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Our Flotsam, their potential

The draft being what it is, I tend to overvalue new potential as opposed to old potential (i.e. Biyombo excites me more than Randolph). Since Williams plays the same position as Love we cannot easily draft him and I have about 5 players who should be drafted between 5-15 that I really like:

Valanciunas, Vesely, Biyombo, Burks, Leonard, K. Thompson

and the ones I don't like: Knight, Walker, Kanter, Fredette, M. Morris.

 

The reason I bring this up is that we have a plethora of "potential" sitting on our bench, most of whom have had the first and second shots in the NBA without showing enough to make them indispensable. Sure I would like to trade for a Goerge, Iggy, Gortat, Monta, etc. but assuming it doesn't happen these are the guys I would happily move in some combination for a lottery pick (or a 2012 1st rounder).

prioritized least wanted to most wanted:
Darko, Flynn, Ellington, Johnson, Beasley, Pek, Tolliver, Webster (I'm irrational, I accept this), Randolph, Ridnour

 

So.. the point of this whole article is that I went to http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-history/ to look at the historical cost of a lottery pick going back to 2004 (when I had to go to work).

Star-divide

2010

Hornets trade #11 (Cole Aldrich) +Morris Peterson for #21 + #26

2009

Page doesn't list transactions but since I know that Foye + Miller = 5 + Songlia + Pecherov + Thomas

After some perusing I didn't find any other lottery picks moving but I can't guarantee that is correct.

2008

Traded Mayo(#3), Greg Buckner, Antoine Walker, and Marko Jaric for Kevin Love (#5), Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins.
Traded Bayless(#11) and Ike Diogu for Brandon Rush (#13), Jarrett Jack, and Josh McRoberts

2007

Jeff Green (#5) Traded with Wally Szerbiak for Ray Allen.
Brandan Wright (#8) Traded for Jason Richardson
Joakim Noah (#9) Acquired as part of the Eddy Curry Trade
Acie Law (#11) Acquired as part of Al Harrington Trade
Rodney Stuckey (#15) Pick acquired in Darko Milicic Trade

2006

LMAldrige Blazers trade Viktor Khryapa + #4 (Tyrus Thomas) to Chicago for #2 and the Chicago 2007 2nd rounder
MN trades draft rights to Brandon Roy (#6) to Portland for the draft rights to Randy Foye (#7)
Celtics trade Dan Dickau, Raef LaFrentz, and the draft rights to Randy Foye (#7) to Portland for Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, and a 2008 second-round selection. Portland trades the draft rights to Randy Foye (#7) to Minnesota for the draft rights of Brandon Roy (#6)
Memphis trades Shane Battier for Stromile Swift and the rights to Rudy Gay (#8).
Chicago trades cash, the draft rights to Rodney Carney, and a 2007 second round pick to Philadelphia for the draft rights to Thabo Sefolosha (#13).
Cedric Simmons (#15) From Milwaukee as part of Jamal Magloire / Desmond Mason trade.


2005
Utah traded the rights to #6 (Martell Webster), #27 (Linas Kleiza), a 2006 first round pick (#30 Joel Freeland) to Portland for the rights to Deron Williams (#3).
Sean May (#13) Acquired for selection of Jahidi White in expansion draft via Phoenix's Wesley Person deal.


2004
Emeka Okafur (#2) Acquired from Clippers for selection of Predrag Drobnjak in expansion draft, #4 (Shaun Livingston), and #33.
Devin Harris (#5) Traded with Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner to Dallas for Antawn Jamison.
Luol Deng (#7) Traded to Chicago for a future first round pick and #31.




Thanks to DraftExpress for the info.


Conclusion:
-There are usually 1-3 lottery picks moved in a given year though about half of them are pick swaps (8/20).
-Most top 10 picks are part of a deal for an established player.
-Picks 10-15 are more likely to be available for the type of player we're trying to move (see Sean May, Cedric Simmons, Stuckey & Aldrich).
-Realistically, I think Beasley, Johnson, and Randolph could bring back lottery picks given the right situation (Beasley to Bucks?) but I doubt the other guys will.
I really think Kahn has a difficult road to hoe but a lot of that is his own fault.

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I was looking in on the phoenix blog a couple of days ago.

They seemed to have an interest in Beasley+ Flynn for the #13 pick . IMO this would not be a bad deal from Beasley and Flynns point of view. However, the throw in was likely to be Robin Lopez for the 20. not exactly stellar. IMO Beasley is still worth a little more than a #13.

by mr.sorbet on Jun 14, 2011 11:33 AM CDT reply actions  

I think I would do that

It gives us a reasonable shot of getting one of Biyombo/Burks/Thompson

Draft Val or Williams at #2….

That said, I’ve pretty well given up on Beasley.

by zebano on Jun 14, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd do it immediately

We could walk away from this with Derrick Williams, Lopez, and Biyombo/Burks all while using Beasley to get rid of Flynn? Sign me up. Not that Lopez is great, but he’s probably better than what we’ll take at 20.

by BeasleBong on Jun 14, 2011 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Beasley to the Bucks would be for the 10.

They already have good defense and a good center yet Giovani thinks that is where Biyombo goes. I read they really like Burks. I would say, you know you can get offense with Beasley and he can play the four next to a great center. Burks? you might get him but maybe someone takes him at 8 or 9 (or even higher). This trade makes sense if we could get Burks Valenciuna or even Biyombo for us as well. Then we will likely stash a player for a year.

by mr.sorbet on Jun 14, 2011 12:13 PM CDT reply actions  

good perspective...

and i would think that the minimum bar for #2 value should be the Jeff Green trade…i’m confident we’ll get good value….this is Kahn’s “Bron 4th Qtr” Moment…go to the cup Kahn!

http://loisaidabbclub.tumblr.com/
Twitter: @loisaidabbclub

by beatsandpeasnyc on Jun 14, 2011 12:33 PM CDT reply actions  

NBA .com has a new story on Biyombo a good read.

First off, man is this guy a power house ! Also when asked," in the NBA who do you watch", his answer is Kevin Love. He watches how he gets rebounds.

by mr.sorbet on Jun 14, 2011 1:36 PM CDT reply actions  

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