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Wes Johnson - the Timberwolves in a nutshell

As Wes goes, so goes the Wolves?

I originally started this post because of some things I found about Wes that I wanted to share, but as it developed I found a different narrative that was more compelling, that of Wes Johnson as a microcosm of this team.

Last year Wes had a pretty bad rookie season. His PER was barely above 10. His WS/48 was abysmal. He shot pretty bad from behind the arc, negating what should have been a strength. He couldn't get to the line. This, from a guy who was the #4 pick in the draft. Oh, to be a Wolves fan, right?

In going back and watching some of Kurt's comments about Wes, he talked a good game about how to use and develop Wes, but the proof in the pudding was that he was content to let Wes develop into a Rick Fox type player. Not exactly a great return on the team's investment.

What a difference a coach makes.

Star-divide

Like I said, I went back and watched some Rambis clips where he talks about Wes, and to his credit Rambis mentions many of the same things Adelman does (at least topically - getting to the rim, getting Wes more comfortable with being aggressive, etc). The onus is clearly on Wes to produce this year - so why should we reasonably expect any difference?

The reasonable answer is simple: Coach Adelman.

One thing that really struck me about Rambis is how he never got into specifics about anything when answering questions.

Practice Report: Kurt Rambis (via MNwolves)

Now maybe that's just the way he is, but the vibe between him and Adelman is completely different. Rambis seems perpetually annoyed and wary about engaging with other people - aloof might be another good word. When asked specific questions about player development or issues he always talked about guys developing better defensive awareness or needing to understand the way things are done here or becoming more aggressive offensively or needing to learn when to pass and when to shoot. In other words, Rambis continually maintained that our guys should get better at stuff across the board without specifically mentioning how they should do that.

I wonder if this is why our team ended up looking so poor last year. Weird substitutions, weird player minute splits (Hollins over Love?!!!), deciding that the best way to develop/use Jonny Flynn is to make him do what he's worst at? Recognizing that a player needs to improve in specific areas and being able to give them specific coaching on how to do that are two very, very different things. It's becoming clearer and clearer with each passing day (at least from my persective) that Rambis may be a guy who understands X's and O's quite well but simply does not have what I would call the coaching gene in his body. If you can't connect with and constructively offer specific guidance to your players about what you want, then what good is your knowledge about the game?

Enter Rick Adelman.

Consider this quote from Wes:

Johnson said Adelman and his coaching staff had complete statistical breakdowns for each player as well as the entire team, directly pointing out just how poor the Wolves were a season ago when they finished with the worst record in the NBA.

"I think we needed that," Johnson said. "We didn't need to be patted on the back too much. We needed all the tough love we can get."

Rick Adelman has made a career out of getting the most out of his players. It's too soon to know if the proof will be in the pudding, but I get the strong sense that he's not going to direct Wes to attempt 42% of his overall shots from behind the arc this year.

Training Camp Day 5: Rick Adelman (via MNwolves)

Training Camp Day 5: 1-on-1 with Wes Johnson (via MNwolves)

This is exactly what should be expected from Wes, and given the luxury of Rubio and Barea, this is about as ideal of a situation that Wes will get in his career to prove that he is the Syracuse guy and not what we saw last year.

Kinda like Randolph, but for other reasons, Wes needs others to create for him. His ball handling skills don't need to be a weakness if he can use his athleticism to capitalize on cuts to the basket where he can receive timely passes from Rubio (or Barea or Love). Wes needs to play inside and out, pop around, do a little of this and a little of that. He needs to be the new janitor of this team, cleaning up whatever's left around him.

Draft Preview: Wes Johnson (via foxsports)

Consider this comment from HoopsAnalyst, talking about the difference in Wes as a prospect at Iowa State versus Syracuse:

Johnson spent two seasons at Iowa State, before transferring to Syracuse. Because he sat out a season in between, he’s the age of most college seniors. He wasn’t much of a prospect at Iowa State and that could have been because he just wasn’t utilized properly. His sophomore season there, almost half his shots came from beyond the arc. At Syracuse he was the main guy in the offense and his numbers took off.

