Beasley, Durant the draft and getting better
by mr.sorbet on Jun 27, 2011 8:36 AM CDT
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PrintA coach once said you pass the ball because it can move faster than any player can. You dribble the ball and almost any player can move faster than you. Many people here have noticed in the Johnny Flynn era that we dribbled too much. Was that part of the problem with Beasley too? consider this, you might expect a taller power forward who handles the ball a lot and who scores a lot to commit more turnovers than the shorter (usually quicker person who he is guarding and who gets the ball less) a good example of this is Kevin Durant. Kevin Durant (this is from 82 games) committed 3.5 turnovers while creating only 2.1 but he held his opponent to .483 EFG quite a bit lower than his own.
Now look at Beasley he is shorter, shot a little less than Durant but lost the TO battle 4.1 to 1.5 (this is .6 more per 40 minutes for Beasely and .6 less for his opponent a swing of 1.2 turnovers per 40 minutes) Now is the problem injury or over dribbling or bad dribbling?. I think he is working out with Nixon the former all star point guard to improve his dribbling. Fine, but we have Rubio now so how about moving more without the ball and avoid double teams and more catch and shoot and some lobs (I love those lobs right under the basket don't you?) Oh and tighter D also. This would make Bease more like KD.
If Beasley does this I see Williams already doing this better than last years Beasely and really improving the team but we no longer have Corey Brewer and I see Lazar having a tough time getting playing time.
There is a misconception among sports writers that we were strong at small forward and weak at center last year. It is almost the opposite. Consider, Last year the combined output at center compared to opponents was 3.7 more points .2 more blocks and .2 higher PER but .8 less rebounds and 2.5 pct lower EFG. That is about a draw. An improved Randolph and the 2nd half Pek (he figured out how to get his shot) and we have a small win there.
By contrast at SF we were -5.6 PER -7.3 shooting (efg%) and -2.6 scoring and -.5 in turnovers. Williams will do much better than this (and if Michael figures it out with the point guards so will he) plus Web may be healthy and he was very good in the defensive and turnover areas and against the smaller quicker high scoring SF last year and should get some minutes.
Finally, A comment about Malcolm. He's as good a shooter as Burks but not as prolific. Plus, he has the best lateral movement and can guard even point guards "with ease." So I see that he could help Rubio and Ridnour out with his 6'10 wingspan on PG"s like Rose and Westbrook. OK thats it for now.
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I think you've cited the "misconception" about our center play a few times now.
I’ll re-post some stats I put up yesterday (% of team’s minutes at center, net PER = own PER – opponent PER) :
Darko 42%, -4.6
Pekovic, 21%, -3.4
Love, 18%, +17.4
Koufos, 8%, -5.5
Randolph, 7%, +3.5
The productivity that the team-level numbers show at center is due almost entirely to Kevin Love obliterating his opponent for 18 percent of the team’s minutes at center. Randolph did OK. Darko, Pek, and Koufos were not good.
So when people talk about bad center play, they’re correct in the sense that the players we would consider our centers did not play well. Unless there are more roster moves, our best bet next year is to play Love and Randolph more at center and reduce Darko’s and Pek’s minutes dramatically. (Credit to vjl110 for pointing all of this out a long time ago.)
Would it be possible to recalculate the same stats for Pekovic seperated into two categories: pre-allstar break and post-allstar break. I think most people saw significant improvement in his rebounding, defense and scoring at the end of the season. I am wondering if the stats support that.
I'm sure it's possible,
but as far as I know, it’d take more work than I’m willing to do on it.
by Madison Dan on Jun 27, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Here you go.
Not perfect, but it’s a rough take
Pre All star break he played 549 minutes with a FG% of 49.06% and a FT% of 79.16%
Post All star break he played 338 minute with a FG% of 55.77% and a FT% of 71.43%
Pre-All star break
Per minute he averaged .388 points on .290 FGA and .131 FTA with .115 ORB .126 DRB .240 TRB .202 PF and .089 TOV.
Post All-star break he averaged .432 points on .308 FGA and .124 FTA with .080 ORB .101 DRB .180 TRB .207 PF and .124 TOV
My take away is this He scored more points, but committed fouls at about the same rate, but grabbed fewer rebounds, shot worse from the FT line and turned the ball over more frequently.
Apart from the increased FG% there is nothing I would get excited about.
600 N First Ave "like a Pirate's cove".
Thanks!
That’s pretty troubling. He’s never been a particularly good rebounder, but I could live with that if his scoring is up and his turnovers were down. Turnovers from Darko, Pek, and Flynn really hurt us last year. One down, two to go!
by Madison Dan on Jun 27, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Our centers
I was reading A Wolf Among Wolves and there’s a comment about how Love and Randolph are actually pretty good at center. I’m hopeful that Pekovic can become a dominant low post scorer for us, as Randolph is too skinny and Darko sucks. Maybe we should just sign Mark Gasol.
by KateeSachoff on Jun 27, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
You aren't REALLY Katee Sachoff...
