5 Easy Pieces
by gundars_vetra on Sep 4, 2010 2:10 PM CDT
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If you've read an NBA Season Preview by any nationally syndicated columnist, you've already been informed that the Minnesota Timberwolves are in for another rough season. Such an outlook would no-doubt have called the Wolves bottom feeders, a team in turmoil, and hopelessly overmatched, before going on to deride a team that drafted for need rather than talent, undervalued their existing assets by failing to maximize their trade value, and offered multi-year contracts to or traded for long-decided draft busts. Such is the NBA's National Beat Writer's Cliff's Notes version of a 15-win Midwest basketball squad. But for any fan who (reads this blog or) has watched the Timberwolves go from within one Sam Cassell injury from the NBA Finals to today's group of Kindercore Cast-offs has seen its teams in various states of turmoil, malaise, and, last year, overmatched hopelessness. This version of the Wolves isn't any of them. Let me explain...
Out: Ramon Sessions
In: Luke Ridnour
If your squad runs an egalitarian offense like the triangle, you need space to create passing and driving lanes. If you want to create space, you need shooters. Ramon Sessions made 1-15 three point attempts all of last year. A shooter, he was not. Luke Ridnour's attempts numbered 69-181, good for 44th in the league at 38%. It is beyond safe to say that Sessions, though a good player, was never a great fit. The fact Ridnour was considered a potential target of another squad who runs a notably successful version of the triangle in Los Angeles speaks volumes to the value of this upgrade.
Out: Damien Wilkins
In: Martell Webster
Similar to Sessions, with his 61 attempted threes last year, Damien Wilkins found creative ways to turn down open perimeter jumpers and drive into traffic. Martell Webster is a former #6 pick out of high school who has been alternately spoon fed and crowded out of playing time for the Portland Trail Blazers. Starting, backup, shooting guard or small forward; no matter the role Webster eventually falls into, he is an upgrade over the steady handed but ultimately non-threatening Wilkins. His 332 three point attempts last season show his bashfulness from behind the arc will not be an issue and his youtube highlight reels show Corey Brewer will no longer be the only player capable of throwing down a dunk in traffic. A definite upgrade in shooting and athletic ability.
Out: Oleksiy Pecherov
In: Nikola Pekovic
Comparisons between last year's undersized-at-center, logjammed-at-power-forward frontcourt and this year's euro-centered, logjammed-at-power-forward version don't start or end with Oleksiy Pecherov's list of accomplishments or expectations. Both were light and tended to throw up threes way early in the shot clock. Nikola Pekovic carries significantly more weight and is the first legitimate bruiser the Wolves have rostered since Tom Hammonds left to play with racecars. No more will Shaq or Dwight Howard force the Wolves to dust off a seldom-seen big from their bench, carrying per-game averages of 1.8/2.3 point and rebounds, whose job exists for the sole purpose of that night's contest being on the schedule. Pekovic will already be in the Wolves frontcourt mix and he will happily meet another team's bigs in the middle.
Out: Ryan Hollins
In: Darko Milicic
Starting centers for the Wolves historically have the lowest expectations of any local sports position short of Joe Mauer's backup. There simply are no requirements beyond place holding. The spectacular running and leaping of UCLA track star Ryan Hollins lent itself to highlight reel alley-oops, follow-up dunks, even the occasional blocked shot. His athletic ability allowed him to recover quickly enough that you (and possibly he) never realized how out of position he was to begin with. Hollins' eternal surprise of uncontested players driving towards his defensive position and his delayed reaction to defend that position was the Wolves interior defense's gift that just kept giving last season. Interior defense is by no means a one man job, but after ceding playing time to Darko Milicic late last season it was plain to see what a properly positioned center could do to improve a Wolves defense that still had many, many other problems. Milicic's signing has been pointed to as an example of foolhardy contracts signed this summer, but the going rate for competent middle men in their mid-twenties is what it is. Darko is it now and has the untapped potential to be more, still. Stop laughing, you'll see.
Out: Ryan Gomes
In: Michael Beasley
Ryan Gomes is the definition of a glue guy, the doer of little things, and many should be sad to see him go. Like mortar to bricks, those little things don't add up to much if the building blocks aren't in place to be held together in the first place. Gomes' biggest contributions would fall under the category "court awareness." His ability to create space and to cover for teammates are great characteristics to have, but not if those teammates aren't worth the space created for them -- meaning they can't do much with it. Michael Beasley has the potential to be one of those building blocks. After playing in the shadow of his own off-court shenanigans and the league's premier 0-guard, Dwyane Wade, Beasley is a prime candidate to break out and showcase the scoring ability that made him the #2 overall pick in 2008.
