Jonny, Wes and Sasha
Last season Jonny Flynn posted what I thought to be the worst season in franchise history. It was truly horrific. This year his Syracuse partner in crime is making a run at the crown.
We’ll take a look at his chances below the fold.
First of all, let’s place Flynn’s 10-11 season into the proper context. For the sake of keeping things as orderly as possible, let’s break down "worst season" as being defined by a few key categories: wp48, ts%, blk+stl48, to48, and fta/fga48. Here is how last season’s Flynn stacked up (all stats taken from the excellent NBA Geek's player/team comp page):
WP48: -.079
TS%: 44.4
Reb48: 3.7
Blk/stl48: 1.8
TO48: 5.5
FTA/FGA48: .138
Here is the league average at the point:
WP48: .099
TS%: 53.5
Reb48: 4.8
Blk/stl48: 2.1
TO48: 3.4
FTA/FGA48: .274
In other words, Flynn did nothing much besides shoot like crap and turn it over. It was just amazing to watch in real time. Jonny Flynn would have a hard time standing out in Howard-Pulley. Even I’m amazed (and was wrong) about how bad he turned out to be. I never thought something like that was possible.
Anywho...
This year Wes Johnson is putting up the following line:
WP48: -.049
TS%: 42.2
Reb48: 6.1
Blk/stl48: 2
TO48: 2.8
FTA/FGA48: .092 (!!!)
Here is the average SF:
WP48: .099
TS%: 53.6
Reb48: 7.2
Blk/stl48: 2.3
TO48: 2.4
FTA/FGA48: .277
If we look at the percentage difference between Flynn and Johnson’s line and the league average, we come up with the following:
Jonny:
WP48: -180%
TS%: -17%
Reb: -22.9%
Blk/stl48: -14.2%
TO48: +61.7% (+ here is bad)
FTA/FGA48: -49.6%
Wes:
WP48: -149%
TS%: -21.3%
Reb: -15.2
Blk/stl48: -13%
TO48: +16.6% (again, positives here are bad)
FTA/FGA48: -66.7%
Who takes the suck cake?
WP48: Jonny!
TS%: Wes!
Reb: Jonny!
Blk/stl48: Jonny! (they both do very little off the ball)
TO48: Jonny!
FTA/FGA48: Wes!
Folks, this is close. Wes’s saving grace is that he doesn’t do much of anything on the court, to include turning the ball over. He’s just sort of there and when he does manage to do something, he does it horribly.
Flynn...well, he had the ball in his hands a lot more than Wes does.
Let’s take a quick look at a few other metrics to see if our general thoughts about Flynn and Johnson are in line with some other ways of looking at players.
This year Wes has the worst Simple Rating (82 Games) on the Wolves, with a -9.8. Wes has a -15.6 PER differential at the 2 (16% of team minutes) and a -4.1 at the 3 (28% of team minutes).
Last year Jonny had a -8.2 Simple Rating with a -10.7 PER at the point (24% of team minutes).
One of the things that I think needs to be entered into this conversation is the question of player expectation. It’s one thing for a player to post awful numbers if he is expected to be something of a focal point of the offense and he has the ball in his hands a ton. It’s quite another for someone to post awful numbers if he is expected to be someone who hits open 3s, rebounds, and defends. Which awful production is more detrimental to the team?
With the addition of Ricky Rubio we can attempt an answer with the importance of Jonny Flynn. This year Ricky Rubio has a Simple Rating of 7.1 and a +2.2 PER differential at the point with roughly 25% of the team’s minutes (take this with a grain of salt; 82 Games just assigns a variable based on 5 man lineups). He has the following line:
WP48: .198
TS%: 49.5
Reb48: 6.1 (!!!)
Blk/stl48: 3.6 (!!!)
TO48: 4.5
FTA/FGA48: .403 (!!!)
Here is how he relates to the league average at the position:
WP48: +100%
TS%: -7.4%
Blk/stl48: +71.4%
TO48: +32.3%
FTA/FGA48: +47%
Basically, Rubio is playing like an above average player and his minutes at the point have helped propel the Wolves to a better record. We can probably suss it out a bit more in another post, but I think we have enough to say that replacing bad point guard minutes with good ones is a fairly significant thing. Surprise, right? (%)
What happens when bad but bland Wes minutes are replaced by similar production? This is where the powers of free internet database access start to suffer. We have a read on basic on/off stats but this only tells us about what the team does with Wes off the court.
