FanPost

"The Favors Model"

The worst thing the Wolves could do tonight is get "too cute" and end up without Derrick Williams. I believe I speak for many fans here when I say "Don't get cute Wolves," anything besides Williams should be seen as a loss. Over the past month there have been more bogus trades scenarios in Wolf-Land then I can ever remember, and during this time the media has made the Timberwolves appear to have an extremely difficult decision on their hands. Is it just me, or do other sane individuals out there feel like the Wolves really do not have a tough decision at all? In my opinion, this draft is so simple that it has become utterly complex to judge for most onlookers. Why is it so simple you may ask? Well, in any sport a team that wins 17 games should soley focus on taking the best available players with every pick, and the best player available to the Wolves is all but assuredly going to be Derrick Williams. Why should bad teams take the best player available over the player that fits much better? Because you end up with Michael Jordan instead of Sam Bowie, Carmelo Anthony instead of Darko Milicic, James Harden instead of Hasheem Thabeet. The point is clear right? It is a terrible draft strategy to take the player who fits better over the more talented player, and there seems to be enough compelling evidence at the top of previous drafts to suggest (BPA > Best Fit) more times then not. This is where my "Favors Model" comes into play. Every year, eventually, an all-star will become available through trade, such as Deron Williams from last season. And when that trade comes along, the team that will get said all-star will be the team that has the most assets to acquire him. When teams trade all-stars they look for young players, picks, and cap space in return - which the Wolves most definitely have. But drafting Derrick Williams tonight gives us the 1A 'asset,' similiar to Derrick Favors last season, that will allow us to make a huge deal at the next trade deadline that will land us a player that both fits on the roster and can be an all-star caliber talent. Drafting Derrick Williams will allow the Wolves to employ the "Derrick Favors Model" better then any other team in the league next season, or barring a lockout the season after that. Thus, if Kahn and the front office make a bunch of trades tonight to gain immediate help, in an effort to save their own jobs and avoid 'Clippergeddon', they will be making a huge mistake. Just because it is draft night does not mean we have to make final decisions on the guys we pick and make trades. Such a tactic has failed our organization countless times in the past, so it would be pointless for me to list examples. The Nets took Derrick Favors last year because he was the best player on the board, not necessarily because he was the guy they wanted to build around. Then, as the Wolves should also do with Derrick Williams, the Nets patiently waited until an all-star caliber player became available and eventually turned Favors, and other assets, into one of the best point guards in the NBA. The only way for the Wolves to succeed in tonight's draft is to take the same approach as the New Jersey Nets. Be patient and employ the "The Favors Model". It is so simple David Kahn, you sat and watched the same strategy work last season, so take Derrick Williams and be incredibly patient for the next 6 months. Then pounce on the right player once he becomes available by trading whoever does not fit the long-term vision Kahn has set out (Williams/Beasley/Johnson/Randolph/future picks/cap relief). Trading an asset before truly knowing what that asset is worth is not a good strategy in any business venture and by not drafting Derrick Williams the Wolves would be doing all of us die hard fans a severe injustice. Goodluck to you tonight Mr. Kahn, I have supported you since day one and believe in you as a leader, but sometimes swinging for a double is better then whiffing on a homerun. I hope you keep "The Favors Model" in mind tonight.
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