Wayne in the Forecast?
by Madison Dan on Jan 22, 2012 9:30 AM CST
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PrintAs we've all noticed, Wayne Ellington has been playing very well lately. The question we all want answered is: can he keep it going?
Is Wayne's field goal percentage way up compared to last year? Yes, but the only big change is from 16 to 23 feet, which is up from 40 percent to 55 percent. Shooting guards have averaged 36.5 percent this year from 16 to 23 feet, so this rate is probably not sustainable.
Is Wayne doing any thing else a lot better? Not really. He's actually getting to the line at a lower rate than last year; his assist to turnover ratio is down; and his rebounding is down. On the plus side, he's getting more steals and his defensive rating is way down.
So it looks like this is mostly a hot shooting streak for Wayne. Have we seen this before? Sadly, yes. The chart below shows the 5-game moving average of true shooting percentage for each of his three seasons. As you can see in the shortest line for this year, what we've seen from Wayne lately is about as good as it gets for him. You can also see that peaks and valleys have happened for him before, and this looks an awful lot like a peak before an inevitable decline.
Let's hope not.
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Long twos get a bad rap.
Ellington has been taking open shots off of screens and curls and hitting them, as a good NBA shooter should. Long jumpers off the dribble are bad shots. Open looks in the offense are not.
You also can’t just give the defense the knowledge that you won’t shoot from between 5-23 feet from the basket.
They might be increasingly open for a reason
Of the top 10 rated drtgs in the league, 6 of them are also in the top 10 of allowed shots from 16-23. You want people to shoot from there if they are going to shoot. Open shots are going to happen from everywhere at some point. Better they happen from no-man’s land than anywhere else.
It’s also a matter of basic math. The league average from 16-23 is 37.6%. From 10-15 it is 37.7%. From 3-9 it is 37.3%. At the rim it is 62.8% and from beyond the arc the eFG is 51.1%.
Obviously, you don’t want to give up too many open shots, but if you do, just make sure they aren’t at the rim or from beyond the arc.
I guess long twos get a bad rap in the sense that they’re really not that much different from any shot between 3-15 feet, but when you look at the number of attempts from 16-23 (last year the league average was 20.3/game; this year it is the same) it seems to be the place where you can corral the most number of bad shots.
You're lumping all long twos together.
A LeBron or Anthony fade away with a guy in their face is not the same as a good shooter catching and shooting from an open spot on the court.
by Ray Williams? on Jan 22, 2012 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
It doesn't matter
The 37.3% average figure incorporates league-wide data that includes many smart shooters who take good shots within the flow of the offense. That doesn’t change the fact that long 2s still have a particularly low success rate. Wayne himself has already demonstrated in the past that he is prone to shooting at the typical rate from 16-23 feet.
Maybe Wayne’s shot selection from 16-23 feet is better, but it’s not better to the tune of a 55% (nearly 20% points above average). Ray Allen circa 2007-2010 shot in the mid-40s from 16-23 feet. And Wayne is no Ray Allen.
by WolvesFan03 on Jan 22, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
I think you are making a good point.
There are absolutely good shots from mid-range. However, even the best shooters aren’t awesome at it. The best 16-23 shooters last season (Dirk and Horford) were just over 50%. Those are good shots, but just barely above what you expect from an average half-court situation.
Ridnour, should be taking those shots (he dominated the league 10-15 last season). Wayne probably should too. However, Wayne’s percentage is almost certainly going to drop, and when it does, so will his contribution.
You don’t want to give up open shots. If you can get them, great. I’m just saying that as a whole, there is a fairly solid reason why long twos are, by in large, kind of crappy. Of course some shots within that grouping are better than others but you don’t see a lot of teams or players looking to create a lot of good looks in that area. From fg% to the probability of getting fouled, it isnt the best place to generate points from.
This is true
but it is nice to have someone who can fake the three and step into a long 2. A lot of our three point shooters (ie. Tolliver, Ridnour, Williams, Wes, and even Love) have shown that they will take the three most of the time when defenders are closing out instead of faking and stepping into a long open 2.
