Central Dogma
by biggity2bit on Jun 24, 2011 11:56 AM CDT
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PrintWes Johnson...Michael Beasley... Derrick Williams... Anthony Randolph...
8' 10"..... 8' 11"..... 9' 0"..... 9' 1"....
7' 1"..... 7' 0.25"..... 7' 1.5"..... 7' 3".....
37"..... 35"..... 34.5"..... 35".....
Four guys with 7' wingspans, with nearly 3' vertical leaps, and only one basketball.
Welcome to your new Minnesota Timberwolves.
[author's note - this is a long post, with some videos. I highly recommend you watch them, as they illustrate what it is, I think, the FO sees in this group and what they hope these guys will play like next year.]
I've been thinking about this team for quite some time now, wondering about it's direction, it's players, and how it all might work...or not work. Assuming Rambis truly is on the way out, these players might just have a chance.
There is going to be an awful lot of conversation over the coming months about whether a team can be successful with 18 PFs and SFs on its roster, and that's all fine for a good laugh now and then, but don't for a second let yourself be fooled into thinking that such a superficial comment in any way describes what this team could be. The following is a polemic attempting to describe what the 'could' could be.
...and trust me, I get it that this team could stay fractured, disjointed, almost good but never putting it together. It's a very possible outcome...
In short, I think we are on the cusp of seeing something completely different and truly unique -- a fully 2011 era NBA team unencumbered by visions of late 90's KG basketball, or 2000's TD Spurs ball, or even Showtime ball. What these guys will become is up to them. What they can become is up to the coach (at least in the short term). How they will do it starts with Ricky Rubio...
Ricky Rubio is a unique player. A tremendous playmaker without scoring, a ball thief and turnover specialist (that last one is not a compliment), a guy who actually does see things on the court before anyone else. "Experts" will debate over the next number of months whether he's good enough to play in the NBA or not, and that's fine. What Ricky is is a very good basketball player. He's very similar to Kevin Love in that regard - another guy who came in with legit questions about his ability to be productive at the NBA level, or Steph Curry, or if you want to jump sports, a guy like Percy Harvin. All of these players simply get the game, even if they don't match up with the 'prototype' description of what a high quality player should look like, or jump like, or shoot like, or whatever. They are all the kind of players that HOF coaches say that they want on their teams because players like that make everything easier for everyone else.
In terms of Ricky playing against NBA caliber players, he's going to be fine.
RUBIO MIX Highlights 2010 Team USA vs. Spain 08-22-2010 (via loconono1)
This video of Rubio's 2010 performance against Team USA illustrates the good and the bad that Ricky will bring to the table. He's going to be fine defensively in the NBA. He's going to spend awhile making passes he probably shouldn't while he adjusts to the length and speed of NBA players. And he's also going to shift and bounce around, setting and resetting defenses until he finds an open seam for a pass to a cutting player.
What is also very clear is that the open space of the NBA is going to help Ricky perform at a high level. He's going to be one of the best transition PGs in the NBA from day 1, and being surrounded by players with 7' wingspans and 3' verticals who play and finish above the rim is only going to reveal the true extent to which a non-scoring PG with ridiculous court vision can impact the game.
One of the primary criticisms/concerns with Rubio is his ability to finish at the rim, or even get to the basket. From what I've seen of him playing against Team USA, Ricky is not going to have a problem finding seams to drive into. The nature of his game is more crafty than athletic - he wiggles and shifts, changes angles of potential attack constantly and quickly. One might argue that his entire offensive game is built around his court vision - his constant testing of defenses to see how they are going to react to this little stutter step, this misdirection...until it's actually not a misdirection at all. He uses all of this to keep the defense moving, to draw help defenders in to open up a shooter or cutter. The more I watch of him the more I realize that quite possibly he will never need to score that much in order to be highly effective because his effectiveness doesn't rely on scoring, or really even the threat of scoring. Ya, he gets some layups and occasional jump shots because teams sag off of him, but it's really kind of bizarre because it almost appears to me that teams get caught in trying to defend him by trying to defend the potential passing lanes. They all know he's going to pass it, and try to take it away, and yet Ricky's court vision is such that he still sees what they don't.
That is Ricky Rubio, the first piece of the puzzle.
...........................
The second piece of the puzzle are the four guys who started off this post.
There are some videos of each of the guys I'd like you to watch (the SBNation FanPost editor has crapped out due to the intense awesomeness of this post. Click the links to watch. Also, it's not lost on me that the videos are made by the same person, but they all nicely illustrate my points so congrats to their creator!):
This isn't about whether these guys are going to be stars, or superstars, or even whether or not they're all going to have a 'position'. They don't need one. What they need is an offensive system that allows them to be what they are - a system that opens up seams for cuts to the basket, a system that generates open looks, a system that loves running and transition basketball, and most importantly, a system that is not iso-heavy but constantly in motion. These guys can all finish, can all shoot, and very importantly can all clean up scraps (missed shots). In case you haven't put it together, Ricky's natural way of playing perfectly matches what these guys can all do.
