Who Should Play?
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jan 30, 2012 2:54 PM CST
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PrintI'm nervous. You can probably guess why, but the explanation is below the jump.
I'm primarily nervous about how the rotation is handled with a fuller roster. I'm assuming there will be few games where all 15 are available, but even then, there are some possible quandaries. Some might not see them as such; feel free to say why in the comments. But to me, with the exception of Brad Miller (who's obviously played very little), several players have shown that they can contribute if the matchup is right and they're right.
With that in mind, though, that's not to say that all 15 are created equal or even that the non-Rubio-Love-13 are created equal. My first thought in narrowing this down is determining a minimum level of acceptability for rotation players. To me, that means looking at the baseline of the worst rotation player on the worst Western Conference playoff team (by SRS, not record) according to Win Shares/48 minutes. Last year, that was Willie Green, then of the Hornets, who posted a .052 WS/48.
The problem? Without including Martell Webster's 2 games or Miller's 1, the Wolves have 9 guys above that so far this season: Love, Pekovic, Ridnour, Rubio, Randolph, Barea, Williams, Ellington, and Tolliver. Only Ellington and Tolliver are below .095. Then, there's the issue of determining whether guys like Beasley and Johnson bring something not reflected in stats.
I'm not going to get into that, though my guess is it would come up in the comments. Personally, I think the Wolves have some guys who should always be in with the game on the line if they're healthy and haven't fouled out (Love and Rubio obviously), several more who should play if they're healthy, and several others who should play depending on the matchup. My sole questions (all of these qualified based on the number of healthy bodies):
- Who should play?
- How many should be in the rotation?
- How much game-by-game flexibility should there be for the end of the rotation that depends on situations?
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Too many guys.
We need to move some average/expiring players for one decent to above average wing.
I started trying to make a chart of all our guys and how many minutes to give them at each position. It was a failure. I forgot entirely about D-Will. I guess subconsciously I want him to be traded.
Anthony Randolph, Love, Williams, Tolliver, and Beasley all can play PF. Williams hasn’t produced at the position well enough to justify giving him playing time in front of the others. Williams has the most trade value.
Ideally I would like to see him moved for long coveted Ellis or Iguodala.
It's a mess
But I think we might be overrating the idea of stable rotations. Where did the stability of a Darko-Love-Beasley-Wes-Ridnour starting 5 get us?
Right now, experimentation should trump stability with everyone excluding Love and Rubio.
So, to answer your questions:
1. Who should play? The guys Adelman has seen the least. Specifically, Wes and Ellington need to be moved down the depth chart to make way for guys like Barea, Webster, and Lee (after his D-league stint). Give those guys a good look. We’ve seen enough from Wes and Ellington over the past couple of seasons to know what they can give us.
2. How many should be in the rotation? Probably about 10, barring foul trouble/injuries.
3. How much flexibility at the end of the rotation? Lots, if that’s what is needed to give us the best chance of winning.
Changing the rotations
is also beneficial for Wolves from perspective of opposing scouting reports. If they consistently run the same five, other teams will see (and have seen) the plays and dissected the weaknesses. I understand a solid five in crunch time, but I agree that experimentation is important in rebuilding stages.
Additionally, I hope Adelman doesn’t keep playing Love and Rubio over 40 minutes. The production is good, but it’s not worth it to run them into the ground, even if we get a few more wins and yes, a playoff bid.
by Jordan Seiffert on Jan 30, 2012 4:13 PM CST up reply actions
Your first paragraph
Ha, trickery and gimmicks to leave opposing teams off balance (kind of like that zone last night!). Believe me, I’d love for us to simply have better talent on the floor so that we don’t need to constantly change up the rotation. This is a symptom of mediocrity unfortunately. We simply don’t have enough good players right now.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 30, 2012 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
The depth makes us an above average team in a compressed season.
66 games in 120 days. Fresh legs will win long term. I do agree we could move some at the end of our team but I don’t think we should stick with 8-10 like most teams when we can use 12-13 per game.
Yes bench-level depth keeps guys fresh
but the absence of plus-level talent means that we are beating Love and Rubio to a pulp because we don’t have any production with them on the bench.
I'd go...
PG – Rubio, Barea, Ridnour
SG – Webster, Ellington, (Lee)
SF – Beasley, Johnson
PF – Love, Williams, Randolph, (Tolliver)
C – Milicic, Pekovic, (Miller)
Love – 24 @ PF; 12 @ C = 36
Rubio – 30 @ PG = 30
Beasley – 24 @ SF = 24
Webster – 18 @ SG; 6 @ SF = 24
Barea – 12 @ PG; 12 @ SG = 24
Milicic – 18 @ C = 18
Williams – 6 @ SF; 12 @ PF = 18
Ridnour – 6 @ PG; 12 @ SG = 18
Pekovic – 18 @ C = 18
Johnson – 12 @ SF = 12
Randolph – 12 @ PF = 12
Ellington – 6 @ SG = 6
Speaking for Cynical Jason
Pekovic should be given at least 48 minutes a C and perhaps another 24 at PF.
