2009 -2010 Minnesota vs. New Jersey: Small Forwards
by TimAllen on Sep 28, 2010 5:56 PM CDT
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The two worst teams in the league last season - Minnesota and New Jersey - had many things in common. Lots of losing. A young and skilled big man (Love/Lopez). A building without many people in it. Another area that we had in common was the small forward position, where both teams received abysmal production. So who was worse? And just how bad was it?
The numbers are below the fold:
Production by Position
Below, I've included the stats for Team Production and Opponent Production for Minnesota, New Jersey - and just to compare to a team with a star small forward - Cleveland.
Team Production
| POS | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| MN |
13.6 | .468 | 3.2 | 21% | 7.0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 15.1 | 11.5 |
| NJ |
14.5 | .469 | 3.3 | 32% | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 16.2 | 11.9 |
| CLE | 19.6 | .538 | 8.5 | 32% | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 27.6 | 26.3 |
Opponent Production
| Position | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| MN | 17.8 | .514 | 5.0 | 28% | 7.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 17.9 |
| NJ |
16.1 | .515 | 5.2 | 35% | 8.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 20.7 | 18.3 |
| CLE | 16.1 | .504 | 4.1 | 28% | 6.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 19.4 | 15.2 |
Net Production
| Position | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| MIN | -4.2 | -.046 | -1.9 | -7% | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -7.4 | -6.4 |
| NJ | -1.5 | -.046 | -1.9 | -3% | -1.8 | -1.3 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -4.5 | -6.4 |
| CLE | 3.5 | +.034 | 4.4 | 4% | 1.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 8.2 | +11.2 |
At the small forward position, the Wolves averaged only 15.1 points on 13.6 attempts per game. Only 21% of those attempts were from inside or close to the hoop. Compare this to our best position on the team last season - power forward - where we averaged 22.7 points on 5.6 attempts per game with 40% of those shots being from inside/close to the hoop.
Conversely, on defense, we were not any better. We gave up 22.5 points per game - again, our worst position on the team. This makes our net production from the small forward position -7.4. Our center position was even and our point guards actually had a positive net production amount of 0.5.
Compare this to New Jersey, the team with the worst record in the league. New Jersey's small forwards averaged 16.2 points per game (a full point higher than the Wolves) with 32% of their shots being from inside/close to the hoop. They only gave up 20.7 points per game for a net loss of 4.5 points.
Players on Offense
Here are the offensive per-48 minute stats for players who logged more than 1% of the team's minutes at SF for the 2009-2010 season.
Minnesota
| Name | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| Wilkins | 11.3 | .464 | 4.1 | 29% | 7.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | .7 | 4.3 | 13.8 | 13.3 |
| Gomes | 14.3 | .497 | 2.3 | 13% | 6.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | .2 | 2.7 | 16.1 | 12.2 |
| Brewer | 15.9 | .438 | 7.4 | 35% | 6.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | .7 | 6.3 | 18.8 | 11.9 |
| Pavlovic | 15.5 | .439 | 1.6 | 15% | 6.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | .3 | 4.8 | 14.2 | 6.5 |
For all the Corey Brewer fans out there, it's a little disheartening to know that he performed worse than Damien Wilkins last season and did not significantly outplay Ryan Gomes - at least when he was at the 3 spot. It's also jarring to see how epically bad Sasha Pavlovic's season was at the small forward spot.
New Jersey
| Name | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| T-Will | 18.2 | .434 | 4.1 | 37% | 10.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | .4 | 3.6 | 18.8 | 14.5 |
| CLee |
17.5 | .500 | 7.5 | 32% | 6.8 | 1.4 | .7 | .7 | 3.6 | 23.5 | 21.3 |
| Sims |
13.4 | .484 | 5.2 | 16% | 7.8 | .9 | 3.9 | .0 | 4.7 | 17.2 | 9.2 |
| CDR |
15.1 | .477 | 4.2 | 44% | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | .5 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 13.6 |
| Hayes | 14.4 | .508 | 1.0 | 9% | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | .3 | 4.0 | 15.4 | 10.4 |
| Hassell | 9.4 | .429 | 2.6 | 35% | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | .4 | 3.8 | 10.1 | 7.6 |
Only Courtney Lee could be described as having a very good season at small forward for the Nets. If you ranked the players of both teams by PER - which is not definitive but is interesting to review - the Nets have the top 3 small forward performers (Lee, Williams and Douglas-Roberts) with Sasha Pavlovic coming in as the worst small forward on the worst two NBA teams from last season.
Players on Defense
Here are the defensive per-48 minute stats for players who logged more than 1% of the team's minutes at SF for the 2009-2010 season.
