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Hypothetically Speaking

Carmelo Anthony trade rumors swirl anew following the "death" of the possible 4-team trade (which did NOT work when I tried putting it into the ESPN trade machine for some reason):

Denver Nuggets receive: Derrick Favors, Andrei Kirilenko, New Jersey's 2011 1st round pick (presumably unprotected), and a 1st round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-7 protected in 2012 and 2013, top-6 protected in 2014 - after which it is converted into 2nd round picks in 2014 and 2016);

Utah Jazz receive: Boris Diaw;

New Jersey Nets receive: Carmelo Anthony;

Charlotte Bobcats receive: Devin Harris.

According to sources "close to the deal" the sticking point was not Anthony's willingness to sign a contract extension with the Nets, but rather the Nuggets desire to not take on the extra salary and accompanying luxury tax.  The deal would saddle the Nuggets with approximately $10M in extra expenses this season.

Star-divide

Throughout all of the trade rumors the indication is that Denver would like to get a young front line player (C or PF) with star potential, two 1st round picks, and salary cap relief for Anthony.  However, given the recent turn of events it seems that they also don't want to add more salary this season to make it happen.  As the trade deadline approaches it will be interesting to see if they relax a bit on their demands.

Personally, I could see the following scenario unfolding by the all-star break:

Denver suffers from bad chemistry because of Anthony's reluctance to be there (similar to what happened to the Wolves in 2004-05 when Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell brought down the team because McHale refused to give them raises/extensions), and are only a few games over .500; and

Minnesota witnesses Michael Beasley takes his game to another level because he thrives as the go-to player and relishes the role of team leader (that he seems to be developing in training camp), while Kevin Love efficiently puts up a very respectable 16 ppg and 12 rpg, but the team still remains in the Western Conference cellar because they still haven't figured out how to pull out close games.

Facing the possibility of losing Anthony to free agency in the summer, Denver becomes desperate to trade him while they can still get good value.  Enter the Timberwolves with this trade offer:

Denver Nuggets receive: Kevin Love, Kosta Koufos, Tayshaun Prince, Minnesota's 2014 1st round draft pick (unprotected), and a 1st round pick from Memphis (lottery protected in 2011, top-12 protected in 2012, top-10 protected in 2013 and top-9 protected in 2014 and 2015 - after which it is converted into cash);

Minnesota Timberwolves receive: Carmelo Anthony (provided he signs an extension);

Detroit Pistons receive: Jonny Flynn, a trade exception worth approximately $8M, and a 1st round pick from Utah (top-16 protected in 2011, lottery protected in 2012, and top-12 protected in 2013 -  which in 2014 becomes a top-9 protected "pick swap" at the option of the Wolves or a 2014 second round pick if the swap does not take place);

While it seems like Anthony is amenable to signing an extension for a(ny) team on the East Coast, the question remains whether or not he'd be willing to sign an extension with the Wolves.  If he would though, then that gives us the #1 scoring option on the wing that we've been seeking.  It would surely hurt to give up Love - who I believe is on par with Anthony in terms of overall value as a basketball player - but in this scenario Anthony provides our team with something that it needs more than what Love provides so I'd be willing to pull the trigger.  I can only imagine that having Anthony to run with him, and not having as many PG's on our roster, would only make it more likely for Ricky Rubio to join the team next year.  Furthermore, trading Flynn would also help ensure that our record after the deadline wouldn't improve so much that we would end up losing our 1st round pick to the Clippers this year.

Denver gets what they are looking for and doesn't end up with a massive trade exception and nothing else like Cleveland and Toronto.  Love is a young front-line player that should get consideration for the all-star team every season over the next 10 years.  They would be able to give Koufos enough minutes to see him develop into a solid NBA Center - I envision him being on par with Chris Kaman if he reaches his potential.  Prince would come off their books this summer to give them some cap space.  Meanwhile, they actually reduce their salary by about $1M this season and thereby save the owner $2M.

Detroit will be aggressively seeking a trade for Prince by the deadline, and they could do worse than to get a young point guard and a mid-to-late 1st rounder for him.  Sure, it's possible that a contender might offer them a decent package to rent him for a title run, but it's much more likely that a team will be looking to off-load a bad contract for him by throwing in a young player and a pick.  At least in this trade they wouldn't be stuck with a bad contract to go with the young player and the pick.

