Good Touch, Bad Touch
by Mplax on Jan 22, 2012 3:09 PM CST
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Before I get started, a hat tip to Madison Dan, which got me thinking about this more.
To introduce this topic, I want to take a moment to discuss one of the smartest and most insightful players to ever play the game. His accolades include words like All-Star. And Champion. He introduced the concept of 'Big Three' to Boston long before KG and Ray ever arrived. He brought his talents, and a title, to South Beach years before LeBron. The only reason we talk about Michael Jordan as the greatest to play the game and not this man is "because there are no fours." That's right. I'm talking about the man, the myth, the legend: Antoine Walker. When I discuss good touches and bad touches, Antoine Walker was way ahead of his time in knowing the proper time and place. 'Toine took almost all of his shots either at the rim or from behind the arc. Easily the two most efficient spots on the floor. And that is what I want to look at with our Wolves. Are we applying 'Toine's logic? Or, despite threes being available as a shot selection, should TWolves players be asked why they're taking so many long twos?
At this point in time, I'd like to invite all readers to take a brief bathroom break or grab some food or refreshments. Once everyone is back in their seats, we'll reconvene after the jump. I hope you'll join us.
Ahem! Everyone! If I could have your attention!
Thank you.
It looks like everyone is back and ready to go, so without further ado, let's begin. Please hold any questions/comments/rude remarks until the end.
Let me begin with this hopefully working chart of shot locations. The data is all available here. I took the liberty of turning the attempts into a percentage of their total shots. And yes, Anthony Tolliver apparently tries very hard not to have any rounding issues with his numbers. I did not fudge those. They are not even rounded. Do the math yourself, from previously mentioned link.
| Player Name | TM | Pos | GP | Min | % Good shots | % Bad Shots | WS/48 | At Rim | 3 to 9 | 9 to 15 | 16 to 23 | Threes |
| Anthony Tolliver | MIN | PF | 15 | 22.6 | 82.50% | 17.50% | 0.088 | 22.50% | 2.50% | 5.00% | 10.00% | 60.00% |
| Nikola Pekovic | MIN | C | 6 | 12.2 | 73.53% | 26.47% | 0.082 | 73.53% | 20.59% | 5.88% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Derrick Williams | MIN | F | 15 | 18.5 | 71.88% | 28.13% | 0.12 | 39.06% | 9.38% | 1.56% | 17.19% | 32.81% |
| JJ Barea | MIN | PG | 6 | 18.7 | 65.17% | 34.83% | 0.116 | 33.71% | 8.99% | 8.99% | 16.85% | 31.46% |
| Kevin Love | MIN | PF | 15 | 39.6 | 63.54% | 36.46% | 0.215 | 35.91% | 11.05% | 9.39% | 16.02% | 27.62% |
| Wesley Johnson | MIN | SG | 15 | 22.3 | 61.76% | 38.24% | -0.004 | 17.65% | 5.88% | 4.41% | 27.94% | 44.12% |
| Luke Ridnour | MIN | PG | 15 | 31.9 | 50.52% | 49.48% | 0.132 | 13.40% | 7.22% | 7.22% | 35.05% | 37.11% |
| Ricky Rubio | MIN | PG | 15 | 31.8 | 48.86% | 51.14% | 0.149 | 26.14% | 6.82% | 7.95% | 36.36% | 22.73% |
| Darko Milicic | MIN | C | 15 | 18.6 | 47.06% | 52.94% | 0.032 | 47.06% | 41.18% | 7.84% | 3.92% | 0.00% |
| Wayne Ellington | MIN | G | 13 | 20.6 | 45.00% | 55.00% | 0.114 | 5.00% | 8.33% | 5.00% | 41.67% | 40.00% |
| Anthony Randolph | MIN | PF | 12 | 12.7 | 44.19% | 55.81% | 0.103 | 41.86% | 16.28% | 13.95% | 25.58% | 2.33% |
| Michael Beasley | MIN | SF | 7 | 31.6 | 39.01% | 60.99% | -0.06 | 29.08% | 13.48% | 16.31% | 31.21% | 9.93% |
Let me just point out some observations before I let you make your own:
- Look at the link I've already provided twice and check out the league average for assist % from each location. I think that plays a large part in why shots from 3-23 are all fairly consistent. Shots from 16-23 are typically open and assisted shots and still don't drop very efficiently.
- Good Touch: Nikola Pekovic: I don't care what position you play, that's a very high percentage of shots at the rim. I think the only Center who clearly has him beat (There's the data, do the math yourself. Or should I cut your steak for you as well!?) is Tyson Chandler. His shots have started to fall and I think he's probably been a lot more efficient the last few games.