Having Ellington in makes the D play honest instead of having guys race to the 3 point line to chase our shooters off the line. It is nice to have a player who wont hesitate to score and successfully score from any place on the court.
this +
It’s bizarre to blame the shot. Blame the shooter for not knowing/using his capabilities, blame the offense for not creating good looks at the optimal places.
I nobody ever shot from 5-23, no defenders would be there, instead clogging the lane and 3 point line.
by WinTheLottery on Jan 22, 2012 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think anybody is saying that players should never shoot from 5-23
The issue, rather, is the sustainability of providing efficient scoring while relying heavily on shots from 5-23 ft.
Wayne might be able to get good shots and shoot a little better than average from 5-23 feet, and that would be a legitimately good thing. He still wouldn’t be a particularly efficient scorer overall, though, because he still takes too small a proportion of his shots from high-efficiency locations (particularly at the rim). This is compounded by the fact that he doesn’t draw fouls because he relies too heavily on long-range jump shots.
So, in other words, the dislike for jump shots from 5-23 feet is highly contextual. I don’t watch games and complain whenever a shot goes up from 5-23 feet. I evaluate in-game shots based on the quality of the look, the context (was somebody else open?), etc. But when evaluating larger trends, I care that Wayne takes such a high proportion of his shots from locations that are proven to be (relatively) low efficiency shots.
This is actually one of the big problems with Beasley, who last year shot above average from every spot on the floor except 10-15 feet, where he was slightly below average. The reason Beasley isn’t efficient is because of the distribution of shots he takes—not poor efficiency at any given location.
What beasley and ellington is doing is completely different
Ellington isnt walk the ball along the sidelines and stepping into a long 2, if beasley came off a screen to shoot an open long 2 and could knock that shot down consistently, I wouldn’t be against beasley shooting the long 2. And while Ellington does shoot a lot of jump shots, he drives when opportunity gives him the chance. Against the Jazz, he made some nice floaters in the lane, and had some good dunks this season when he was given the lane.
Big difference between Beasley and Ellington is that Ellington thinks while he’s on the court and takes what the defense gives him. Beasley does not test the defense and once he decides whether he will going to drive, he already has decided whether he is going to attack the rim and shoot or pass it instead of looking and thinking about what the defense is giving him
This is an funny thread
Discussions between stats, advanced stat, eye test, etc. I usually like the advanced stat angle but find it interesting none of the stat guys have been able to agree with or even consider the very correct argument that there is a relative value differential between a contested 15-23 footer and a non-contested long-range two in rhythm of the offense, but rather trying to come back to defending the new traditional argument without breaking it down further into its component parts. I don’t have the data to support it but would be willing to bet there is a big difference in fg% on contested vs non-contested 15-23 footers (ie, shot selection in terms of taking open shots/not forcing shots is a significant determinant of success on those shots). I’m not saying Wayne will keep it up or not, but will someone with a stat bent please admit that a solid open mid-range jump shooter is different than an inefficient chucker in basketball and advanced money ball terms. The reticence to accept that in this thread is amazing…
by PoohRichardson on Jan 23, 2012 2:12 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Did you read vjl110's comment above
and my agreement with it? I don’t think there was any reticence.
by Madison Dan on Jan 23, 2012 8:27 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Maybe I was a little harsh
I read most of the responses as “Yeah, but’s…”
My wife calls me out on it all the time and it drives her nuts — I tacitly agree, if at all, and then counter with why I wasn’t wrong or am more correct than her.
I thought Ray’s and Andrew’s observations were right on the mark, combining stats and the eye test, and everyone else wasn’t necessarily agreeing with them, but saying “yeah but I’m not wrong.” That’s why it took them several posts to restate the same observation.
by PoohRichardson on Jan 23, 2012 3:10 PM CST up reply actions
Yes I did
Yeah, but I’m not wrong and am more right, just look at the unanalyzed data.
by PoohRichardson on Jan 24, 2012 1:39 AM CST up reply actions
I can't tell whether this is a joke.