Minnesota
| Name | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| Wilkins | 17.8 | .519 | 5.3 | 27% | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | .6 | 3.6 | 23.0 | 18.7 |
| Gomes | 17.3 | .533 | 4.4 | 29% | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | .6 | 3.3 | 22.1 | 17.8 |
| Brewer | 18.4 | .559 | 6.0 | 34% | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | .7 | 4.5 | 26.2 | 22.9 |
| Pavlovic | 18.1 | .448 | 5.3 | 26% | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 20.4 | 13.8 |
New Jersey
| Name | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| T-Will | 17.9 | .465 | 5.2 | 36% | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | .6 | 3.2 | 20.8 | 17.6 |
| CLee | 15.7 | .352 | 7.1 | 43% | 9.6 | 2.5 | 3.2 | .7 | 3.6 | 17.5 | 14.5 |
| Sims |
17.2 | .413 | 6.9 | 15% | 6.5 | 2.6 | 3.4 | .4 | 5.2 | 19.0 | 8.1 |
| CDR | 14.3 | .508 | 5.6 | 40% | 8.3 | 4.1 | 2.3 | .8 | 3.3 | 19.0 | 17.5 |
| Hayes | 17.1 | .571 | 4.0 | 35% | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | .4 | 2.1 | 22.6 | 20.5 |
| Hassell | 15.5 | .555 | 5.4 | 32% | 8.6 | 4.4 | 3.0 | .8 | 3.3 | 21.5 | 18.0 |
Brewer as a defensive stalwart? Not at the small forward position. He gave up the most points and the most rebounds of anyone at the 3 spot on a per-48 minute basis. Meanwhile, the worst player at the 3 on offense - Pavlovic - appears to have been our top defender from that same position for the Wolves. For the Nets, Jarvis Hayes allowed opponents an eFG% of over 57% and may have been the worst defender at the 3 for New Jersey.
Beasley and Webster
Obviously, Wesley Johnson and Lazar Hayward have to be omitted from this post, but here is how Michael Beasley and Martell Webster performed at the 3 spot last season:
Offense:
| Name | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| B Easy |
21.5 | .403 | 6.1 | 25% | 10.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | .7 | 3.7 | 22.2 | 14.9 |
| MWebs | 15.1 | .505 | 3.6 | 24% | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | .8 | 3.6 | 18.2 | 14.0 |
Defense:
| Name | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| B Easy |
17.9 | .504 | 7.0 | 21% | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | .7 | 4.5 | 23.9 | 18.8 |
| MWebs | 16.1 | .533 | 3.9 | 30% | 6.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | .7 | 3.2 | 20.0 | 16.2 |
Again, using PER as a measurement, Beasley and Webster would have been the best and second best small forwards on the Wolves from an offensive standpoint.. Courtney Lee and Terrence Williams scored better on New Jersey, however.
On the other side of the ball, players were less productive against Gomes, Wilkins and Pavlovic than they were against Beasley. Webster was a better defender at the 3 than all but Pavlovic on the Wolves side, but Courtney Lee and Bobby Simmons also held opponents to worse numbers than Martell.
Based upon last year's numbers, it does not seem as though the team is making a substantial improvement at the 3 position. If the players improve, however, and Wes Johnson (and/or Lazar Hayward) proves to be productive as a rookie, we could see our worst position suddenly bolstered.
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When you start sifting Woof wings, Corey Brewer at the three starts to seem more and more remote.
He’s never performed particularly well there, despite the half-overt accepted wisdom saying he should eventually move to that position. Defensively he’s outmuscled by everyone but maybe Durant; when the Wolves face a hard-nosed star-ish SF they typically don’t even try to shift Brewer over. It’s been multiple coaching staffs now that have decided to play him at the two instead.
And then Humdinger’s video the other day at Media Day, too – you guys asked about his weight, and he said he didn’t think it was a big deal to be going at about 190 because people aren’t posting him up. Shooting forwards would. It doesn’t look like he has any intention of playing on them right now, except with a good specific matchup.
(Might we see Brewer matching up more on opposing PGs defensively in spots this year, given the Wolves’ sudden wing talent and no defensive PG type around? We all remember the brutal game on Tony Parker two years ago early – but that means there’s precedent for at least trying it. If Corey’s a disruptive defender from the bench, why not use him that way for short stretches?)
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
Barely related to this
but you’ve just furthered my dream of Wayne Ellington as a PG in our offense for me. Picture this:
PG: Wayne
SG: Corey
SF: who cares
PF: you get the point
On offense, Wayne is the PG, but on defense Brewer defends the PG. Awesome. Now we’ve just got to get Wayne more suited for full court pressure situations.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
You want to talk about *my* pet dreams?
