The elephant in the room is that we don't know how the new CBA will look.  That said let's take a look at how the key players in the upcoming free agency market are positioned.

*note all salary numbers are from the team salary database located at www.shamsports.com

On the books: $43,422,824

The Warriors have 8 players on the books for next year with total salary commitments of $43,422,824

Monta Ellis            $11,000,000

David Lee              $11,610,000

Andris Biedrins    $9,000,000

Dorell Wright         $3,823,000

Ekpe Udoh            $3,294,960

Stephen Curry      $3,117,120

Jeremy Lin            $788,872 (unguaranteed)

Jeff Adrien             $788,872 (only $50,000 guaranteed if waived by 6/20/2011)

Player options/Early termination options: $6,502,920

Charlie Bell           $4,099,920

Louis Amundson $2,403,000

Restricted Free Agents:

Reggie Williams

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Vladimir Radmanovic

Acie Law

Rodney Carney

Al Thornton

2011 Draft picks:

11th and 43rd overall

Trade Exceptions:

$2,000,000 A. Morrow

$1,800,000 C. Watson

Breakdown:

Unless Charlie Bell or Louis Amundson walk a way from the last year of their respective deals the Warriors will have just under $50,000,000 committed prior to signing their draft picks.  The 11th pick will get a salary of between 80-120% of $1,827,400.  It's almost certain the rookie would be signed for 120% at this is standard practice.  So with their 11th pick signed and Bell and Amundson playing out their contracts the Warriors would have 11 players on the books for a total of $52,118,624.  They could free up another million and a half by waiving their unguaranteed players, but would face cap-hold nearly as large as these contracts until they reach the 12 player roster minimum.  Based on the current CBA the Warriors would have some room to pursue a quality FA, but they would not be in a position to "throw money at" Nene, Jordan, Gasol etc.  If the Warriors do want to become major players in this upcoming free agent market they will need a salary dump.  I have a hard time believing they find a taker for Biedrins.  Similarly David Lee's a talented player, but with roughly $69 million left over the next 5 years of his deal I would amazed to see him moved this off season.  That leaves Ellis and Wright as I assume there is no chance either Curry or Udoh would be considered for a salary dump.  Wright started and played well for the Warriors and is a bargain at his under $4 million.  Ellis has been the Warriors fringe all-star and one of the fan favorites, but it comes to this: if the Warriors want to make a major play for one the free agent centers available this year they will likely have to part with Ellis in a salary dump for younger cheaper talent.  Free agency outlook for the Warriors is solid for mid-level players unless they shake things up.