The Road to Batum
by OR-7 on Feb 12, 2012 2:11 PM CST
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More than a few of us believe Nic Batum is the perfect player for the Wolves. I concur. After the break, I illustrate how Kahn can get there and the things he MUST do to bring the Frenchman here. Oh, and with a little Morrow on the side if anyone is awake at 600 First Avenue.
Two, I make the assumption from varying news reports that the cap for next season will remain around $58 million and possibly creep up to 60 or 61 million. In 2013-14 is when the "harder" numbers of the new CBA come in to play. Kahn can cross that bridge when he gets there. For now I'm going to assume a $58 million cap once more next year.
Third, I'm guessing Love's new contact will pay him in the vicinity of $15 million next season.
Okay, with these assumptions, what do we have?
Roughly $49 million on the hook to the following 10 players: Love, Rubio, Pek, Darko, JJ, Luke, D-Dub, Wes, Wayne and Lee.
I assume the team options for Martell and Miller will not be picked up at this point.
Now, that leaves Beas and AR and their restricted status. If you offer them QOs, those contract holds chew up your cap space. For the two of them combined- that's 12 million. Bye bye cap space.
I am of the firm opinion that under no circumstances can these two receive QOs if they remain with the team after the March trade deadline.
"But, OR-7," you may be asking, "what amount of cap space is necessary to get Batum here?" A very important question. My answer: $13 million. A 4 year contract for $13 million/per year is what Kahn needs to be focused upon. Furthermore, you must be asking how I came up with the grand number of $13 million? Another excellent question.
Check the Blazers out: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm
More assumptions to be made:
1. Owner Paul Allen is looking to become a Scrooge on the bottom line- he doesn't want to pay the tax any longer.
2. I find it hard to believe Wallace and Crawford are not directing their agents to exercise their player options for 2012/13.
3. The Blazer star, LaMarcus Aldridge, is already slated to make $13 million next season.
And that is what is most interesting about the $13 million. Leaving aside Portland assumptions 1 & 2 for a moment, NBA locker rooms have a pecking order that follows along who's getting the most Benjamins. No way do the Blazers want to tick off their stud by paying a player who the coach won't currently play more than 30 minutes a night $13 million per year. I admit, the last point is arguable: "well doesn't that mean Batum isn't worth the large payday?" For them, yes. Nate McMillan is a different coach, different system and they continue to be snarky with Nic here in PDX (although not Blazer fans- they love him). He can play for 'Sota at 13 million because our stud will be higher. Wolves locker room pecking order is sound.
And just to quickly address points 1 and 2, I don't see Paul Allen spending 13 million for a player that backups the player Coach prefers (Wallace) and is not a PG or center (the team's two GLARING holes).
Back to the Wolves side of the ledger....
So, assuming, 9 million in space if we do not go forward with Beas and AR, how do we grab that extra room?
The candidates: Luke, Darko and Wes. Any of them can be amnestied with Darko the most likely candidate as Mr. Taylor would have to eat only one year of the contract. Darko's roughly 5 million would get us to $14 million in space, which works, but is a little too tight for my comfort.
What we want is a bit more, though, correct? Kahn should be attacking his salary cap issues like a pack of Wolves!
Luke would appear to be the most viable trade candidate as he is a vet PG and is on a very reasonable deal for such services. Luke needs to be gone by the trade deadline. That will be sign #1 that Kahn is paying attention.
Oh, and I mentioned Anthony Morrow, didn't I? I did. If the Dwight Howard saga plays out to the point where the Nets know they are not getting D12, D-Will is most certainly going to be sold along to recoup something from the Jazz trade. If I'm Kahn, I pounce on that rebuilding mojo and offer Wes and a future #1 for Morrow. Make it the Utah, Memphis or a protected Minny pick- doesn't matter. Take advantage- get Morrow!
There, I've added Morrow and Batum and still left us with $6 million in space (assuming Darko amnesty) to go out and get a low usage, defensive center and whatever other flavored vet(s) we need to rock the NBA world in 2012/13.
Kahn has to strategize his way to Batum, at least, and I really hope he's paying attention. If all the movement fails to land Batum, so be it, as you've left yourself the versatility to reconstruct a club that is more attuned to RA's system.
Thoughts? How'd I do for my first FanPost?
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According to storytellers,
Love makes 12,922,250 next year.
http://www.storytellerscontracts.com/
Did you also factor in the 1.5M cap hit for releasing Webster and Miller?
No, but if the cap # for Love is
13 million than my numbers come out in the wash. Thank you for the info on Martell and Miller. I wondered if there was a “penalty” to letting them go. Not huge but 1.5M is 1.5M. Thanks!
I too am a lone wolfpack.
I am probably the biggest "get Batum" guy here
I agree with pretty much everything you said. Some people will think 13 is too much, but there are plently of less valuable players making that much money. It’s not bad value at all.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
I concur on Batum being "worth" the dollars, obviously
And frankly, the Wolves will HAVE to push across a contract offer that makes the Blazers blink (and their competitors as well). At 4yr 52M, the Blazers would have to add a 5th year, nearly making him a max guy AND paying him more than LA. That won’t happen.
