes and averaged over 23 points and 6.5 assists in the 2007/2008 season and Miami won how many games!
I Want CP3 CP3 CP3 !!!
I’ll even settle for CP2.
We need a Point Guard with Jonny gone.
Please, Santa
Worried Fan.
I think he will
unfortunately be more like CP .00002. I heard it will be a one year guy. A Hart or Ollie type.
I have never
been more ready to watch the players play the game then after scrolling down to this point. Who’s with me?!
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Jul 31, 2010 10:01 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Amen
We’re officially in the dogs days of the off-season. When arguments circle around and go nowhere, and start to smell bad in the hot (soon-to-be) August sun.
Other than the August sun,
tell me again how this is different from the rest of the year?
please
The season cannot get here fast enough
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Jul 31, 2010 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions
To everyone who thinks this is a good idea
just stop reading things you don’t want to read :-p
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...

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