I’m not looking at the unanalyzed data because it doesn’t exist (that I know of).
I don’t think you’re anti-stats and the “hated” below is coming out of nowhere as far as I can tell. i just think you misread this thread.
Plus, I’m not feeling particularly wrong about Wayne this morning. ;-)
We don't, but...
we do have stats for % of assisted makes from that range. Logic would seem to indicate that assisted jumpers are typically going to be more of an open shot than a non-assisted jumper.
I’m sure someone smarter than me could find a statistical coloration in FG% for players with a high assisted %.
this is going to be fun
I normally agree with you guys but will definitely need to bring out my 15-23 ft C-game to hang with the 5 of you — I am now the hated anti-stat guy…
by PoohRichardson on Jan 24, 2012 1:33 AM CST up reply actions
I mean I see where I make a qualification...
….in the sense that it kind of goes without saying that there are good shots within the grouping of long twos and if we are talking about them in a way that wasn’t intentionally lumping them together in the first place…well, nevermind, I thought it was kind of assumed that the lumping was there for a reason and that it was kind of pointless to point out that they were being lumped together when that was kind of the point.
I do think all of this brought about the reminder that they’re really not a whole lot worse than anything form 5-23 and that we should probably only really complain when someone steps out of a 3 ball or dribbles into a shot within a foot of the line.
Sure, it’s not the most efficient range to score from, but one could draw comparisons to the run up the middle on first down. There’s a reason NFL teams don’t just pass on every play, even though you’re likely to get more yards on a pass. Making the defense guard the entire floor increases the chances of getting the shots you want: open threes and dunks/layups.
You’ve got to spend money to make money, and you have to take some less efficient shots to get more efficient shots.
by Ray Williams? on Jan 22, 2012 11:27 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think we really disagree here
I’m just arguing that, as a general concept, long twos are no bueno. Of course some players are better than others at shooting them and there are good open shots from that range. However, as a whole, and with the style of play the league has gone to (i.e. a lot of this is the result of increased 3s and pick and rolls), if you had to pick between long twos of any sort and 3s, you’d want the guy to step back for the shot.
I don’t think too many players are engaging the slow thinking part of their brain to make sure they avoid long 2s. I do think that coaches have placed a higher importance on the type of play that encourages more kick outs for 3 off the dribble and/or more drives to the rim.
This is a pretty good condensation of this whole business.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Jan 23, 2012 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
I assume his defense is 'better'
because of Adelman. Wes and Wayne have the same 104 defensive rating this year. But Wayne, even if this is a hot streak, has better lifetime shooting stats (eFG and TS) than Wes does. Even if wayne is a below average player, he should still be getting more burn than Wes.
I don't really like defensive rating as a measure of individual performance
(particularly across teams), but I wasn’t going to minimize it here. The whole team is playing better defense, and I don’t know of any reasons that Wayne isn’t a part of that.
by Madison Dan on Jan 22, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
This makes sense.
Few players consistently hit 55% of anything (except dunks), so the likelihood of Wayne sustayning (see what I did there?) his shooting is pretty low. Maybe this year his peaks will be longer and his valleys less extreme, but he’ll have valleys.
"Of what use is a philosopher who does not hurt anybody's feelings?" -Diogenes of Sinope
"sustayning"
This is without a doubt the most unadulteratedly optimistic word you’ve ever purposely misspelled.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
Yes!
“Unadulteratedly optimistic” was my goal all along!
"Of what use is a philosopher who does not hurt anybody's feelings?" -Diogenes of Sinope
by Cynical Jason on Jan 22, 2012 3:33 PM CST up reply actions
Off the top if my head
it seems that a difference has been the specific moments in the game that Wayne has been effective. In the past I recall him mostly hitting shots early in the game or during lopsided losses (plenty of opportunities for that unfortunately). This past stretch of usefulness feels like it has come in meaningful moments and as part of an overall team concept. This may all be a product of opportunity but somehow it feels noteworthy.
Also noteworthy is the possibility that this is based on selective and hopeful memory on my part.
