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Tim's Offseason Interview Series: Henry Abbott

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Henry Abbott is the founder of the preeminent NBA blog TrueHoop and a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. I caught up with him to ask about the CBA, small market issues and blogging in sports. You can read more from Henry Abbott here at TrueHoop.

Star-divide

Tim Allen: Let's start by talking a little bit about the CBA. Given 'The Decision' and all of that, do you think that small market teams - like the Timberwolves - need something to change in order to help them keep their star players? Do you think franchise tags could be an answer?

Henry Abbott: I'm totally against franchise tags. I believe that skilled front offices and owners should be rewarded. If Donald Sterling is such a bad owner, but the league hands him Blake Griffin, Sterling should have to work to keep him. He shouldn't be able to keep Griffin just by lucking into him in the draft. We don't necessarily need to have 30 teams and teams that can't win should be out. Miami and Cleveland are the same market size. If Cleveland had done a better job of surrounding LeBron with talent, maybe he doesn't leave for Miami.

Allen: Do you think that players are driving this a little bit more than before, though? Are they starting to run the show in terms of player movement and league balance?

Abbott: Certain players are more valuable to their teams and they drive the value up. There are only a few players running things. Kareem had power, too, but not like Wade, LeBron and a few others. Players are not taking a backseat anymore. It's not a perfect system, but small markets can win and have won. The players will come if the situation is right.

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Allen: If Wade had been drafted by Minnesota instead of Miami, do you think he could've conviced Bosh and LeBron to come to the Wolves?

Abbott: Well, Wade has a special relationship with the owner of the Heat [Micky Arison] and with the team. There was a lot of long term planning involved in what happened this summer. But Kevin Garnett got people to come to Minnesota. People mention the weather and all of that, but I think its more important that players are going into a stable situation where they have a chance to win.

Allen: Switching gears a little bit, given that sports blogs are becoming increasing popular vs. traditional journalism, do you see any problems with a lack of accountability? Given that anyone can start a blog or write an article on a blog, without the same credibility concerns as a newspaper beat writer, do you think that is a concern?

Abbott: Everyone is reachable. GMs and other team personnel can still contact a blog writer. I feel like blogs are more accountable. I misspelled Dwyane Wade's name in an article a while back, and I instantly was corrected by several commentors. In the future, with blogs, credibility will be king. You have to be careful what you publish because no one will care what you write if your credibility is gone.

Allen: And how does the use of advanced stats figure into that credibility?

Abbott: It's harder to bull---t. When I first started to write, we were routinely using stats in horrible ways. People were implying correlations that weren't actually there. Everyone used per game stats and actually making decisions based on those stats now is unforgivable. We certainly don't have it all figured out now. But in the early days, it was harder to separate good from bad. By not using new tools, you will be left behind.

Look at someone like Corey Brewer who is a +/- All-Star. He's a great perimeter defender. Even on a bad team, he had a good +/-. But he was traded to New York, let go by the Knicks and then signed by Dallas. If Mike D'Antoni wasn't going to play him, he wasn't going to keep him. It was known, however, that he could be valuable and [Mark Cuban] is trying to take advantage of that.

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Allen: What do you think about the opinion of Phil Jackson, among others, who suggest that Kevin Love pads his stats by going after easy rebounds and things like that?

Abbott: Phil is just playing mind games. I think that's a crock.

Allen: What is your reaction to David Kahn's opinion that advanced stats are less valuable for rebuilding teams?

Abbott: I don't know that Kahn's necessarily wrong. It's insecure to make decisions in the NBA. The old rules are no good anymore. GMs are getting beat up badly when they make decisions. Stats make some people nervous, which is why it definitely needs to mean something if you make a move. More information is not necessarily valuable. More good information is useful.

(Big thanks to Mr. Abbott for taking the time for this interview.)

Comment 54 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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Good stuff

So, um, how did you pull this off? Canis is not four-letter’s Wolves blog within their True Hoop system.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra

by Wile E Coyote on Apr 22, 2011 2:29 PM CDT reply actions  

I actually caught up with him at the Sloan conference back in March.

He was very willing to give me a few minutes. He seems like a fantastic guy.