You just said the words “full court pressure.”
I love full court pressure. Some of the best ball I ever saw was from those Sonics teams with Gary Payton and guys like Nate McMillan applying the pressure all game long, at least in the regular season. The refs jobbed those teams at playoff time, but I loved that style. To be able to turn that on once in a while is an awesome defensive weapon to have in your back pocket. I want some of that.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
I'd love it too
but we don’t quite have all the pieces yet. I think we do on the wings, especially with Brewer and Wes Johnson. Add Rubio into the mix and now we’re almost there. Had Hollins stuck around, I actually thought the one useful thing he could do was to be included in a full court press package – but that’s it. You need a really long, athletic guy to pressure the inbound passer or trap guys and Hollins could do this. Right now we don’t have the frontcourt athleticism and footspeed at C/PF to pull off a full court press. Darko, Pek, Love, and Beasley just don’t seem like press guys and you really need four or five guys out there that can do it.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 28, 2010 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow
I had to click on your name to make sure someone didn’t make a fake TimAllen name with two capital I’s instead of L’s. Funniest part is, I just went to 82games to support some info I was going to type below and it wouldn’t let me enter… even the internet is confused!
There were stats in here… A lot of them. Granted I absolutely despite opponent PER for reasons I have enumerated many a time already.
Anyways, I assume you meant 15.6 attempts at the PF position and not 5.6?
The most notable thing I took from this (and I’ve thought about this before, so mostly it just kinda reminded me of that since it really wasn’t about this at all) is that we take far too many outside shots. And by outside I don’t mean 3pters unfortunately. I think a lot of this was due to a) Al Jefferson clogging the lane b) our wings being bad at both shooting from range and at driving c) our PG play being awful at creating offense, and again, even worse with Al in the lane d) Darko shooting a lot of really dumb 15 footers and e) Hollins have a pretty nice turnaround jumper (might have been his greatest skill besides jumping and height). I’m sure I missed some reasons, but I think outside of defense, the thigns this team needs to improve most are 3pt shooting and getting into the lane. I was going to try to prove or disprove this by using 82games, but as I previously mentioned, TimAllen destroyed it. So… we’ll have to wait on those numbers.
Nice post, though!
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
22.5 pts on 5.6 shots would be insane
That’s like hitting a three and getting the and one every time. Got to be a record.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 28, 2010 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, 15.6. My bad.
And I had trouble getting the columns to line up properly. Oh well. It was an effort.
(Major clunkiness on a sports site.)
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
We need an interface that can easily take tables.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
One little number that stands out for me:
It sure looks like Beasley took a higher rate of shots (in whatever slice of time we want to use) than anyone else on this SF list, on either awful team (or, what the heck let’s toss it in there, on LeBron James’s Cleveland).
If these are all per-48 minutes above (I can’t check 82games either, it’s maybe down?), it looks like he puts up 3 more shots than anyone else except, uhm, the collective group of Cleveland SFs last year – and even there he tried 21.5 FGA/48 to the Cavs’ 19.6.
If we’re wondering whether he’s going to be comfortable with a green light from SF, that’s at least a hint, you have to think…. The other reason I wanted to check 82games was to see how many attempts he jacked up when they recorded him at PF. Is Mike Beasley especially keen to take the “shooting” part of “SF” to heart?
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
Question
How many minutes did Beasley play at the 3 last year? I thought the small sample size caveat applied here. Just wondering because I can’t remember.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Sep 28, 2010 10:04 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think he played there too often. They tried it at one point I think, but it wasn’t really working out.
There’s a huge Beasley homer on NBA FanVoice who does everything he possibly can to defend Beasley, and says he is a PF. He even uses all kinds of stats to prove that he is one of the best PFs in the game (especially at his age) and that he was one of the best defenders on the Heat and all kinds of other stuff. It’s amazing what you can do with sats.
Exactly what I wanted to glance at 82games for.
Down still this morning.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
They are all per-48 mins
I thought adding Cleveland might be a little irrelevant, but I wanted to see how these two terrible teams compared to a good one to provide a little context.
LBJ's an interesting comparison because he's *so* ball-dominant.
LeBron and Carmelo were almost as possession-hungry as Dwyane Wade last year. Those three players were tops in the league. Next to Damien Wilkins and Sasha at the same position, they should do just about everything much more. And given that Beasley was on the same roster with Wade, you wouldn’t think he’d be cranking up shots more than LeBron in any circumstance. But at SF apparently he did?
Beasley as SF: 21.5 FGA/48 (despite not shooting that well at all)
Cleveland SFs: 19.6
Denver’s SFs: ?