- Bad Touch:
- Good Touch: I just got a whole new respect for Anthony Tolliver. This is a man who knows his own limitations, but also knows the limitations of the league as a whole. Very few shots taken between 3 and 23 feet. Good for him. This goes back to SnP's brilliant take on role players in the draft: Take guys who can either score moderately efficiently with the ball in their hands or a guy who can score extremely efficiently off the ball (SnP, feel free to fix the wording here). Tolliver does exactly that. And while his shooting efficiency has fallen off a bit this year, I have no doubt that this will change and he will start canning some open shots.
- Good Touch: Can we start Tolliver at SG? Does this make sense to anyone else or am I just crazy (crazier)? I think he could adequately guard most 2s in this league and it would partially solve our lack of a good SG while opening some more time at the 3/4.
- Bad Touch: Beasley looks even worse than I would have guessed. Gross. And he has shot well over the league average efficiency at the rim and behind the arc this season...
- Good Touch:
-
Good Touch?: Wes takes a high percentage of good shots... and he still sucks (though he has looked pretty solid lately).
- Bad Touch: Ricky could do with fewer in the 16-23ft range. I'd like to see more floaters in the 3-5ft range. That would be an incredible aspect to add to his game. More so than the ability to can a three, IMO.
- Bad Touch:
- Good Touch: I'd like to see numbers on Rubio's assists. It seems as if they're coming mostly from the rim and behind the arc (he's near the top in assists that turn into oops AND in assists that turn into threes, don't know where to find the numbers though). By far the most valuable assists. I could be wrong, but that would make his assists even more valuable.
- Good Touch: Derrick Williams' shot is completely broken right now. And he needs to finish better when contested near the rim. That has nothing to do with this chart, but it's true. And if he can do this, he'll be one of those highly efficient guys without the ball in his hands and a perfect complement to Rubio. What happened to his shot anyways? I mean, we all knew he wasn't going to replicate his college performance, but he's not a top 2 pick if he can't shoot at least 35% from 3 with his skillset (which could develop). I'm not worried yet, but it's starting to get troublesome.
- Bad Touch: Kevin Love needs to stop shooting threes when he's not in frontish of the basket. He looks bad from the corners and sides. Again, not from this chart, but I haven't been able to find shooting zones since NBA.com seems to have removed them and ESPN only has them by game.
- Bad Touch: Randolph's saving grace is that he's extremely efficient at the rim. He needs to cut out the dumb shots and he's an above average starter for sure.
- Bad Touch: Beasley part deaux: He's not a shot creator. He's a shot settler. If he's not going to get to the rim, he has to pass the ball away and let someone else create. Once he starts jabstepping he should pass immediately. Start moving the second you get the ball and your shot with 8 second still on the clock won't turn into an 'all else failed iso' play. So talented... so bad...
- Bad Touch:
-
Looking at the WS/48, you'd have to think guys like Tolliver, Wes, Nikola, and Beasley will go up while Luke and Wayne might be the only ones who drop. I have no idea what will happen with Williams.
- And back to Madison Dan's post: Bad Touch: He brought up a terrific point that Wayne is in a hot streak right now and his shots are still very similar to the past, maybe even worse. I have thought that about a lot of his shots, that they're not the smartest shots but they've been dropping anyways. Well hopefully that keeps up, but I'd rather seem him play more like Tolliver. If it's not a three, you better end up in the lane and near the hoop... unless he's wide open. Then it's just like a college three and I'm pretty comfortable with Wayne and Luke taking wide open long twos within the flow of the offense. Asa long-time backer of Wayne's though, it has been fun to see him finally playing well over multiple games. He's seemingly intelligent, too athletic, and too good of a shooter to not put together at least a respectable career as a high-end 6th/7th man or starter on the right team.
- Good Touch:
-
Notice anything I missed? I'm sure there are plenty of things to gather from a chart like this, even as simple as it is.
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Comments
good stuff!
pekovic is automatic close to the hoop. im not even sure he knows how to shoot anything but a free throw. i’m good with that.
AT may take “good shots” according to your parameters, but he is not good enough at 3s to be taking them for 60% of his shots.
whereas wayne should take any open shot, good or "bad’, because he is a terrific shooter.
d-will simply catches the ball too far from the hoop. he should be catching it on the elbows where he can immediately shoot or take 1 or 2 dribbles and throw it down.
the same goes for beasley. you are right they aren’t really “creators”. when they catch it beyond 3 and don’t shoot a 3…bad stuff happens.
AR just needs to pass it when he catches it too far out unless the shot is open. no creating pls.
Pek is finally showing that badass efficiency from the euro league.
He is a very good free throw shooter for a big man (.100 better than Wes for example for his career) and is crafty around the rim.