Everything in the computer need my face on it. Mega Gigabytes, son!

by TimAllen on Apr 22, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I have it on good authority

that he is, indeed, awesome.

I assume that Taylor, Kahn, and Rambis know what they're doing.

by PoorDick on Apr 22, 2011 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

I liked him before...

…but even more now.

Great job TA! You continue to impress. This was an excellent interview.

Let’s send you to more conferences.

by Django Z on Apr 23, 2011 2:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

I've conversed with him via email a few times...

… and he’s always been amazing and positive. Cool dude.

by TheH on Apr 23, 2011 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why would you exclude those two?

Everything in the computer need my face on it. Mega Gigabytes, son!

by TimAllen on Apr 22, 2011 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

why would you include those two?

They didn’t come here, they were traded here. They were, in fact, asses when it came time to re-sign (or not) here.

Nice stuff, though.

by rickyp on Apr 22, 2011 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's true. Good point.

Everything in the computer need my face on it. Mega Gigabytes, son!

by TimAllen on Apr 22, 2011 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hey! How could we not want Mike James?

After all, he lit us up! Same with Craig Monroe against the Twins. Couldn’t do it versus anyone else, but the Twins signed him and soon found that unless it was intrasquad, Monroe couldn’t hit. That’s what you get by ignoring the stats and especially the advanced stats.

You can't dust for vomit.

by twinstalker on Apr 26, 2011 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

I have to admit

He had a good season the year before with Toronto stat wise. I had him in fantasy and for what that was worth he did well. Didn’t translate to many wins per say in real basketball. I thought at least he would score when we got him but he was a one year contract year wonder. Once he got paid the real Mike James came out.

by Doug West Domination!!! on Apr 26, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, McHale actually brought them here

KG did help talk Mike James into signing a big deal here.

Hmm. Well, his heart was in the right place.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra

by Wile E Coyote on Apr 22, 2011 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Doh - looks like faster typers than me already said this stuff

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra

by Wile E Coyote on Apr 22, 2011 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Look at you, hobnobbing with people I've heard of!

Good job — thanks for doing this.

It’s interesting that he’s so pro-Brewer based on +/-, while other advanced stats say that Brewer’s not so good. I guess he’d say that it’s the defensive intangibles (or hard-to-track-ibles) that produce the favorable +/- but don’t show up in other, more offense-based stats.

by Madison Dan on Apr 22, 2011 2:47 PM CDT reply actions  

On a playoff team thats been looking for a starting SG and defense forever

Brewer has played 4 mins so far.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks

I am rooting for the guy, but he is probably lucky he got a multi-year deal.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra

by Wile E Coyote on Apr 22, 2011 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

In those four minutes, he accumulated

1 rebound
2 fouls

I assume that Taylor, Kahn, and Rambis know what they're doing.

by PoorDick on Apr 22, 2011 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Can you calculate his PER please?

I don’t understand per-game stats.

Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."

by Xand1 on Apr 23, 2011 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Make it easy:

If he’d gotten 36 minutes as a starter, Corey Brewer would have recorded 9 rebounds and 18 fouls.

by feral on Apr 25, 2011 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll reserve judgment until I see how they use him next year.

I just thought it was interesting that Abbott basically said “we used to say some silly things before we used advanced stats” and then went on to say something that some people who LOVE advanced stats (you know who you are) would consider silly.

by Madison Dan on Apr 22, 2011 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

this always kind of pisses me off
We don’t necessarily need to have 30 teams and teams that can’t win should be out.

Same as the old “MN has only themselves to blame” refrain in the post-Joe Smith days. This view suggests that we, as a fan base, are as much to blame as management.

Where is the justice in fans suffering sanctions (or worse -the loss of a team!) as the result of the misdeeds or incompetence of management? One could argue that we suffer enough, merely by what we see on the court.

by dontbesomean youngfella on Apr 22, 2011 3:06 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't see that as blaming the fans.

I guess the fans are kind of like innocent bystanders.

Everything in the computer need my face on it. Mega Gigabytes, son!

by TimAllen on Apr 22, 2011 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Relegation

It needs to happen. Make the D-League matter for a number of reasons.