So what about getting enough to shots to satisfy all these guys? We're not going to have three 20 ppg scorers on this team, but we might have 4 guys average 14 ppg or more next year. Running at a fast pace is key to this - we need as many possessions by whatever means necessary. Steals, rebounds, putbacks. Fortunately many of these guys are terrific at generating possessions (well, maybe not terrific, but the raw tools are there to create lots of incidental possessions). For example, Love's rebounding, or Rubio's steals (or AR's and Ridnour's). Putbacks and outlets on transition will go a long ways towards satisfying the need for touches for all these guys.
Last year the Wolves' pace was 96.5, the most possessions per48 of any team in the league. Typically what I expect to hear about running a fast pace is that it doesn't work - it's too inefficient, that it can be a sign of undisciplined basketball. And to an extent, that's true. What is also true is that, in recent NBA history, running at that pace can be incredibly successful. [Sidenote - this isn't about championships, not for me, but simply getting back into the playoffs. You want to debate the subtleties of assembling and coaching a championship team, go join a Heat site.]
What is most interesting is to look at the 10 teams that won 50+ games in a season since 2000 while running at a pace greater than 95, specifically the players who led those teams in WS. See for yourself:
wins, team - top four WS' PERs, (WS of fourth 'best' player)
62W, 04/05 PHO - 26.6, 21.7, 22.0, 15.1 (7.6)
61W, 06/07 PHO - 23.8, 20.8, 23.1, 18.4 (8.2)
61W, 01/02 SAC - 19.3, 15.2, 24.4, 17.0 (7.3)
59W, 02/03 SAC - 19.6, 15.0, 15.6, 20.9 (6.9)
57W, 07/08 LAL - 24.2, 16.9, 13.8, 22.6 (4.8)
55W, 07/08 PHO - 27.6, 21.1, 20.0, 15.7 (5.9)
54W, 05/06 PHO - 23.6, 23.3, 17.3, 12.9 (6.8)
54W, 09/10 PHO - 22.6, 21.6, 16.6, 15.0 (6.4)
50W, 07/08 DEN - 20.9, 17.2, 21.1, 14.7 (5.0)
50W, 10/11 DEN - 20.4, 17.9, 13.6, 18.6 (5.9)
I find this very interesting. You can win with three very dominant players (Phoenix with Nash, Marion, and Amare), you can win with one dominant player with some great (and not so great) role players (Lakers), and you can win with a bunch of pretty good players who all fit nicely together and know how to play together (Denver, Sacramento, later Suns).
For comparison, the Wolves will be relying on three guys who put up PERs of 24.3, 18.5, and 15.5 last year, as well as a couple of unknowns. It's not the talent that is keeping this team back per se, it's how they play together. Having said that, the talent we just picked up last night is going to help immensely in making all this work.
After I read that we drafted Derrick Williams last night (and kept him), I couldn't help but immediately smile because the image of DW playing with Rubio flashed through my mind. From DX:
Williams' versatility shines through in the rest of his game, as he did an excellent job scoring...[in] pick and roll finishes (1.37 PPP), and cuts (1.26).
Williams appears to do a great job trusting Arizona's offense and waiting for good opportunities to come to him rather than hunting shots—something that his NBA coach will surely appreciate.
Williams may not shoot the most jumpers of this group—only 25% of his shots come in this form--but he makes more of the jumpers he does take (56%, or 1.6 points per shot) than anyone, and not by a small margin.
DW is thick and muscular, built to absorb contact and strong enough to finish anyways. He's got long arms and a proclivity towards dunking. In many ways he's Blake Griffin-lite (slightly shorter, slightly lighter, slightly less bounce, worse handles but a better shot). DW is not going to shoot 57% from three in the pros, but even a serviceable three point shot is going to keep the floor open for him to work.
Derrick Williams 2010 Highlights University of Arizona Basketball (via ArizonaAthletics)
A quick note - I'm intentionally using highlight videos because this post is a polemic for what should be with this team, about why these guys can work together, and thus I am most interested in illustrating the specific best parts of their games that they already bring to the table.
Derrick Williams is a bull - almost like a Kevin Love mixed with Michael Beasley's athleticism in how he bounces around in the scrum and rises above the rim to finish. In our catalogue of offensive players he fills a clear niche.
More to the point, he helps make all of this work. If you watched the highlight videos of Wes, Beasley, and AR linked above, you might have noticed something: these guys aren't really good iso scorers. They're awesome in transition, that's for sure. But there is one other thing I noticed - so many of these plays start from beyond the three point line. I think one area the Wolves really struggled with last year is that they had no one who could reliably bring the point of attack to within the three point line. The result is that more often than not we had a collection of non-iso (yet very talented) scorers attempting to do their thing with the defense always set in front of them.
This is why Rubio is so important. I've already discussed how he's constantly in motion, shimmy-ing and stuttering and shaking to keep the defense moving. (In fact, he looks most ineffective when he's just standing there waiting for something to happen. He's not a Dwayne Wade type player, or Derrick Rose type, who can just stand there and wait for the defense to get set before blowing by some guys to score. Ricky is the exact opposite - he excels in motion, in the scrum). What I haven't mentioned until now is that Rubio's supposed 'weakness' in finishing drives might actually be extremely beneficial to this team.
Why? Because he can reliably bring the point of attack inside the three point arc, thereby freeing up Beasley, DW, Wes, and AR to operate. Give any of those guys just a little breathing room - and a defense already in motion - 2 or 3 steps from the basket and they are far more efficient and effective. Rubio can find them, they can finish by dunk or by swish. And if they miss? All of them are outstanding at cleaning up slop, including the best of them all: Kevin Love.