It is great to see him finally start to put it together.
by Tollysnipes on Jan 22, 2012 11:10 PM CST up reply actions
Pek
I should have made this comment in the thread about nicknames, but I just made the connection now. While I do like the Godfather music, I think this would really set the tone after a Pek bucket (though some editing for the children would be required):
by stuntmonkeys on Jan 23, 2012 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
Use this link
http://goldishackguerrillas.bandcamp.com/track/bulldozer
It’s the full version of the song and it starts out better for Pek.
by stuntmonkeys on Jan 23, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
I like that song a lot.
Disregarding the nickname I’ve always considered this and this appropriate songs for Pek. More of a rock direction, but still.
"Love is who he is. He is a grinder, a scaveranger . . ." --TO12
by Cynical Jason on Jan 23, 2012 5:01 PM CST up reply actions
Pek has a pretty nice shot!
I remember seeing it once during a game last year. I believe I commented on it during a game thread. Swish. He must be saving it as a secret weapon for the finals!
, said Mplax.
I've seen both him and Darko randomly take midrange J's in the past year or two
I don’t recall either missing. They probably get berated by the coaching staff for doing that though
90% of the crap I say on here is sarcastic
by CoffeeJanitor on Jan 22, 2012 11:28 PM CST up reply actions
Shots from 16-23 are typically open and assisted shots and still don’t drop very efficiently
I don’t see where that conclusion comes from. The data says nothing about how open the shots were, and only shows the percentage of shots made that also scored assists. Unless we know whether or not the percentage of missed shots that would have scored assists is consistent, that statement has no basis. It could just as easily be true that potentially unassisted shots are pulling down the numbers.
by Ray Williams? on Jan 22, 2012 8:22 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'm guessing that there's an element of subjectivity
which is often the case in forming conclusions with stats.
I'm sorry, what?
That’s not statistics, that’s throwing out numbers to make it sound like you’ve proven something that you haven’t, or, more accurately, bullshitting.
by Ray Williams? on Jan 22, 2012 10:56 PM CST up reply actions
If you met two really hot girls at a bar that were into you... and each other...
Would you only leave with one of them?
, said Mplax.
....
I’d like to see numbers on Rubio’s assists. It seems as if they’re coming mostly from the rim and behind the arc (he’s near the top in assists that turn into oops AND in assists that turn into threes, don’t know where to find the numbers though). By far the most valuable assists. I could be wrong, but that would make his assists even more valuable.
by vjl110 on Jan 22, 2012 8:26 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Shot Charts
This is an informative article, thanks for posting.
I also concur that Wayne and Luke (and maybe Brad Miller soon) taking wide open long twos in rhythm is about as good an option as you’ll work for if you pass up those shots. There are still good and bad shots from each spot, and they take generally good shots regardless of where they are.
Nice article
but I wonder about the conclusion. I fully ascribe to the mentality, but the correlation (in ws/48 vs shot selection) does not seem conclusive. Some players (ridnour) break it. Rid is by no means a definitive example because he is one of the best shooters in the league.
If rid was 6’5" he would be the solution. Too bad.
Beas though… You are spot on.
I tried to avoid making any universal conclusions with this
But if I was forced to make one, I think it would be something about SnP’s point being gospel. The guys who have a higher usage and are fairly efficient should have a high WS/48. Same goes for guys who are very efficient without the ball (though lower than the first group). Without A you’ll probably never get much from B, and without B, A will probably never go deep into the playoffs, but it’s a very solid formula all around. I think the numbers (at least for our team) support that the top 4 guys are the guys from group B while the middle 3 are the guys from group A. The guys after that? Don’t need ‘em. That said, those 4 guys seem to be the guys with room to grow so there’s a reason to keep them around on the cheap.
So I would agree that there is little correlation between smart shots and ws/48, but I do think you could partition smart shots into a groups and there would be a much higher correlation. Guys that are way at the top are nice role players, but will never have a Love-like WS#. Guys in the middle are likely the ones that are shooting in volume so their numbers will be lower, but their WS should be higher.
Something to that effect anyways…
, said Mplax.
Response #1
This was a really fine post – very entertaining and it kicked up a lot of dust in my mental corral. So I decided to wait until the middle of the night to try and organize my thoughts. I hope it took you a long time to put your post together because if it didn’t I…Well…I hate you. Did you see the Scorsese Dylan documentary where Leonard Cohen relates how it takes him months to pen a song but when he asked Bob how long it to write one of his gems Bob said, oh, maybe fifteen minutes. Yep, that’s how I’d feel.