Altogether, this seems a bit far-fetched but not entirely outside the realm of possibility.  What say you CH?  Does this seem like a horribly optimistic scenario?  Would it be better to use our cap space to stockpile draft picks and (even more) young players with potential by facilitating trades for other teams?

 

 


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this seem like a horribly optimistic scenario

He wanted to go to nets Because of the market that they play in might be able to get good players. It sucks that nobody wants to come to Minnesota. Hell nobody wanted to go to Cleveland when the had James.

by chuckd@79 on Sep 29, 2010 5:30 PM CDT reply actions  

I love Melo

But I don’t see giving up Flynn Kosta and K Love for him

by RB10 on Sep 29, 2010 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

So we get Melo

But give up Love, Flynn, Koufos, a 3 first rounders? So our lineup is

Ridnour/Bassy
Webster/Wes/Brewer
Melo/Wes/Hayward
Beasley/Tolliver
Darko/Pek

With Rubio coming over next season. Initially it sounded like it might be too much to give up, but with such a young team we won’t need the draft to get more young guys and it looks like a solid lineup. It looks thin below the basket though.

by twolf1 on Sep 29, 2010 5:38 PM CDT reply actions  

I suppose it also works

if we cut Detroit out altogether and just give Denver Love, Koufos, Brewer, and the Memphis and Utah 1st round draft picks. We would save our 2014 first round pick in that scenario and keep Flynn too. If that were the case, then Kahn would probably make a promise to Rubio that he will trade Flynn as soon as the ink dries on Rubio’s contract.

Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric? That's ridiculous! I would never have traded Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric.
- Sam Cassell on McHale's decisions while running the Timberwolves.

by ynotsema2 on Sep 29, 2010 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

On paper it sounds fine

I’d trade Love and a future first (hopefully we’re out of the lottery by 2014, but it’d have to be protected nonetheless) for Carmelo Anthony, almost any day of the week.

However, this hypothetical assumes that Beasley is coming into his own as the team’s star and leader. Trading Kevin Love for Melo could very well put Beasley in a situation uncomfortably similar to the one he had with Dwyane Wade in Miami. What would this do to Beasley’s great attitude and infuence on the others?

Plus Melo is closer to Beasley’s position than Wade was. Could they even mesh as players?

I think we’d be better off keeping Love if we’re going to acquire Melo. But let’s assume that this hypothetical Wolves team comes to exist by the trade deadline. Forget anything else, I’d consider the season a success there and then, regardless of getting Carmelo Anthony or (almost) anyone else.

by Cody2k2 on Sep 29, 2010 6:43 PM CDT reply actions  

If Beasley has the great year you say he will, I'd trade him instead.

Love would likely be able to coexist with Melo better as he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. The chemistry between Melo and Beasley could be an issue as well (like Cody said).

by Omaha Sun on Sep 29, 2010 6:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Melo

Plays very very similarly to Beasley. The redundancy between those two makes keeping them on the same team a very bad idea. In my mind, Beasley has to go in any Melo deal.

Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."

by Xand1 on Sep 30, 2010 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't like this trade

Carmelo is not worth it, not for anything close to that price. If we’re giving up that much then we sure as hell be getting Derrick Favors or Nene back as well.

"Styx might be the mullet of bands."

by biggity2bit on Sep 29, 2010 7:01 PM CDT reply actions  

Interesting trade -- with mods

I agree with Omaha Sun, Beasley would fit better than Love in this trade. I’d think about it.

but the more I see of Beas, the less likely I am to do it. I think Beas is Melo 2.0, younger, and will cost less. So I would not do it.

If I had a front office position, and getting Melo was the deal-maker on getting Ricky, then I might do it.

But I think if we keep Beas, and have Ricky & Bjelica coming over, and if Pek & Darko look like they’ll really have NBA games, and Wes looks like the player we drafted, why tie up the cap space with Melo?