I just hope Kahn is not blind to the opportunity that is here for the taking.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
I would love to get batum for $11/year
but I would be perfectly happy to give him $13 and get rid of Webster/AR/Beas/Miller/Darko. Moving Ridnour would really be a coup because there is no reason we should have 3 decently paid PGs on this roster. I think the one thing this FO really really needs to do is to start combing the DLeague for players like Tolliver. If we can get a couple cheap, hustle rebound/defend players to fill out our bench or perhaps a sharpshooter (i.e. Novak) it would really help rather than giving $3-7 million to everyone on the team.
To add on
I think we should be desperately trying to trade any of the following (in order of importance):
Ridnour, CLion, Darko, Beasley, Randolph, Wes, Webster(?), Miller
That still leaves us with enough pieces to run out a semi-competitive team. The key is you must either get back someone we want long term (i.e. Batum, Asik, Mayo) or get expiring/draft picks. Second round picks are ok as are role players who are cheap and have specific roles (i.e. Morrow)
Nobody wants any of those
and the teams who have the players you covet want to keep them. Pipe dream. It’s like every team blog does… let’s just get rid of the players we don’t like … we know that we can dump them elsewhere. Let’s just get the players we want … we know those other teams will deal or the players will be happy to play here. Oh, and the cheap role players asked for will soon become the next dead weight you want to rid the team of. After all, what are most of the Wolves you mentioned above but role-players?
by ogishkemuncie on Feb 13, 2012 9:43 AM CST up reply actions
Mayo has nearly been dealt 3 times in 2 years
I would say he’s available if you’re willing to pay a bit. Taking the long view (i.e. as a POBO) it’s probably not worth giving up anything because he’s an RFA after this. The rumors out of Portland have been that they’re committed to Wallace over Batum and considering his contract is up he may be available if we’re willing to give up a decent player (i.e. DWill) but once again RFA after this season so …. Asik is a pipe dream since he’s a key part (IMO) of Chicago being a contender.
Any time you are talking about a backup
I think it’s safe to assume they are gettable.
I don’t know what we have that Chicago would want, but Asik being the pipe dream I don’t agree with in a general sense
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:00 AM CST up reply actions
Noah's been hurt quite a bit these last couple of years
Having a cheap capable backup is huge for a team that wants to win it all.
Sure, but he's an RFA also, he won't be cheap for long
just saying. If we had something of value to them, we could probably get Aski. Is he going to be cheap or for draft picks? No. But if they could turn Asik into a starter I’d imagine they would do it
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
A secondary approach to getting rid of them
is to try and sell the ones we can as either capable backups: Ridnour, Miller, Webster, maybe Darko or Potential: CLion, Beasley, Randolph and target 1st or second year players who are 1. cheap 2. playing well in very limited minutes and see which ones regress to the mean and which ones hold some value: A few of these guys have been identified on this site mainly by VoodooMagic
1. Larry Sanders of the Bucks © has already regressed overall (.21 ws48, , -.031wp48) but has a 6.5 BLK% and a 100 DRtg (second on his team and 2 behind Bogut). Worth a shot as a backup defensive center that costs less than Darko…. that said we have Darko.
2. Elliot Williams of the Trailblazers (SG) has also regressed but (.071ws48, .034wp48) but sports a .517 eFG as a rookie and 3.8FTA/36 making only .5 of them. IMO If anything is correctable for a guard it’s free throw shooting. His rebounding numbers but assists could be a little better.
I’m sure if you kept digging you could find other people on cheap contracts at the end of their respective benches. Also Darko for a second round pick would be awesome and we could just grab a D-League guy if we need depth.
heh ( C ) creates a copyright symbol
Terrel Harris is another one. rookie SG in Miami, only 92 minutes but rebounding the heck out of the ball (for a SG) and shooting .522 eFG%. I don’t think Miami is the type of team to fall for it (or have the cap space) but I would try and offer wes + 2nd round pick for him.
Desperately trying to trade C-Lion
is a line of thinking that is going to come back to bite us in the ass.
I’m not opposed to trading him, but the urgency to move him at all cost is going to lead to a trade where we will lose in the long run
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah I don't see how he's ever going to live up to his second pick billing
I wrote this in another thread but he screams Emeka Okafor to me. A good player but not 2nd pick quality. Trade him while he has that shine.
For what though?
Again, if we’re trading him for Eric Gordon, sure.
The guy has produced in limited minutes. He’s basically been playing hop scotch with the “good player” metrics ( 15 PER .100 WS/48) all season. I think it’s been a commendable rookie season as he hasn’t really been put in any situation to succeed with this team and he is coming out alright. If the guy can get consistent playing time, he’s going to be able to score, and players that can score are always going to have inflated value….and on this team in particular we are going to need a player who can score….so in my book unless we come out of these moves with a guy who can score (i.e. if we some how move Williams for Batum, but also pick up Mayo) that’s fine….but if we’re trading him for basically excellent role guys like Batum and Gortat while not addressing the 2nd scorer issue on the team, I’m almost inclined to pass and just cause we’re going to need another offensive outlet on this team if we want to be serious and Williams has that ability.
