FanPost

Wayne in the Forecast?

As we've all noticed, Wayne Ellington has been playing very well lately. The question we all want answered is: can he keep it going?

Is Wayne taking shots from different locations? Yes, but not necessarily in a good way. Compared to last year, his share of shots from 16 to 23 feet is up from 36 percent to 42 percent. Those usually aren't good shots. Better news is that his share of 3-pointers is up from 30 percent to 39 percent.

Is Wayne's field goal percentage way up compared to last year? Yes, but the only big change is from 16 to 23 feet, which is up from 40 percent to 55 percent. Shooting guards have averaged 36.5 percent this year from 16 to 23 feet, so this rate is probably not sustainable.

Is Wayne doing any thing else a lot better? Not really. He's actually getting to the line at a lower rate than last year; his assist to turnover ratio is down; and his rebounding is down. On the plus side, he's getting more steals and his defensive rating is way down.

So it looks like this is mostly a hot shooting streak for Wayne. Have we seen this before? Sadly, yes. The chart below shows the 5-game moving average of true shooting percentage for each of his three seasons. As you can see in the shortest line for this year, what we've seen from Wayne lately is about as good as it gets for him. You can also see that peaks and valleys have happened for him before, and this looks an awful lot like a peak before an inevitable decline.

Let's hope not.

Waynetschart_medium

via i1082.photobucket.com


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