Jimmer and Steph
by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 26, 2011 10:23 PM CST
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PrintOK folks, it's time to really start thinking about the draft. Let's forget for a second that the team we love to follow is being run by someone who doesn't know what he's doing and that no matter how much we may wish otherwise, this year's draft will once again be screwed in a royal fashion. What if the team was run by competents?
One of the most interesting debates in this year's draft will be how much Jimmer Fredette resembles Stephen Curry. Are they similar players? Do they have similar upsides? Should the Wolves draft the nation's leading scorer like they should have drafted Curry in 09? We'll break things down below the fold.
Let's take a look at a few basic stats. One of the things that jumps right out is that Curry put up some stupid numbers over his college career. On most of the metrics we look at, he, at one point or another, had the better mark between him and Jimmer.
Look at Curry's 2%. One of the reasons we really, really, really liked him in the 09 Draft was that he was sort of a reverse Tony Parker. He could dominate a game from mid-range and beyond (instead of the paint) and he could run the hell out of the pick and roll (which would have been great with Kevin Love). Jimmer is not the mid-range shooter that Curry is. He is also not the passer, not even by a long shot.
Take a look at what Curry did at the point in his last year in college. His assist rate is through the roof and...well, if Jimmer is going to give any hope on this front, he needs to maintain a positive PPR for the rest of the year.
Where Jimmer might be an interesting prospect for the Wolves is that he can handle the ball a ton without turning it over while shooting the living hell out of the 3 pointer. I watched the entire SDS/BYU game today and I saw a guy who was literally triple teamed because of his ability to hit the 3 pointer. It was insane. The guy has an uncanny ability to a) get his shot off as quickly as possible and b) square his shoulders to the rim from anywhere on the court. Jimmer doesn't seem to have the mid range game of Curry and he relies too much on splitting double teams that won't happen in the NBA and on getting to the line, but he can hit the living hell out of the 3 pointer.
For the Wolves, Jimmer would provide Curry-esque defense while possessing a good enough handle to not turn the ball over and run the pick and roll. What makes him different than Curry is that he simply doesn't have the track record to show a mid range game like what we saw in Curry. At this point, he's a 3 point specialist in the pros. That makes him a bench player. He relies far too much on getting to the line in situations that simply will not exist in the pros. Watch 5 minutes of his action and you will see him absolutely needing double team splits and free throws. These will dry up in the NBA for a guy with his physical profile. Ditto for Curry. The only thing that made Curry different is that he doesn't/didn't need to muck it up inside the paint. He can kill it from mid-range. He can kill it from beyond the arc. In this sense, he is completely unique from Jimmer. Until Jimmer develops a 15-18 foot game like Curry had while continuing to reduce his reliance on free throws to be efficient, he's a 2nd round pick. Guards like Curry and Fredette need to be good from both 3 and mid range to work in the NBA, as they'll never make a living in the paint.
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Agree that he should normally be a 2nd round pick...
…maybe a late 1st to a team needing that kind of player. However, this year he’s almost assured a spot in the 1st round because the draft will likely be lacking some underclassmen who are frightened into staying in school because of the CBA.
However, as far as playing Stephen Curry defense… I thought Curry would be a better defender than he is now when he came out, but right now he’s pretty bad. From what I’ve seen of Jimmer, he’s not even on Curry’s level.
I do not want Jimmer on this team. Would I rather have him than Flynn? Sure, but that’s only because Jimmer has fire.
NBA Draft Fanatic
Yeah..
….Curry is the better defender, by a lot. That was a stupid line on my part.
That's Mr. Downer to you.
www.canishoopus.com
Fredette
Let me get this straight. Fredette more than likely be national player of the year, guaranteed lottery pick, and similar collegiate stats to curry and you think he’s a 2nd round pick.
by rickyrubio10 on Feb 26, 2011 10:57 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
He's a three point specialist in the NBA
A really glamorous Eddie House. He’s going to lose a fair amount of effectiveness going from college to the pros. The Adam Morrison effect
nice
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 27, 2011 9:46 AM CST up reply actions
Simple draft strategy
Basketball-draft black guys
Hockey-draft white guys
Football-draft white QB’s but black RB’s
JJ Redick
Was a player of the year. Look what he is now.
I think JJ Redick
Is Wayne Ellington’s ceiling. More likely, though, Ellington falls just a hair shy of Redick but is the same type of player.