Don’t tell me it can’t be done.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 30, 2012 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I love you, man.
"Oh my, oh my, oh my. Is that great basketball or what?" --Hubie Brown, Jan. 20, 2012
by Cynical Jason on Jan 30, 2012 10:57 PM CST up reply actions
Agree with most
except I would want to see Ellington play 12 minutes, ridnour to play 6 at SG if any because Luke kills us on the defensive end, and when his shots dont fall he is useless. I would also want Williams and Beasley split 21 minutes until one of them steps up. Then we could go back with 24/18 with the better player playing more minutes.
Well,
does tonight qualify for Beasley stepping up? Lol. And yea I understand what you mean with Ridnour, and trust me, I would love for Wayne to get more minutes. He is one of my favorite Wolves. I just don’t think he has done enough bad to deserve that significant of a cut in his minutes. But I am so sick of watching him dribbling circles around people until he gets an inch of separation just so he can launch a stupid shot. He IS an above average shooter, but he should be a catch and shoot. Not creating his own.
Oh and
Randolph to lose 6 of his minutes to Pek, and the other 6 to Miller. At least Miller knows what he is doing out there…
And if you look up at my roster
you’ll see Miller in parentheses. That would mean that he is not one of the 12 that dress. I want to see what Randolph really has. I’d like to see him and Pek on the floor and see what Pek’s size and Adolph’s shot blocking can do for us defensively. Randolph and Rubio have a good chemistry, and I think we should see if Rubio can bring the best out of him. If he can, he may be a guy we should keep around beyond this season.
PG: Rubio (36) / Barea (8) / Ridnour (4)
SG: Ridnour (25) / Webster (10) / Leelington (13)
SF: Webster (20) / Beasley (28)
PF: Love (36) / Williams (12)
C: Darpekadolphic (48) [Matchup dependent but tilted toward Pek]
Only 8 for Barea?
I don’t have much of a problem with most of the rest.
I'd rather see Barea
with more minutes at SG than Luke. He’s an equal ball handler to Luke, at least an equal defender, and can create offense, where Luke stops offensive flow dead in its tracks.
"Oh my, oh my, oh my. Is that great basketball or what?" --Hubie Brown, Jan. 20, 2012
by Cynical Jason on Jan 30, 2012 11:00 PM CST up reply actions
I don't like Rubio + Barea together...
and I am not as in love with Barea as most seem to be.
I think Ridnour is the better player between the two, and really like Rid’s ability to score with an ugly shot after the play breaks down. I would be happy to move the 4 Rid minutes at PG to Barea, but like keeping him as the dedicated Rubio backup.
Anything with Ridnour over 10 minutes hardly keeps me interested
Not your fault. Mine entirely.
at running the second unit
for about twenty minutes a game, or filling in for injured starters.
Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!
Honestly I think it should all be about matchups
- a SG we don’t think will kill us then play Ridnour a lot (or Barea when he gets back).
- a SG we’re worried about (Monta, Kobe, Martin etc.) play Webster more. Spot minutes for Wellington/Lee.
- SF if you want defense play Webster or Tolliver, you want offense play Beasley. Keep Johnson off the court.
- PG = Ricky…
- PF = Love, with Williams as the backup.
- C = I’m ok with Darko when we need a big defender though I think Pek is getting undersold there. Against a Dalembert/Okafor non-offensive big we can roll with Pek and AR as the backup.
It’s been said a ton but it makes no sense to keep Williams on this team.
Also I liked the zone expirement
but I think Adelman sticks with it too long. Teams adapt to that type of thing quickly in the NBA so 4-8 minutes at a time tops. We were just giving Houston open 3 pointers like Rambis was coaching. Thankfully a combination of them not shooting great and our offense being quite efficient made it not matter too much.
I still dont get NBA zone defense
In Europe there is no limitations (you coluld completely leave your man and guard the space) and you play zone if you want to stop driving or a dominant big. Of course liability of zone def is opponents 3 point shoot. Why Adelman played zone last night? Dalemebert is’nt much of a treath in paint and Houston didnt killed us with drives. (Or i didnt saw it was 3AM here and watched jittery stream so i didnt saw much.)