So before seeing the turnover and calling it turmoil, take a look at what's taking shape. This offseason, the Wolves replaced a lot of mismatched personnel with more capable shooters to stretch the triangle wider, more athletic slashers to exploit that space and get out in the open foor and longer, more bruising bangers to anchor down low. Sounds to me like the forecast calls for a more competitive season with a chance to watch some kids come into their own.
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positive rehash
i know a lot of this is piggybacking this summer’s rose colored reviews, but i felt the need to throw down my two cents.
I think you threw down about $6.50
Thanks. Can we link to this in comment sections for all the Trey Kirbys of the world?
Also, how about: Out Sasha Pavlovic; In: Wes Johnson?
If you are reading this, you are the resistance
hard to place
it was hard to consider the replacements in a rotation that had so many ins and outs over the season. sasha, hollins and pecherov all had their ups and downs, but i thank god we’ll never have to see sasha try and create his own shot again. i know people say wes is poor, but he can’t be as bad as pavlovic.
by gundars_vetra on Sep 4, 2010 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I like your take
I’m looking forward to this season and to watching all the new players.
Spain just beat Greece by 8 (?). Haven’t seen the box score yet but Ricky looked good to me.
No autopsy, no foul.
moving pieces
yeah, calderon going down really lets everyone get a longer look at ricky on spain’s first team. navarro, rudy and garbajosa spread the floor better than vasquez and reyes on their second string. much like beasley, wes and love could? it’s tough not to compare and contrast while watching spain in action.
by gundars_vetra on Sep 4, 2010 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
thanks for the write up
clear upgrades at many positions. At the very least the Wolves point differential should fall even if victories don’t fall. That is, it’s difficult to imagine that this team won’t be more competitive than last season’s team. That said, it’s difficult to believe that any team would be less competitive than last season’s team.
I would drive 10 miles to hear fucktwats sing.
by littleboxes on Sep 4, 2010 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
that's what i'm talking about
with so many upgrades from “incompetent” to “capable” it will be impossible not to be competitive. the blowouts should decrease if only because the wolves will be more scrappy — their second team should be able to keep them in games.
Hey, how can I lay down a bet?
Does vegas take bets on how many wins an NBA team will gain?
Might be able to get a good payoff on 30 – 35 games.
This is a very good take
on the players mentioned, but you have to look at all of the additions and subtractions to get a comprehensive perspective on the upcoming season. Al Jefferson’s departure cannot be ignored. Yes, it was the right thing to do for the long-term. But in the short-term, I really think we’re going to miss his rock solid defensive rebounding and his ability to put pressure on any defense that fielded a mediocre big to guard him. So while it’s not too hard to envision a better record, I really think the win total will be something in the 18 – 23 range. To me 25 wins would be a huge success for David Kahn. Our franchise would improve by 10 games and post the best record since KG left, all done with cap space, a 2011 lottery pick, and Ricky Rubio all waiting in the wings.
on the flipside
of the Al trade is that our defense should be a lot better. The man never realized what it took on the otherside of the court to win. His only goals were to grab the board, pass it to the PG to bring it up and then get a post feed on the left low block and go through his series of offensive post moves. There was no effort on the defensive end to impose his will or get a stop. Let’s not pretend that Al had a good +/- impact on this team. He didn’t. If the team constructed can play solid D, then no one will miss Al on this team.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 4, 2010 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions
This is very true
I really think his offensive contributions will be offset by our improved D. We lose Al’s shot creating but should make up a lot of that ground with improved team work and, more importantly, what should amount to a veritable 3pt barrage. I love Al and think his post repertoire made him incredibly fun to watch, but I also think he needed to be in the right situation to maximize his value and that situation was definitely not here. There’s a lot to be said from sharing the ball amongst a team of shooters and cutters while dominating the boards and playing solid team D, which is what this team’s MO will be next year. I really think they’ll surprise people, at least during the 2nd half of the season when they’ve had some time to learn to play together.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
I don't see us dominating the boards
This is where we’ll miss Jefferson. Yes, Love is a great rebounder, but we are at a disadvantage in that department at the Center and PG positions. Unless Beasley can maintain or up his rebounding rate from the SF position, I see us as an average rebounding team at best.
Had we drafted Cousins instead of Wes Johnson and traded Pekovic for some other asset, I could have definitely seen us have a pretty significant rebounding advantage against most teams.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 5, 2010 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions
You're right
Not sure what I was thinking. We won’t dominate the boards, but I think we’ll hold our own overall and should still be able to count offensive rebounding as a strength due to Love (and possibly Peko – I think he’ll hit the offensive glass hard). We’ll miss Al’s contributions, though his departure means more floor time for KLove, and any time Love takes that would have belonged to Al means a net positive as he should equal Al’s D rebounding and improve offensive rebounding. We should also get solid contributions on the boards from the 3 spot – Beasley’s production is solid if he’s playing there, Wes was a good rebounder last year and Corey is a good rebounder when he plays the 3/is healthy.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
A comment on Pekovic
Hi, first time poster here. As a fan of Casspi and the Kings, I saw Peko in two games against Israel. I doubt he will be a great offensive rebounder. He lacks the athleticism and lateral movement to grab boards outside his immediate reach.
