Guess who will be playing a lot?

(Well, when they finally start playing, but I digress)

 

The answer? Anthony Tolliver. Reasons below the fold.

I have proposed that the best starting lineup for winning games the Wolves could trot out is one consisting of Love, Williams, Wes Johnson, Rubio, and Tolliver. For whatever reason I was thinking of my man AT today and started digging around his stats a bit. What emerged for me was further confirmation (in an overall sense, not any particular one thing sense) that he is the kind of player that Adelman loves and will give serious minutes to, especially given the woe-be-gone other options.

First let's just get to the grist of where Tolliver ranks among F/C's in the league - he is (at this point) what he is. An energy guy, a tenacious presence on the court, a flawed player, a role player. As we have seen, though, many teams are highly dependent on having such high level role players. In fact, (as an aside), I am beginning to wonder more and more whether or not teams even need a "Big Three" of superstars to win championships anymore or just one or two 'stars' and four or five high level role players. I would say that Dallas has one superstar, Dirk, and everyone else is just a high level role player. When the Celts won who did they have that was actually performing like a superstar? Certainly not KG and Ray Allen anymore. The Spurs? That team has always begun and ended with Tim Duncan - Tony Parker is not going to carry them anywhere (neither is Manu).

Anyways, all that aside, Tolliver is going to get minutes next year, say 2000 or so. Consider:

							Totals			Advanced																	Shooting
Rk	Player	Ht	Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP ▾	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48	FG%	3P%	FT%	PTS
1	Landry Fields	6-7	2010-11	22	NYK	NBA	82	81	2541	13.5	.598	.568	4.7	18.9	11.7	9.0	1.6	0.5	13.8	13.5	115	110	3.5	1.8	5.3	0.100	.497	.393	.769	9.7
2	Shane Battier	6-8	2010-11	32	TOT	NBA	82	59	2375	12.3	.567	.550	4.4	13.7	9.0	11.1	1.5	2.4	12.6	11.7	115	108	2.9	2.2	5.1	0.103	.450	.382	.688	7.6
3	Luc Mbah a Moute	6-8	2010-11	24	MIL	NBA	79	52	2093	11.5	.518	.463	9.2	14.3	11.7	5.3	1.8	1.1	13.1	13.1	107	103	1.5	3.3	4.8	0.109	.463	.000	.707	6.7
4	Chuck Hayes	6-6	2010-11	27	HOU	NBA	74	63	2079	16.2	.554	.527	11.9	20.7	16.3	14.3	1.9	1.6	14.1	13.0	120	106	3.9	2.4	6.3	0.146	.527	.000	.662	7.9
5	Tyson Chandler	7-1	2010-11	28	DAL	NBA	74	74	2059	18.4	.697	.654	12.2	26.6	19.7	2.4	0.9	3.0	14.1	14.2	131	102	5.8	3.5	9.4	0.218	.654		.732	10.1
6	DeAndre Jordan	6-11	2010-11	22	LAC	NBA	80	66	2047	14.8	.648	.686	11.9	20.9	16.5	3.2	1.0	5.4	18.8	11.7	116	105	2.6	2.6	5.2	0.122	.686	.000	.452	7.1
7	Kwame Brown	6-11	2010-11	28	CHA	NBA	66	50	1714	12.8	.550	.517	10.3	21.6	15.9	4.1	0.8	1.8	12.6	14.9	110	108	1.8	1.7	3.5	0.097	.517		.589	7.9
8	Ed Davis	6-10	2010-11	21	TOR	NBA	65	17	1602	15.8	.583	.576	12.1	22.3	17.1	3.8	1.3	3.2	10.1	13.3	120	110	2.8	1.2	4.0	0.120	.576		.555	7.7
9	Josh McRoberts	6-10	2010-11	23	IND	NBA	72	51	1597	16.0	.608	.576	7.6	18.8	13.3	15.0	1.5	2.6	17.5	14.7	116	104	2.6	2.2	4.9	0.147	.547	.383	.739	7.4
10	Matt Bonner	6-10	2010-11	30	SAS	NBA	66	1	1432	13.5	.617	.605	5.0	14.2	9.7	6.2	0.9	1.0	6.5	13.4	125	108	3.0	1.4	4.4	0.147	.464	.457	.744	7.3
11	Anthony Tolliver	6-8	2010-11	25	MIN	NBA	65	4	1362	13.3	.585	.526	7.3	17.0	12.0	8.9	1.0	1.6	11.7	13.1	122	112	2.6	0.7	3.3	0.115	.450	.409	.802	6.7

 

 

This is the group of role players Tolliver produced like last year, with the key features being 1150+ MP, a solid shooting percentage, and a usage rate below 15. What more to say about this? To me this encapsulates what AT is - a guy who can positively help your team in certain ways AND who understands how not to hurt your team while doing it.