It was funny to me
that I didn’t see exactly what I expected to see. I figured his shooting percentages were way up, but I also thought he’d been getting good shots a lot closer to the rim. Turns out he’s taking even less shots there (but 4 for 4 at the rim!). That thunder dunk really stuck in my head, I guess. It’s a good example of why stats can sometimes work better than memory/eye tests.
by Madison Dan on Jan 22, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
Ellington
has been sensational for us, and I dont expect to see a decrease in productivity. While I do believe his torrid shooting will dip a little bit, I think this guy will keep it going. He is one of the best shooters on our team, and is one of the guys who understands what shots are right to take, and when he should pass them up. I honestly dont mind his long 2’s because he comes free off of a screen to take them, and his quick and strong release shows confidence. Ellington seems to be one of those guys who doesn’t need a lot of space to make his shot, and isn’t bothered when he has missed his last shot.
Ellington has been hugely underrated in his defense. He moves his feet very well and almost mirrors the defender with the basket at his back. He contests very well on jump shots without fouling, and always seems to be thinking on the court. Every move he makes on the court is with a purpose, and I think he has the potential to be one of our best players.
I'm less concerned about Ellington than I am
some of our other players: Darko, Wes, AR, Tolliver.
I’m really sad to see Tolliver regress. I hope he gets it back. Forgetting about your troubles on offense by playing your ass off on defense helps sometimes, but I don’t see the last 3 mentioned players doing that very much. I think it’s last chance time for WJ. He might have to be sent down to NBA DL to get some PT and to work on some things. I was hoping that the signing of Ricky would help him get some easy buckets, restoring his confidence, but this might be a bigger problem than confidence. He probably doesn’t have the ‘right stuff’. I’m willing to reserve final judgment, but not in a game situation anymore. He learned a little bit about creating his own shot last year, but he’s still uncomfortable doing it, and nearly travels every time he initiates his move. Bust, or bust a move? and he definitely needs time in the gym just shooting and driving. I can’t believe he got this far with all those rim shots. I wonder if videos show that he either lost ball rotation, or never had it. He’s throwing Tim Wakefield knuckleballs up there.
I agree
but I believe Darko has exceeded all expectations so far, and I hope he can work on his consistency. Tolliver has fallen off the last week, and he needs to work on faking on his open threes and taking a mid range jumper or driving to the rim.
Wes has improved in the last few games, and I am optimistic that he is gradually getting better. He seems more assertive, and showed no hesitation in the game against the Jazz, and I would have to say this was his best game of the season . He went up strong with his shot, and showed that he was thinking on the court, unlike a lot of the games this season.
Re: Darko. Here's a guy with a lot of tools, a messed up head, and poor conditioning.
You have to love the guy, but upstairs and downstairs he’s two different people. I do love the way he smothered Blake Griffin and pissed him off several times. He made Griffin force shots because Griffin wanted to prove something against him. Blake got his points, but Darko got into his head and messed his game up a bit. Oh, BTW, Shaq said that if Love outplayed Griffin that he would wear his skivvies on the show this week. If he doesn’t do it, we should inundate the half-time show with tweets and emails.
I agree with
sending Wes to the NBADL when we get enough players healthy. He needs something and who knows, this might be it.
I also agree with comments on Tolliver. He was supposed to be our resident elder with consistent, if not great play, and no mistakes. He is making many mistakes, and missing big shots.
I was never as down on Ellington as many here have been, and I remember seeing his present play levels in the past, but for some reason, his opportunities have been minimized. Let’s hope he can stay at this level and get regular minutes.
I'm not good with the stats like you guys but just wondering....
Isn’t the two guard supposed to take the long range shots more than going to the rim? Especially if the defense is clogging up the lane trying to stop Love/Pek/Darko from getting the high percentage shot. I’m wondering if Wayne’s not getting those shots because they’re not there or if he’s passing up drives. In these last few games I haven’t noticed (maybe not watching hard enough) too any glaring examples of him taking a long 2 or a 3 when he’s been wide open for a drive.