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
One of the reasons I want Martel to play more
(besides less Johnson) is that he’s historically a good but not great 3pt shooter which gives Ricky more options. Our second unit has JJ as the main shot taker as well as Beasley (when playing well). I’m not convinced secondary scoring is really our problem.
If Martel would accept that he's basically a 'catch and shoot' guy,
he’d be quite valuable. Unfortunately, he loves to try to put the ball on the floor.
Definitely better than Johnson.
But he has the opposite problem of being too aggressive for his own good – which I’ll still take over Wes’ super passivity.
"trying to trade c-lion...
…will bite us in the ass"
Good work on the pun!
I personally think that tracking his value is very difficult
I would maintain that the #2 pick had for more value in the week leading up to the draft that DWill has had at any point following. Just the nature of draft picks and the blank check they provide.
I suspect his value remained constant from the time of the draft until the start of training camp. Then it took a hit when Adelman basically said he was unable to play SF right now. Unfortunately the league is awash with decent young PFs. Since training camp I suspect his value has been on a steady decline. Can’t play the 3, can’t hit the 3, fairly awkward going to the basket, difficulty playing D.
They question of the moment is: “Where does his value go from here?”
You could have said pretty the same thing about the #4 pick and Wes Johnson’s value on the same timeline. Most value before pick was made, value steadily dropping since then. Would we have gotten more trading him last summer than right now? I would think so, as he is proving last year was not just rookie transition struggles. I suspect Wes has lost so much ‘new player’ shine that he is viewed as having negative trade value due to his lack of game and contract that stretches beyond this summer. Is DWill heading down the same path, or is he a much better player just stuck behind an All-Star. I certainly hope it is the latter.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 13, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
PS: Awful typos. WHY IS THERE NO EDIT KEY?! BEEN SAYING THAT FOR YEARS!
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 13, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
I tend to agree with you
but the fact that we could have gotten Indy’s #10 pick 2 years ago for Flynn suggests that value doesn’t decline quite as fast as it does for those of us who watch 50+% of that players games.
this is all assuming Williams is as bad as Flynn and Johnson too
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
No, I'm not making that assumption
I’m just saying it is something that has to be game-planned for.
Are the Wolves pretty sure that Williams will not go down the FAIL path of Flynn/Wes. After all, they must have believed strongly in those two guys for a while too.
If they are not sure, then they have to do a risk analysis. What are the chances that we trade Williams and he blows up (sold low) vs. the chances that we hold onto him and his value plummets (sold too late).
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 13, 2012 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
It's a good point
So lemme ask you this
would you rather
A) Williams blows up but you sell him too low?
B) Williams doesn’t do anything and you sell him too late (Wes)?
admittedly those are two extremes, but the other options is basically:
C) He is a pretty solid, but doesn’t “blow up” player.
The reason I am asking the question based on the two extremes is that if he proves to be a pretty solid player (let’s say David West) he would still carry a reasonable amount of trade value, possibly even more than he has currently.
If you want to call me a rube for this take, fine. But with prospects I’d personally rather just let them bomb out then trade them and have them blow up. the Flynn example of how we could have gotten the 10th pick in the 2010 draft hurts when you consider we could have gotten Paul George (whom I love) but if we’re just talking rotation/average guys…..I don’t love it. If we trade Williams it should be for another younger/upside guy to build around, if that can’t happen I’d just as soon keep him and roll with what happens
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
I'll take A.
Because I don’t think he’s going to blow-up backing up Love. I think his value is still probably pretty high, but if he keeps having the same problems he is now, its going to start dropping.
Add in that I don’t think there is a place for him on this team, and if I can get a comparable talent at a more needed position, I’m all over it.
What's the comparable talent though?
In theory I don’t disagree, but some of the trades I hear I just shutter at the potential to get completely blown out of the water in terms of what could happen when Williams actually gets pt
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
Dunno.
I just don’t think Williams is ever going to be THAT good, so I want to trade him while his value is still up there.
well find me a deal
and then let’s talk.
There are a few I’m down with. Eric Gordon in particular is something i have a lot of interest in. Evan Turner would also be to my liking
Everyone is in a big hurry to trade him but no one gives any options….it’s a weird vibe with this guy. Trading him now feels like it will have mistake written all over it too me, cause the only trades that seem likely are low ball offers.
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
as a bonus a few of the rookies like Morris in Phoenix have come back to earth
so we may have a few more potential suitors Leuer is still killing it though.
For me 13/year is way too much
and after what I saw for the Love extension I don t think the ownership is willing to spend this kind of money for a guy that was never asked to a number 1 or 2 option for a playoff team…
The thing is though...
What other options do the Wolves possess to get a truly helpful player on board? Trade assets? D-Dub is their best bet at the moment but his value is muddled at the moment.
