FanPost

Guess who will be playing a lot?

(Well, when they finally start playing, but I digress)

 

The answer? Anthony Tolliver. Reasons below the fold.

I have proposed that the best starting lineup for winning games the Wolves could trot out is one consisting of Love, Williams, Wes Johnson, Rubio, and Tolliver. For whatever reason I was thinking of my man AT today and started digging around his stats a bit. What emerged for me was further confirmation (in an overall sense, not any particular one thing sense) that he is the kind of player that Adelman loves and will give serious minutes to, especially given the woe-be-gone other options.

First let's just get to the grist of where Tolliver ranks among F/C's in the league - he is (at this point) what he is. An energy guy, a tenacious presence on the court, a flawed player, a role player. As we have seen, though, many teams are highly dependent on having such high level role players. In fact, (as an aside), I am beginning to wonder more and more whether or not teams even need a "Big Three" of superstars to win championships anymore or just one or two 'stars' and four or five high level role players. I would say that Dallas has one superstar, Dirk, and everyone else is just a high level role player. When the Celts won who did they have that was actually performing like a superstar? Certainly not KG and Ray Allen anymore. The Spurs? That team has always begun and ended with Tim Duncan - Tony Parker is not going to carry them anywhere (neither is Manu).

Anyways, all that aside, Tolliver is going to get minutes next year, say 2000 or so. Consider:

Totals Advanced Shooting
Rk Player Ht Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP ▾ PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT% PTS
1 Landry Fields 6-7 2010-11 22 NYK NBA 82 81 2541 13.5 .598 .568 4.7 18.9 11.7 9.0 1.6 0.5 13.8 13.5 115 110 3.5 1.8 5.3 0.100 .497 .393 .769 9.7
2 Shane Battier 6-8 2010-11 32 TOT NBA 82 59 2375 12.3 .567 .550 4.4 13.7 9.0 11.1 1.5 2.4 12.6 11.7 115 108 2.9 2.2 5.1 0.103 .450 .382 .688 7.6
3 Luc Mbah a Moute 6-8 2010-11 24 MIL NBA 79 52 2093 11.5 .518 .463 9.2 14.3 11.7 5.3 1.8 1.1 13.1 13.1 107 103 1.5 3.3 4.8 0.109 .463 .000 .707 6.7
4 Chuck Hayes 6-6 2010-11 27 HOU NBA 74 63 2079 16.2 .554 .527 11.9 20.7 16.3 14.3 1.9 1.6 14.1 13.0 120 106 3.9 2.4 6.3 0.146 .527 .000 .662 7.9
5 Tyson Chandler 7-1 2010-11 28 DAL NBA 74 74 2059 18.4 .697 .654 12.2 26.6 19.7 2.4 0.9 3.0 14.1 14.2 131 102 5.8 3.5 9.4 0.218 .654 .732 10.1
6 DeAndre Jordan 6-11 2010-11 22 LAC NBA 80 66 2047 14.8 .648 .686 11.9 20.9 16.5 3.2 1.0 5.4 18.8 11.7 116 105 2.6 2.6 5.2 0.122 .686 .000 .452 7.1
7 Kwame Brown 6-11 2010-11 28 CHA NBA 66 50 1714 12.8 .550 .517 10.3 21.6 15.9 4.1 0.8 1.8 12.6 14.9 110 108 1.8 1.7 3.5 0.097 .517 .589 7.9
8 Ed Davis 6-10 2010-11 21 TOR NBA 65 17 1602 15.8 .583 .576 12.1 22.3 17.1 3.8 1.3 3.2 10.1 13.3 120 110 2.8 1.2 4.0 0.120 .576 .555 7.7
9 Josh McRoberts 6-10 2010-11 23 IND NBA 72 51 1597 16.0 .608 .576 7.6 18.8 13.3 15.0 1.5 2.6 17.5 14.7 116 104 2.6 2.2 4.9 0.147 .547 .383 .739 7.4
10 Matt Bonner 6-10 2010-11 30 SAS NBA 66 1 1432 13.5 .617 .605 5.0 14.2 9.7 6.2 0.9 1.0 6.5 13.4 125 108 3.0 1.4 4.4 0.147 .464 .457 .744 7.3
11 Anthony Tolliver 6-8 2010-11 25 MIN NBA 65 4 1362 13.3 .585 .526 7.3 17.0 12.0 8.9 1.0 1.6 11.7 13.1 122 112 2.6 0.7 3.3 0.115 .450 .409 .802 6.7