I’m also not sure if he’ll be a great defensive rebounder, but he’ll definitely keep his man off the boards, On offense, he has the strength to establish deep position against most opponents, and he is a good passer. He’s a great freethrow shooter and knows to draw fouls. A very nice addition to the team.
I also believe Darko could have a very good year. I hope he will. He didn’t deserve all the scorn he received.
I believe and hope you guys will have a good year and see some progress, even if it won’t translate into wins.
Dunking Dutchman
LOL, just a screen name
I´m half Dutch, half Israeli. And Smits to the Dutch is something like Casspi for the Israeli´s.
Dunking Dutchman
Thanks for the insight
It’s always great to get new opinions, though I may disagree. In the games I’ve seen, Peko has seemed quite very active on the offensive glass going after tip ins and easy points. It will be interesting to see how he fares as a rebounder in the NBA because his Euro stats were obviously quite anemic. As a defensive rebounder it seems like he won’t fare well, but he does have a nose for the ball offensively and some nice touch so I think he’ll be better on the O glass than most think. I’m pretty excited to see what he’ll do in the NBA next year.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
Thanks Xand1
You are probably right. I only saw his two games against Israel and some highlights, and that is a small sample.
But Israel really has no big men with the length and strength to battle with Pekovic, and he got few offensive boards against them. That made me think he’ll struggle to do better in the NBA. But it is hard to predict how Euro stats translate to NBA stats and play.
Another thing I did not mention that Pekovic was moving surprisingly fast up the court on fast breaks. He may score some points here as the trailer on the break.
Dunking Dutchman
true
but I do wonder about the NBA bigs and how many really like to bang in the paint. Most of the guys doing the banging aren’t that talented. Excluding Marc Gasol, Howard and a couple of others, they aren’t what you would call physically imposing like Pekovic is. If it doesn’t lead to fouls and he can simply box out on the defensive end I think we will be okay.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 6, 2010 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions
I want to see where
an NBA team defeats another team because it had more rebounds. Scoring more than your opponent is what wins games. We gave up Al. Love and the others will struggle to replace the best low post scoring option in the NBA. Honestly, if the tables were turned, would posters be working so hard to find positives in Al’s game rather than Love’s? And an increase from 15 wins to 25 is not gonna make anyone in the NBA sit up and take notice. 25 wins is still pathetic, just less so.
by ogishkemuncie on Sep 6, 2010 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Without having a stat to support this idea...
I am going to guess that a strong correlation exists between a (significant) rebounding margin and wins.
Questioning the idea that rebounding helps teams to win games seems akin to questioning the idea that turnovers in football (or walks in baseball) tend to lead to losses… Seems like common sense 101.
In the 2010 finals,
The team that won the rebounding battle each night won the game. This of course was because the teams were so evenly matched, but rebounding is about the most significant stat save points and turnovers.
by SF on Sep 6, 2010 10:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Get your advanced stats out of here!
Points scored is the only stat that matters!
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
The rebounding battle becomes
more and more important as the pace of play slows to a crawl in the playoffs because teams do a much better job of taking away your easy buckets and each shot should be harder than normal and FG% should suffer for both teams. Having a large advantage over your opponent in either # of possessions or scoring efficiency/ability to make something out of nothing are key to winning (as is the ability to get stops on D).
Al could not contribute to getting stops on D and didn’t really score that efficiently. He did clean up the defensive boards, but commonly did so because of his poor D. Not to mention that Al’s ability to create something out of nothing in the playoffs would not be as effective as in the regular season. His lack of either ability or willingness to pass out of double and triple teams would have killed him.
I simply don’t see the huge loss that trading Al could be according to some. He isn’t a superstar and isn’t a team player with anything close to a complete skills package. He is a critically flawed player and the wolves roster would have hard a really hard time gelling and building the desired chemistry with him on the roster demanding minutes and not setting a positive example on the defensive end.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 7, 2010 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions
team rebound stats
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/rebounds-per-game
here’s the team rebounding stats for 2009-2010. rebounding has more to do with defense than scoring the ball. “scoring more than your opponent is what wins games,” that’s a very professorial stand, but i’d wager a lot more goes into a win than that.
maybe take another five seconds, look up the league individual scoring leaders, compare them to the standings — or even better, cross-reference them with the league’s scoring team leaders and see how it corresponds.
if you want to see it, take five seconds and google it. maybe there is a stat for which stat is more important that’ll help you figure it out.
