Props to Henry Abbott - Darko v. Shaq

If you haven't read it, read it. We've been waiting a long time for it, knew it was coming, and finally it did:

My point is not that Milicic is better than O'Neal. My point is that the O'Neal signing might seem like a big deal, but probably isn't. And I get that Milicic will be making more money, and therefore could be more productive but still poorer value. My point is really that even though it's a common technique, reputation alone is a lousy way to judge a signing -- it skews drastically to the big names, and away from the players with tarnished reputations like Darko. Meanwhile, they're actually pretty similar players! 

Someone in the national media has finally called a pig in lipstick a pig, which is to say/allude to the notion that reputation colors much of the supposed 'analysis' of signings and whatnot by expert columnists and beat reporters. In our case regarding Darko it's the triple whammy of a 'laughing stock' GM, our record as an organization who not only signed Joe Smith under the table but also chose Ndudi over Josh AND apparently wasted KG's best year (thank you to Boston for rescuing KG from us), and finally Darko's wherewithal to be drafted ahead of Carmelo, Bosh, and Wade. 

To be honest I hadn't really followed this bet very closely when it first came out, as it really didn't seem like there was much to it - it's nothing that hasn't already been discussed on this site. However, reading Abbott defend himself, and especially what the Fanhouse guy wrote, did make me realize that there are two aspects of this bet that I do find interesting. 

The first is the 'star' effect - the impact a transcendent player has on the production of other players. I know WP and WS and PER and all that stuff is supposed to factor it in, but the honest to god truth (in my eyes) is that transcendent players elevate everyone else's numbers around them, specifically the WP/WS type metrics. KG is the best example of this I can think of. How many no name guys did we find who suddenly looked great here? Dean Garrett? Oliver Miller (who while not great got some serious burn, and did alright)? Ervin 'Not Magic' Johnson? Trenton Hassell? Troy Hudson? It's almost as if transcendent players attract so much attention from the opposing team schematically that the effect on the transcendent player's teammates is one of effectively being bumped a notch or two down the bench - so instead of Troy Hudson essentially being a second or third option, it's almost as if the opposing team plays him as if he were the fourth or fifth option, thus 'inflating' his numbers. I have zero proof of this other than what my eyes tell me and my experience of playing on teams with (and against) a 'transcendent' player and how that completely reshapes the tenor of the game for everyone else. 

In terms of Darko v. Shaq, well the truth is that Shaq played on a team with Lebron and as the 3rd or 4th string big. He was playing against the number 9-12 guys in the rotation last year and predictably did very well against them. I expect next year to be similar, assuming he can stay healthy. Darko, on the other hand, started on a bad team and faced the other team's best competition. It'll be interesting to see how this works out this year in regards to this bet. Will Darko take a step forward? Will Shaq take a step back?

The second thing I thought of, speaking of Darko taking a step forward, is whether there is any commonality between Darko's productive years at Orlando and Memphis and our squad next year. 

Here's Darko's WS/48 for those three years:

ORL, 2006-07: .082, behind Dwight Howard

MEM, 2007-08: .006, behind Pau Gasol

MEM, 2008-09: .088, behind Marc Gasol

So what to take away from this - Darko is best as a backup center, right? Maybe, but the bigger truth is that he does do better when he gets extended minutes on a team not in transition (see his first year in Memphis as they were reshaping that team after trading Pau mid-season). Assuming Darko plays 30 minutes a night for 75 games this year with a WS/48 of .080, he'll produce 3.75 wins for us, good for third on last year's team (behind Love and Al). In fact, Al's WS/48 was .090 last year, FWIW. 

But I'm getting off point here. What interests me is whether there are any commonalities between the two seasons/teams he was productive and our squad this year. It appears as though some things that help are consistent minutes (1000+ minutes in the two good years, less than 1000 in the other years), a settled situation (that is, he doesn't do well  on teams that are imploding for the draft or in the process of trading away their best player), and teams that have a bruising collection of bigs and long three point shooters (maybe, this is conjecture though, but something fun to think about). 

Consider - Orlando in 2006-07 had Dwight Howard as their main horse and complimented him with Grant Hill, Hedo, Jameer, and Ariza. Darko played with the likes of Battie, Arroyo, Dooling, Redick, and Bogans. One could argue that Darko's numbers here are inflated due to the transcendent player effect, and that's valid. For my purposes, though, I would point out that Howard's 17.6 ppg and 12.3 boards/g in 37 mpg that season are very reachable by Kevin Love. Add in Pek and all of our long distance, lengthy shooters and quick guard in Jonny and you can begin to see a similarity in schematic conditions and role for Darko. 

In Memphis we see an even closer approximation. Marc Gasol as Kevin Love (11.9 ppg, 7.4 reb/g in 30.7 mpg for Gasol), with Hakim Warrick in the Pek role and 24.7 mpg. Length and outside shooting in Gay and Mayo with somewhat promising and somewhat suspect PG play in Conley. Gotta be honest - our bench this year looks far better than Memphis' bench in 2008-09. Of course, the Griz only won 24 games that year, compared with Orlando's 40 wins in Darko's season there. 

Of course, Memphis did win 40 games last year, and largely behind the dramatic improvement of Marc Gasol (8.4 WS) and the addition of Zach Randolph (9.7 WS). In fact, if I were to compare the Griz last year with our squad this year, I'd put Kevin Love up against Z-Bo's production (20.8 ppg, 11.7 boards, 37.7 minutes), and Darko + Pek up against Gasol + Thabeet (who together scored 17.7 ppg, 12.9 boards, and 2.9 blocks in 48.8 mpg for a net of 10.4 WS). And for me it's important to note that Darko + Pek together bring to the table much of what Gasol + Thabeet bring to the table - individual comparisons between these players are more difficult (rough Darko's like Thabeet and Pek's like Gasol). Anyways, beyond that for Memphis last year it was Rudy Gay (6.4 WS), OJ Mayo (5.6 WS), and Mike Conley (4.0 WS). That's some pretty good talent, but then again so is Beasley (4.6 WS last year), Wes (WS TBD), Martell Webster (4.4 WS), and yes, Luke Ridnour in a career year (6.2 WS, but a career 3.4 WS/year guy). 

So where do we end up? Is Darko going to bust again this year? Will he be 'better' than Shaq over the course of the season? Are the pieces in place for him to do well here? Maybe, maybe not. I do think Darko's in good system for his talents and surrounded by the kinds of players he needs to be at his most productive (a superior rebounder and stat stuffer in Love and a physically bruising inside scorer in Pek), which is in the defense and facilitating for others areas. Thabeet is actually pretty interesting to look at because he wasn't actually that bad. His WS/48 of .109 is clearly better than Gay's WS/48 of .096 or Mayo's .087. The major difference, of course, is minutes played. Thabeet's a better rebounder, but Darko was very similar in terms of TRB% to Thabeet while Darko was in Memphis and Orlando and ostensibly focusing on defense.

And to me, that's probably the key for Darko this year - having a role, embracing it, and getting consistent minutes out on the floor in it. Orlando and Memphis had a clear role for him, and gave him minutes. Detroit and NY didn't. Consider this - in all of the time Darko spent in Detroit and NY (roughly three seasons), he played only 10 more minutes in total than he did for us last year. Let me repeat - in 24 games with us last year he played only 10 fewer minutes than in the roughly three seasons he spent in Detroit and NY! With Orlando and Memphis Darko produced 6.5 wins, while with Detroit and NY he produced -.2 wins. Dude has a good chance of being a solid, solid player for us this year.