This season, the Wolves are a much better squad with Wes Johnson on the bench. However, we really don’t know a whole lot about the individuals who fill those minutes. Right now we can only deal in broad guesses about how replacing crap minutes with awesome ones affects the overall effectiveness of the team.
2010/11 Wolves:
Love: .342 WP48
Non-Love: .148 WP48
Flynn: -.079 WP48
Johnson: .018 WP48
2011/12 Wolves:
Love: .269 WP48
Non-Love: .641 WP48
Non-Love/Rubes/Pek: .153
Johnson: -.049
Let’s use vjl110’s PA100 score.
2010/11 Wolves
Love: 3.83 PA100
Non-Love: -36.72
Flynn: -4.37
Johnson: -4.06
2011/12 Wolves
Love: 6.96
Non-Love:-25.79
Non-Love/Rubes/Pek: -31.64
Johnson: -7.5
How much did Wes and Jonny contribute to the non-Love/non-Love/Rubes/Pek part of the equation?
Jonny was -53.37% of the non-Love WP48 production in 2010/11 compared to Johnson’s 12.16% He was 11.9% of the negative PA100 production compared to Johnson’s 11.1%.
In 2011/12, Wes accounts for -32% of the non-Love/Pek/Rubes WP48 production. He also accounts for 23.7% of the team’s negative non-Love/Pek/Rubes PA100 production (i.e. over ⅕ of the action). The term "active anchor" comes to mind when looking at Wes’s body of work this season.
Before we move on, does the Syracuse Duo have any competition? Throwing aside the expansion years, and looking at players with more than 500 minutes, there is a single man who rises near the top: Sasha Pavlovic.
WP48: -.124
TS%: 42.2
Reb48: 6.4
Blk/stl48: 3.2
TO48: 2.9
FTA/FGA48: .085
Here’s the average SF production for the 09/10 season:
WP48: .099
TS%: 54.7
Reb48: 7.5
Blk/stl48: 3.4
TO48: 2.4
FTA/FGA48: .303
Here is the percentage difference between Sasha and the average SF production:
WP48: -225.2%
TS%: -22.8%
Reb48: -14.6%
Blk/stl48: -5.8%
TO48: +20.8%
FTA/FGA48: -71.9%
How does this stack up with Jonny and Wes?
WP48: Sasha!
TS%: Sasha!
Reb48: Jonny!
Blk/stl48: Jonny!
TO48: Jonny!
FTA/FGA48: Sasha! (Which is just amazing considering Wes’s free throw shooting)
Let’s give each category a ranking, with 1 being the worst and 3 being the best. Adding up all the categories, the player with the lowest score is the worst relative to his position.
In this case, Jonny and Sasha are tied for the worst with a combined rank score of 11. Wes is 3rd with 14. Much like the rest of his game, Wes doesn’t really stand out one way or the other in any single category; he is simply a consistently bad performer across the board, ending up with four 2nd place finishes in 6 categories.
OK, let’s start wrapping this up. Looking over all of the information and thinking about what it was like to watch each of these guys play, I think the question of "who is the worst?" is a matter of the Philosophy of Suck. Do you like sins of commission or omission? Is the "worst" an actively bad performer on a terrible team or a inactively bad performer on what could be a good squad? What about the dose amount of awfulness?
Sasha Pavlovic played 877 minutes of terrible basketball in 2009/10. Jonny Flynn played 983 minutes on his way out the door. Wes Johnson is on pace for 1,465 minutes this year. Jonny Flynn’s last start in a Wolves uniform came on Feb 14, 2011. He started 8 games that season. Sasha Pavlovic never saw a start in Minny white. Wes Johnson has started 29 of the team’s 30 games this year. He is the largest contributor to the team’s league-worst standing at the SF position. A very good case could be made that he puts the Wolves on a 4-5 disadvantage every time he takes the court (i.e. his chunk of negative production is roughly equal to that of a single player, sometimes more).
My answer to the question of "who is the worst" is more of a commentary on my general basketball philosophy than it is any bare-bones number comparison. Sasha and Jonny put up some terrible numbers in their claim to the worst single season in Wolves history but I think Wes Johnson is well on his way to claim that honor for himself.