Because of the ticking clock on Love’s extension they can’t play the “draft and develop” game any further. That option is out the window. All moves going forward have to be made with surrounding Kevin and Ricky with the best-suited teammates to go to war with.
As for the #1/#2 option, I concur that Batum is not that guy. In Simmons’ parlance Batum “brings a lot to the table.” The Wolves would have 3 guys that heap stuff all over that table (Nic, Love, RR) A team constructed thusly WOULD be tough to reckon with. Plus, looking ahead, (yes, I’m going to believe it can happen), Batum is near-perfectly designed to guard Durant and if the Wolves are going to compete for WC banners and the like, the road will go through OKC and I’d love to have the best possible defender to deal with KD.
The Wolves can hedge on the scoring threat guy by using vet minimums and such to bring in score-first guys to augment the attack, ala what Portland did with Crawford.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
So Batum would be our third star?
Is he the third star at Portland now? No.
by ogishkemuncie on Feb 13, 2012 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
I think Batum is a solid target for us
but I agree with the hesitations some people have. The reason he is a solid target is the reason we probably have a great chance to land him, he’s still a little unproven. Sure is a Math Baller, putting up impressive metrics in his limited run, but he has yet to do it on a consistent basis playing 35 mpg. He’s going to want money and playing time and it would stand to reason that we are going to be one of few teams that are able to accomplish both considering our desperate lack of depth at the wing means that even if Batum is “only” and efficient 13/6 kinda guy he would be leagues better than the next option we have (assuming you don’t believe Williams will ever play 3)
However, a core of Rubio/Batum/Love/Pekavic is not bad at all: those are 4 different players with 4 different and complimentary skill sets, 2 of which will probably be in the top 5 of their positions by this time next year (Love already is maybe the best at his position) Batum would be a very good target and seems like a guy who you could safely give a lot of money too.
I think Mayo or Gordon (however Gordon would probably cost too much money in this scenario) would be the final pieces here. get that gunner 2 guard who can help take some ball handling pressure off Rubio, yet they are a little bigger than Ridnour and can at least not get posted up by Vinsanity for 20 pts.
Batum is a good target, proceed with caution, but he is a really good fit here
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
Ah but I said 35 ;)
but wouldn’t you also agree by looking at those stats that that season was pretty much his “worst (not that it was a bad season)” of his career? .126 WS/48 is much lower than the rest of his career and he only averaged 12 ppg, 14 pp36.
He screams excellent role player. Which we need and he will be a huge help and a great fit here….but I don’t disagree with a healthy skepticism of what he will actually bring.
The problem with Batum that I am realizing I have with him is that look at last season 31 mpgs: what does he do that is excellent? 12 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg? these are fairly pedestrian numbers. I get that they are raw numbers, but it’s okay to read into raw numbers a little bit: he scores moderately, is a fair rebounder and not much for assists….I’m sure the defense is pretty good and that is what helps the WS/48’s etc….but we are a pretty fair defensive team and are going to need some scoring from whatever players we start at the wing.
moderate points, excellent overall basketball play. If he’s the target we still need to address 2nd scorer
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
problem is that in order to beat other teams in FA
you have to overpay, I agree that the options are limited though….but if we get a player of Batum caliber the next move imo should be to trade D Williams for an athletic center good at D
Agree wholeheartedly on trading D-Dub
for something else that fits. Yes, a 4/5 that shoots over 50%, rebounds and can protect the rim would be invaluable to this team.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
if we get Batum
we can start Pek/Love together
Unless we can get an awesome 2 guard for Williams, you might as well just keep him in this scenario
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
You deserve much credit for doing your homework
and I like everything except the part about paying 13 million to a guy that has had multiple years to become an impact player and has not yet done so. Maybe it’s like you say and it has to do with Portland’s style or coaching preference but to me that seems like an awful lot of money to give an unproven player.
Not to put too fine a point
On the point I’m trying to make here (nor say stats are the be-all, end-all of player assessment) but I believe Danilo Gallinari is prolly the most likely comparable age/ability/contract-wise.
Consider these numbers: Danilo current PER is 20.0. Currently 5th ranked at SF in NBA . He was effectively signed to a 4yr/40M deal.
Now, Batum currently sports an 18.7 PER, good for 7th in the league at his position.
Also for your consideration, going forward, right now from today, I’d argue that Batum is the 3rd best SF to place on your team for the future behind only LBJ and KD. Yes, I’d put Batum ahead of Danilo due to his defensive versatility.
Now, Gallinari received his extension with no one bidding against the Nugs for his services. This is why Batum will need to receive the offer that I suggest- the competition for his services that will come at season’s end. The Wolves can win him if they set the right groundwork between now and free agency.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
Kahn is too dumb to realize the need
He prefers to add average players on cheap deals to round out his team. I pray that I’m wrong and big moves are coming, but I’m worried about the future of this team.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
Kahn doesn't understand what makes good players, or how games are won,
but he has tried to get Batum 3 times.
yet we still don't have him on the team
I don’t care what Kahn thinks about doing, I care what he does.