48.6% of his shot attempts at Iowa State were three's. At Syracuse that number dropped to 29.6%. You go through and start looking at the numbers and it becomes clearer and clearer that the guy we saw last year was the prospect from Iowa State, not the player from Syracuse. If Wes plays in that role his value and efficiency will greatly increase: decreasing his threes will improve his percentages (he should be taking better shots from three); getting to the rim more should simultaneously improve his percentages overall (dunking is a high percentage shot) and improve his free throw rate (never a bad thing).

I don't think he'll ever be a high usage guy, but efficient offensive production combined with quality defensive ability would be terrific. He and Rubio clearly offer and nice defensive backcourt, and Wes' weakside shot blocking could go a long ways towards offsetting the lack of height from our forwards. Again, let him play here and there, do a little of this and that. Maybe a super glue guy, a (hopefully) high efficiency/low usage guy at #4 overall is a bad return on investment. But there is value in Wes, and as he goes so will the Wolves, thanks to Rick Adelman.

Poll
How excited are you for this season?
33+ win excited!
58 votes
25+ win excited
91 votes
Feelin' more wins than last year
36 votes
Already an OKC fan.
4 votes

189 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 22 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Comments

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Among the returning players

How Wes develops and improves (or doesn’t) under Adelman is the most interesting angle this year. He has the physical tools and apparently a good attitude. Can he be molded into a good SG? Sure hope so.

Re: predicting the number of wins … I refuse. I am wildly inaccurate and would do better throwing darts against a board with win totals on it.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra

by Wile E Coyote on Dec 14, 2011 12:48 PM CST reply actions  

"As Wes goes, so goes the Wolves?"

I’ve been thinking the same thing the entire offseason. If Wes can find his groove at the SG spot (our weakest position last year) I think he could be the reason we flirt with a .500 record or better. Granted he had flashes of brilliance at times, but he was horrible last year. He disappeared on the offensive end too many times and I cringed whenever he had the ball and a defender was on him. I still have high hopes for this kid. If he can become more comfortable handling the ball, cuts to the hoop with purpose, and improves his 3-ball, he would make us exponentially hard to contain on the offensive end when you mix him with talented guys like Love, Rubio, and Beasley. He doesn’t need to score 15ppg to be succesful, he just needs to be looking to do damage every opportunity he gets from ALL over the court.

by Asher14 on Dec 14, 2011 1:03 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

Sounds more to me like "as coaching goes, so goes the Wolves..."

i was late last year to realize how bad Rambis was. I was sucked into my usual homerism and didn’t really listen that he was saying nothing, see that his rotations were unusual, and notice that his play calling sucked rocks. Listening to Adelman is so refreshing and I am so excited to watch this team play this year I can barely stand it… Right or wrong, Adelman seems to fully understand what he wants to see in the team, evaluate where the team and individuals are in that process, and can communicate to the players and media what they need to do to improve. Wow. Was Rambis just bad at communicating to the media? – maybe – but it seems to me through play calling and some of the comments from the players that the staff last year didn’t do a very good job coaching up these kids. This should be fun to watch.

by Breaking Ankles on Dec 14, 2011 2:26 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

I have always liked Wes while I simultaneously loathed Flynn

Why? High BBIQ.

Wes passed the ball really well and made the right pass. Everything else was limited by effort, his total lack of ball handling and the lack of cuts in the offense.

I expect him to be a servicable 15 per person this year. Am I biased? look to my handle and you’ll no the answer.

He reminds me of the type of complementary player that matches his game to those around him. He will be as good as he needs to be, a bad trait for a bad team.

by Tollysnipes on Dec 14, 2011 2:56 PM CST reply actions  

Wes' progression is very crucial for both the team on the court and the legitimacy of the front office.

If he can get himself to kind of be a Shawn Marion type player and play off Rubio in that regards he could be a very effective player and help restore some faith in our front office to make good decisions.

If not our 2 guard spot will likely be an eye sore for a few years unless we can manufacture a pick and get Austin Rivers (whom I think we should target anyways)

I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.

by VoodooMagic on Dec 14, 2011 3:28 PM CST reply actions  

I like Wes...

I keep thinking about his games against Kobe last year, and how he really seemed to step it up on both ends of the court. To me, it’s all about his MOJO. If he can find his swagger and some of that Kobe fire, he has a really high upside, IMHO

by LAWolf on Dec 14, 2011 4:40 PM CST reply actions  

Great D... sometimes

If Adelman can convince Wes that everyone he guards is Kobe, he will do just fine. Adelman would do well to assign WJ to the opposition’s best scoring SG/SF on a consistent basis. I think it would activate him on both ends of the court.

by Stabby Stabby on Dec 14, 2011 5:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I think he matches up well with guys like Kobe.

