Drafting: The Lead Guard Edition

First there were wings, then there were lead guards.  Here are the unadjusted scores:

 

  1. Kyrie Irving, 46.72
  2. Norris Cole, 38.76
  3. Kemba Walker, 36.58
  4. Darius Morris, 33.88
  5. Tu Holloway, 33.08
  6. Jimmer Fredette, 32.78
  7. Reggie Jackson, 32.58
  8. Nolan Smith, 31.2
  9. Isiah Thomas, 30.85
  10. Ashton Gibbs, 28.83
  11. Demetri McCamey, 28.67
  12. Kalin Lucas, 25.34
  13. Brandon Knight, 23.67
  14. Josh Selby, 19.06
Adjusted scores and thoughts below the fold. 

 

  1. Kyrie Irving, 66.47
  2. Kemba Walker, 58.29
  3. Norris Cole, 52.84
  4. Darius Morris, 51.03
  5. Reggie Jackson, 50.160
  6. Jimmer, 49.96
  7. Tu Holloway, 49.85
  8. Nolan Smith, 45.56
  9. Isiah Thomas, 45.37
  10. Ashton Gibbs, 45.18
  11. Demetri McCamey, 44.015
  12. Kalin Lucas, 42.87
  13. Josh Selby, 31.75
Random thoughts:
  • I thought Alec Burks' score (54.35) would stand up as the best non-Irving score in the draft.  Kemba Walker snuck in ahead of him.  Kemba may be a junior but he's still only 20 and he had a fairly solid year.  I'll say it again: everything David Kahn thought he saw in Jonny Flynn seems to actually exist in Kemba Walker.  
  • The most interesting dilemma of the draft for the Wolves is this: If they don't land Kyrie Irving, do they trade the pick?  Does a 17 win team trade their top pick in a weak draft?  After all, can the youngest team in the league add yet another rookie to the core mix?  To me, this is an insane question.  You don't trade top picks.  I don't care how weak of a draft it is.  Any thought of the Wovles trading the pick further underscores just how poorly David Kahn has done his job since coming aboard 2 years ago.  They've had 6 first round picks and very little to show for it.  The core should already be in place.  "Significant fine tuning" should not include trading away a lotto pick, no matter how bad a team is at running the draft or how weak the draft may appear to be.  The fact remains that this team needs additional talent.  Period. 
  • I really want to like guys like Josh Selby and Demetri McCamey but they had awful, no-good years.  All year long I had a McCamey Dark Horse post prepped and ready to go.  Then he came out and shat all over the place.  Selby just looks (hey, the eyeball test!) like he should be a good lead guard in the NBA.   Despite his awful score, I just can't get past the idea that Selby would be worth a look with the Memphis pick. 
  • Kyrie Irving, Kyrie Irving, Kyrie Irving.  It's a 1-man draft and the Wolves need to win the lotto.  Irving + Love is something you can really build around.  Irving would make up for a lot of David Kahn stupidity.  How crazy is the NBA?  Imagine a league where you can perform in the bottom-most percentile of your peer group only to be rewarded with a franchise-level talent that will mask the decisions and front-office talents that landed you at the bottom.  If the Wolves land Irving and make it to 30 wins, does that have anything at all to do with David Kahn?  It's a crazy league.  
  • Jimmer at 20?  If he makes it past Phoenix and Utah, I think it could happen if they don't take a lead guard with the top pick.  
  • Do you think the fanbase could take a Kemba Walker selection with the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick? 
Overall weighted rankings:

  1. Kyrie Irving, 66.47
  2. Kemba Walker, 58.29
  3. Alec Burks, 54.355
  4. Norris Cole, 52.84
  5. Darius Morris, 51.03
  6. Reggie Jackson, 50.16
  7. Jimmer, 49.96
  8. Tu Holloway, 49.85
  9. Derrick Williams, 49.131
  10. Kawhi Leonard, 48.178
  11. David Lighty, 46.344
  12. Marshon Brooks, 45.77
  13. Nolan Smith, 45.56
  14. Isiah Thomas, 45.37
  15. Ashton Gibbs, 45.18
  16. Brandon Knight, 44.24
  17. Demitri McCamey, 44.01
  18. Jeremy Lamb, 43.96
  19. Travis Leslie, 43.778
  20. Kalin Lucas, 42.87
  21. Jordan Hamilton, 42.808
  22. Jeff Taylor, 43.469
  23. Jon Diebler, 42.305
  24. Harrison Barnes, 41.835
  25. Damian Saunders, 41.688
  26. Klay Thompson, 41.49
  27. Austin Freeman, 41.275
  28. Deshaun Thomas, 40.549
  29. Malcolm Lee, 39.026
  30. Justin Harper, 38.756
  31. Chandler Parsons, 38.3
  32. CJ Leslie, 38.24
  33. Tyler Honeycutt, 37.872
  34. Elias Harris, 36.47
  35. Scotty Hopson, 34.706
  36. Kyle Singler, 34.549
  37. Josh Selby, 31.75
We still have to adjust for perceived value (where do we think they will actually get drafted) and whether or not they will be able to maintain their style of play in the NBA.  Derrick Williams may be 8th on this list but he clearly has more value in the draft.  Also, his role in the NBA is clearly going to be more similar to his role at Arizona than Jimmer's role at BYU was to where ever it is he ends up playing.  One of the things I look for above all else is a high usage rate with efficient production.  The next logical question is this: who keeps their usage rate close to their college numbers in the pros, and what reduced-usage players will be able to produce in the NBA in a different role?  What kind of player is Alec Burks with a reduced usage rate and the ball in someone else's hands?  Also, what players score will change if they are moved to a different position (cough...Derrick Williams as a PF/big: 58.7...cough)? 

Until later. 

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