We’ll see what happens at the deadline and this off-season I guess. Love is gone in 3 years if he doesn’t make some drastic changes.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
You don't care what Kahn thinks about doing
yet you label him as someone who doesn’t understand what a good basketball player looks like?
Simitar has pointed out that Kahn has tried to get Batum on a few occasions…which means he clearly likes what Batum can bring, which means that Kahn probably has some semblance of player personnel ability. Maybe he just has an easier time of evaluating pro players vs college players: ridnour, barea, tolliver, sessions to an extent, webster to an extent (injuries have held this acquisition back), if you think about it both his decision to sign Pekavica (I realize he didn’t draft him, but he has always had the option of not bringing him over) and draft Rubio were essentially him looking at professional basketball players. Then you add his interests in Batum, Rudy Gay and David Lee (who yes, would have been a bad fit, but is still a quality pro player) maybe the guy is better at evaluating people who are already in the league.
I don’t know, maybe he’s not. But he indeed does have the same interest in Batum you have it appears
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
So maybe Batum indeed sucks
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
kahn loves him though
and he apparently doesn’t know player personnel
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
who the fuck cares
Kahn is a bad GM. that’s all you need to know.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
John Wall isn't all that sweet either
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:18 PM CST up reply actions
remind me
Why didn’t the Blazers extend his contract recently? His current coach doesn’t have faith in him as a starter. The team he is on is better than ours. But we want to give him Love-type money. I don’t understand. Is there something their braintrust knows that we do not know? Is the grass always greener looking at other team’s players and projecting?
Who says their coach doesn't have faith in him
He’s being blocked by Gerald Wallace, not because they don’t think he’s good enough to start.
Batum is gonna explode when he gets outta Portland…
For the loser now
Will be later to win
Here in the local papers
Nate and mgmt are often unhappy with his lack of aggression. Nic’s people have intimated that he feels disrespected after playing a more integral role last season but then come this year it’s back to the bench and waiting for an extension, which never came.
He should be starting. Sometimes he gets starter minutes and sometimes he doesn’t. Nate is quite finicky with Batum.
I thought it was QUITE telling after Batum had landed awkwardly on his ankle (the game before the 9 trey explosion) that he told the press that his first concern was that he would miss the Olympics with the French team. Very telling comment, imo. Not “I’ll miss a playoff run with my mates.” Frankly, while the fans here adore Nic I think he feels dissed by the kooky mgmt (or lack thereof) that run the Blazers. He is huge a get for a team if they pile it on for him.
Basically, if in time, our cap is rolled into Love, Rubio & Batum,…well…I would be quite pleased with that scenario.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
The reason is that his salary is so low now
that he has an extremely low cap hold going into next off-season. The Blazers would have extended him if they could have gotten him to accept a low-ball offer. They didn’t have in incentive to extend him at “market” rates during the season. They want to keep him.
matter of interpretation
one could also read into that that the Blazers would not be all that concerned if he left. Every team wants to keep their players for the ‘right’ price. You are still projecting. He’s a decent player, but he is being outplayed by Gerald Wallace, apparently. No doubt Wallace is good (but I don’t believe he is an all-star). Batum’s motivation may be suspect. He hasn’t shown he will dominate or, at the very least, be consistent, for the team he is on now. I don’t see why such a player should be given $13m/year.
by ogishkemuncie on Feb 13, 2012 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
is it honestly possible to have any basketball trade conversation without projecting at least a little?
just a very odd complaint you have there.
Also he's taking himself far too seriously
it’s trade talk. There is little chance anything actually happens, just have fun with it.
Mayo/Batum I do think would be the combo that gets us to where we want to go. they are both about as complimentary as it gets.
the only thing that would be better is if we can move C-Lion for Eric Gordon and outright sign Batum. Gordon/Mayo are the kinds of SG’s that would score 22 ppg with their eyes closed next to Rubio, Batum defensively would make the whole process complete
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
by VoodooMagic on Feb 13, 2012 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think I'd go to $13m per year,
but I’d do a $40m/4 year for sure. You say he hasn’t been consistent, but his worst year (last year) was a 0.144 WP/48. That’s still pretty good. He’s at 0.241 WP/48 right now, leading the Blazers (it would be 3rd best on the Wolves, behind Love and Pek).
He’s young and he’s really good, but he doesn’t play like Kobe or Jordan. That is, the Blazers reportedly want him to be more aggressive, where he has been a relatively low-usage player. If they don’t value him highly enough, we need to pounce on their mistake in RFA after the season.
by Madison Dan on Feb 13, 2012 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
I hope they don't value him enough
but I wouldn’t put it past Paul Allen to try and sign a guy on the cheap who he knows is a RFA.
What is he good at?
per 36 last few years has basically been 14/5/1.5
I mean…he’d be the best 3 on our team, true. but that doesn’t nessecarily mean he is aweosme either….IDK it doesn’t appear like he is overly excellent at anything except maybe defense which there is no excellent metric for except Drtg, which ironically until this year his Drtg has been over 110, which is bad
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
For one thing,
he scores really efficiently. I can overestimate how important I think that is. Based on the guys you single out, you don’t seem to agree.