 

 

This is the group of role players Tolliver produced like last year, with the key features being 1150+ MP, a solid shooting percentage, and a usage rate below 15. What more to say about this? To me this encapsulates what AT is - a guy who can positively help your team in certain ways AND who understands how not to hurt your team while doing it.

Some other observations relevant to playing for Adelman:

- AT ranks as the second best three point shooter of this group behind Bonner

- AT doesn't turn the ball over much

- finally, AT's pretty much middle of the pack in just about everything else.

The name that really jumped out at me was Chuck Hayes (and is actually what got me thinking that Adelman might actually play Tolliver some serious minutes). Let's clear up the obvious - Hayes is a much better defender, Tolliver a better scorer.

According to BBall Ref both weigh 240, with Tolliver being 6' 8", Hayes 6' 6". DX lists Hayes as having a 6' 10" wingspan with a 8' 8.5" standing reach. Tolliver is listed with a 7' 2.5" wingspan and an 8' 11.5" standing reach. I think Hayes is the superior athlete, although both did similar bench press reps.

 

Careerwise:

Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Chuck Hayes 2006 2011 424 233 8534 3.4 6.6 .518 0.0 0.0 .000 1.0 1.6 .603 3.6 6.7 10.3 2.3 1.5 0.8 1.4 4.7 7.8
2 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 33 2997 4.2 9.9 .427 1.3 3.7 .344 2.6 3.3 .775 2.3 5.6 7.9 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 3.5 12.3

 

You can see that, per 36 minutes, Tolliver scores nearly double what Hayes has, with much of that coming from the lines (free throw and three point). Hayes holds the edge in rebounding and steals, but they are pretty equal (productionwise) in assists, blocks, and TOs. Tolliver fouls less.

If we look at their advanced stats we see, again, a similar picture arising of Tolliver being more offensively proficient, Hayes more defensively proficient, and both players playing within their abilities:

Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Chuck Hayes 2006 2011 424 8534 13.1 .534 .518 11.4 21.3 16.4 9.3 2.2 1.6 15.7 10.9 114 101 9.9 15.0 24.8 0.140
2 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 2997 13.1 .541 .491 6.9 17.8 12.2 9.0 1.1 1.5 9.7 15.1 114 111 4.1 1.7 5.8 0.093

OK, what's notable about these stats. First, these guys are remarkably similar given their already mentioned differences. Tollivers eFG% is lower because he actually shoots threes whereas Hayes does not. Rebounding-wise we see Hayes holding an edge, but for us (as long as Love is playing) that is not a particularly pressing concern. AT is a capable rebounder. The TOV% and USG%'s really jump out to me - both guys have very similar assist rates but Tolliver is (thus far into his career) much better at protecting possessions while touching the ball more.

Looking at it in total, Adelman played Hayes on average 1800 minutes a season (not including the season Adelman had Yao for 2500 minutes). I see no reason why he won't play Tolliver similar minutes. Outside of Love, he represents our best option at center: he smart, he hustles, he can pass, he knows when to shoot, he gets to the line, he doesn't foul out, he doesn't turn the ball over. In short, Anthony Tolliver gives a damn and, given his three point shooting ability, can continue to be effectively and efficiently used offensively in concert with Love and Williams whereas Darko and Pek would clog things up. (At this point I do not consider AntRand a center - I think he's better utilized as 3/4 super sub). Link.

Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Darko Milicic 2004 2011 438 185 8161 5.0 10.9 .460 0.0 0.0 .000 1.8 3.1 .581 2.6 5.6 8.3 1.7 0.9 2.6 2.4 4.4 11.8
2 Nikola Pekovic 2011 2011 65 11 887 5.5 10.7 .517 0.0 0.0 3.5 4.6 .763 3.7 4.2 7.8 1.1 0.7 1.4 3.7 7.3 14.6
3 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 33 2997 4.2 9.9 .427 1.3 3.7 .344 2.6 3.3 .775 2.3 5.6 7.9 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 3.5 12.3

Per36 production is about the same, but again Tolliver's superior possession keeping ability ranks higher in my book. If Pek can ever learn not to foul out he and AT could make a serviceable center rotation.

Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Darko Milicic 2004 2011 438 8161 12.5 .482 .460 8.5 18.4 13.4 7.8 1.2 5.6 16.3 18.3 95 105 -3.3 10.5 7.2 0.042
2 Nikola Pekovic 2011 2011 65 887 11.2 .573 .517 11.0 13.2 12.1 4.8 1.0 3.0 22.5 19.4 100 111 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.035
3 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 2997 13.1 .541 .491 6.9 17.8 12.2 9.0 1.1 1.5 9.7 15.1 114 111 4.1 1.7 5.8 0.093

These are the numbers that, to me, really make clear that there should be no argument. For all his size and 'talent', Darko simply can't shoot, and even his vaunted passing ranks worse than AT's (using AST%). Pek has the potential to be an offensive monster if he would stop fouling out and turning the ball over. AT, at this point, combines the best balance of offensive ability, rebounding, passing, and defensive hustle. Darko is a defensive specialist, Pek an offensive specialist. Incredibly all three guys are 25.

And because I know people will wonder, here's how AT and AntRand compare:

Per 36 Minutes

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Anthony Randolph 2009 2011 136 33 2468 6.7 14.6 .457 0.0 0.2 .154 3.9 5.3 .738 3.6 7.2 10.8 1.8 1.3 2.2 2.7 4.3 17.3
2 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 33 2997 4.2 9.9 .427 1.3 3.7 .344 2.6 3.3 .775 2.3 5.6 7.9 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 3.5 12.3

Advanced

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE
Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Anthony Randolph 2009 2011 136 2468 17.3 .510 .458 10.8 22.3 16.5 8.0 1.8 4.3 13.5 23.3 102 108 1.0 2.6 3.6 0.070
2 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 2997 13.1 .541 .491 6.9 17.8 12.2 9.0 1.1 1.5 9.7 15.1 114 111 4.1 1.7 5.8 0.093

 

Amazingly similar minutes, games played, and starts between these two. Perhaps this is the center combo we need!

 

Lastly, which of these players would you bail on?

Per 36 Minutes

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Darko Milicic 2004 2011 438 185 8161 5.0 10.9 .460 0.0 0.0 .000 1.8 3.1 .581 2.6 5.6 8.3 1.7 0.9 2.6 2.4 4.4 11.8
2 Nikola Pekovic 2011 2011 65 11 887 5.5 10.7 .517 0.0 0.0 3.5 4.6 .763 3.7 4.2 7.8 1.1 0.7 1.4 3.7 7.3 14.6
3 Anthony Randolph 2009 2011 136 33 2468 6.7 14.6 .457 0.0 0.2 .154 3.9 5.3 .738 3.6 7.2 10.8 1.8 1.3 2.2 2.7 4.3 17.3
4 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 33 2997 4.2 9.9 .427 1.3 3.7 .344 2.6 3.3 .775 2.3 5.6 7.9 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 3.5 12.3

Advanced

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE
Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Darko Milicic 2004 2011 438 8161 12.5 .482 .460 8.5 18.4 13.4 7.8 1.2 5.6 16.3 18.3 95 105 -3.3 10.5 7.2 0.042
2 Nikola Pekovic 2011 2011 65 887 11.2 .573 .517 11.0 13.2 12.1 4.8 1.0 3.0 22.5 19.4 100 111 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.035
3 Anthony Randolph 2009 2011 136 2468 17.3 .510 .458 10.8 22.3 16.5 8.0 1.8 4.3 13.5 23.3 102 108 1.0 2.6 3.6 0.070
4 Anthony Tolliver 2009 2011 130 2997 13.1 .541 .491 6.9 17.8 12.2 9.0 1.1 1.5 9.7 15.1 114 111 4.1 1.7 5.8 0.093
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