Why? I think we often focus too much on sins of commission. I think Wes’s large share of 2nd place craptacular finishes in our 6 categories speaks to the overall passive nature of his game. I think nearly 3,000 minutes of awful basketball is more than enough evidence to stop giving him so much playing time. I think his performance in Simple Rating and vj's PA100 along with his relationship to the non-Love/Pek/Ricky production on the team gives him enough statistical oomph to compete for the crown.
Wes Johnson is being paid to defer to Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, and (now) Nikola Pekovic on offense while playing good defense, rebounding, hitting 3s when they’re kicked out to him, and running the court. That’s his role. It is really hard to put up enormous suck numbers when your role is small and delegated to the corners of the action. Yet, there he is. His role is small and his impact is enormous. Just look at how the team clicks when he approximates average production for 6-8 minutes (see last night’s game in Houston, for example). That’s why I think he’s in the process of putting up the worst single season in Wolves history. If he is replaced with anything approaching to average production at the SF, this team will take off.
I’m honestly shocked that Wes is having this bad of a season. After seeing Jonny Flynn do what he did last season I thought he had set the gold standard for awfulness in the history of the franchise. This is an amazing thing considering the history of the Wolves. Wes Johnson is in that Sasha/Flynn conversation. If he continues to start, and if he continues to have such a large chunk of the team’s negative production while performing well below the level of his positional peers, I think he takes the cake.
What say you? Are the numbers there to put him in this philosophical conversation?
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Here's a positive for Wes
A good SG next to Wes will make him suck less.
Rubios - "Clinically PROVEN to Help Reduce Suckiness"
I don't know
He’s been able to increase his suckiness this year next to two additional better players (Rubio and Pek). I want to believe that would be the case because I think they’re going to continue to feed him minutes, but I don’t see anything that would suggest he’ll play better with better players around him when he’s gone the other way this year compared to last.
My preference is for Wes to play in the future moon colony league
but if we are stuck with Wes at SF a good SG can’t make him suckier…there has to be a bottom.
Rubios - "Clinically PROVEN to Help Reduce Suckiness"
by PoohRubio on Feb 18, 2012 3:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The moon-based GBA!
As far as Wes being worse, there are still ways in which he could fall. Despite last night’s game, his last 10 have seen drop offs in reb, stls, 3p%, ft%, and tos:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/clubhouse.html
His shooting is “up” in that span to .410.
Based entirely on the eye test...
…I’ve noticed he’s been marginally more assertive in the past handful of games. Taking shots more assertively (although still not making them) which has led to more intense defensive effort. If — and this is a huge if — he can regain confidence in his shot, perhaps he will turn it around.
Maybe RA hasn’t benched him yet because if he does so, any shred of confidence he’s clinging to will disappear forever. Tough to have a player with such a fragile psyche but that seems to be our Wes
by Timberwolf in LA on Feb 18, 2012 3:53 PM CST reply actions
It's the one mystery with Adelman
He has gotten so much right, I am willing to give him slack on this, but I really can’t figure out why Wes is still starting. I can’t see how the team would be worse starting Derrick Williams or Martell (though he has been basically horrible so far). It is a sad state of affairs when you look longingly at guys like Alonzo Gee and Donte Green…
by Jason in the Nati on Feb 18, 2012 3:55 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
all of these crazy parts - starting Derrick as the 3 guard might not be the answer
a short PG at the starting 2 guard. a PF (DW) starting at the 3 slot. a non-shot blocking PF and C. how much wackiness do you want on the starting 5.
only 1 gimmick (e.g. small SG) at a time please.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
I think Adelman is trading some semblance of defence for offence with all the Wes starting/playing time
Have you watched Derrick Williams lately? He and Beasley couldn’t defend my rocker-recliner…in a double team!! They are terrible. TURRRRRRRIBLE even!! Wes was on KMart last night for most of his minutes. KMart had 16 on 4-11 shooting. He got some points and did hit a few 3s, but he did NOT get anything he wanted, which (as Adelman pointed out earlier this year) was the case last year.
Wes has obviously been working on his shot and aggressiveness. His shot actually has had a bit of arc and proper rotation the last few games, as opposed to the knuckleball on a rope he has been clanging off the rim. He’s also been actually dribbling the basketball!! I was shocked yesterday to see him take (I believe it was KMart) to the…well… the lane off the dribble. Holy crap. He actually crossed him over. I almost had to rewind it to make sure I saw it correctly.
