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What's Different?

The Wolves have clearly improved a lot relative to last year. We all know that swapping Rambis and Flynn for Adelman and Rubio made a big difference, but what shows up in the stats so far?


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First of all, the Wolves are not shooting better than they were last year. Last year, their true shooting percentage (TS%) was 0.526. This year, it is 0.523. The good news for the Wolves is that shooting is down league-wide, so their ranking has gone up from 25th to 14th.

Turnovers are down as well, but not by that much. The Wolves have gone from 30th to 21st in turnovers, cutting them by about 0.5 per game (pace adjusted, as are all other per-game stats).

Assist per game are actually down, though their ranking is up from 28th to 27th. Steals are up a bit (22nd to 17th). Blocks are way down (12th to 28th). Rebounding is down a bit (7th to 11th).

Here's the big difference: their defensive rating (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions) is down a whopping 10 points, moving them up from 27th to 13th in the league. According to some work I did last summer, a team wins two more games (over an 82-game season) for every point that its defensive rating goes down. This means that the improvement in defense accounts for about 20 more wins over a full season. By itself, what they've done on defense so far is the difference between terrible and average.

So as pretty as Rubio's work on offense has been, it's the defense (by pretty much everyone, with Adelman's guidance) that's making the big difference right now.

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Here's the difference

They are +90 vs. their opponents in FT attempts, and +70 in 3PA. Last year they were minus in both of those categories. It’s both sides. They are fouling less on defense and drawing more fouls on offense. They shot a lot of 3s last year, but have moved from 9th in 3PAs to 7th this year; defensively they have moved from last in the league in opponent 3PAs (most given up) to 8th. That is a huge and dramatic difference.

I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 28, 2012 4:12 PM CST reply actions  

The funny thing is

that all of those FT attempts and 3-pointers haven’t improved their shooting efficiency (TS%) one bit, because they’re FT% and 3PT% are both down. Their 2PT FG% has stayed about the same. I think you’ve got a good point about the opponent 3-pointers, which is reflected in the big drop in opponent eFG% across years (from 0.514 to 0.471).

I just did some quick regression work using the same 5-year data set of team stats, and the difference between ORtg and DRtg explains about 95 percent of the variation in wins. (This is obviously a lot like Pythagorean wins.) We’ve gone from -6.9 last year (good for 23.8 wins) to +1.7 this year (for 45.2 wins in an 82-game season). Our ORtg – DRtg is ninth best in the Western Conference, just behind Houston and ahead of the Clippers and Jazz.

This could actually be a fringe playoff team this year.

by Madison Dan on Jan 28, 2012 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

"This could actually be a fringe playoff team this year."

"Oh my, oh my, oh my. Is that great basketball or what?" --Hubie Brown, Jan. 20, 2012

by Cynical Jason on Jan 28, 2012 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

". . . defensively they have moved from last in the league in opponent 3PAs (most given up) to 8th. That is a huge and dramatic difference."

Rambis left and we started defending the 3-point arc. And the guys are doing a good job at it!

"Oh my, oh my, oh my. Is that great basketball or what?" --Hubie Brown, Jan. 20, 2012

by Cynical Jason on Jan 28, 2012 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

In a previous topic

I mentioned how every player who played for the wolves last year had their drtg decline (improve) from last year to this year. This included players who were traded away like flynn (-5). Even sundiata gaines’ drtg is less this year then last. Every player still in on the teams drtg has declined by 7 pts or more. The universality of this change must be given to the diff in how the 2 coaches handle defense.

The only player who has not seen an improvement is Webster who hasn’t played yet.

Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?

by the Real Thor on Jan 28, 2012 5:33 PM CST via Android app up reply actions  

Hooray lockout?

I wonder how much that has helped in terms of the defense. Not fouling, not giving up a ton of threes, and defensive rebounding can go a long way with bad shooting and league wide tired legs/injuries.

Follow @canishoopus

by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 28, 2012 4:33 PM CST reply actions  

exactly.. I'm a little concerned our record..

is as much a manifestation of other teams playing poorly as it us playing well. I guess time will tell.

by bsg007 on Jan 28, 2012 4:36 PM CST up reply actions  

On the other hand

logic would suggest a young team with new players (like ours) would improve more than the teams with older players who just showed up out of shape.

The Wolves are playing better than I expected, and I expect them to get better with each passing month.

Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!

by TMiss on Jan 28, 2012 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

My hope is that Adelman is able to....

….get a healthy enough roster to get to a 8-9 man rotation by March. I think that alone could be worth some victories. Webster taking Wes minutes, Beasley off the bench, and Pek/Miller getting Darko’s minutes could be worth a lot.

Follow @canishoopus

by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 28, 2012 4:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, except for the brutal stretch of schedule

that has us on the road forever with a lot of back-to-backs, I don’t expect us to get worse, barring an injury to Love or Rubio. I might not think that if we’d had a normal off-season, but there’s no way Adelman has implemented everything he wants to yet.

by Madison Dan on Jan 28, 2012 4:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, it looks like the league-average DRtg is down

from 107.2 to 102.4. (Same for the ORtg, obviously.) So maybe half of our improvement on defense could be attributed to sucky league-wide play. Nearly holding our own on offense could be interpreted as improving a lot relative to other teams (sorry, Eric, should have given you more credit there).

by Madison Dan on Jan 28, 2012 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Comparing to league average

Yeah, despite the Wolves actually scoring at a less-efficient rate than they did last year, they’ve improved relative to the league because most everyone else has dropped dramatically. They went from being 3 points worse than average last year to being 0.3 points better now. So like you say, relative to the league it’s been a fairly remarkable turnaround.

And their defensive gain has been dramatic enough that they’re still above average despite the stingy scoring thoughout the league. Last year they were 3.9 points worse than average; this year they’re 1.4 points better-than-average in Drtg.

However it’s been accomplished, it’s impressive work by all involved. And outside of maybe Rubio, I’m not sure they’ve got anybody most observers might consider plus man-on-man defenders.

Competence!

by jianfu on Jan 28, 2012 6:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

I think Adelman has probably made a huge difference. Getting to the line and shooting 3s (and keeping your opponents from doing the same) is a pretty good way to win in the NBA.

I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 28, 2012 6:12 PM CST up reply actions  

And, really,

in all of these categories where the Wolves have bettered their position because the other teams have fallen off demands the question: why haven’t the Wolves fallen off at the same pace? I think it’s competent coaching.

"Oh my, oh my, oh my. Is that great basketball or what?" --Hubie Brown, Jan. 20, 2012

by Cynical Jason on Jan 28, 2012 6:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice post

Rubio’s passing can be blinding…to the other parts of his game.

by Django Z on Jan 28, 2012 9:43 PM CST reply actions  

The thing that hasn't come us here is "Pace."

I started to post a comment, but it turned into a separate thread over my morning cereal.

"First, I'd like to blame the Lord for causing us to lose today."

by feral on Jan 29, 2012 10:00 AM CST reply actions  

There's a reason for that.

Other than adjusting per-game stats for pace (which is important when comparing across teams), my statistical model showed that pace doesn’t affect team wins much either way. That comes from a comparison across teams using five years of data. For any one team, it may be that they’re much better suited to playing a particular pace, which my analysis didn’t address.

I’ll check out your FanPost, too.

by Madison Dan on Jan 29, 2012 11:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Several teams are sporting new approaches to pace this time around.

It’s not just us, where I think the basic picture is that Adelman has reined things in to try to stanch the defensive bleeding and keep turnovers from going nuts on us. Phoenix is just about in the dead center of the league, these days. Portland’s gone from being the slowest team out there to one of the fastest, which is really interesting.

In general I think the early season’s been affected pretty hard by the lockout, but that still doesn’t explain different teams heading in different directions on that ranked list of team pace.

(As far as not seeing “fast” or “slow” paces lining up with winning or losing so much, sure, teams can win or lose playing lots of different ways. It’s still interesting to see that a given coach approaches his talent in a new way; I think it did matter that Bill Musselman slowed the inaugural Wolves to a crawl to keep games close. The “Pace” number has a lot of indirect stuff causing it, but there still is an overall arc, and it describes something that’s essentially real.)

"First, I'd like to blame the Lord for causing us to lose today."

by feral on Jan 29, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think good coaches pick a pace that matches the personnel,

which I think is a big part of what’s happened in Portland, for example.

My analysis looked for whether there’s any inherent advantage to playing a faster or slower pace, which does not appear to be the case.

by Madison Dan on Jan 29, 2012 12:35 PM CST up reply actions  

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