I'm not sure what to make of Kevin Love. I definitely want him on this team for a long time, as you don't get rid of 22 year olds who produce 10+ WS with a PER of 24+. But after watching the highlights of DW, Wes, Beas, and AR, check out the highlights of Kevin Love.
Kevin Love 2010-11 Highlights (HD) (via jclillehei12)
Talk about playing under the rim! I don't know how he does it, and it doesn't really matter. What is interesting about him is that there seems to be a zone of chaos around him under the basket, defensively or offensively. Too many times you see bigs get boxed out, almost as if they're just going through the motions of trying to rebound or get a putback. With Love he's constantly pushing people, getting separation or changing angles. It's chaos...and it's effective.
If I didn't know any better I'd say that he plays like what I think a center should play like. He's clearly our best (and perhaps only) low post offensive presence despite his incredible three point shooting. What I do want to highlight, however, is his ability to see things as well. The trade for Brad Miller also ties into this, and that is that the dynamic that I've tried to illustrate for why Wes, Beas, AR, and DW are so highly valued for this team is supported by the play of the big men and ancillary shooters.
After Ridnour, the two best passers from last year were Beasley and Love (as determined by AST%). [BTW - After watching those highlights I was actually impressed by how many times Beasley showed up as the guy who made the pass. If that guy can ever mature into his talent, holy bejeebus could he be insanely good.] In fact, the next best passer was Wes. The point I'm trying to make (not very well as this post is too long and I just want to be done with it) is that if we buy into the FO's love for these players and look at who they brought in, and we factor in the highlights of how all these guys can play, then to me a clear dynamic emerges, and one not so dissimilar to what Rambis wanted: ball movement creating easy looks for athletic finishers and terrific outside shooters.
Rubio - outstanding passer
Ridnour - led the team in AST% (28.1) last year, quality backup PG
Brad Miller - had an insane AST% of 21.4 last year (5.1 assists per36)
- even as 'token' starter playing 15 mpg, he's an ideal situational passing big man to help get spacing going Love/Beas/Wes - surprisingly effective passers for their roles in the offense
Wes/Beas/DW/AR - terrific transition finishers, and highly effective against unset defenses
Luke - shot .440 from three last year
Love - shot .417 from three last year
Martell - shot .417 from three last year
Tolliver - shot .409 from three last year
Wayne - shot .397 from three last year
Williams - shot .6 bazillion from three last year
Love - great at spacing
Rubio - great at spacing
Miller - great at spacing
Martell - great at spacing
Tolliver - great at spacing
Wes - great at spacing
You see where this is going? You see why Kahn and Ronzone might just think that this roster only needs tweaking and not massive overhaul? I'm not completely delusional to think that this team is 100% going to be successful. What I am saying is that I believe that the pieces are, in fact, here for an imaginative coach to say, 'You know what? This team is idiosyncratic enough - and at a high level - that it just might work! What other team is going to be able to match up with the eclectic talent of this team?' If these guys play together, just doing what they do, they'll be competitive night in, night out.
Defensively, I will note, this team is going to struggle as they figure out how to play together. Darko is almost assuredly going to be asked to become a defensive stalwart. AR, Beasley, and Wes are all very competent shot blockers (I would expect DW to be as well). Shoot, even Pek is pretty good (had a higher block% than AR last year). For a team that will count as its six best players no one older than 24 next year, the defense will be maddening at times. Wes and Rubio on the perimeter are going to have to be pretty solid, and it certainly wouldn't hurt to hire a defensive assistant to coach these guys up in how to play together. However, with the length and athleticism all over the place on this team, the seeds are there for effective defense.
There is little reason to think, in my mind, that this team can't be a 50 win team in 3 years time if they stay together and they have a coach has lets 'em run and do what they do. We don't need three All-Stars to make it happen, just the sum to be greater than the parts. Rubio is the key to allowing everyone else to be that much more efficient, that much more effective. If DW turns out to be All-Awesome, then great. At the least he fills the need Beasley doesn't - an athletic inside banger/finisher. The pieces are there.
Welcome to your new Minnesota Timberwolves.
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Nice post
Also noticed a lot a Beasley Assists in that Love highlight video. All I remember last year was a lot of offensive fouls, missed shots, and turnovers from Beasley.
Glad that if anything stays from the triangle its the spacing and offensive awareness.
The pieces are potentially there but who can put it all together.
for me to poop on
in fairness
Beasley was very inconsistent. He had a few remarkable (for him) games where he had 6 or 7 assists, and several games with 5 (plus) turnovers.
One problem I had with Beas was, for lack of a better word, laziness. On offense, if he was at the elbow and the PG was bringing the ball up-court and threw a pass to him, he would not go out to meet the ball but would wait on the ball, resulting in the defender getting to the ball sooner.
On defense, it’s become all too evident that Beas is slow to close out as defender on 3-point shooters.