I like Fredette more than Redick, though. I hope we can land him with the Memphis pick.
Just like a Heisman winner
Who doesn’t go in the first round it’s conceivable for him to be NPOY and go round two.
Personally I agree that he’ll go 15-25.
Watched the game today as well and have big concerns with his defense as well as ability to get to the rim. He had a couple of bad heaves.
Man can he shoot it though. I need to see him play a few more times but I wasn’t as impressed overall as I thought I’d be.
by Tangerine dream on Feb 27, 2011 12:10 AM CST reply actions
I'm not a fan of Jimmer as a pro prospect but this phrasing seems to ignore a basic truthh
The only thing that made Curry different is that he doesn’t/didn’t need to muck it up inside the paint. He can kill it from mid-range. He can kill it from beyond the arc. In this sense, he is completely unique from Jimmer.
Phrasing you hear regularly regarding basketball players: settling for a jump shot. Phrasing you hear never regarding basketball players: settling for a lay-up or settling for a trip to the FT line. Curry had some very real physical limitations in taking the pounding necessary to go at the rim hard consistently and also is probably more laterally quick than quick towards the rim.
I suspect that at whatever point the Wolves would consider taking Jimmer McCamey will still be in the board and I would prefer him by a wide margin. If you want to do a fun comparison check out how similar Deron and McCamey were as juniors in the same system for the same coach at the same school.
Definitely clumsy phrasing on my part
They are very different players and I should have hit that first point home a bit harder. They really do have different games in that sense. I should have edited this one better. I would have taken out the line about defense and focused more on their fundamental difference (Curry’s mid range game and him not needing to get into the paint to be successful).
Also, I’m saving the McCamey article for after the college season. I think he’ll be this year’s big hopeful draft pick on the site, at least from my perspective.
That's Mr. Downer to you.
www.canishoopus.com
You're, apparently, a bit rusty on the draft posts
which is strange because I thought that was what this site was about for 75% of the year…
Whenever I'm about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing.
Jimmer has a tight handle
I was surprised to see him bringing the ball up court so much. Yes, San Diego draped multiple players on him and he did well under the circumstances. But in the NBA against faster and bigger players, I’m uncertain how his game would hold up.
I show him at 6’2’ which in the NBA is point guard material. We know how well diminutive fares in the NBA (i.e., Flynn). Curry is listed at 6’3" as an off-guard.
Appreciate the comparison with Curry and wonder how he stacks up against point guards of the shooting variety?
I like McCamey too but am concerned about his mid-season production drop off.
Dingus Kahn, it's over
No
I think Jimmer will pass to an open teammate occassionally
by Tangerine dream on Feb 27, 2011 8:25 AM CST up reply actions
No way - Ridnour is a pure PG and always has been.
Not saying Ridnour is good or bad, but he’s a PG. Jimmer and Steph are undersized SGs.
jimmer is the primary ballhandler for BYU
and jimmer will not be doubled and tripled teamed in the NBA, so we shall see if he will pass to open teammates…not a lottery pick imo
Reduce turnovers, reduce personal fouls, shoot better, win.
correct
playmaking more than anything determines whether someone is a PG…example Flynn…ugh.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 27, 2011 9:48 AM CST up reply actions
Shooting
I am sorry I am not super educated on the game of college ball, but I have NEVER EVER EVER seen a player pull up from so far out and hit as consistently as Jimmer. He demands attention as soon as he passes half court because he can hit a shot from anywhere. He gets double and triple teamed! In the NBA if 1 or 2 guys go out of position to help cover his quick release and infinite range, it will be much easier for him to take advantage of the talent around him to open up some easy buckets.
His range does seem closer to half court than the three point line!
But his range will be covered by quickness. If he can’t break a guy (one guy not two) down 25 feet from the hoop his shot becomes a non-factor.
More likely he will benefit from a teammate breaking a guy down leaving him open on a double or rotation. This will make him as Oceanary said, a three point specialist. But still haven’t seen enough to really judge. The Tourney will tell a lot.
by Tangerine dream on Feb 27, 2011 8:11 AM CST up reply actions
IF someone were to run the triangle...
wouldn’t Jimmer kind of be the perfect guy? Decent enough handle. Tremendous from deep. So good that he commands additional coverage from the defense or at least one of their best defenders? I think we are selling him a bit short.
Stats and breakdowns of his game can tell us alot, but how are NBA teams going to defend him and what does that mean for his teammates?