Obviously it would be great if he were to improve, and make no mistake he does need to improve, but considering our production from Love and Pek, I’ll take a guy who can annoy the shit out of the other teams decent wing without needing the ball a ton on offence. That’s basically the exact opposite of Beasley.
I’m still optimistic about Wes. I know I’m in the minority. The dude has shown flashes (albeit, only flashes). I guess it comes down to the fact that I trust that Adelman knows what he is doing.
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
by nodnarb on Feb 18, 2012 7:17 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I guess that would be...
now?
Considering the context I thought it was obvious. Apologies if that was confusing.
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
I'm torn
On the one hand, much of what I know about the game I’ve learned from reading your analyses here at CH. On the other hand, Adelman seems to have an incredible track record of getting good use out of other people’s rejects.
Yes, after he “fixes” Wes I expect him to turn Wellington into a bigger Barea, and then he’ll cure Randolph, and then….
Yo ho ho and a FirstRow stream!
As much as people want to blame Rambis for how Wes has played,
Wes has put up worse numbers in almost every metric this year. His defensive and total rebounding are up a but everything else is worse. I don’t know how the pro-Wes crowd works this into the Adelman reclamation theory.
The bottom line is that Wes can’t be a player unless he hits his shots at a much higher rate than we’ve seen. It sure doesn’t look like he ought to be this bad of a shooter, but the percentages are what they are.
by Madison Dan on Feb 18, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Pro-Wes crowd
I wasn’t sure if he had one, but I checked Facebook and he has 554 likes.
Rubios - "Clinically PROVEN to Help Reduce Suckiness"
Kahn has 553 accounts?
(I assume one belongs to his mother)
by zebano on Feb 19, 2012 3:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
thx for the analysis...
no disagreement that Wes is eating it on the offensive end.
D stats are difficult in capturing the big picture.
defensive rebounding… Wes is typically covering the #1 opposing offensive threat, which oftentimes leaves him out of position for a D rebound. plus, with Pek & Love & Rubio gobbling them up down there… someone has to run out on the break.
steals… they’re misleading. a high attempt at steals also means a lot missed steals – which leads to players being out of position. and to steal a hockey term, a power play is put into effect. Wes is often holding the bag o’ crap when Ricky gambles and misses.
help D… Love & Pek aren’t known as shot blockers. it affects the whole team dynamic. if Wes can’t expect Love & Pek to help challenge some of the time, Wes ends up needing to sag more often than not. so Wes gets a jumper in his eye. or if he sticks to a defender too close, it looks ugly when he gets burned bc the 2 stumps are there to D rebound (but not challenge the shot).
his physical dimensions and athleticism cannot be overlooked. it doesn’t matter how much hustle or strength or speed JJ shows out there, it’s not reasonable o expect JJ to cover forwards or centers. for emphasis, a 65 year old Garnett will be able to post up a healthy Spud Webb any day of the week. my point is that sometimes Wes’ poor defense is better than other players’ good D just bc of his physical presence.
not having another quality defensive wing playing at the same time when Wes is on the floor puts even more pressure on Wes. granted, it’s not feasible to put another defensive minded wing simultaneously with Wes bc the point production on the other end would be severely affected. when all Wes can depend on this team is Darko’s shot blocking ability (and some D rebounds from the stumps & a gambling unicorn)… that’s a sad state of affairs on the defensive end.
the NBA can be incredibly subjective at times. refs are more likely to call fouls on rookies and slow white guys (whether or not it was a foul in reality). Wes can only build defensive cred if he’s out there getting experience.
plus, when the haters are blaming a guy that averages 22.2 MPG (9% of the available 240 minutes w/o OT) for all the woes of the team… that’s just rough.
plus, he needs to be judged for what he’s done this year with this coach. last year, everyone looked like crap on a 15 win team. 15 wins… damn, no one deserves any accolades (including Love) after producing only 15 wins. that team – that system sucked.
Yes, Wes is craptacular on offense, but he is one of the key components for the defense… and there are limited options currently on the team.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 4:13 PM CST reply actions 6 recs
Well said
I think his defense, even if it’s not producing counting numbers (blocks, steals, rebounds) has been solid most of the year. Maybe he’s not always in the right position, but when you’re as long and athletic as Wes, it’s hard NOT to be an above average defender
by Timberwolf in LA on Feb 18, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
plus, when the haters are blaming a guy that averages 22.2 MPG (9% of the available 240 minutes w/o OT) for all the woes of the team… that’s just rough.