Dingus Kahn, it's over
too slow or part of defensive scheme
Rambis’s Defense emphasized stopping dribble penetration often drawing Beasley or Love to cover for the inept guard defense. Thus, whoever they were guarding were usually left for an open shot OR someone shifts to their guy and failure to make defensive adjustments usually did them in. Rambis would rather have the other team shoot lower percentage 3s than higher percentage shots in the paint. Sometimes it worked. Most of the time it didn’t.
Beasley is not slow but you are right that he lacks effort/IQ. Instead of playing in the Drew League this summer, where defense is non existant, he should’ve hired a defensive/plyometrics coach. Is it true that he never lifts weights? It’s hard to find any video of Beasley playing defense but from what I could find, his balance was way better in college. I definitely hope he is putting in the work this offseason cause he is going to have competition for minutes.
for me to poop on
by avil0017 on Jun 24, 2011 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Excellent Post
Kahn gets bashed, deservedly so on some things, but not everything. In a very short time he has accumulated several very talented NBA players. I believe in this team and they will be exciting to watch. With a 3 point defense, more PG freedom, better offensive system, removing Darko possessions, utilizing talent better, ( ie: minutes for Love at the 5 ), we could have won 34 games last year. Given Rubio and Williams and better coaching we could win 41 this year.
..
You were a daydreamer, a sass-mouth, and, not infrequently, a bit of a gigglepuss. Somehow I doubt twenty years of amphetamines and failure have done anything to improve that.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 24, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
The strange thing is, with so many good 3 point shooters we should be good in the
clutch. Better play calling and Maturity could make a difference. Last year a couple of made three’s in a row at the end of games could have produced how many more wins. It was amazing how seldom this happened.
Fantastic post
I think you’re spot on: this team could continue to spiral downward. There is no denying that. However, the ceiling of this team is astonishingly high. The biggest offensive change (short of Rubio, obviously) should be to all but eliminate Beasley perimiter isos and all Darko isos. Run a cutting/flowing/motion offense that will be easy to get into from the secondary break. Something I’ve noticed in Rubio highlights is he doesn’t seem to be afraid to pull the ball out and slow the break if nothing is there. He seems to know he isn’t a great scorer in traffic, and is willing to wait for teammates if need be.
The thing for Rubio
and the Wolves is how they respond to defenses laying off Rubio, daring him to shoot.
In this respect, he is like Rhondo in that the defenses will pack the paint and dare Ricky to shoot. Rhondo and Ricky are great in transition and 3 on 2s or 2 on 1s, but in half court (which is more than 50% of possessions) both are challenged.
Of course, the Wolves don’t have complementary players at the level Rhondo does.
Dingus Kahn, it's over
In the little I saw of Rubio
in his games in Spain he seemed to move well without the ball. He seemed to like running the baseline and nobody seemed to guard him there. The problem was that JCN and his other teammates didn’t get him the ball much then. I would hope the Wolves would be able to get him the ball more in those circumstances. I do love guys who move well without the ball. Of course we would want Rubio to have the ball in his hands a whole lot.
Ricky
does move well without the ball, and he plays very good team/positional defense. He will need to work a bit on his lateral foot speed, as quicker guards can take him off the dribble. The Spanish teams played very good position/team defense and so whenever Ricky got beat off the dribble, one of the bigs would slide over to check the dribbler.
Ricky is smart as hell and I believe he will be a quick study.
Dingus Kahn, it's over
For as much as having the ball out of his hands implied a regression in his game
I suspect it also really improved his ability to move without the ball. Solid take.
Bringing honor to uncle rico's family since 2011.
I agree that defenses sagging off of Rubio could/will be an issue.
This is why slashing/cutting needs to happen, not so much standing around/iso. Since most of our team (except for Ricky) has 3-point range, opposing teams shouldn’t be able to pack the paint too much. If they stay home on shooters, there is more room for Wes/Beas/DWill to slash.
packing the paint is a hard thing to do
when the whole team basically shoots 40% from 3 and you want to take that away also
The fun part is
They can’t sag off of any of our forwards (or the corpse of Brad Miller, if he ever plays here).
"We must always seek the truth in our opponents' error and the error in our own truth." - RN
Actually Rubio can shoot the standstill catch and shoot 3 at an OK rate.
It is pulling up of the dribble where he is horrible, really horrible. We need a coach smart enough to use him effectively and get him a shooting coach.
One amazing advantage that Williams has over Griffith
is in reach. his arms are longer and his standing reach is 3 inches higher. Also, I mentioned before how efficient Pek became as a scorer in the second half last year. Efficient high volume scorers can produce wins. What a great write up.
I see Williams as a cross between Griffin & 'Melo
Dude can score from anywhere, and he is a beast who is not afraid of contact.
Melo did average double figures in rebounding while a freshman in college...
D-Will, in two years, was unable to muster a single year of double-figure rebounding average. Melo also averaged over 20 points a game at Syracuse, something D-Will fell short of as well. Blake Griffin, who stayed in college two years (like Williams) averaged 22 and 14 in his sophomore year, while D-Will averaged 19 and 8.
So, that means that D-Will gives less scoring and less rebounding then both Melo and Blake Griffin. And he’s not very impressive in blocks, steals, or assists to boot.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Sounds consistent with my understanding...
although he was the most efficient college scorer of the group.
