FanPost

Our Oft-Discussed "Assets"

Greetings! I'm a life-long Wolves fan and a basketball junkie. I have been stalking the Canis Hoopus boards for a while now but am new to the posts and commenting. I have a great deal of respect for many of the posters here and am ecstatic that I have found a place where healthy debate and our beloved Timberwolves converge. Having said that...

Lately on the board there has been a lot more pessimism and unrest than usual. Maybe the reason for that is we're 11-36. Maybe we're just coming out of the 'honeymoon' phase of the season and getting into the grind of married life with this squad. Whatever it is, most of that pessimism and unrest is being directed at the front office and our tricorne-wearing head coach.

There have been a lot of references to the assets that the organization has had, and squandered over the past 2 years. Among these assets are the 6-7 first round draft picks (depending on how you count them) that we've had since Kahn took the helm. I've heard these picks called "first-rounders," "high-picks," "valuable picks," and most often "assets."

Hearing ad-nauseum that our front office is terrible in the draft reminds me of a couple of articles I read a couple years ago over on espn. I am aware that not everyone likes the crew over at espn. I am aware that even fewer of you like anything with Hollinger's name on it. I'm also aware that many of you are stat-heads, and the numbers behind this are pretty solid.

1. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4222914

2. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4227787

I'm sorry if not all of you have the espn insider access, but the gist of the articles respectively is that:

1. Draft picks are generally EXTREMELY overrated based on the value/production the players taken at each position give a team on average.

2. There are almost always only 1-2 true impact players in any given draft. After the 5th pick in the draft you're very lucky to get even a quality rotation player out of any pick.

Let's take a look at where our picks fell and what came from them. (I only posted the first 20 picks to keep it shorter. Skip down to 2009 for Kahn, obviously.)

2007

1 Portland - Greg Oden - C
2 Seattle - Kevin Durant - SF
3 Atlanta - Al Horford - PF
4 Memphis - Mike Conley - PG
5 Boston (Traded to Seattle) - Jeff Green - SF
6 Milwaukee - Yi Jianlian - PF
7 Minnesota - Corey Brewer - SG
8 Charlotte (Traded to Golden State) - Brandan Wright - PF
9 Chicago (from New York) - Joakim Noah - PF
10 Sacramento - Spencer Hawes - C
11 Atlanta (from Indiana) - Acie Law - PG
12 Philadelphia - Thaddeus Young - SF
13 NO/Oklahoma City - Julian Wright - SF
14 Los Angeles - Al Thornton - SF
15 Detroit (from Orlando) - Rodney Stuckey - SG
16 Washington - Nick Young - SG
17 New Jersey - Sean Williams - C
18 Golden State - Marco Belinelli - SG
19 Los Angeles - Javaris Crittenton - PG
20 Miami (Traded to Philadelphia) - Jason Smith - PF

2008

1 Chicago - Derrick Rose - PG
2 Miami - Michael Beasley - PF
3 Minnesota - O.J. Mayo - SG
4 Seattle - Russell Westbrook - PG
5 Memphis - Kevin Love - PF
6 New York - Danilo Gallinari - SF
7 L.A. Clippers - Eric Gordon - SG
8 Milwaukee - Joe Alexander - SF
9 Charlotte - D.J. Augustin - PG
10 New Jersey - Brook Lopez - C
11 Indiana (traded to Portland) - Jerryd Bayless - PG
12 Sacramento - Jason Thompson - PF
13 Portland (traded to Indiana) - Brandon Rush - SG
14 Golden State - Anthony Randolph - PF
15 Phoenix (from Atlanta) - Robin Lopez - C
16 Philadelphia - Marreese Speights - C
17 Toronto - Roy Hibbert - C
18 Washington - JaVale McGee - PF
19 Cleveland - J.J. Hickson - PF
20 Charlotte (from Denver) - Alexis Ajinca - PF
31 Minnesota - Nikola Pekovic - C