Especially as Melo seems to want the big stage. I think NJ is the place for Melo. Then we develop our Euro players, then someday Mikki Prokhorov comes to us and makes us a deal we cannot refuse, which includes another reclamation project named Favors for Pek and change, and then we do a deal.

Yep, that’s the ticket. I hope the FO is monitoring all of this genius advice freely offered on S&P’s site.

by timmuggs on Sep 29, 2010 7:21 PM CDT reply actions  

I have this nightmare vision...

Remember when “because there are no fours” was on the team, and was advising Big Al on how All Stars behaved in the league? And Big Al had some suits made up by Antoine Walker’s tailor?

I saw the foto of Al and said — this ain’t him. Not long after, the FO dumped ’Toine.

That is the kind of influence that I fear Melo will have on some of our young guys — it’s more about strutting than playing.

Melo is an awesome player, but he does not strike me as having the work ethic of a Kobe or the humility of a Durant. And he does not strike me as having the mentality that Rambis wants on the team.

So I’m guessing that if we got Melo, it would be at the insistence of the FO, and we’d see Rambis leave at an appropriate time. I’m a big Rambis fan, he is more important to the franchise than Melo.

Besides, we have Melo 2.0, and he is cooler than Melo anyway. The man is gonna be awesome.

No to Melo, work it out from there, FO. This advice is offered at no charge, as usual.

by timmuggs on Sep 29, 2010 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, the glorious time 'ere the games are actually played

When all the veterans are older and better
The new guys are an automatic improvement
Over the departees
And the coaches have a year more of experience
Under their belts

Flynn is a tiny, rehabbing, worst starting PG in the league. Koufos may not be in the league in a year. The picks will be middle first rounders at best.

So it comes down to Love for Melo. I love Love, but I’d do that trade in a heartbeat.

by PoorDick on Sep 29, 2010 8:59 PM CDT reply actions  

For me

it comes down to how much we would have to pay Love. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Carmelo would require a max deal for however many years, and while that is certainly overpaid from a basketball perspective, he’d pay for his own contract with butts in seats.

I guess the way I look at it is this: We’re giving up more for Carmelo Anthony than we got for Kevin Garnett. Even without the benefit of hindsight. Green we already knew was an idiot. Telfair was worse off then than he is now. Jefferson had question marks and, as we now know, wasn’t ever what McHale billed him to be. Gomes is what he is. Ratliff was… free money. One extra draft pick and our own back to us. That’s less than Love (better than Jefferson), Flynn (Better than any other players we got), 3 first rounders are about even to the 2 we got, and Koufos basically offsets Gerald Green. So we got Gomes above that to make up for the differences between Love + Flynn – Jefferson + Telfair. Then both got extended for more than they would be worth (but KG was still going to offer a year or two of full production worthy of a max).

So while it might not be an awful deal, I’d rather not get an overpaid allstar for Love, Flynn, and 3 picks. Then again, if Love demands money or walks, I’d do the deal in an instant :)

You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...

by Mplax on Sep 29, 2010 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

When it comes time to extend Love,

he’ll be expecting something in the $12M-15M/year range. I question whether he’ll produce enough to warrant getting that kind of money (either on the court or by putting people in the stands), but I fully expect him to request that much. And if he becomes a restricted free agent in the summer of 2012 some team is probably going to sign him to that kind of an offer.
Of course, if Beasley lives up to his potential he’ll ask for that much or more as well. However, I feel more comfortable paying him that kind of money.

Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric? That's ridiculous! I would never have traded Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric.
- Sam Cassell on McHale's decisions while running the Timberwolves.

by ynotsema2 on Sep 29, 2010 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

As much as we need to keep our good players eventually

I’ll let him walk for that kind of cash. Like I said though, if he wants to start talking about an extension and that’s his final offer, I trade him in a heartbeat before I let it get out that he is asking for so much.

You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...

by Mplax on Sep 30, 2010 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Of course

From Denver’s perspective the question becomes “do we want Love, or would we rather let Anthony leave for nothing?” But they would almost surely receive many more offers for him in the interim.

Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric? That's ridiculous! I would never have traded Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric.
- Sam Cassell on McHale's decisions while running the Timberwolves.

by ynotsema2 on Sep 29, 2010 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

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