Some other observations relevant to playing for Adelman:

- AT ranks as the second best three point shooter of this group behind Bonner

- AT doesn't turn the ball over much

- finally, AT's pretty much middle of the pack in just about everything else.

The name that really jumped out at me was Chuck Hayes (and is actually what got me thinking that Adelman might actually play Tolliver some serious minutes). Let's clear up the obvious - Hayes is a much better defender, Tolliver a better scorer.

According to BBall Ref both weigh 240, with Tolliver being 6' 8", Hayes 6' 6". DX lists Hayes as having a 6' 10" wingspan with a 8' 8.5" standing reach. Tolliver is listed with a 7' 2.5" wingspan and an 8' 11.5" standing reach. I think Hayes is the superior athlete, although both did similar bench press reps.

 

Careerwise:

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Chuck Hayes	2006	2011	424	233	8534	3.4	6.6	.518	0.0	0.0	.000	1.0	1.6	.603	3.6	6.7	10.3	2.3	1.5	0.8	1.4	4.7	7.8
2	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	33	2997	4.2	9.9	.427	1.3	3.7	.344	2.6	3.3	.775	2.3	5.6	7.9	2.2	0.8	0.7	1.2	3.5	12.3

 

You can see that, per 36 minutes, Tolliver scores nearly double what Hayes has, with much of that coming from the lines (free throw and three point). Hayes holds the edge in rebounding and steals, but they are pretty equal (productionwise) in assists, blocks, and TOs. Tolliver fouls less.

If we look at their advanced stats we see, again, a similar picture arising of Tolliver being more offensively proficient, Hayes more defensively proficient, and both players playing within their abilities:

Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
1	Chuck Hayes	2006	2011	424	8534	13.1	.534	.518	11.4	21.3	16.4	9.3	2.2	1.6	15.7	10.9	114	101	9.9	15.0	24.8	0.140
2	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	2997	13.1	.541	.491	6.9	17.8	12.2	9.0	1.1	1.5	9.7	15.1	114	111	4.1	1.7	5.8	0.093

OK, what's notable about these stats. First, these guys are remarkably similar given their already mentioned differences. Tollivers eFG% is lower because he actually shoots threes whereas Hayes does not. Rebounding-wise we see Hayes holding an edge, but for us (as long as Love is playing) that is not a particularly pressing concern. AT is a capable rebounder. The TOV% and USG%'s really jump out to me - both guys have very similar assist rates but Tolliver is (thus far into his career) much better at protecting possessions while touching the ball more.

Looking at it in total, Adelman played Hayes on average 1800 minutes a season (not including the season Adelman had Yao for 2500 minutes). I see no reason why he won't play Tolliver similar minutes. Outside of Love, he represents our best option at center: he smart, he hustles, he can pass, he knows when to shoot, he gets to the line, he doesn't foul out, he doesn't turn the ball over. In short, Anthony Tolliver gives a damn and, given his three point shooting ability, can continue to be effectively and efficiently used offensively in concert with Love and Williams whereas Darko and Pek would clog things up. (At this point I do not consider AntRand a center - I think he's better utilized as 3/4 super sub). Link.

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Darko Milicic	2004	2011	438	185	8161	5.0	10.9	.460	0.0	0.0	.000	1.8	3.1	.581	2.6	5.6	8.3	1.7	0.9	2.6	2.4	4.4	11.8
2	Nikola Pekovic	2011	2011	65	11	887	5.5	10.7	.517	0.0	0.0		3.5	4.6	.763	3.7	4.2	7.8	1.1	0.7	1.4	3.7	7.3	14.6
3	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	33	2997	4.2	9.9	.427	1.3	3.7	.344	2.6	3.3	.775	2.3	5.6	7.9	2.2	0.8	0.7	1.2	3.5	12.3

Per36 production is about the same, but again Tolliver's superior possession keeping ability ranks higher in my book. If Pek can ever learn not to foul out he and AT could make a serviceable center rotation.

Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
1	Darko Milicic	2004	2011	438	8161	12.5	.482	.460	8.5	18.4	13.4	7.8	1.2	5.6	16.3	18.3	95	105	-3.3	10.5	7.2	0.042
2	Nikola Pekovic	2011	2011	65	887	11.2	.573	.517	11.0	13.2	12.1	4.8	1.0	3.0	22.5	19.4	100	111	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.035
3	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	2997	13.1	.541	.491	6.9	17.8	12.2	9.0	1.1	1.5	9.7	15.1	114	111	4.1	1.7	5.8	0.093

These are the numbers that, to me, really make clear that there should be no argument. For all his size and 'talent', Darko simply can't shoot, and even his vaunted passing ranks worse than AT's (using AST%). Pek has the potential to be an offensive monster if he would stop fouling out and turning the ball over. AT, at this point, combines the best balance of offensive ability, rebounding, passing, and defensive hustle. Darko is a defensive specialist, Pek an offensive specialist. Incredibly all three guys are 25.

And because I know people will wonder, here's how AT and AntRand compare:

Per 36 Minutes

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Anthony Randolph	2009	2011	136	33	2468	6.7	14.6	.457	0.0	0.2	.154	3.9	5.3	.738	3.6	7.2	10.8	1.8	1.3	2.2	2.7	4.3	17.3
2	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	33	2997	4.2	9.9	.427	1.3	3.7	.344	2.6	3.3	.775	2.3	5.6	7.9	2.2	0.8	0.7	1.2	3.5	12.3

Advanced

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
1	Anthony Randolph	2009	2011	136	2468	17.3	.510	.458	10.8	22.3	16.5	8.0	1.8	4.3	13.5	23.3	102	108	1.0	2.6	3.6	0.070
2	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	2997	13.1	.541	.491	6.9	17.8	12.2	9.0	1.1	1.5	9.7	15.1	114	111	4.1	1.7	5.8	0.093

 

Amazingly similar minutes, games played, and starts between these two. Perhaps this is the center combo we need!

 

Lastly, which of these players would you bail on?

Per 36 Minutes

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Darko Milicic	2004	2011	438	185	8161	5.0	10.9	.460	0.0	0.0	.000	1.8	3.1	.581	2.6	5.6	8.3	1.7	0.9	2.6	2.4	4.4	11.8
2	Nikola Pekovic	2011	2011	65	11	887	5.5	10.7	.517	0.0	0.0		3.5	4.6	.763	3.7	4.2	7.8	1.1	0.7	1.4	3.7	7.3	14.6
3	Anthony Randolph	2009	2011	136	33	2468	6.7	14.6	.457	0.0	0.2	.154	3.9	5.3	.738	3.6	7.2	10.8	1.8	1.3	2.2	2.7	4.3	17.3
4	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	33	2997	4.2	9.9	.427	1.3	3.7	.344	2.6	3.3	.775	2.3	5.6	7.9	2.2	0.8	0.7	1.2	3.5	12.3

Advanced

Glossary ▪ CSV ▪ PRE

Rk	Player	From	To	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
1	Darko Milicic	2004	2011	438	8161	12.5	.482	.460	8.5	18.4	13.4	7.8	1.2	5.6	16.3	18.3	95	105	-3.3	10.5	7.2	0.042
2	Nikola Pekovic	2011	2011	65	887	11.2	.573	.517	11.0	13.2	12.1	4.8	1.0	3.0	22.5	19.4	100	111	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.035
3	Anthony Randolph	2009	2011	136	2468	17.3	.510	.458	10.8	22.3	16.5	8.0	1.8	4.3	13.5	23.3	102	108	1.0	2.6	3.6	0.070
4	Anthony Tolliver	2009	2011	130	2997	13.1	.541	.491	6.9	17.8	12.2	9.0	1.1	1.5	9.7	15.1	114	111	4.1	1.7	5.8	0.093

Poll

Who should be our starting center?

14%

Anthony Tolliver

25 votes

58%

Anthony Randolph

100 votes

4%

Nikola Pekovic

7 votes

22%

Darko Milicic

39 votes

171 votes | Poll has closed