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 27, 2011 9:51 AM CST up reply actions
I think he'd be a weapon in any offense.
I don’t know if he’s perfect specifically for The Triangle… I think any offense can utilize a player who can make a defense pay with consistent 3-point range.
But, yes, he’d be a nice fit in The Triangle. I’m actually of the opinion that The Triangle isn’t long for Minnesota. Rambis will get his third year and be canned if he doesn’t win 35-40 games next year. At that point, the new coach will implement more of a pick-and-roll offense because that really seems to fit our personnel the best. And that personnel includes Rubio.
Kahn claims this is his squad
no more major changes…. I can’t see this team winning 35-40 games in the D-league much less the NBA. They’ve quit on Kurt and to be honest themselves this year, bringing back this same group with him as a coach may produce 24 wins…… MAY…..
Kind of how I feel
I don’t think they’ll win 35-40 games next year… I just think Rambis needs to show that type of progress in the standings to keep his job.
(The D-league only played 50 games last year. Less in some previous seasons, too.)
But still, point taken.
"Those things about which we cannot theorize, we must narrate." – Umberto Eco
My thoughts exactly
I’d be good using the Mem pick on him if the draft is as weak as we think it’s going to be.
I’d think he would be a pretty consistent scorer moving from college to the pros (right around 55-60 TS%) just because (and I haven’t seen him, so completely off of what people are saying) he has that range and will be single teamed instead of double or triple teamed. He could be the backup triangle PG that I so badly think Wayne could be.
Whenever I'm about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing.
The only way Wayne could play point is
the 2/3 men were Scottie Pip & Michael. Same way Kerr, Paxson & many others played point for Bulls. The problem is Wolves 2/3 are not playmakers at all. Webster is a stand still shooter as is Wes, Beas is a scorer only. Kurt runs a terrible offense for this team. To his credit Wolves have run less triangle the last few months. They still stink, which poses another problem.
Well said, but I think to Mplax's point,
Wayne is that type of player. If he was surrounded by that talent, he’d have a perfect niche in that system.
As an interesting coincidence to that point, Mitch Kupchak said that draft year that Wayne Ellington would be the best Tar Heel in that draft (in a comparatively so-so Tar Heels Class of Ellington, Hansborough, Lawson and D.Green). I think I’d prefer to have Lawson first out of that class, but I’m not super high on him just because he’ll always be a defensive liability. But as a change-of-pace offensively-gifted back-up, I do like Lawson the most.
Ellington’s shooting is his calling card, but his defense is surprisingly decent. His handles have dramatically improved as well this year, though that won’t ever be his legacy either. In other words, his best NBA skill (shooting) is a nice asset and he doesn’t really hurt us anywhere else.
I’ve maintained that for the draft slot, I think this was Kahn’s 2nd-best value pick behind Rubio. I think Ellington will be a strong rotational player for 10 years, which is excellent value at No. 28,
He'd have fit very well
with Monta Ellis next to him. Or Kobe. Or basically any high usage SG who can handle.
Whenever I'm about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing.
I like Jimmer
I hope we could take him with the MEM pick or something.
2011 Draft Targets: H. Barnes, K. Irving, P. Jones, Jonas V.
Fire Kahn!
San Antonio could probably make a player out of him
But could we? Draft express makes note of the fact that he’s strong and shifty and can use both hands well. He might be the kind of player who will work with all the right coaches to become a good point guard. I think he could become a stronger better Ridnour and there is a tiny chance of a Billups type depending on his actual size. However, 22 years old and not good at defense, i doubt if he develops here.
Glad this topic was posted because...
I was just thinking about this comparison the past couple days. I think they’re entirely similar. Both are undersized SGs who will not make it as traditional PGs. Both are dreadful defensively and both are excellent shooters with good ball-handling capabilities. Regardless of how you cut it, both are weapons that a good coach can really put to use and both will have long, successful careers as complementary options – I don’t think either of them will ever be All-Stars or 1st/2nd options on a perennial playoff team.
That said, I actually reject the notion that Steph is a far superior defender because they are both horrendous. Even if you buy the assumption that Jimmer is worse defensively, we’re talking about degrees of dreadfulness. Once you get as bad as Steph is defensively, it matters not whether Jimmer is the same or marginally worse. Any way you slice it, both will be defensive liabilities in their NBA careers. I also feel that Jimmer’s mid-range game can develop with his handles and overall shooting mechanics. But, yes, that is a current difference in their games.