I think people really underestimate how much bad players hurt their team. Across the NBA, many teams are hurt every bit as much by their dregs as they are helped by their stars. Based on PA100, having Wes play his 20 minutes per, rather than having an average player occupy those minutes has cost us over 90 points this season. Most teams don’t have a single player who has added 90 points to their team. That is more points than the Lakers have earned by having Pau instead of an average player, and more than the Pistons have earned by having Monroe instead of an average player. Wes in his limited minutes has hurt the Wolves more than Paul Millsap has helped the Jazz. Anti-stars hurt just as much as stars help.
Note… PA100 is an offense only metric, which gets to your other point. Defense is tough to measure and I agree with all of the points you raise on that issue… That said, do you really think Wes is that special on defense? I haven’t seen it. He looks to be at least average, which is why I think he isn’t nearly as bad a player as Flynn was, but he would need to be pretty amazing to put a dent in his negative offensive contribution.
by vjl110 on Feb 18, 2012 4:42 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
agreed
- i do think that one player can really hurt a team. I was hoping the numbers would have helped me, but even my own stats don’t look good. in a close game, 9% is huge. plus, by some of the O stats out there, he definitely has a negative impact on the O end.
- I don’t think Wes is that special is on D (yet). but he looks like one of the few options available. plus, as a 2nd year player, he needs to be out there to get the experience. so this leads to the next discussion… should Martell take his minutes? I’ll say he already has since Wes is only getting 22.2 MPG.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 4:51 PM CST up reply actions
Martell is still coming back from injury and is slowly getting back into shape
If Martell is outplaying Wes after he gets back into shape, I’m sure he’ll start getting his minutes.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 18, 2012 4:56 PM CST up reply actions
I don’t think the solution to filling Wes’ minutes is on the roster. I was hopeful for Martel, but that just isn’t working. Wes may have cost us 90 points below the average player… but the difference between him and the other options on the roster isn’t nearly that big.
by vjl110 on Feb 18, 2012 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
my only comeback is that D is 50% of the game
all of the O stats clearly show that Wes is sucking hind tit. but that’s only half the picture.
defensive metrics are faulty. and Wes is doing a decent job on the D end.
so if someone says Wes sucks, I’ll say that’s only a half-truth.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:08 PM CST up reply actions
Great post on Wes' defensive impact.
You hit on a lot of the little nuances that most people don’t notice.
by DukePettyjohn on Feb 18, 2012 5:19 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I really like those posts
Very detailed.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 18, 2012 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
I definitely agree with you to a point...
but with the caveat that individual contributions to offense seem more important than defense. There is some evidence the defense is largely determined by coach/scheme rather than the players making-up the roster. As a Bulls fan, I bet this rings at least partially true to you. Thibodeau is kind of my go-to anecdote for how coaching changes can have huge impacts on defense regardless of player personell (Rambis to Adelman is another great example.) This kind of thing doesn’t seem to happen with offense. Players make the O, coaches make the D….. but not completely.
by vjl110 on Feb 18, 2012 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
thx - excerpt
When a team maintains the same coach, even if that team employs a new group of personnel, Defensive Win Score is as consistent as Offensive Win Score. On the other hand, when a team or player changes coaches there seems to be no consistency with previous defensive results, even if virtually the same players are employed
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 11:54 PM CST up reply actions
This is where the Flynn juxtaposition makes loads of sense to me.
Jonny last year was something of a gold standard for just how much awful play can hurt a team. By the numbers, by eye, whatever – we all knew, in almost every game (and game thread), that when Jonny checked in the Wolves were going to take a black eye. It’s still fresh. He was so bad on both ends that he makes the perfect argument for how much a weak link can damage his team. Anyone who saw it can testify. Disastrous players drag their teams down, big time.
Whatever the rationale was for playing Mr. Flynn, whether we were trying to force him through an injury recovery or just let him get his mojo back, the choice to send him out there helped nobody. The guy should have been in the D-league last season. He didn’t deserve to start the year before, even uninjured. Bad players hurt their teams.