Are you?
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
:)
No, just a fan of Starbuck and the Wolves. Been lurking on CH for sometime now.
All this talk about centers reminded me of vj’s post awhile back. Maybe I’m wrong about Love at center:
Looking at the numbers, Love doesn’t just hold his own at center, at least according to PER he is one of the best centers in the league. His net PER is an astonishing +7.83. To put that in perspective, Andrew Bogut’s net PER last season was +4.8, Brook Lopez’s was 2.6, Al Horford’s +5.7… Looking down the list, the only player with a better net PER at center last season was Dwight Howard with his preposterous +16.4. Can you believe that just over a year ago Rambis was starting Ryan “fucking” Hollins at center instead of Kevin Love?
Not only do Love’s numbers show him to be a quality center, they show that he may be an even better 5 than he is a 4. When playing center Love manages to get more rebounds and score more points than he does at power forward. In fact, last season over the course of 708.5 minutes at center, Love averaged above a 30-20 per 48 minutes. These are unheard of numbers. At the same time he maintains and even improves on his defensive ability as a power forward.
The real hidden gem in Love’s “defensive” numbers is the number of personal fouls he forces on his opponents. Love’s opponents average 7.35 fouls per 48 minutes when he plays center. To put that into perspective, he makes the average center nearly as foul prone as Hasheem Thabeet. Even if you are still concerned about bigger all-star centers taking advantage of Love’s size (in spite of the fact that they don’t based on his opponents’ scoring rates), you should be reassured by the fact that they can only dominate him as long as they stay on the court. Nobody can compete with Dwight Howard, but if there is a way to beat him it is making him sit on the bench. Love has that ability like few others do.
It shouldn’t be that surprising that Love performs better on both ends of the court at center. Offensively, playing center keeps Love near the basket where he can focus on his two greatest assets, collecting rebounds and free-throws. In spite of constant concerns that Love can’t defend bigger centers down low, synergy sports and most fans’ casual observations agree that Love is much better defending big guys in the post than he is chasing stretch 4s all over the court. The same skills that help him fight for position on rebounds help him hold his position as a post defender. Nobody should be surprised by these numbers. We need to get over our collective infatuation with prototypical body-types and look harder at relevant skill-sets and position specific production. Kevin Love is a power-forward, but he is also a center. Judging by the numbers, he may even be a center first, and a power-forward second.
While I hate to jerk around our best player, moving Love to center next season makes a ton of sense. In part because that is where he performs the best, but even more importantly because of what it allows us to do with the rest of the roster.
by KateeSachoff on Jun 27, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Oops
How do you use the quote thing? All of that is supposed to be in the blue box.
by KateeSachoff on Jun 27, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Well then what the hell is she supposed to pick as her handle?
I’m telling you, Ricky’s going to bring in everyone as a fan.
Rec'd
For the awesome handle and wonderful take.
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
jerking around our best player
FWIW, on the most recent interview with Jonah posted after the practice with Rubio, Love seemed pretty fine with shifting over to center from time to time. He seems to be really buying into the idea of Beasley, D-Will and Wes being “versatile” enough to shift from 4 to 3 and 3 to 2, and may see himself through that frame as well.
I agree, and I'm not trying to say we don't need a center here because we do.
However, for now things are what they are and I hope my post is partly about doing what we can with what we have. Remember we have also discussed how using Milicic less as a scorer and more as a defender would benefit the club. Vjl110 like Myself were big promoters of Valanciunas. IMO He was the best all around prospect. I am hearing that there could be a group of really good and tall American centers for 2013 but that’s a long wait. Thanks for reading and commenting on this, Honestly, I feel no one reads the technical stuff I write so a comment is appreciated.
It'd be great if we could get Darko to play the limited role of shot blocker
and defender, but I’m not sure that’s possible. Even picking up a mediocre center would be a nice upgrade. Or (as I wrote below), we can hope Pekovic continues to improve. I’ve pretty much given up on Darko.
by Madison Dan on Jun 27, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
BTW
As I recall, you make some good points, so I’m sorry if you feel ignored around here. One thing I’ve noticed is that you may not have the hang of using “Reply” versus just adding a comment at the bottom. Doing the latter in response to a post can make it a little hard to track the discussion.