True, but scoring efficiency usually takes a hit in the pros
whereas other categories (rebounds, assists) are more likely to translate to the NBA
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions
If you want to believe in something...
hang your hat on D-Will’s rep as a high-motor, high-character guy. Those guys are more likely to fulfill whatever potential they have as players. D-Will may not be as talented as Beasley, but he could surpass him as a player if Beasley can’t learn to keep his head in the game more consistently.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Per-36 minutes
Williams outscored and (very slightly) out-rebounded Carmelo. Griffin beat them both. Williams was the most efficient scorer (much better than Carmelo) and got to the line at the highest rate (a lot higher than Carmelo, about the same as Griffin). Griffin was more turnover prone, but also had more assists, so Williams had the worst A/TO of the three. Williams was worst on blocks per 36, but basically the same as Carmelo. Steals were a wash with Griffin and a little lower than Carmelo.
I don’t know that these change the overall story, but your per-game comparisons are a little misleading because Williams played the fewest minutes of the three.
I wonder why Derrick only played 30 minutes a game last season.
Most-uber-talented players on anything other than loaded college teams play more minutes then 30, especially when they’re not freshmen.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't know a ton about Sean Miller
But in college, it can very easily be the coach’s system. Tubby, for instance, changes lines like a hockey coach.
by BrettAhlgren on Jun 24, 2011 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I checked and D-Will averaged 2.8 fouls a game
While Griffin averaged 2.5 and Melo 2.2. And he averaged that in slightly fewer minutes, so his per-36 is even higher then those numbers indicate, compared to Blake and Melo. I wonder what you can read into being more foul-prone? Perhaps it’s an indication of defensive and/or athletic inadequacy?
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah the higher foul rate could be a reason for the lower minutes
I don’t know how / why he committed them, though.
Perhaps a lack of elite body control?
Or maybe he was trying to compensate for the defensive deficiencies of his teammates. I don’t have the patience or the desire to do this kind of research, though.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions
This will be an epic match-up
DW has quicks so he can stay in front of Griff. This may be where Love switches to the 5.
Dingus Kahn, it's over
Guess who's back
Back again
Biggity’s back
Tell a friend
Nice dissertation—I’ll nominate you for three Adult Continuing Education credits.
This account is to be used solely for recommending sbjake's Fan Posts.
I second the nomination
His career words/fanpost average has to be the highest of any Hoopus member.
Derrick Williams was going to Bust...but then he was selected by the Timberwolves!
You stir the kool-aid better than anyone else.
(I promise I mean this in a good way)
Welcome back, b2b!
by BrettAhlgren on Jun 24, 2011 1:33 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking the same thing.
Nice post, B2B.
Sounds like 1980s Louisville
high pressure D, athletes, dunking the ball as the focus of the offense….
Hey, what’s Denny Crum up to these days anyway?
You're BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome back man. Great post I can see it working!!!!
I'm Trill, I'm running w/ the WOLVES
by running with Twolves (and scissors) on Jun 24, 2011 1:55 PM CDT reply actions
Just in case you guys didn't know:
One of your draft picks, Tanguy Ngombo, lied about his age, and is 27 years old. Yikes.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
He and Wes can star in a remake of
Grumpy Old Men.
by Madison Dan on Jun 24, 2011 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Already a fanshot on this.
h/t Mac of the MIAC
You were a daydreamer, a sass-mouth, and, not infrequently, a bit of a gigglepuss. Somehow I doubt twenty years of amphetamines and failure have done anything to improve that.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 24, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Very good work
I appreciate it. I suppose it’s just my native pessimism, or the beat down I’ve taken from this franchise over the last few years, but where you see opportunity, I frankly see more of a chance of a mess. Parts that just don’t fit, a severe lack of ball handling beyond Rubio, a bunch of combo forwards, no defense, and an ultimately harmful scrum for minutes.
There has been talent added. But I don’t get the sense that there is any real idea how to build a team; hell Kahn said almost as much last night. It isn’t just positions, either. It’s skills, and it’s the uniform youth. I like young. I really do. But the problem is that young players, justifiably, have more personal agendas. When your entire team is that way, expecting them to have the wherewithal to come together as you envision is more optimism than I can muster.
The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 24, 2011 2:04 PM CDT reply actions
You're probably right
It’s hard to find a logic stream with a coherent strategy for the Wolves.
Mr. Kahn has been pitching defense since the season ended, as in, “we need to work on the defense” So, we have a front line with offensive punch but still unproven defense. One exception is Tolliver, who many think will be the first one shipped out.
Youth coupled with NBA inexperience is a bad combo. But at least the majority of Wolves players will have had a year floundering together, which hasn’t been the case the two years prior.
Dingus Kahn, it's over
Well let's break it down to it's most basic
Our “core” right now seems to be Love/Rubio/Williams
and that seems okay. I agree the fit isn’t there, but if Williams becomes the player most scouts think he can, it shouldn’t really be a problem
For Biyombo...just not at pick 2
I am very okay with Randolph and Beasley being shipped out
It’s hard to see Randolph getting minutes (has he added 40 pounds yet?) and Beasley had a great opportunity last year to prove that he is a long-term solution at SF and he failed.
Reduce turnovers, reduce personal fouls, shoot better, win.
But Beasley got hurt!
And it was his first year playin’ SF!
And Rambis mindf*cked him!