2009

1. Clippers - Blake Griffin - PF
2. Grizzlies - Hasheem Thabeet - C
3. Thunder - James Harden - SG
4. Kings - Tyreke Evans - PG
5. Timberwolves - Ricky Rubio - PG
6. Timberwolves - Jonny Flynn - PG
7. Warriors - Stephen Curry - PG
8. Knicks - Jordan Hill - PF
9. Raptors - DeMar DeRozan - SG
10. Bucks - Brandon Jennings - PG
11. Nets - Terrence Williams - SG
12. Bobcats - Gerald Henderson - SG
13. Pacers - Tyler Hansbrough - PF
14. Suns - Earl Clark - SF
15. Pistons - Austin Daye - SF
16. Bulls - James Johnson - PF
17. 76ers - Jrue Holiday - PG
18. Timberwolves - Ty Lawson - PG
19. Hawks - Jeff Teague - PG
28. Timberwolves - Wayne Ellington - SG

2010

1. Wizards - John Wall - PG
2. 76ers - Evan Turner - SG
3. Nets - Derrick Favors - PF
4. Timberwolves - Wesley Johnson - SF
5. Kings - DeMarcus Cousins - C
6. Warriors - Ekpe Udoh - PF
7. Pistons - Greg Monroe - PF
8. Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu - SF
9. Jazz - Gordon Hayward - SF
10. Pacers - Paul George - SF
11. Hornets - Cole Aldrich - C
12. Grizzlies - Xavier Henry - SG
13. Raptors - Ed Davis - PF
14. Rockets - Patrick Patterson -PF
15. Bucks - Larry Sanders - PF
16. Timberwolves - Luke Babbitt - SF (Martell Webster)
17. Bulls - Kevin Seraphin - PF
18. Thunder - Eric Bledsoe- -PG
19. Celtics - Avery Bradley - SG
20. Spurs - James Anderson - SG
23. Timberwolves - Trevor Booker - PF

Draft picks are not as valuable as their number, they are only as valuable as the player they can get you. I think just a quick look at the last four drafts in their entirety make this very clear. I think it's safe to say that in the last 4 drafts there have been only a handful of real 1A immediate impact guys: Durant, Rose, Griffin, Wall. There has been a 2nd group of guys that have already developed into 2A impact guys: Horford, Noah, Westbrook, Love, Gordon. Then there is a group of guys that might/might not get there: Evans, Curry, Cousins, Oden, Beasley, Mayo, Lopez, Rubio, Turner, Favors, Johnson. (this list will have it's critics and I may have missed a guy or two)

In the last 4 years:

  • We've never had a pick that could have netted us a 1A immediate impact guy.
  • We've had 2 picks that could have gotten us 2A guys. One was in 2007 (McHale) when we could have taken Noah and took Mr. Brewer. One was in 2008 (McHale) when we ended up with Love. That's 1 out of 2 (both McHale).
  • Out of the guys that might/might not get there we have: Beas, Rubio, Johnson. That's 3/11 of all the guys in the league that have the potential to get into that 2A group.

In the last 2 Kahn years:

  • We've never had a pick that could have netted us a 1A immediate impact guy.
  • We've never had a pick that could have netted us a 2A guy unless you think Cousins and Curry are in that group.
  • Out of the guys that might/might not get there we have: Beas, Rubio, Johnson. That's 3/5 of all the guys in the league that have the potential to get into that 2A group. This is all Kahn's FO.

I read in almost every thread about how the FO should have done far better than they have in utilizing those picks to build a competitive roster and quite frankly, I've had just about enough of it. In the last 2 years we've had 2, maybe 3 picks of middling (at best) value based on the talent in the draft. The last 2 drafts have been terrible. NO ONE in the league is getting significantly better through the draft without getting a #1-2 pick.

At absolute WORST, Kahn has missed on Curry and Cousins. Let's not pretend he took over an organization that was flush with "assets" and has run it into the ground. If anything, he has given us exactly what those picks should have produced on average: hope for the franchise and couple of decent rotation players. Anything else is gravy.