I thought the Atoine Walker opening was brilliant. The perfect example of a good idea taken too far. The Wolves Walker and MJ definitely were so similar, like baseball and croquet.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
#2
Jump – Van Halen, please tell me you’ve been saving that one for a long time. I’m kind of obsessive compulsive (I maintain it’s sub-clinical,) I don’t organize all my stats like Tolliver, Do you think he puts every shoe in its own plastic bag when they travel? Listening to music is my main compulsion so be forewarned that (A.) I really don’t listen to lyrics. I’ve got in excess of 50,000 tracks stored around here and I’d be surprised if I knew all the words to more than a dozen. I love a good hook but I came into my cool in the late 60’s and early 70’s and most of the stuff I love from then, even if it wasn’t composed in a drug induced haze, wasn’t exactly a trove of wisdom. (B.) I give extra credit to rock and roll that is rebellious. I don’t listen to rap but I do respect it. Right, wrong, stupid or smart the world is unfair and somebody ought to say something.
Jump is a great song, and Van Halen was quality, but forgive me, the hair, clothes and stage performance are another example of a good idea taken too far.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
It's possible to go too far in campy 1980s fake-produced rock and roll.
“Twisted Sister” is past that line. Van Halen is of the time.
"Opinion ...a confession."
#3
I’m trying to get around to cover songs because I think Aztec Camera’s cover is one of the best. It’s hard to cover a great song, either you have to approximate the original or make it better and that’s so tough. Aztec completely transformed Jump and the greatness of the song stood up. If anyone else has suggestions of favorite covers, I’m all ears. Richard Shindell’s version of Springsteen’s Born In the USA is currently on the top of
my list. The protest vibe is so strong it makes me shiver, and they used the original in a car commercial!
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
#4
I looked at the chart above and at first thought the percentages were shooting percentages and I thought, good grief how do the Wolves ever win a game. This is just to emphasize that I’m not a numbers guy. I sometimes suggest that some people conceptualize things in a linear or numerical form and others in a geometric or relative form. I don’t present this as an actual theory but only present it as another way of understanding our differences, and in this instance it will hopefully cover up my scattered brain lazy approach,
The arguments about where on the floor to shoot from, and the relative values of the players who take those shots have gotten a bit snarky today, but I want to make a few comments below. And no you don’t have to cut my steak for me, I mean unless you want me to eat it.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
#5
When my son was in junior high school he had to defend Albert Lea’s (and later NDSU’s) Ben Woodside. He was a pretty good defensive player but he told me “Dad, I can’t stop him. If I man up on him all the way out to where he can hit from he just goes around me, he’s too quick.” Later when Ben scored 37 points against Kansas and the color guy said, “The Kansas guards can’t stop him, his first step is too quick,” I laughed and emailed him saying, "I know it’s kind of late but don’t feel bad you’re in good company.
I’m just wondering If anyone else sees the difficulty in playing tough D at 3 and 23 and letting them shoot in between if you have to. No wonder everyone wants Dwight Howard. Even CH’s favorite punching bag, Wes Johnson, has been getting around that 23 foot defender pretty easily, and boom he’s pretty close to 3ft. AT, however, gets to about 15 and looses the ball, his first step isn’t fooling anybody. I’m not saying the numbers lie, I’m just saying applying those numbers is problematic, and while we’re arguing horizontal distances, Kobe, Dirk, and KD are thinking diagonally and fractally. See… geometry.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Jan 23, 2012 3:36 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
#6
Was it Hubie that described Rubio as…runs the pick and roll like Stockton, passes like Maravich, and maintains his dribble like Nash. Man, that’s some serious praise. Ricky really makes the 3 and 23 defense thing difficult. He eats help defense like Homer eats mmm…everything. But it seems that maintaining that dribble changes the whole offensive orientation. I mean you know how Ch’ers feel about Luke dribbling and dribbling and dribbling. Ball movement, and team passing are whole new animals with Ricky out there. If he passes it to you, you better either shoot it right now or move it on. I’ve been watching for that second pass and assist and there haven’t been too many yet.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
#7
Finally, nobody tells Ricky about the 3 and 23, Okay? Ricky’s shots count too, but he doesn’t really shoot to score per se, he shoots because when he makes them, defenders tear their hair out. Also if they’re open between 3 and 23 and Ricky hits them with a no look, behind the back, through the defenders legs pass, the other guys gotta shoot too, because Ricky is telling them: “this is how we are going to beat these guys.”
There, see what I can do under the cover of darkness? Now if I can just figure out where #1 went.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
+1. This is very close to a thought I had when I saw ricky's numbers
Ricky’s magic is in his unpredictability. When the ball is in his hands the defender has no idea what to do. His willingness to shoot from anywhere, whether nor not it is a “good” shot, just adds more things for a defender to worry about.
The times when Ricky is “shooting to score” it seems (eye test) that his shot selection is very, very good.
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