So when were those SF minutes for Beas? I just looked at all Beasley’s highest FGA games from last year on his game log, half-expecting to see him and Udonis Haslem in the starting five together when Wade was out or something. The starting lineups in those games, anyway, all look like Beasley and a center with three guards.
Be interesting to compare his play at PF and SF this way…. Did Michael B. get a little too “Easy” at the three? Did he channel his inner Pecherov? How different was he at PF? (How many more minutes are we talking about?)
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
It's up now
Beasley played 8% of Miami’s SF minutes last year, which if I’m doing my math right means that he played approx. 320 minutes there. I’d apply the small sample size caveat.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
Link below
What’s interesting is that Beasley shot the same number of FGAs per 48 at PF as he did SF, and was actually considerably better/more productive as a PF than as a SF. To be honest, I’m not sure what to make of this.
The standard question that comes with Beasley playing SF is whether he’s fast enough to guard them. However, in trying to explain why his PF production is so much better I would argue that it’s because he’s faster and more athletic than the guys he’s going against, right? But then I wonder how he’d do against PFs defensively because of the size mismatch, and so I think he should do better against SFs offensively. In the end I just confuse myself and again wonder – why did he do so much better against PFs vs. SFs?
Ultimately, given that it’s only 320 minutes of time at SF, I have to believe that much of that time at that position was dictated by two things – fouls and specific matchups/lineups. First, if whoever else Miami had playing SF was in significant foul trouble, Beasley may have been one of the guys asked to move over. And second, I don’t get the impression that Miami ever viewed Beasley as one of the guys they’d move to SF for a game because of matchups, but I would certainly believe that they’d move him there if they wanted to put Haslem in at PF for defensive purposes and yet still have a little shooting on the floor (or something like that).
Again, I don’t know. This is just my stream of consciousness thinking about it right now. The only other thought that I had was about the power balance between the WC and the EC at those positions. The WS is stacked at PF. Only two of the top ten scorers at PF last year played in the EC, versus 5.5 of the top ten scoring SFs played in the EC (Caron Butler started in Washington and moved to Dallas midway through the season). I know it’s a rudimentary way to analyze it by just focusing on scoring, but perhaps there’s something to the idea of playing Beasley against WC SFs. The top (by scoring) WC SFs last year were KD, Carmelo, Maggette, Butler, and Ariza. The next guy after Ariza, Richard Jefferson, headlines a host of guys who scored 12.3 ppg or less while playing approx. 30 mpg. In other words, Beasley matches up far better against those guys than he does going against Lebron, Granger, Luol Deng, Paul Pierce, etc. multiple times a year.
Food for thought.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
by biggity2bit on Sep 29, 2010 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Q-Rich
With Wade being more of a slashing SG it makes sense that Miami would want a floor spacing, low usage wing to compliment him. Beasley next to Wade as a SF just doesn’t seem to fit as nicely as a SF that can really shoot the ball from beyond the arc. And it worked. Richardson had a career year in terms of 3-pt shooting % and Miami had a very solid record.
On the Wolves, we now have Webster and Ridnour to help space the floor on the perimter, along with Love and Tolliver at the 4, meaning the SF position doesn’t have to be an elite shooter. Beasley can work from the mid-range area on down to the rim in our offense and the defense will need to be concerned about collapsing on him.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 29, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Huh.
I always had Brewer pegged as a SF. I was a bandwagon Florida fan a while back and I really enjoyed watching him play. His offensive game and length led me to believe he was a true SF. I never realized his weight was such a problem. My problem with him playing SG is he doesn’t have a very consistent shot, and if you don’t have a great outside shooter at SF (see what the Suns are going to do with Jared Dudley and Josh Childress) it really hurts your offense.
Brewer is a wing
that’s making the transition from college SF to NBA SG. Last season he played the vast majority of his minutes as a SG.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 28, 2010 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I know he played there.
I just thought he should be playing SF based on his offensive skillset.
I also thought that might have a had a bit to do with a lack of talent at SG.
The problem
is defensively he can easily get beat up by the bigger 3’s in the league because he’s so skinny and he has no length advantage. People like to say he’s long, but he’s really not (at least not for a 3). He has a fairly small wingspan and he looks long because he’s so skinny. As a SG, he has decent length and he’s less likely to get posted up.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 28, 2010 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions
A quick fix?
A big 2 who can guard 3s :)
Did anyone say Wes Johnson or Martell Webster?
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
I just read this
nice that I post a similar theme a day later….
by Breaking Ankles on Sep 29, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
He isn't concerned with his weight as a SG
because he said they don’t post up on him as a SG but if he were gaurding the 3 more he may run into trouble with larger SF running him over.
by Breaking Ankles on Sep 29, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
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