I think Martin was driving at will
but at some point that’s almost better than the 3 point looks.
Right now
Other than Ricky and Love (who are safely ashore,) each Wolf is like a plastic bottle floating on the rough waves of the Adelman sea. From where I’m watching they bob up and down. One game one is up, another is missing , and still another appears to be sinking. The next night one feared drowned reappears but another is going down. Eventually some will wash ashore and some will float away.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
Didn't Nellie experiment with some bizarro rotation towards the end w/ GSW?
I seem to recall he’d platoon certain players, starting some games then sitting out other ones entirely. The idea being it’s better to get a longer run on certain nights and total rest on others. I wouldn’t mind trying that with a compressed season:
Plays every game: Love, Darko/Pek, Beasley (off the bench), Ricky
5 of these 7 play each game based on matchup and/or rotation: Williams/AR, Tolliver, Webster, Ellington, Ridnour/Barrea
2 ride the pine waiting for an opening due to injury or play gabage time: Miller, Lee
my take
pg – rubio (35) barea (13)
sg – webster(25) barea (8) defensive wing/3-point specialist/malcolm lee(15, only in the first 3 quaters)
sf – beasley (32) defensive wing/3-point specialist X(16)
pf- love (39) tolliver (9)
c – pekovic (29) darko-miller (19).
in my perfect world we trade ridnour and derrick williams for a major upgrade in the wings. kevin martin would be great, lots of minutes available for him at the 2-guard and some at the 3 when we play small. but really, i would settle for an oj mayo, wilson chandler, nicolas batum.
i just don’t know where to put derrick williams right now, unless you go small, and even that seems to work better with anthony randolph and love than d-will and love).
ridnour to me is gone sooner rather than later once jj and lee come back, there won’t be.enough minutes at the 1, you can’t play rubio less than 35 per game, and i just hate playing small guys at the 2-guard, specially on d.
adelman is better at this than me, so i will be happy with almost anything he comes up with, but i really think that once he has everybody healthy and ready to play, he is not going small in the backcourt, and that means trouble for someone.
This is the best rotation I could come up with...
I know this is far from ideal, but there are so many minutes to go around and I wanted to get guys like Randolph and Ellington some minutes. Once we part ways with one of our many talented forwards, there will be more minutes to go around. My biggest concerns are that I didn’t give enough minutes to Webster at SG (since he can likely better defend bigger/more dominant SGs than Barea and certainly better than Ridnour), that I didn’t give any minutes to Tolliver and that I only gave minutes to Randolph at center (certainly not his best position). What do you guys think?
PG – Rubio, Barea
SG – Webster, Ridnour, Barea, Ellington, (Lee)
SF – Beasley, Webster, Johnson
PF – Love, Williams, (Tolliver)
C – Milicic, Pekovic, Randolph, (Miller)
Love – 30 @ PF; 6 @ C = 36
Rubio – 36 @ PG = 36
Beasley – 24 @ SF = 24
Webster – 6 @ SG; 12 @ SF = 18
Barea – 12 @ PG; 12 @ SG = 24
Milicic – 12 @ C = 12
Williams – 18 @ PF = 18
Ridnour – 18 @ SG = 18
Pekovic – 24 @ C = 24
Johnson – 12 @ SF = 12
Randolph – 12 @ C = 12
Ellington – 12 @ SG = 12
I messed up the minutes at center
Pek should only get 18.
If Everyone is Healthy
Starters PG SG SF PF C Totals
Rubio 35 35
Webster 20 5 25
Wes 5 15 20
Love 27 8 35
Pek 25 25
Reserves
B-Easy 20 5 25
Rid 13 5 18
Darko 15 15
Dwill 8 16 24
Barea 18 18
Foul Trouble/ Matchup Trouble
Randolph 0
Toliver 0
Wayne 0
Rarely Active
Miller 0
Lee 0
48 48 48 48 48
Basically go 10 deep – unless a matchup is killing us or foul trouble. Miller and Lee are the odd men out if really all 15 are healthy (can you still only have 12 active players for a game?).
I know everyone hates Wes – but they seeem to think he brings something. If B-Easy is having a night like Chicago then Wes and D-Will’s minutes get cut. Luke gets all the backup PG minutes as Barrea is a 2G is a PG body. If D-Will and Wes are getting worked – then Toliver/Randolph comes in to cover their minutes.
Overall – you hope to get something (anything) out of Wes and hope Webster can give your average (and maybe a few games of above average) play and it is a pretty solid line-up. Young, mistake prone, up and down – but talented and capable of playing extremely well.
that didn't work
The last number is total minutes and you all can probably guess what positions the minutes fall at… oh well … I tried…
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