I actually was thinking The Wolves would be lucky if he slides to their Memphis pick. I think it’s more likely that he’s gone at that point in the draft.
Jimmer will clearly be this year’s hot draft-debate player… just like Curry was two years ago. I remember all the arguments about whether he could play PG, defend or get his shot off in The NBA. He has proven to be a split – he obviously can get his shot off anywhere, but he’s not PG or defender. I think Jimmer will be the same in most ways.
Will the Hoopus Board ever be updated?
"They are exactly where we were," Thunder coach Scott Brooks said. "We were in a lot of close games. The year we won 23 games, that's what the learning is all about. You're learning. You're not losing. Unfortunately, the record says you lost the game, but they're learning how to win and they will figure it out."
Here's some advanced stats to prove we are better than last year:
Our second post about draft targets came a lot earlier last year than it did this year.
Boom. Solid statistical proof that I saw with my eyes.
Whenever I'm about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing.
Reminds me of my favorite Bill Murray quote
from the great movie Space Jam. Jordan “Bill we’re on defense…” Murray “whooaa, whoa i don’t play defense!”
(quoted also from all Timberwolf players)
I watch this team, and i care so much, simply because i can’t not. It’s just a part of who i am..
I like the line, "I'm fixing a dibit"
I'm Trill, I'm running w/ the WOLVES
by running with Twolves (and scissors) on Feb 27, 2011 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
If we still have the mid 1st rounders
and He’s still there I say we get him.
I'm Trill, I'm running w/ the WOLVES
by running with Twolves (and scissors) on Feb 27, 2011 12:19 PM CST reply actions
I'm looking at Marshon Brooks with one of our mid-first rounders.
The guy just had a 52 point game and he is averaging 25 a game in the Big East. He is a true shooting guard. He is a touch on the skinny side (he’s listed at 6’5", 190), but his body control is excellent. He has very good quickness and solid hops.
by Are we cursed? on Feb 27, 2011 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Just looked him up.
It seems like Providence’s up tempo style certainly doesn’t hurt his ppg. But ya I’ll take him if he’s there. He may be The answer to the shooting guard question. HA! nm probably not we are the wolves.
I'm Trill, I'm running w/ the WOLVES
by running with Twolves (and scissors) on Feb 27, 2011 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
I know this doesn't have anything to do with the draft...
but is it just me or are we headed for a losing streak worse than that of the cavs this year. I have a hard time seeing us win a game…
In relation to the draft, I like Trevor Mbakwe out of Minny, and Demetri McCamey. I mostly just watch the big ten, and Sullinger is a killer as well. I think those are the three most notable big ten players. Maybe Kalin Lucas, but I don’t like him at all for this squad. OOPS almost forgot Jajuan Johnson is insane. I love him as a player. I don’t know where Mbakwe McCamey or Johnson are projected to go, but I’d love to get them with the memphis pick..
I have to admit
This is way more fun than all that negative reality .. which is sad on itself .. but .. well .. keep ’m comin
I don't have the time to follow college hoops as much as I'd like to
I have noticed that college 3pt shooting seems to translate pretty well/closely to the pros. Take a look at 3pt shooting for our recent picks and Curry:
Ellington career 3pt%: .402 (.397 in college)
Johnson career 3pt%: .350 (.349 in college)
Flynn career 3pt%: .343 (.333 in college)
Curry career 3pt%: .428 (.412 in college)
Now look at career field goal percentage for these players b/w the pros and college:
Ellington career FG% : .402 (.463 in college)
Johnson career FG%: .414 (.454 in college)
Flynn career FG%: .409 (.460 in college)
Curry career FG%: .470 (.467 in college)
While our 3 picks all have seen their FG% tumble significantly in the pros (while maintaining their 3pt percentages), Curry has maintained his high FG% from college along with a high 3pt percentage.
This seems to suggest there was something about Curry’s non-3pt game (his mid-range game, as you said) translated well, while Ellington, Johnson, and Flynn haven’t had whatever made them successful from the field in college translate to the NBA. That’s without even looking at ability to get to the line, which is something none of them do very well.
maybe
the fact that curry had a very high usage rate in college. I remember SnP stating that this ment his % percentage was legit and therefor it is no surprise it holds up in the pro’s as well..
by Wim (Belgium) on Feb 27, 2011 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
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