Well. Not necessarily.
I think it’s cute how little you value my basketball acumen
I think scoring efficiently is important, but yes I would take a slight hit on efficiency if the guy can do it in a high quantity.
There are limits to how low efficiency I’m willing to go for a certain player, for as much as I want Michael Beasley to be awesome, I don’t currently think he is the right player for us if he continues to play like he has.
This team desperately needs a guy who can get his own offense and it appears that even with Batum this will still be a problem. I think the term “volume” scorer has a much more negative connotation than it should have. You need guys that play good basketball, but you can only pass the ball around the perimeter for so long. If the play isn’t there, if you’re playing a good coach with a good defense, sometimes you need a guy to be able to make both his own offense and offense for others. Rubio can make offense for others, but often struggles to make his own offense which is why I still believe we need that kind of player.
I’d take Batum, but I still think you have to pair that acquisition with either Eric Gordon or OJ Mayo, you’re gonna need a 2 that can accomplish that goal, and both those two have been very good at playing within themselves and only putting volume mode on when the team needs it.
the other option I would consider, but would probably have to wait till the offseason is: see how contractually hungover the Grizzlies are and if they fail to make the playoffs with their high-salary team. Rudy Gay I think would almost be the best SF for this team, he can get his own shot, he can sometimes play some beast defense, he’s not a ball hog and he is monsterously athletic. If the Grizz are a little beat down by the big contracts they have on lock (Gasol/Randolph/Allen/Conely all have big deals as well) Gay might be available for a salary dump and some picks, or moving Williams to a third party etc.
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
I didn't say anything about your basketball acumen (it's just the Hello Kitty that's cute),
but my impression is that you don’t look at TS% first, whereas I pretty much do. I think the problem with your volume scorer theory, as it pertains to the Wolves, is that the very high usage players who are also efficient scorers are unobtainable superstars. If I’m trading off a feature, I’ll go down the usage list before I’ll go down the efficiency list. About the worst thing that a team can have is a high usage, low efficiency player.
relatively obtainable guys that fit my theory
Eric Gordon
OJ Mayo
Rudy Gay
Danny Granger
Monta Ellis
I think there are a few guys off the radar to keep an eye on as well (Elliot Williams is a guy buried on POR bench who I loved in college for example). I don’t think this player has to be a top 10 guy either, but with the make up of our team I think we’re going to want to get a guy that can get his own shot. The night and day difference will be almost as striking as adding an actual PG to the team.
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
Here is a comparison of these guys to Batum. I used Gordon’s numbers from last year because he’s been hurt this year. Everything else is from this year. Does anything in here change your mind?
Change my mind about what?
What is it you think I think?
I have nothing but endorsed acquiring Batum if that’s what the Wolves choose to do
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
I get some mixed messages from you.
My read of this interaction is that you’d settle for Batum, but that the other guys are what the team really needs. I disagree with that.
Okay
well for one I am an idiot who can’t really write so I apologize for that.
Out of the list of players I named I think Gordon and Gay are more what we need if we only have one more player we can get (assuming salary etc)
I would not take Mayo/Ellis/Granger over Batum unless it was like a cap dump for Granger (which even then I might not)
I would however stress the importance of dualy acquiring an OJ Mayo or maybe even an Evan Turner to compliment Batum if Batum is the player we choose to target as we are still going to need a main perimeter scoring threat assuming Batum’s scoring stays pretty consistent with his per 36’s
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
Thanks for clarifying
For me, Mayo, Gay, and Granger aren’t efficient enough. Ellis might need the ball more than I’d like (when playing next to Rubio), so he gets knocked down a peg. But you might be right that we need someone like him, I don’t know. Gordon would be fine, but he’ll get overpaid and he’s hurt a lot. Batum looks good all around to me. I’m not worried about the low usage, we just need another guy who can convert.
Jim Pete said it best
if someone isn’t going to step up and make shots, we have to acquire someone who can
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
in all fairness
maybe I do just overvalue scoring. Which could be my downfall, but we got three pretty efficient players in our starting lineup and a solid corp of bench players when given bench roles like Ridnour, Webster, Barea etc, and we are actually a pretty fair defensive team.
My opinion is we need another guy who can score the ball and that is personally the way I would go with this roster and also forms my preference for not wanting to trade Williams unless it’s to acquire a guy who can score because I think he has the ability to score.
I wouldn’t pass up Batum though if that is a realistic option
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
His per 36 this year
are not actually that bad.
but when he was actually given close to 36 mpg last year (32 I believe it was) he had a pretty disappointing 12 ppg which remains pretty consistent with the healthy skepticism that he might just be an excellent role player and not really a 3rd star type guy. which doesn’t even mean you shouldn’t acquire him it just means he’s a piece but not the final one
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
Love's usage is up to 27.4% this year
and his eFG has gone from .513 to .501… not really sure we need a volume guy that bad.