Beasley fans like to make a lot of excuses. But the bottom line is if he doesn’t show real improvement, and I’m not talking PPG, then he needs to go. I hope the news of him working his ass off so far this off-season are true. I want him to be a major piece on this team, but he’s got to get better. Defense, Decision Making, Efficiency, Consistency. If you aren’t at least doing 3 out of 4, you aren’t a major player. Right now he doesn’t do any.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
And Beasley detractors seem all too willing to give up on him all too quickly.
And I don’t think even Beasley fans would say he doesn’t have a lot of room for improvement or that they wouldn’t move him for the right price. And they definitely don’t go as over-the-top as the Beasley detractors.
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Jun 24, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
The man does have elite talent, he’s still young and figuring it out. He just finished his senior year of college had he stayed. Not everyone figures it out quick like Rose. I think Beasley will get better. If he doesn’t then you ship him, as you’re not going to get a farm right now anyways and dont stand to lose much by waiting. Might as well really see what you have. He’s a 1st tier talent who is still young. I still think he’s got some alpha in him, watching him handle the ball and score late in that Clippers game and the Cavs game where he made buckets in the final seconds off isos.
This 20 year Minnesota sports title drought is starting to get absurd, especially when the 2000s was one giant blue balls.
Can't wait forever
Beasley is an RFA after next season. You have to pay him based on potential or let him walk and let someone else worry if he ever makes it or not. I just wonder what the market is going to be for him if he has another year like this past one rather than taking a major step forward in areas of his game that don’t involve long jumpshots.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
Like I've said before
I’ll give Beasley until this year’s trade deadline to show major improvements. This will be his 4th year, and the youth excuse is going to have to end at some point. At the end of the day, potential is just a word if you don’t make good on it.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
Trade Deadline is the obvious time to move him
because either then he has upped his trade value and you can move him for something good, or Williams will have completely taken the reigns from him and you just want to open up minutes for Williams
For Biyombo...just not at pick 2
Or he has played much like this year and isn't a net positive and Williams has proven unable to play the 3.
Couple more options after that too. Just didn’t want to leave it as only good could come from waiting until the deadline. I do agree though that the deadline should be the time frame in which the Wolves have decided what their core really is. This is why I fear a long lock out. If the Wolves don’t get to audition their players with Rubio before having to make long term commitments it could get ugly and uninformed.
600 N First Ave "like a Pirate's cove".
Right but then we're screwed anyway
if both struggle Kahn will be out of a job, and that will likewise be reason to celebrate.
Can’t hurt to wait till the deadline.
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Jun 28, 2011 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Clearly, we need Jonah Hill
to get Beasley to the Greek.
Bringing honor to uncle rico's family since 2011.
Complete random internet speculation:
Anyone think we got Brad Miller just to be like, “Hey, Adelman, we got yo’ boy. Come onnnnnnn.”
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Jun 24, 2011 2:18 PM CDT reply actions
And also, great post.
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Jun 24, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Miller's career is over
He’s out with injury for next season, we’ll buy him out the following season, and no one is going to give him a new contract coming off microfracture surgery at his age.
Derrick Williams was going to Bust...but then he was selected by the Timberwolves!
Does anyone else think we made bad trades by giving up Jonny Flynn
and Donatas Montejunas (?) for what ends up being Brad Miller (a guy who might not play for us and could cost us a lot of money in salary or a buyout—meaning he’s all negative no positive) and a future lottery-protected first rounder? I guess the first rounder could end up having value but we essentially gave up two first rounders (Jonny and #20) for a future 1st rounder that will probably end up around pick #20, some guy from Qatar, cash, and a guy who will get paid at least the amount of cash we received in the trades for doing nothing.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Oops, I guess we also got Malcolm Lee and a future second-rounder
But, unless you’re high on Lee, it’s still not very much.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I haven't double checked this
But I heard last night that only $1 mil of the last year of Miller’s contract is guaranteed, so it’s actually a financial win vs Flynn’s contract.
Flynn had no role on our team. Neither does Miller, most likely. Perhaps as an experience guy.
Basically we traded whoever we would have liked at #20 (and I don’t know who we would have taken had the pick really been based on our interests), for Malcolm Lee (who sounds like a pretty good fit for us), and two future picks (one first, one second). The future first will likely be right in the range of the pick we gave up, likely in a stronger draft. And we got the other assets.
I’m happy with it.
by stuntmonkeys on Jun 24, 2011 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I heard $800k, not 1 million.
Bringing honor to uncle rico's family since 2011.
I would rather have kept Flynn and Montejunas.
Montejunas sled far and could have been a great piece to sit on until his attitude changed.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jun 24, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Montejunas might be the more perimeter-oriented version of Darko
Talented, but willing to sleepwalk and do just enough to stay on the payroll.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
We didn't get the guy from Qatar. He isn't eligible
to be drafted because he is really 27 years old. We lost the pick or we just wasted Dallas’s pick.
Yeah, I heard.
Because it was Dallas’ pick, they are the one’s who lose, right? We give back whatever we gave up (money?) and we’re even. Dallas can’t get the pick back, though. This is the little-known danger of drafting for other teams.
by Are we cursed? on Jun 24, 2011 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
In an effort to be optimistic, I am trying to think of which coach could tie this all together.
