So, it's not that sophisticated and I'm hoping to use this to open up discussion among people who know stats better than me.
I read this morning that Roy has started the season off shooting only 8 of 30, or .267, from the field, and I thought to myself, 'How unlikely is it that this is just a random cold spell given Roy's career fg%?'
And so I made a quick model which simulates how many makes someone with Roy's career fg% would make out of thirty attempts (think of it this way - you're flipping a weighted coin that is heads 45% of the time and tails 55% - out of thirty flips, how likely is it that you'd only get 8 heads?), and then ran it 1000 times. Plotting the results yielded:
So - takeaways:
- On average the model produced an average of 13.7 makes, (in fg% terms an average of .458, which is almost identical to his actual career fg% of .459, so that's right on).
- to the left you'll see a white area of 8 or fewer shots. That's the territory Roy is in right now. If you're familiar with p-values, what this is basically telling us is that it's pretty unlikely that Roy's shooting struggles right now are because of pure random chance. (This is where I'm hoping more stats educated people can chip in, maybe verify I'm on the right track or help get me there). In my intro stats class right now we'd say that this represents strong evidence against the null model.
- In other words, something's affecting Roy's ability to make shots right now. His shooting % is most likely not a random fluctuation.
This is the second part where I'm hoping people can help fill in the gaps. I don't know enough about the details of shooting a basketball to give any reasonable theories as to what is limiting him. My only thought is that his legs really aren't in game shape yet, and it seems like that would be important to shooting but I'm not really sure. I remember reading about Ricky's shooting once and someone pointed out that he kicks his feet out every which way and that's why he's not a good shooter, whereas Ray Allen's feet are always the same on every shot. Anyways, please share your opinions because I don't know.