It’s not a big deal, but I thought maybe it has been contributing to not getting as many responses as you’ve expected.
by Madison Dan on Jun 27, 2011 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
a second point, Madison Dan
is that I think if you look at Pek for the second half vrs the first half of the season you find a huge improvement in scoring efficiency. I still believe he is below average and not the answer at center but I would like to see him play and see if he can learn to eliminate some of those fouls he gets called for. This is his “major problem”
I can't find the Pekovic splits on 82games
but in general, I think he could come around if he cuts down turnovers and fouls. There’s not a lot in his history (from Europe) to suggest that it’s likely, though. I like Pek, so I hope he improves a lot this year.
by Madison Dan on Jun 27, 2011 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
I would be more at ease with Love at center if someone could take the time to find out how he did against
The taller longer centers. It seems like there was so much talk about him getting “killed” on defense that it became worrisome. This is why the thought of having the taller shot blocking Randolph as a PF along side is appealing.
Love and Randolph
That is also a good point, because together they are taller than Love Toliver and together the new heavier Randolph and Love as a combo) look like part of the solution for awhile at least.
#gowolves
1.
Michael Beasley a more gifted offensive player than Derrick Williams (scorer/passer). But psychological issues have kept him from being star – Skip Baylesslink
2.
"I wouldn’t pigeon hole him into a four or a three," Pelinka (agent) said. "He can do both…I think the league is becoming more of a hybrid league."
link
J.UST E.NJOY T.HIS S.HIT
This is Forty08.
Williams at the 3
would be a disaster. Like how Utah tried playing Millsap at the 3 and Sacramento tried playing Carl Landry at the 3.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jun 27, 2011 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Also a disaster--
—referencing anything that Skip Bayless says, other than to mock him. I once heard him declare Gerald Green would be his draft class’s best player, and once heard him argue with Stephen A. Smith over how tall Ben Gordon was. That was the worst moment I have ever watched on a sports talk program, and one of the main reasons I simply ignore all of the talking heads crap on ESPN. Skip Bayless is the Emperor of Idiots.
by Madsen's 3-Point Barrage on Jun 27, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Did Skip Bayless say what I said?
I can’t even remember who Skip Bayless is.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jun 27, 2011 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Nope
big_p.a.w.z quoted him above you, Madsen was riffing off you, but kinda replying to him…
by BrettAhlgren on Jun 28, 2011 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Precisely
Sorry for the confusion, casey.
by Madsen's 3-Point Barrage on Jun 28, 2011 3:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Greald Green, huh?
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jun 28, 2011 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Like I said...
….Skip Bayless is the Emperor of Idiots.
by Madsen's 3-Point Barrage on Jun 28, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldnt mind Don Nelson
He would play small ball PG Rubio SG Wes SF Beas PF Will C Love and he loves Anthony Randolph and Anthony Tolliver from their days in Golden State.
Wolves fan in Ohio
Is it also possible that Love looks really good at Center
and others look bad because the “others” spent most of their time against above average centers and Love got the perhaps easier centers. For Pek I used 41 games not the All Star break. Also I believe he had More starts and more time against quality centers due to Darko’s absence in the 2nd half. I do agree, his foul problems are just that, a problem. One of the reasons I think Biyombo would have done so poorly for us is that his fellow centers would have been Pek and Darko both in need of Mentoring themselves. Love would of helped and Now I think Miller would have. Here I think would be the worst place for him with a fan base looking for a Savior and the uncertainty for coaching. Biyombo seems like a good kind man and I was hoping he would land with a team that would let him ease into the NBA. Fortunately, he at least has a long contract. Williams and Rubio will have a tough enough time but at least they have family and friends and more experience.
The Love padding his numbers against weaker or smaller centers looses some steam....
when you look at his rookie year. Love played slightly more team at the C, and given our roster that year didn’t have a legit center, it is unlikely he was specifically playing when the other team wasn’t using a “true center”. Love was better as a center that year than he was as a PF (same as last year).
In the summer of 2010 I said based on statistics that Love was an all star and got jumped
on for saying that. So I can tell you I am not criticizing Love. Nor am I trying to debate with anyone (the draft is over) so Hopefully we can see this as analyzing together and believe me wnen I say I am proud to have you especially as a partner in this VJ110 and Madison as well. The point of this is We did pretty much hold our own at the PF and C positions last year with the personal we had. I honestly don’t know between Klove and Randolph who should play what position or if it matters. But figures jump out at me such as EFG percentage by posn and I see opponent guards and small forwards hammered us there. We had a high 3Pt % and so did our opponents but they took more 3 point shots than we did. Isn’t this coaching? We have lost two short guards and gained 2 more taller ones I think we could do much better with coaching changes. I think Coaches misused Beasley as much as Darko last year? What are your thoughts. Finally, I hope you publish more on how to improve this team as I do not have internet access out her on a melon farm and do not type well to begin with..
Better there
than in an outhouse full of flies.
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