Maybe Rick Adelman. Aside from him, I don’t have the feeling the Wolves will encounter anyone up to the challenge – and that’s before we get to the part where they have to do it on the cheap.
Adelman would be nice
But based off the initial candidates (Romar and a Bickerstaff), it doesn’t sound like the Wolves want to pay a coach of Adelman’s stature at the moment. I know they probably recouped Rambis’ buyout in the draft, but you still got to pay a new coach too.
This 20 year Minnesota sports title drought is starting to get absurd, especially when the 2000s was one giant blue balls.
Great Post man
Weirdly, more then anything, this post has made me remember just how much potential Beasley has. God I hope he reaches it, we could be in for something so special.
Im from Canada, eh
Welcome Back Biggity!
Kerry Eggers: "There are those who feel Kahn will be a new-wave type of GM along the lines of baseball’s Theo Epstein, and Daryl Morey of the Houston Rockets. Kahn will likely be more of a hybrid, employing a bit of an old-school tact as well."
good points
Also this idea plays to these players’ obvious strengths. Think how Rambis misused the majority of the roster — Wes almost exclusively a spot-up three point shooter (highlights show how well he can finish), Beasley as an ISO option (great offensive player but not an NBA ISO guy unless you want a mid-range jumper), Darko as a passing big man who initiates the offense (wow, what a dumb idea!)…Rambis kept trying to squeeze players into the roles of his system, instead of developing a system for the strengths of his players.
Allowing these dudes to just play on offense will be a big difference from last year. Although our lack of size will hurt down low on D, any coach who preaches defending the 3 ball (as in all NBA coaches other than Rambis) will make our D better than last year.
I don’t have high hopes, but I have hopes. And no doubt, we’ll be a really fun team to watch. Comparison’s been made before, but White Chocolate Kings, baby (uh, without the horrible comparison of Vlade to Darko and without the animosity between Webber and Kahn).
Good post but
In my opinion this is a temporary roster imbalance. I think two key rules in drafting are (1) draft BPA and (2) balance the roster accordingly.
Kahn has to know we cannot play acceptable D with a Love/Beasley/Williams front line.
I think Beasley gets traded along with other stuff (AT/Ridnour/etc) for a real C or SG. Which need is greater depends on whether AR or Wes take a big step up.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
I think that's likely too
On NBA TV last night, David Aldridge said that the Wolves are positioning themselves with lots of talented players so that when the next ’Melo, Amare or Derrick Williams comes available (though hopefully at C, SG, or to a slightly lesser degree SF), we are poised to make a realistic offer.
Aldridge didn’t mention it, but the new CBA could well create more of these opportunities than the norm.
by stuntmonkeys on Jun 24, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, it's interesting, because when I pull up SGs by ppg (no, I'm not saying that's how you answer who's best),
the first two are untouchable (D-Wade, Kobe), but the next two are wholely gettable and have been discussed ad nauseum, for both their skills and their warts (Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin).
At this point, are those the targets? Or do you look for defense? (Iggy is the only star-level guy that comes to mind)
Or do you somehow try to pry a rising star (much harder, given their better contracts): Harden, Gordon, Matthews…
I definitely think its SG before C, because we are chock full of frontcourt guys (not great Cs, but many are serviceable in certain aspects down low, and I’m actually gung-ho for some smallball). SG, on the other hand, is something of a barren wasteland.
I don’t know, depending on how well Malcolm Lee acquits himself on the defensive end, I might be ready to roll the dice on Ellis or K-Mart (after seeing the CBA pan out). Between Rubio, Lee, Webster, Wes, and a better coach(!), our backcourt defense may very well turn a corner this year.
Ok, rambling over…
by BrettAhlgren on Jun 24, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, I guess I also wanted to address this part: "when the next ’Melo, Amare or Derrick Williams comes available"
Take a look at that scoring list generally.
There just isn’t really that level of player at SG who’s going to be available, through trade or if we had set our sights on this draft (seriously, who were we really missing out on in this crop?)
I think those mentioned above may be the right approach at SG. Or, hell, maybe its JR Smith. Call me crazy…or maybe just call him crazy.
by BrettAhlgren on Jun 24, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll call JR Smith crazy.
Just not to his face.
I actually think that Monta or K-Mart(II), are our best options at 2. I’m aware of their defensive liabilities as well, but I agree that hopefully those warts can be covered with the players we have and better coaching.
I believe we still that go-to scorer somewhere. Monta and K-Mart(II) are that. I don’t think Beasley is going to get there anymore (though I hope he will surprise). Based on Williams’ role as an efficient scorer more than a go-to shot creator, I don’t see him getting it done in that role either. Now, maybe Rubio can do enough through probing and dishing to be the creator himself. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
by stuntmonkeys on Jun 24, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
All it takes is a genius coach
Those aren’t exactly easy to find. Some coaches come in with a “system” and want players that fit the system. Other coaches are decent with a conventional roster and incapable when they don’t have that. You’re looking for a coach that can maximize this particular talent AND be good enough to stick around and take the next step when the roster actually finds a SG and C.
Basketball Is Jazz
and Don Nelson is Dave Brubeck. It’s an absurd dream; he’s 71 and likely retired. But you can’t keep me from dreaming.
...I've been drinking...