However, I’ve seen Wes drive into a clogged lane a few times and it doesn’t seem like that’d be any more high percentage if there’s a bunch of trees in there ready to block the shot (besides just because it’s Wes) …..now if it’s a wide open lane then it’s a different story.
Ideally, there's a mix.
On average, SGs are taking 21 percent of their shots at the rim (this year, looking at players >=10 mpg). Wayne is taking 5.1 percent of his shots at the rim. Last year, he was at 15.7 percent, but his FG% at the rim was really bad (48.4 percent versus 62.2 percent for all SGs this year).
Wayne could have a role as a bench outside shooter. It’s always seemed to me that he ought to be able to do that, but over the course of whole seasons, his stats just haven’t held up to justify him as a regular rotation player.
I like what I’ve been seeing from him lately, though, so I’m hoping that he can keep being a contributor, which I think is possible even if his 16-23 foot FG% almost has to fall off some.
That puts a little more perspective on it
That = stats from the other SGs.
Hopefully he will keep shooting at a good percentage because I like what I’ve been seeing from him lately too. He’ll be a decent 2nd option if he can keep it up. I’ve said this before but I find it easy to root for him.
Shooting guard
Another guy in the board wrote that maybe it has to do with the change in offense from Rambis to Adelman. It seems like he’s taking smart shots, many of them are just making open shots after a pick. So far he seems to be taking good shots. Was this the case in previous years? From what I remember nobody took good shots, I’m exaggerating but I think shot selection and passing is better this year and this being said Wayne should do better too.
I predict he will have a good year, he won’t be excellent, but he he will meet my expectations for what a Shooting guard of the bench should do.
Smart, good shots
I think it’s an illusion. They won’t seem so smart or good when they’re not going in. That’s jmo, though.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
by twinstalker on Jan 22, 2012 2:53 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
It's
much better than Beasley lazily dribble two steps and take a long 2 though. And who is to say Ellington is a poor shooter? He looks great so far and I don’t know any celtics or pistons fan who argue against Allen or Rip back in the day coming off the screen to make long open jumpers. Wayne also drives into the lane for floaters like against the Jazz and finishes hard when he sees an opening. Ellington looks very confident shooting, and it shows in the results.
But
I do agree. If his shooting percentage plummets, he wouldn’t look as good as he does now. However, I think Wayne would be the type of playing to take it to the rim to get himself to the free throw line and keep shooting his shots with confidence if he starts to struggle.
Except
in North Carolina during the year when he won the MVP in the final championship game. We can’t really rely on his nba track record due to the fact that Minnesota Timberwolves have been so bad since he has been here with terrible coaching. Nobody looked very good when the team was terrible. We also can’t dismiss the possibility that he worked very hard in the offseason to improve his play and confidence.
So far this year, he has shown to be a great shooter and a good decision maker.
I saw that game
and didn’t enjoy it one bit at the time.
There’s nothing in that video that helps make a case that he’s super good at making things happen at the rim when his outside shot isn’t falling. His one drive in a half-court offense is a little awkward. He has a rebound put back, and a breakaway layup. Everything else is a jump shot.
I understand the desire to give everyone a blank slate post Rambis. We’ve certainly seen cases like Sessions where we can see that Rambis brought them down a notch or two. But I’m a little skeptical when people take that argument too far. I just don’t think Wayne will ever be more than a jump shooter, and I’m hoping he can be consistent enough at that to be deserving of consistent minutes.
It shows
that he is a good confident jump shooter. From what we have seen this season, the evidence shows that he is a great scorer. Well you can have your opinion, and I can have mine. We will see by the end of the season if Ellington is legit or not.
Like I said,
I hope Wayne stays at a level where he’s a useful player, but your argument, to me, falls in the “this time it’s different” category, ignoring the fact that we’ve seen these peaks in performance several times before, even under Rambis.
No, you can't have your opinion. That's ridiculous ;)
(Why do people qualify something like that? Who can take your opinion away from you?)
I can
I have a special device for doing just that. You make a small incision into the skull of the opinionated person, slide the deopinionater in, and stir. Guaranteed to remove most opinions most of the time.
Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!
by TMiss on Jan 22, 2012 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I like the ones where I express my opinion
And people ask for my qualifications, as if I thought I was professing the absolute truth and there could be no other way. This happens on another site, not this one. So that’s why I sometime throw in “jmo” or other such prattle.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
no offense
But would you mind corroborating this statement?
Wolves 2011-12: Crossing the Rubikahn....alea iacta est...... " et tu Ricky?"
by Tangerine dream on Jan 23, 2012 8:34 AM CST up reply actions
I disagree with this question...
mind explaining?
, said Mplax.
You hit the nail right on the head with that one.
But where is the confusion coming from?
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Jan 24, 2012 6:46 PM CST up reply actions
As a wise man once said.. and repeated... over and over... multiple times...
opinions are like assholes. Some are louder than others.
, said Mplax.
the version I'm familiar with is
“We all have one, and they all stink”.
Wolves 2011-12: Crossing the Rubikahn....alea iacta est...... " et tu Ricky?"
by Tangerine dream on Jan 24, 2012 8:52 AM CST up reply actions
In going through these "aging" threads
I actually made the comment just above, thinking I was reacting to a completely different train of thoughts. Hopefully anyone who returns here will disregard it as just a little inadvertent fart.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Jan 24, 2012 6:52 PM CST up reply actions
Ellington
like Wes, Darko, Tolliver, etc., deserves a chance to work with a real coach for a few months.
I’ve been hanging around this site since its inception, and according to the CH experts who’ve been schooling me on the finer points of professional basketball, Wittman, McHale and Rambis were all REALLY SHITTY COACHES.
Don’t our surviving Wolves veterans deserve a chance to work with a winner like Rick Adelman before they’re condemned as journeymen players, trade bait or worse? Seriously, every time I read about which players HAVE to be traded or why player X will ALWAYS suck, I feel like I’ve wandered into the Court of the Red Queen where every other word is OFF WITH THEIR HEAD!
I’m guilty of being too patient too often, but in a shortened season when Adelman had very little time to work with the players, I think patience is called for. If a player has played well at one point or another, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that’s an attainable day-to-day level for them. It’s the players who never have a good game that worry me.
Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!
I think this is the source of a lot of disagreement around here.
As a general rule, I don’t think the move from Rambis to Adelman is going to turn these guys into completely different players. Rambis didn’t keep Ridnour’s jumpers from falling; Beasley under Rambis looked kind of like Beasley at Miami (statistically); we could still identify Love as a great player under Rambis. Maybe we’ll see some guys go from not deserving of a roster spot to being a rotation player, but that’s about as much as I can hope for.
If you or someone else thinks that the coaching change is going to fundamentally change Wes’ or Ellington’s performance, there’s really not much to debate, because I can’t say you’re wrong, but it’s not what I expect to happen.
That is true
but the offseason didnt only bring us a complete overhaul of coaches (Adelman brought his staff). The addition of Rubio, Barea, and Derrick Williams give our team an extra dimension we never had before. We have players who can make their own plays as well as making plays for others. Our shooters have never been more open, and the pick and roll so far has been rubio and the pick’s bread and butter (which was not the case last year obviously). We clearly are a different team from years before. Not only has the coaching changed, but the style and the pace the team plays at is completely different not to mention the mentality of our team this year especially late game.
But there is a huge difference between Adelman and our previous coaches
How exactly is Adelman trying to make our marginal players play against their own grain? Adelman gives players a chance to succeed. Rambis and Wittman especially tried to remake players in the image they saw for them. That did not work and it wasn’t fair to the players. Hell, it wasn’t fair to Jonny Flynn, a guy who has no business going anywhere near a triangle.
Can you imagine Rambis with Barea? How effective would Barea be if he had to pass first?
Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!
Let me ask you a question in the other direction:
how much do you think we learned about Flynn and Wes during the Rambis years?
Do you have exactly the same opinion of them now (actually before this season, before they started getting better coaching) that you had right after they were drafted?
