It doesn't sound like they like him at all...RT @twolfpsychology: Do you think the wolves would consider Biyombo at #2?
11 months ago
jianfu
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Sucks
Losing hope that this draft will go well
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jun 15, 2011 10:47 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I would think Kahn's either learned
or been told that he’s not to reveal what his on his mind at all times. He’s not trading Corey Brewer, “no comment” on Rubio’s status—my guess is they want to get a veteran starting wing and Biyombo from this draft, and are willing to part with the #2, #20, and anybody besides Love and Rubio to do so.
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by PoorDick on Jun 15, 2011 11:54 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
This tweet implies to me
that we don’t like him at #2 or at any pick in the draft. But your subterfuge take sounds appealingly rec’worthy.
Derrick Williams is going to Bust...as a Small Forward.
Not surprised
Counting down the days before we draft Derrick Williams, make no draft day trades, trade away Beasley for nothing post lockout, and have a another terrible year with no improvements in the win/loss column. I hope to be proven wrong, but when the biggest offseason priority for the teams’ GM is job security, I shouldn’t expect him to pick a high risk high reward player like BIyombo. Even if his skillset directly addresses a long standing team weakness. Sigh. At least we got Rubio in the fold, at least for the next 5 minutes…
Derrick Williams is going to Bust...as a Small Forward.
this is my thinking
I’ve have a sliver of hope that I’m wrong, but…ugh
I haven't written an insightful post in years.
Biyombo
I just don’t get why so many people here are gaga about Biyombo. He’s a huge risk; he’d take several years before he’s ready to play; the TWolves have a poor record of drafting big men (of drafting period; Biyombo strength is shot blocking, yet for much of last year, a wolves center lead the league in shot blocking — so why is this such a big need?
you're right
with Darko, this team is set at Center. Trust in Darko.
Biyombo already does two things (rebound and block shots) at an elite level in a (the second best) professional league.
The thing that Derrick Williams does well (shoot efficiently and hit three pointers at a high rate) he did in college and there is evidence that those skills don’t translate well into the NBA.
Williams is just as risky as Biyombo. He’s also older and plays the same position as the team’s best player.
Not drafting Biyombo is absurd.
I haven't written an insightful post in years.
Williams as risky as Biyombo?
The thing that Derrick Williams does well (shoot efficiently and hit three pointers at a high rate) he did in college and there is evidence that those skills don’t translate well into the NBA.
Williams is just as risky as Biyombo. He’s also older and plays the same position as the team’s best player.
i just can’t see that. Biyombo could be the best player taken if he develops a better offensive game and is as dominant on defense that it looks like he could be. However I think at worst Williams is a bench player and to me it is possible Biyombo is out of the league in a few years, so Biyombo is a great risk. Of course if you are saying he isn’t as great of a risk if you were taking him later in the draft I understand that, but I think he is a big reach and risk at #2. I could get on the Biyombo band wagon – I just hope the Wolve are smart enough and or are able to trade down and grab a sg vet or something in the process of getting him – without getting something else he is a bigger risk to me.
by Breaking Ankles on Jun 16, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Biyombo will always have a place in the league
big men with his athleticism, rebounding ability, block shot ability (?) stay in the league.
We know that he rebounds and blocks shots at an exceptional level in the second best pro league.
That will transfer to the NBA with about 90% certainty.
Williams, on the other hand, does nothing but score at any exceptional level. And, there a much less than 50% change that his scoring ability is exceptional in the NBA. so what is Williams if he is only an average or below average scorer. He’s a bench player who has no exceptional qualities. In other words, he doesn’t get off the bench much.
None of this is guaranteed. But you draft guys who have exceptional abilities that are most likely to continue in the NBA.
I haven't written an insightful post in years.
I think I found the study that uses the R^ 2 on field goal percentage
done by Jon Nichols originally. it shows that based on his study only 34 percent of a college players points per game, shooting percentage or points per minute can be explained by their college performance.. But what does this mean? First,the study doesn’t state the parameters such as how close did the NBA numbers have to come to qualify? Second, notice there were three things mentioned with the same apx correlation and all are considered important by scouts and talent evaluators. How a person scores is also considered important. I think Derrick Williams like Biyombo have the focus to improve. Derrick probably knows what the NBA will be like a little better and likel;y will be very good. Biyombo likely will have a long ways to go. Hand checking rule? Man to Man vrs Zone, fouling him because he can’t hit free throws quality of his hands? can’t shoot from any distance? Believe it or not Darko plays decent Defense and blocks shots. He doesn’t have great hands and doesn’t shoot well. We already are a decent rebounding team.. I doubt Biyombo will produce a single win this coming year. So there is a reason he will not go in the top 5 and probably could be had with a top 8 pick with 90 percent likelyhood. I don’t know why the name Mutombo is never mentioned with this guy but in personality and physically and in background aren’t they similar? I really want this guy to succeed but be realistic. It probably will take 3 to 4 years.
....
the study doesn’t state the parameters such as how close did the NBA numbers have to come to qualify?
That isn’t how it works.
What he did was build a model that uses college stats to predict pro stats. Something like:
NBA_FG% = alpha + beta(NCAA_FG%) + residual (i.e. unknown).
If a player with a 50 FG% in college always has a 50 FG% in NBA and a player with an NCAA 36% has an NBA 36% the r^2 is 1. The predictive power of NCAA FG% is absolute and the unknown component is 0. You don’t need any other information to predict NBA shooting. The same is true if the translation is a clean phase-shift where the NBA is more difficult, but in a simple way such that all players’ NBA rates are something like 0.8 of their NCAA rates. In this case NCAA in of 50% will be an NBA rate of 40% and a NCAA of 36% will be an NBA of 28.8%, but the r^2 for NCAA FG% will still be 1 and there will be no unknown component. For blocking, rebounding, and assisting, the model that best predicts NBA performance is almost this simple. The r^2 for NCAA stats is really high, and the unknown component is minimal. If you were the best shot-blocker in college, you will almost certainly be the best shot-blocker (of your cohort) in the NBA. This isn’t the case for the scoring statistics. If you plug in an NCAA rate of 50% you may get an NBA rate of 50%, 30%, 60%, you just don’t know all that well.
NCAA numbers aren’t enough information to predict NBA scoring, we need to plug more information into the model to get useful predictions. You hit on the likely solution to this problem by stating that “how a person scores is important”. However, right now, I at least, do not know which ways of scoring translate better than others. I am hoping to get the data organized so that I can start answering this question, but as of now, it is just story telling as far as I am concerned.
The world awaits Kahn's brilliance on draft day.
Based on his track record this should be interesting.
The closer to the draft we get, the more nervous I get
for awhile with all the chatter about 2 for 4&8, iggy, monta etc. I was a happy camper. Now I just get this feeling that we will walk away with D. Williams or Kanter and nothing else.
Givony says
they don’t like him at all, but we heard Oceanary reporting that they do like him. As difficult as it is for me to believe that this organization is engaging in subterfuge, it is possible.
unlikely, but possible. Just like Darko becoming an All-Star.
I haven't written an insightful post in years.
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