Perimeter scoring
to balance out the equation
I am a firm believer that merely OJ Mayo might turn Love into the single most efficient player in the NBA. The pressure to create from the perimeter when there isn’t a play there is (from my perspective) the only offensive weakness in Love’s game, but yet he tries to do it…..because really no one else can. You get some one else to do that, defenses collpases on him=more open shots for Love.
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
In a shrewd way
I do agree with what Portland did here as a pure-cap related move. Still can’t deny they stung Nic a bit by not pre-empting his free agency and paying him to stay.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
My guess is Batum will get about $10.6 million per...
I went back the previous 3 season to find somewhat comprable FA wing signings. My criteria was a little loose, but basically if the guy was in his 20’s, a wing, signed a multi-year deal, and contributed about as many wins (according to win shares) as Batum is projected to in his “contract” year, he was in the pool. The players I looked at include:
Arron Afflalo
Thad Young
Danilo Gallinari
Rudy Gay
Joe Johnson
Wes Matthews
Trevor Ariza
Ben Gordon
Marvin Williams
The mix is a little curious and the bigger deals of the “go to” guys maybe skew things a little, but probably not, particularly since the Wolves might treat Batum as an almost “go to” guy if they chose to pursue him. The player who had the lowest win share total his contract year was Marvin Williams (5.7) and the highest was Joe Johnson (8.4). The average contract-year WS of the group was 6.3. I didn’t use WS/48 because I don’t think NBA teams pay contracts by efficiency, necessarily. I also didn’t know how best to handle career vs. contract year WS, but I suspect contract year numbers matter a lot to teams, maybe a little too much.
Anyway, my abacus says NBA teams spent $1,547,571.79 per contract year WS on my sample group over this 3-year period.
I projected Batum’s contract-year WS to be about 6.9. I did this by multiplying his ws/48 by his projected minutes (his mpg * games remaining), dividing by 48, and adding the WS he’s already accumulated (and it’s worth mentioning here Batum’s ws/48 would be the highest in the group). Therefore, multiplying Batum’s projected WS by the going rate…about $10-11 million per.
But, who knows?
Doing some similar dirty work on other potential FA wings:
Louis Williams: $11,641,608.77 per
Eric Gordon (based off 2010/11): $8,202,130.47 per
OJ Mayo: $5,974,207.44 per
Landry Fields: $7,210,704.40 per
Rudy Fernandez: $4,373,792.52 per
Chase Budinger: $7,600,569.98 per
My guess is Williams, Fields, and Budinger will get less than that; Gordon and Mayo more.
Interesting analysis
If I’m off by 2 million/year, myself and David Kahn would be happy. Oh, and CHers as well.
;-)
I too am a lone wolfpack.
From all those wings ...
Eric Gordon is not-obtainable.
Louis Williams is undersized SG and has one more year on his contract.
Budinger will be extended in Houston.
Fields is good target but NY has no reason not to extend him.
Rudy is OK too, and maybe available if Denver sign W.Chandler.
OJ Mayo – no thanks.
I included those mainly for comparisons...
I don’t care much to speculate what the Wolves might do or how things might play out. I would say no thanks to Gordon and Mayo, though. Louis Williams has a player option and if he keeps playing like this he’ll use it. Budinger and Fields are both UFA’s. Who knows?
The thing I come away with is it’s really too bad the Wolves have failed to find anything reasonable at all on the wing, despite all their draft choices and trades. They’re going to have to pay because of it.
OJ Mayo is a good player
just saying. He has historically gotten a bad rap that in seasons past might be fair, but he’s having a very good season
I don't know what an art house is, I don't know what goes on in an art house, I have never been in an art house, and I can't imagine it's any place I ever want to be.
About Morrow, you are right ...
… when Orlando-Nets Howard trade come to the discussion, we could jump in and offer 1st rounder and Wes, Beasley, or Randolph to try to get him (or two of those guys).
He is one of the best shooter in league (and we really, really need shooters, and SGs), on reasonable contract. Nets will be short with resources to get Dwight (Lopes, Brooks, Okur’s expiring, some picks). Although they will want to keep him (shooter is perfect to add to D-Will/Howard combo), maybe they will be forced to convert him to resources to pay off Orlando.
About Batum – I really like the guy but he is not worth close to 13M/per. And it is easy to calculate that we couldn’t afford him on this kind of contract (4th season when RR and D-Will rookie contract expired, Love still need to be here and you are paying Batum something like 13-15M – depending how contract is structured).
Instead of overpaying in free agency we need to focus on trades, we still have enough resources (although now is the right moment – Beasley and Randolph still have some value, maybe even Webster if he improve in next several weeks; also we don’t need any of Utah’s and Memphis’s picks – we have enough of young guys).
For example, although Pek is playing really well, it is clear we couldn’t pair him with Love – no paint protector, both are high utilization player. Also Pek doesn’t really fit into style of play with Rubio, ball sharing, passing (he is low-post iso player – very efficient at this).