Kobe’s a 1-on-1 guy and Wes has a length and athleticism advantage (Kobe is not as quick and explosive as he once was). I haven’t really studied the film or anything, but I would guess Wes mostly struggled against crafty players who used screens and backdoor cuts not to mention moments when he would rotate from being a help defender to THE defender; that’s when his “rookieness” was more exposed. I think he’ll be solid. I also think if he was on an accountable team defensive squad (think Boston) he would have looked much better.

by Asher14 on Dec 14, 2011 5:19 PM CST up reply actions  

He did well against Kobe and Monta Ellis

But Wesley Matthews ate his lunch 3 or 4 times last year.

by DukePettyjohn on Dec 14, 2011 7:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Vey good case for

A breakout year! How could he not reduce his contested 3p shots, given the new squad?

by zero_on_up on Dec 15, 2011 2:54 AM CST reply actions  

don't say break...

he is our second year player…&(I%^($%#(&$^

"My love for Jerry Kill knows no bounds." - Jeffrick

by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 15, 2011 8:01 AM CST up reply actions  

too late

just saw a report that Wes is out for the next 10-12 weeks. He got hit in the face with a no-look Rubio pass and it shattered his nose and jaw. More details to come.

by Asher14 on Dec 15, 2011 8:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Surprising then

that no one has that story. Were they practicing at 3 am?

Not a funny joke. Not about any of our players.

"He was born pissed." - Poor Dick

by TMiss on Dec 15, 2011 9:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Sorry. It was supposed to be an OBVIOUS joke...

That’s why I made it an obvious and unbelievable injury (shattered jaw being hit with a basketball?) playing off the reports that the players have been on hyper-alert for Rubio’s ridiculous passes. If I had said something like a torn MCL then that would been a little to real.

by Asher14 on Dec 15, 2011 10:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Made me look

and then check Twitter to be sure.

Sorry, too many shitty injuries to our best players for me to find that funny.

"He was born pissed." - Poor Dick

by TMiss on Dec 15, 2011 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Totally agree

Who knows when Martell will be back on the court, Ellington is awful, and Lee is a 2nd round rookie. For the Wolves to improve they have to get better production from Wes.

Putting some additional numbers to your argument, when comparing the rookie seasons of other recently drafted SGs: James Harden drew fouls on 16.4% of his FGAs, Tyreke Evans 15%, Demar DeRozan 15.7% and Evan Turner 8.2%. Last year Wes drew a grand total of 42 fouls on 724 FGAs for a rate of 5.8%!

by rubiorube on Dec 15, 2011 10:52 AM CST reply actions  

Look at this

According to 82games, only 11% of Wes’ FGA were close, at the rim, or dunks.

According to Hoopdata, 79% of his FGA’s were from 16’ or further out. Compare that with 62.6% for James Harden (the bulk of which are threes, a much better shot than long two’s), 40.8% for Tyreke, 40.4% for Dermar DeRozan, and 48.5% for Evan Turner.

31.3% of Harden’s FGA’s came at the rim, whereas for Wes only 12.7% of his FGA were at the rim. That, my friends, is how Wes was used in a nutshell last year.

What in the hell were you thinking, Rambis?!!!

by Dr. Wolfenstein on Dec 15, 2011 11:09 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Harden should be an approximate goal

If you’re taking long shots, make them 3PAs and not long twos, and then sprinkle in a healthy dose of attempts at the rim or short shots.

by Dr. Wolfenstein on Dec 15, 2011 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Hopefully it was Rambis holding Wes back

Wes would seem to have the physical tools to get to the rim on 1/3rd of his shots, but does he have the desire and willingness to take some hard fouls? We will soon find out!!!!! Love the vision that Wes be more James Harden like. Not sure Wes can pull off the full beard though.

by rubiorube on Dec 15, 2011 11:41 AM CST up reply actions  

Adelman said in an earlier interview

He tries to let each player do what they are best at and fit the pieces together. Thank God.

Rambis was the complete opposite trying to force all the players to fit his system.

by xraraavis on Dec 15, 2011 12:00 PM CST reply actions  

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