That's Mr. Downer to you.
www.canishoopus.com

by Stop-n-Pop on Apr 22, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

I love the idea

But everything about the D-League would need to be restructured. Wouldn’t be able to have D-League call-ups and all of that, plus if you have relegation, you’d need to have promotion. I doubt that many NBA players would be happy about traveling to play the Montana Valley Wizard Warriors.

I bet if the NBA really committed to the idea it could work, but that would take a bunch of negotiation and rewriting of the CBA, wouldn’t it?

by Dumbhead62 on Apr 22, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Awesome!

One of my most favorite things about the EPL.

by Django Z on Apr 23, 2011 2:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

right...

I wasn’t suggesting that he was truly blaming fans – but the net result is the same. MN ownership screws up? F**** ’em, get rid of the team. They have only themselves to blame.

At the risk of revealing CH as “radical left-wing politics cleverly disguised as basketball fandom,” this is somewhat like supporters of far-right wing politics saying “People screw up their own lives and now they want subsidized housing paid for by my tax dollars? Screw ’em!”

Yeah, ok, but how about their kids?

by dontbesomean youngfella on Apr 22, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Socialist scum.

Screw their kids, too!

(I’m trying to channel my inner conservative, but it still feels slimy even when I’m kidding).

"Of what use is a philosopher who does not hurt anybody's feelings?" -Diogenes of Sinope

by Cynical Jason on Apr 22, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

and THEN...

…what if, to add insult to injury, somebody came and took away their kids’ Feel Good Friday.

by dontbesomean youngfella on Apr 22, 2011 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Corey Brewer Sucks

I don’t care what +/- tells me.

by Ebomb on Apr 22, 2011 3:55 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

I'll miss him.

When the game was lost in the 1st half and it was a struggle to watch at least with Brewer you had the chance to watch a player steal the ball, miss a dunk, scramble for rebound and throw up a prayer while falling out of bounds. Sometimes it might even be on the same play. I don’t believe his on court production made us better, but it was entertaining in it’s own right.

by Airete on Apr 22, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Reced up

I think Corey, was along with AT and Love, someone who played hard and gave us good entertainment value for our dollars. No we didn’t win any more games because of him, but at 17 wins a season, entertainment and energy is as good as it gets…
Tim, thanks for the post. Whenever I’ve heard Henry Abbott on ESPN today, he’ always come across as a humble guy who has a good sense of humor, unlike Ryen Russillo.

Smug liberal elitist Uptown hipster since before last week...

by Dogpile on Apr 22, 2011 5:40 PM CDT reply actions  

I like Henry, but come on

KG recruited exactly nobody of any value to come to the Wolves. Remember the Michael Finley thing? Abbott knows his stuff but loses some credibility with a statement like that.

by MoreJuice on Apr 23, 2011 12:15 AM CDT reply actions  

That's true

I’m surprised he made a mistake like that.

by Django Z on Apr 23, 2011 2:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

What do you want him to say?

“You’re right. Your favorite team was doomed from the start because of its weather.”

I’m inclined to give Abbott a little bit of slack because of how much I love most everything that he does through TrueHoop, so I’ll defend him here. 1) He’s opting to support a hopeful notion rather than a doom-filled one. 2) He’s on the spot looking for evidence to support his claim, and it’s a whole lot to ask of a league-wide NBA analyst to recall specific details from 5+ years ago about a franchise as forgettable as the Wolves have been.

I’ll take more of the blue pill, thank you. Even if he doesn’t have the ideal, Wolves-specific evidence to support his claim that this particular small market isn’t hopeless, I’d like to believe him anyway.

If it wasn't for Jordan Farmar and that guy Kevin Love, I would've killed somebody!

by John Doe on Apr 23, 2011 5:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would have really, really liked for him to address this nonsense

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/18744/shaquille-oneal-vs-darko-milicic-a-bet

Heck he even brings the perpetually wrong David Thorpe in for support with the absurd claim that since Darko was wanted in MN that he would be a better, different player

Milicic is finally wanted

I had the idea for this post, and was kind of excited about it. Then I looked at Milicic’s and O’Neal’s stats last season. They were really not close. Milicic’s PER was 12.8 — below average for all players. O’Neal’s was 17.9 — which is above average and frankly not bad. Because of their ages, I was willing to project one up and the other down … but that much? The idea was essentially dead.