by gundars_vetra on Sep 6, 2010 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions
All that is fine but
who scores points for this team? The responses will invariably be folks who have yet to play a minute for the Wolves. Love will not be your lead scorer most nights. Flynn is persona non grata to most here, but he, at least, can be a scorer. It’s all very vague and uncertain. I think Love is currently performing the best fitting role he will likely ever have: supersub on a talented team. I would love him to have a similar role here, if we could only build starters good enough for it to happen. Unfortunately, we are a long long way away from that.
by ogishkemuncie on Sep 7, 2010 6:48 AM CDT up reply actions
It is definitely up in the air on this team
I think the hope is that half of our scoring comes from the 2/3 this year via Wes, Beasley, Webster. With Love getting cleanup buckets and getting 12-15 a night, plus Pek will get his scoring chances off the bench. Jonny will score fairly well once he comes back. Ridnour should be opportunistic.
But you are right in that there is no clear cut scoring order. That will lead to some unclear roles and loses early on, but when they figure it out amongst themselves they will start winning.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 7, 2010 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions
25 wins may not make the evil doers at ESPN
take notice, but it should make Timberwolf fans take notice. It will be the best record we’ve had in 5 years, a major improvement over last season, and we’d be doing it with three significant assets in the pipeline: A 2011 lottery pick, 10+M in cap space, and Ricky Rubio. I think David Kahn can sell 25 wins as a hopeful step forward and I for one would buy it. Unfortunately, I actually think 25 wins is a stretch goal and we’d have to have a lot go right for us to achieve that many wins. Call me a realist.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 7, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Eh
The Darko-Love-Beasley-Pekovic rotation will hardly put the fear of God into most offenses. Is it an upgrade over Darko-Love-Jefferson-Hollins? Yes, but not significant enough to make much of a difference in my opinion.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 5, 2010 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions
it's not so much the sum of its parts
that I think will improve the defense, but rather the overall team emphasis on Defense. I don’t think Al ever really tried on Defense for more than a game or two at a time. I think you will see a different attitude next year from our frontcourt. Charges will be taken and hard fouls will be committed upon occasion. That will cause offenses to hesitate. Getting laid out by Pekovic is even better than having your shot blocked imo.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 5, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Getting laid out by Pekovic
will merely put Pek on the bench that much quicker. I sincerely doubt players in this league will be intimidated by his physicality. All of these front court players with no lift. Except for Darko, who has true size, other teams will merely jump over or run past Pek and Love.
by ogishkemuncie on Sep 6, 2010 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions
All the more reason to get rid of Al
No one would take charges because Al wouldn’t. Have you ever played all out on a team where another member was halfassing it? Why bother? Defense is about concerted effort…and Al was always a weak link. A charge is better than a block. It always gets you the ball and your opponent a foul. A block sometimes goes back to your opponent and they have no foul to boot. Lift is overrated in a frontcourt player.
Try playing with Bruised ribs or tailbone once and I gaurantee you that players will respect Pek’s physicality. Yes he may end up on the bench, but getting laid out in the first quarter will effect you all night and for weeks after (when fouls are magically wiped clean).
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 7, 2010 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pek is a raging bull
In a china shop full of <6’6 NBA guards. The guy is a tank. Doubt it all you want, but come time to actually watch the guy play, you’ll see what we’re saying. He’s a true-blue bruiser.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
5 easy pieces
the post was really about the “easy” upgrades. (replacing gomes isn’t really easy, but he’s a role player all the same.) al and the rookies would fit another category. however, i believe al is a zero-sum player for the wolves — he’s a drag on your defense and a ball stopper on your offense. on utah, he’ll be worth more because he’ll be spoon fed (by d-will) on offense and ass kicked (by sloan) on defense. but on the wolves, he’s a zero sum player. who did al make better? love will inherit some intangible duties, but beasley should shoulder some of al’s numbers. the wins should take care of themselves after roles and maturity shake out in a year or two.
by gundars_vetra on Sep 5, 2010 12:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Who made Al better?
As a C/PF, it was hardly Al’s role to make people better, at least on offense. He played with probably the worst perimeter starting unit in the NBA in Gomes-Flynn-Brewer. These last few years he had to create virtually everything himself and I agree with you that he is in a much better situation in Utah now.
Again, I agree with the trade. I’m not arguing that we should have kept Al. But we are going to miss his rebounding with Pekovic and Darko taking all the minutes at Center, two guys who are pretty anemic in that department compared to Jefferson. And no has the potential to exploit a mismatch and put pressure on a defense in the way Jefferson could, at least no one that has proven it yet at the NBA level. Hopefully Pekovic and Beasley can fill this role.
by Rascal Flatts on Sep 5, 2010 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions
a simple
addition/subtraction analysis like this makes it painfully clear how lazy and just plain stupid a lot of the national writers are. I know its beating a dead horse but how can any writer not look at the roster and not see how this team is better than last years, at least on paper????
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