I'm sure AR would be thrilled
At this point, 131-150 losses would not be much more enjoyable than our typical 110-91 ones under Rambis.
I just want to see some wins and some sort of upward trend in terms of defense or point differential or something.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Jun 24, 2011 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Led
"All men make mistakes, but married men find out about them sooner." -Twain
by Tangerine dream on Jun 24, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Unless
the 2010/2011 season is still underway.
"Of what use is a philosopher who does not hurt anybody's feelings?" -Diogenes of Sinope
by Cynical Jason on Jun 24, 2011 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions
But we also...
Led the league in total losses.
I would be much more interested to know what percentage of our total losses were by 1-5 points.
by SSOL (thats what she said) on Jun 25, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm confused about the second round draft pick we aquired.
Who’s is it really?
Malcolm Lee and
A 27 year-old small forward from Qatar who lied about his name and age and was ineligible to be drafted. Most likely we lost that pick.
Just read Zagodas report.
Cash considerations was to pay off Rambis.
Kahn denied that
He said the cash was because they didn’t want to add TOO MANY young players.
Well, what’s he really going to say to that? “Yes, we worked frantically to trade down as often as possible in a fundraising effort to get rid of the coach we haven’t even publicly acknowledged we’re firing yet.” I don’t necessarily disagree with the sentiment that the Wolves don’t need a bunch of new young players (turning that quantity into quality is the next step), but somehow I find it hard to believe that that was the whole story.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
While I think Love can/will play center sometimes
I think we still need a big shot blocker in the middle. No, not Kanter or the big Lithuanian or the other big Lithuanian or Brad Miller or anyone currently on our roster. Biyombo would have been nice. Who can we trade for?
is it really necessary?
i mean, dallas won this year without a shot blocker. chandler mostly had good position and just challenged shots by going straight up. challenging shots and gaining possession is far superior to blocking shots into the stands.
with that being said, i think we could be just fine, if our player would be aware of that.
that btw does not mean we should play zone like dallas did.
Chandler is a great rim protector, though. No one on the Wolves really matches that description. Darko comes closest, but he’s the player who is hopefully being squeezed out of the rotation. Love should really focus on positional D this year to help deal with that problem, but he’s not particularly close to being an elite defender, even if I think he is better off guarding 5s than 4s.
Side note: I think it was Thorpe who made some comment during the playoffs about how Love should watch Marc Gasol footage and realize what kind of a defensive player he should be. I am a fan of that idea.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Great post Biggity!
There is always a way to make things work, even if it requires a trade or two. This likely isn’t the year that things start to really come together, but I could live with 30 wins if some of them are against quality opponents who aren’t sleepwalking through the first 3 quarters. Goodto have you back around the joint B2b!
Timberwolves 2011:
Kahnceptual Performance Art
Excellent job...
There are some nice pieces here, and I really like what Williams brings. I think even us CH’ers underestimate just how bad Rambis dragged this team down. This was a 30 win team last year IMO, and Kurt’s ridiculousness turned that into 17.
My hope, and expectation, is that Beasley is the odd man out here. Turn him and another asset into a serviceable 2 guard, play Love at C, decent coach, and factor in the Ricky effect…I think that’s 40 wins right there.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Awesome post
The two things that will determine the Wolves success are defense and leadership. Someone is going to have to step up and become a leader. I’m hoping Williams and Rubio have some leadership skills.
Even if they do
It’s not likely to be recognized this year as “rookies” in the NBA.
Now will you all please raise your right hand ... and place the paper bag over your head.
by Cedarpenguin on Jun 29, 2011 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Great article and a great read!
Welcome back! Look forward for more post from you!
Welcome back, brother
I’ve genuinely missed your contributions to this board, and this post is demonstrative of why. I had a conversation with a friend post-first round last night, and he said much the same as you.
Specifically: This is the team Kahn has been aiming for all along.
I still have my concerns about how these players will be able to defend, but I sure expect them to be exciting.
Bringing honor to uncle rico's family since 2011.
20 recs to date
suggests to me your insight has been long missed, man. Please continue to contribute.
Bringing honor to uncle rico's family since 2011.
some things I noticed watching the videos
We may still have some sweet helpside blocks from these guys. We won’t have 1 rim protector but we will have for 1/4 of a rim protector. We will still have some sweet blocks next season. I think that they still can compliment each other. I like watching DW lurk behind the basket, KLove in his picking and popping (not to mention all of those 2nd chance baskets), with Wes and B easy doing their things from the wing. Anthony Randolf will be awesome with his crazy game as well (especially if he puts on some weight).
I’m going to be optimistic and let the new coach take care of the D, because we are going to be fun to watch on offense.
I'm Trill, I'm running w/ the WOLVES
by running with Twolves (and scissors) on Jun 25, 2011 12:31 PM CDT reply actions
Nice Post!
I was thinking of posting something somewhat like this!
I always thought that the wolves have a pretty good set up with the players that they have. This had not changed. I really think that if they can really amp up the team defense (that I think will help if Martell and Beasely are healthy, which they should be) then this team will really be good.
The way that this roster is set up is shooters, slashers, finishers and passers. This is awesome. I’m really excited to watch this team.
by Michael C. Boosalis II on Jun 25, 2011 3:08 PM CDT reply actions
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