Ideal target for us (except Morrow) are for example:
- Marion (his contract is for 2 more years after this one, at 8-9M/per; he is veteran proven to be efficient on high-pace game; if Dallas want to clear space in salary cap to target Howard+D-Will on the summer they need to get rid of him – something like Beasley for Marion will be ideal)
- Amare (20M/per for 3 more years – we could afford him but barely and only for the next 3.5 years; he would be much better complement to Love than Pek – at least he could block a little, he doesn’t require iso but operate in the flow of the game; the only way to get him is if he doesn’t click with Lin when he is back and NY want to convert star player for depth – although it is probably better for them to get rid of Melo (kinda opposite vs. what they did last year); something like Pek/Barea + pick and Beasley/Randolph converted into rotation players from Denver or Portland for Amare and if we offer more Fields).
- W.Chandler (Batum is probably better than him, but in his case it is more like 8M/per not 13M/per). If Denver don’t want to pay him big (and they just extend Galo on SF for 42M/4) maybe Utah’s 1st and Beasley could be converted into him. Denver has Afflalo, Galo, Rudy, Brewer and W.Chandler on the hold. Afflalo and Galo are starters, Brewer is low-cost 4th wing. They couldn’t afford both Rudy and Chandler long-term (as a 3rd wing).
- Portland need to extend Batum, Camby, Felton, Craford on the summer, not sure they could afford both Wallace and Batum. I am not fan of G.Wallace at all. Getting Batum in trade is maybe more reasonable than overpaying in free agency.
I forgot Courtney Lee ...
Houston couldn’t afford both him (out of rookie contract on the summer) and K.Martin. And he is 26 (ideal years).
They will probably sign&trade him during summer (or trade Martin).
I think Amare is definitely on the downslide
He never could play much D, now his game seems to be falling apart along with his back. With that massive and non-insurable contract, no chance Taylor signs off on it.
I’d like Chandler or Batum. Both would be nice adds. I think Wallace is going to start falling off a cliff. He has a lot of hard miles on that body, having playing too much PF.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 13, 2012 12:13 AM CST up reply actions
I'm a total Blazer homer and Batum is one of my favorites
At $13 million per year, I’d be happy to see him go. That’s the kind of contract that ruins teams for years.
by BlazerTag on Feb 12, 2012 11:36 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Would you not concur though
That he is simply matched by the Blazers at say 10 million/year?
I too am a lone wolfpack.
I don't think the Blazers match at 10 million
At least, I hope not.
He’s worth more to the Wolves than he is to the Blazers. Having LaMarcus/Batum/Matthews as your top three players isn’t nearly as sexy as having Rubio/Love/Batum as your top three.
I’m a total Blazer homer and even I know building a team around Rubio with Adelman as the coach is much better than anything the Blazers will be able to cobble together in the long-term future.
Don’t mortgage that long-term future by forking over too much dough for mediocre players.
Hey BT.. appreciate your thoughts....
What do you think Batum is WORTH to the Blazers and Wolves respectively.. (assuming we don’t want to over-pay as well).
I think Batum can be an important piece for a playoff team but,
what make you think that after they gave Love 4yrs/62 mln they will offer for Nick Batum 4 years contract worth 52 mlns?? There is just no way the Wolves put this kind of offer on the table…I see Taylor trying to be on the cheap lately,is true that the more you win the more money your team makes,but as the Blazer fan said 13 mln per year to Batum can really derail this team…Is it so long time ago that these very fat contracts were handed to guys like Jaric,Hassell and Mike James? Looks like everybody forgot about it…
+1
It wasn’t long after those signings that they were perceived as albatrosses around the neck of the team (and one of the big indictments of management). Most every NBA team has or had some similar signings. With the new CBA they are desperately trying to avoid shooting themselves in the foot again so soon. I am equally sure it is only a matter of time before many teams will sign stupid contracts with players, both of star level or below.
by ogishkemuncie on Feb 13, 2012 9:58 AM CST up reply actions
I would humbly disagree
as to this contract being an albatross. It is one thing to give a contract of this nature to a player in the 27-30 yo range. Batum is 23. I feel very comfy with the type of player Batum will be over ages 24-27. Very.
Furthermore, with the new CBA, Taylor has to spend money on his team. There is a higher minimum team salary floor now so he will be paying in the vicinity of the cap each and every season anyway as an NBA owner by contractual mandate with the union.
Thus, I find it slightly cynical to suggest that the Wolves will never pay so and so such big money because they already gave that money to Kevin. They still have the rest of the roster to fill out. , and some others, think it is best to spend your dollars on actual talent and not shelling out mediocre contracts to mediocre players (darko, Luke) simply to meet the cap minimum.
It’s like Homer Jay instructed us all: first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women.
Get the players, get the wins, get the titles. If the team starts winning, Target Center is filled up, money flows, players play here for less, rising tide lifts Timberwolf boats.
In the end, we want the women.
:-)
I too am a lone wolfpack.
FYI : The blazer offer was around 6m$/y
So I’m pretty sure they won’t mach a 10m$ offer. (You may even get him at 9 )
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