22 Years of Data on the 43rd Pick in the Draft
by atlastata on Jan 27, 2012 1:03 PM CST
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PrintThere has been a fair amount of discussion about Malcolm Lee; how good he is, how not good he is, whether he will be a solid rotation player, etc... I know there has been a fair amount of discussion of his college statistics, but I wanted to look at the production of players who were drafted at the same spot as Lee. A look at the numbers after the jump.
| Name | G | MP | MP/G | PTS/G | TRB/G | AST/G | WS | WS/48 | PER |
| Devin Ebanks | 28 | 244 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.116 | 12.8 |
| Marcus Thornton | 158 | 4077 | 25.8 | 13.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 0.096 | 16.7 |
| Patrick Ewing Jr. | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.158 | 0.6 |
| Adam Haluska | |||||||||
| Marcus Vinicius | 26 | 172 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.056 | 8.8 |
| Mile Ilic | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -1.264 | -48.6 |
| Trevor Ariza | 464 | 11629 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 21.2 | 0.088 | 13.6 |
| Keith Bogans | 586 | 12970 | 22.1 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 18.9 | 0.070 | 9.9 |
| Lonny Baxter | 162 | 1884 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 0.075 | 11.6 |
| Kyle Hill | |||||||||
| Michael Redd | 582 | 19396 | 33.3 | 19.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 55.0 | 0.136 | 19.6 |
| Lee Nailon | 306 | 5819 | 19.0 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.066 | 14 |
| Jahidi White | 334 | 5913 | 17.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 10.6 | 0.086 | 14.3 |
| Gordon Malone | |||||||||
| Ben Davis | 40 | 154 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.040 | 12.5 |
| Eric Snow | 846 | 23132 | 27.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 43.4 | 0.090 | 12.2 |
| Shawnelle Scott | 105 | 634 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.101 | 13.1 |
| Josh Grant | 53 | 382 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.060 | 11.7 |
| Sasha Danilovic | 75 | 2331 | 31.1 | 12.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 0.087 | 11.7 |
| Lamont Strothers | 13 | 155 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.142 | 5.8 |
| Tony Massenburg | 683 | 12285 | 18.0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 15.6 | 0.061 | 11.9 |
| Chucky Brown | 694 | 11962 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 19.0 | 0.076 | 11.6 |
What stands out? Michael Redd is easily the best 43rd pick of the last 22 years. Marcus Thornton is probably the second best. A couple guys received a bit of playing time. Eric Snow hung around forever, Chucky Brown, Tony Massenburg, Keith Bogans, and Trevor Ariza played over 10000 minutes. Lee Nailon and Jahidi White lasted between 5 and 7 years, which is above average for an NBA player (though both played on some awful teams; Nailon on the 19 win Hornets team that got them Chris Paul, White on the 18 win Wizards team that got them Kwame Brown). Sasha Danilovic only played two years - he was drafted in '92, started in '95, and left the NBA in '97 at the ripe old age of 27.
Beyond that, the pickings are slim at best. Half of the players never got past their rookie contracts. Besides Redd, none of the players can lay a great claim to being an above average NBA player, and only six would probably be rotation players.
What does this mean to Lee? It does not mean that he is an automatic bust. It is, rather, a caution against considering Lee as a prospect without noting that he was simply not talented enough and/or not productive enough to become a first round draft pick, and second round draft picks, particularly mid-to-late second round draft picks (like Lee) generally do not enjoy significant success. In fact, it's virtually a coin flip that they play more than a season's worth of games.
Takeaway: despite the fact that Lee is on the roster, the Timberwolves are still in dire straits when it comes to wing players, because it is more likely than not that Lee does not solve any problems. If he gives adequate production for more than 10minutes per game, he becomes one of the more successful 43rd picks in the last 22 years. I would still suspect that Lee will not play a lot of minutes, score a lot of points, be very productive, or last more than three years in the league.
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That list is actually better than I thought it would be.
I think this is the first time in history one man managed to destroy an entire city by himself. Even the Enola Gay had a flight crew.
1 or 2 2nd round picks every year
prove to have been ridiculously undervalued.
Wolves are due for one. No reason it can’t be Lee this year
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
My point is more
dude is breaking down only 43rd picks….but really it’s a question of good players that fell to the 2nd round, why the fell, and what situations they went too to make them better
I look at Marcus Thornton and it’s no surprise to me that he gets drafted to a good coach and the best PG in the NBA to set him up and get his confidence up etc and he’s one of the better sleepers in the past couple years. A lot of guys have talent and height generally gets drafted before speed in the NBA, opportunity and taking advantage of it is often the determining factor in all players drafted 1-62 or whatever. There are players drafted every now and then like Love who are above-situation, meaning that no matter what team they are on they will succeed….but most NBA players good, bad and ugly and even sometimes great players are made or broken by the situation they are drafted too
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
Thanks for posting this
A lot of people on here are assuming Lee with be good when history indicates that this would be an exceptional occurrence.
It makes you wonder why they gave Lee a guaranteed 3 year contract. I know that it’s at the league minimum, but it’s still a roster spot.
Probably cause they like him
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
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