I found Flynn utterly bewildering
but Wes always seemed to have some promise — if they’d just let him play his natural position! I don’t know if Wes will cut it this year or not, but I’d be glad to bet you that he’ll still be playing in the NBA when he’s 30. Flynn? I doubt it.
My dislike for Flynn grew out his obstinancy. Sure, Rambis was a dick for trying to make a short, fast guy play triangle, but it was very hard to see where Flynn was trying to go with the plan. He suffered from his own wrongheadedness as much as from Rambis’s.
Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!
I guess this fits in with my overall point,
which is that most everyone seems to think we learned something about these guys under Rambis, so it’s a matter of degree. The Wes debate is now down to “does he deserve 0 minutes or some minutes”; where it once was more like “will he be really good or merely adequate”.
I suspect a lot of guys will see improvements in their stats / play relative to last year, but I don’t expect the differences to be as big as you probably do.
Adelman doesn't seemed to be involved in that debate.
Wolves 2011-12: Crossing the Rubikahn....alea iacta est...... " et tu Ricky?"
by Tangerine dream on Jan 24, 2012 8:55 AM CST up reply actions
no one said that.
You said there was a debate between whether Wes should get zero minutes or some minutes. I’m wondering between whom that debate exists.
it doesn’t seem that Adelman is involved in that debate.
Wolves 2011-12: Crossing the Rubikahn....alea iacta est...... " et tu Ricky?"
by Tangerine dream on Jan 24, 2012 9:35 AM CST up reply actions
I was talking about the debate on this site,
which I doubt (and hope) Adelman spends much time on. I don’t think we have any idea what Adelman thinks of Wes right now, because he pretty much has to play him, as we saw last night. We’ve also seen Adelman give Wes a quick hook when he’s had healthy bodies available.
That said, I’m encouraged that they’ve gotten Wes to try a different approach lately. It seems to be working better for him. But I also think it’s telling that his recent performances are considered to be “encouraging”. I wouldn’t have been happy settling for that level of play at the time we drafted him.
As I’ve said before, I didn’t like the Wes pick at the time, but I at least thought he’d be OK, just not the best guy at that spot. He’s really got a long way to climb to get back to there.
id be interested in seeing the BB and AB stats on Wes
He is playing better at three and without Beast on the court (combined affect Imo).
On getting to the rim I’ve contended that Wes is a two dribble penetrator but not three. As you guys have seen more of these games than me, are these drives initiating closer to the hoop now that he’s playing 3?.
Wolves 2011-12: Crossing the Rubikahn....alea iacta est...... " et tu Ricky?"
by Tangerine dream on Jan 24, 2012 9:50 AM CST up reply actions
On his drives starting closer to the hoop: maybe? I don’t think my memory is good enough to sort that out. He definitely looks more aggressive about it to me, though he looks shy about contact at the hoop.
Some stats with and without Beasley (with first):
TS%: 0.459, 0.439
TRB%: 6.1, 7.5
AST%: 10.1, 4.1
STL%: 0.8, 1.6
BLK%: 0.9, 1.3
TOV%: 23.4, 10.7
USG%: 16.1, 18.2
ORtg: 72.1, 88.1
DRtg: 104.0, 104.4
So it looks like his shooting has actually been a little worse, his rebounding is up a little, and the biggest change is a reduction in turnovers.
by Madison Dan on Jan 24, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
thanks for
taking the time to do that
Wolves 2011-12: Crossing the Rubikahn....alea iacta est...... " et tu Ricky?"
by Tangerine dream on Jan 24, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
The reduction in turnovers seems inconsistent,
If he’s been putting the ball on the floor and driving into traffic. Where have the turnovers been coming from? Passing? Is he actually a decent dribbler but just doesn’t know how to use that skill?
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Jan 24, 2012 7:15 PM CST up reply actions
"but I’d be glad to bet you that he’ll still be playing in the NBA when he’s 30. "
Isn’t that just next season?
Nicely done.