I called Thorpe. I told him my original idea, and asked him to help me brainstorm a better candidate than Milicic.

He said he thought Milicic was perfect. The first words out of his mouth were “royal jelly.” As a player development coach, Thorpe is convincing that a supportive coach, and lots of minutes are important to inspiring players to do their very best. We have delved into this point at length in the past.

In any case, it’s hard to imagine a player who has been more beat up in his first few NBA seasons. Milicic was scorned as a draft pick, then nailed to the bench as a player. If coaches can inspire a young player to greatness with belief and trust, he experienced the precise opposite of that.

Minnesota — where the GM recently said he was “like manna from heaven” — is the first team to really try treating him differently. Thorpe’s bet is that such an approach is likely to inspire the best play of Milicic’s young career, and I’ve found you can do worse than to trust the hoops insights of one David Thorpe.

by Ailuridae on Apr 24, 2011 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

you can't instill inspiration in players that don't already have it.

Darko just doesn’t have it. Some people will never do what it takes to succeed. Some players never sacrifice.

No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.

by TheEvilProfessor on Apr 24, 2011 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's my worry with Beast

occasionally inspired, usually just another body going through the motions.

by zebano on Apr 25, 2011 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

Beas has the want

but his motor seems to go in direct relation to his emotional state. While even happy Darko seem to have to fake motivation.

by M.Maguire on Apr 26, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah I think you have 2 choices

1. Deal him away now, let someone else try the SF spot (I prefer Webster over Johnson, but w/e).
2. Get a coach who is willing to bench him when he’s not playing hard.

I prefer to try and rid ourselves of both Beas and Darko and get a new coach.

by zebano on Apr 27, 2011 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

That is so so cool that you got to talk with Abbott.

He and Hollinger are my favorite ESPN NBA guys by far. Really cool of him to take the time to talk to a fan with basically no credentials, just because said fan asked. And to your credit, Tim, I’m impressed by your ability to come up with a bunch of worthwhile questions on the fly. That’s not easy. I might have gotten one or two in before my mind blanked.

If it wasn't for Jordan Farmar and that guy Kevin Love, I would've killed somebody!

by John Doe on Apr 23, 2011 5:18 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Appreciate it, John.

And yeah, I definitely agree. It was very cool of him to take the time.

Everything in the computer need my face on it. Mega Gigabytes, son!

by TimAllen on Apr 23, 2011 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm afraid I find

this veneration quite questionable. Being on ESPN means nothing to me. They are the sports pimps, nothing more. Their opinions are no more valid than your own, its just that they get royally compensated to spout. Please don’t feel too honored to touch the hem of their garments. Very few national sports media figures have any love for MN, and it probably goes down to something as basic and as petty as our location and our weather. Covering teams here is more difficult for them than in other, larger, warmer cities. Therefore, screw them.

by ogishkemuncie on Apr 23, 2011 10:07 AM CDT reply actions  

Wow. This seems pretty over-the-top.

I don’t think there is anyone here “worshiping” Henry Abbott or any other ESPN personality. Look above in the comments. There’s plenty of disagreement with Abbott’s opinions just in this little interview. But there is no denying that Abbott brings a lot of new ideas and new information about basketball to a mainstream audience. The TrueHoop blog, especially the Bullets, are must reads for me.

Everything in the computer need my face on it. Mega Gigabytes, son!

by TimAllen on Apr 23, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

indeed

No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.

by TheEvilProfessor on Apr 24, 2011 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

here, here

ogishkemuncie, do you even know who Henry Abbot is or have you ever read his writing? He’s excellent. And TrueHoop is a real gift to NBA fans.

by Django Z on Apr 27, 2011 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

I will admit to getting irritated

Whenever I see Ric Bucher pop on the screen after his Derrick Rose is a better player then Lebron take.

"Vote Ailuridae for Wolves GM"

by Jose Cordoba on Apr 23, 2011 12:55 PM CDT reply actions  

And not before then?

Bucher was always a hack with nothing to offer. He’s Craig Sager with better suits.

If it wasn't for Jordan Farmar and that guy Kevin Love, I would've killed somebody!

by John Doe on Apr 24, 2011 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

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