"Oh my, oh my, oh my. Is that great basketball or what?" --Hubie Brown, Jan. 20, 2012
by Cynical Jason on Jan 23, 2012 6:31 PM CST up reply actions
Nice post, MD.
I’ve wondered this myself. Those jumpers he fires coming off a pick look wild and unreliable—but they’re going in, right now.
To his credit, Wayne seems to bury that corner trey with consistency. It’s an easy shot that has to be made by starting wings that aren’t contributing in other ways. Rubio generates this shot opportunity better than other Wolves of recent years past.
www.punchdrunkwolves.com
@PDWolves
"Those jumpers he fires coming off a pick look wild and unreliable—but they’re going in, right now."
That was my issue too. People keep talking about wide-open spot-up jumpers… but Wayne takes a lot of shots right in front of the arch almost on the run. They go in, but I cringe every time.
Yeah...
it seems like Eddie House stuff that isn’t sustainable or what we’d like out of a starting player. I guess if they keep going in, by all means…
He’s often times running from left to right and he doesn’t catch the ball in a position to shoot, like somebody like Redick would, but rather spins/pivots on his left foot, not quite getting squared and twists in mid air as he hoists it up there. AND— there is usually ample time on the shot clock when he makes this decision.
I don’t like the way it looks.
www.punchdrunkwolves.com
@PDWolves
I find it to be one of the most intriguing things in sports,
That a guy can be falling, almost upside down and throw up a perfect shot. (Or sitting on his butt on the 3pt line at the most critical point in a game like Blake Hoffarber.) It seems that if nothing else enters the mind, pure concentration , makes a perfect calculation, or maybe it is all subconscious. Shortly after the same guy might miss a ten footer even when his mechanics look perfect and I think, his mind got in the way. My analyses might be completely wrong, however. In the end shooting percentages fall within a fairly narrow range, and I’m no statistician, but if two guys take about the same number of shots it might take weeks given usual winning margins for their percentages to make a difference (and yes I know there are other ways to distil the numbers.) This is magnified by the whole banana sandwich thing. Bib Shot Bob notwithstanding, Beas, KLove, Kobe, or whoever is still going to shoot those shots somewhere within that range. It would, ruin the game though, if someone figured it all out. You gotta believe it’s going to go in and, Contest those shots!
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Jan 23, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
On crazy shot making
Most of the time the shots don’t go in. The ones that do are lucky. Just my opinion, though.
90% of the crap I say on here is sarcastic
by CoffeeJanitor on Jan 23, 2012 5:00 PM CST up reply actions
For now
Wayne asserting himself as longtime keeper at that bench shooter role.
From the chart above it’s clear that he is streaky shooter and to be reliable 8-10 man on good team he needs to be more consistent. Which obviously happens to players with more experience and for him in 3rd year at 25 years old it’s time become one.
Interesting guess, may be his cold streaks relate to conditioning because he is not very long so that pull-up or off screen jumper hugely depends on elevation, and when legs tired shots not falling.
So for two weeks he's in great condition and then for four weeks he's not?
That would be the conclusion over the past couple of years.
You’re probably hypothesizing that that’s the issue this year, that he’s actually found it this year, he was out of basketball shape early, and now’s he’s ready to show for the rest of the year that this is the type of player/shooter he is. Very doubtful. Incredibly doubtful.
I agree that Wayne would improve in his third year, but his shooting trends suggest he relies on confidence more than consisten mechanics. He’s like the prototypical baseball hither who’s seeing beach balls coming out of the pitchers’ hands. The hoop is a hula hoop right now. This wouldn’t be such an issue if his whole value weren’t dependent on his shooting, but it is. Yes, he can get to the hoop right now, but what defender isn’t closing out on him? That will change when the shot’s not falling.
My take on Ellington is that he’s not a rotation guy (except when on a streak like this), but that having him at the end of the bench to play in a pinch is a very useful role for him. He has shooting skills, he hustles, and he doesn’t look lost out there. As player #10-12, he’s good, and if we need his somewhat low salary in trade, it’s there to move. In the meantime, I’ll enjoy his hot streak.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
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