When we’re talking about all-time worst seasons ever, a player’s occupying major minutes is part of the discussion. Wes is getting more time this year than Jonny last time, and he’s starting. The comparable “We’re stuck starting this guy and it makes me pull my hair out” example from Wolves history that occurs to me is Troy Hudson. T-Hud was a mediocre offensive point guard, and legendarily bad on the defensive end. He lost loads of games for us. His worst individual season here was his last – but again, he played so bad then that he got pulled. This year’s Wolves are stuck with Wes Johnson for the time being. That counts when you’re talking about All Time Worst seasons.
If we spend this entire year starting Wes Johnson while he plays like this, I think he wins it. Jonny Flynn is qualified, for me, but his more limited role, and by the injury. Wes isn’t injured. He’s starting. This is how he plays.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
(qualified *by* his more limited role....)
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
T-Hud’s 05/06 campaign came in close (his 04/05 season was bad, too). Had Will Avery had more minutes in 00/01 he would be in competition for the top spot. Shaddy’s awesomely bad 08/09 season was 4th. Interestingly enough, the guy who came in 5th was Justin Reed’s 05/06 campaign.
07/08 had bad efforts from Cupcake, Madsen and Toine.
Of allllll these players, Wes is on track to get more burn than any of them. Throw in the wing problem on a team with beasts at the 1, 4, and 5 and…well, this one sticks out. Just look at how the team beasts when he plays well for a few minutes here and there. I can’t imagine how big the substitution effect is going to be if/when he’s replaced by average production.
Yeah, I was looking at the various ranked metrics (WP being first on the list) in thinking about that.
Every other time there’s been a player stinking it up this way, the team’s had other options that made sense. The only other hideous option that’s gotten steady burn as a starter is T-Hud.
We really were screwed at PG for so long. Even in T-Hud’s epoch, though, we could start Anthony Carter or someone – a “replacement level” move. Here… Ew. There is a roster problem here, festering these three seasons or so.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
RE: "His physical dimensions and athleticism cannot be overlooked"
Unfortunately, that’s the main reason why he’s a Timberwolf.
Yes, being normal sized at the position matters but the reason why Wes went #4 is in many ways because he looks the part.
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck... you should probably eat it b/c it probably tastes really good.
I’m under the assumption that defense can be taught & outside shooting requires practice. Physical gifts cannot… I’m also under the assumption that the Wolves need a wing that can play consistently play top notch D, hit an outside J on a regular basis, & finish on the break.
Wes got the 3rd one down. The 1st 2 are a work in progress. I feel confident that his D can get better. But I’m not so sure about the outside shot.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:13 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
how many examples do you have of 24 year olds picking up on those things in the nba (and to the levels needed for him to reach average status)?
lots of assumptions. i’d be more excited about them if more players in the past had managed to follow through on them. he is a 24 year old second year player who cant dribble. this is the guy who is going to work hard to develop his shot and defense? for a guy who has been so physically blessed he either seems very disinterested in or incapable of developing them into actual production.
Deng’s dribbling used to be turrible. now it’s just not great. he’s worked on his dribbling in his late 20s.
J Kidd had a notoriously bad outside shot. now it’s acceptable/passable.
Reddick and Ray Allen were both known for crappy defense. now they’re heralded as the bastions of defensive effort.
I think Wes’ crap eating grin gives people the impression of nonchalance. I see it as a defense-mechanism. False confidence is better than no confidence.
plus, it doesn’t help that he has flashes of potential. a highlight film oop or a chasedown block. a cool pass (that Love drops). his pretty J when the shot actually falls.
he is an example of a player that many dislike… looks good, but is statistically worthless.
I’ll argue that many good defensive players are statistically non-existent. i’d venture to say that many around the league think that Bogues is an above average defender. but I also think he doesn’t have any worthwhile stats.
but the metrics aren’t currently available today. for example, I’d like to eventually like to see heartrate of players. for example, if Pek were closing out on a shooter from 10 feet, I think the shooter’s heartrate wouldn’t be affected much. but if Pek were closing out within 1 foot and impending doom is imminent with possible loss of limbs, I think the heartrate would be out the roof (along w/a poor shooting percentage from the opposition). but seriously, heartrate could measure things like hustle or fear.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 8:48 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think you need defensive metrics
Offense is what gets the vast majority of players up through the ranks and to the pros. Every player in the league was a gifted offensive player in hs and or college. My bet is that the things that make pros good at offense are, by in large, the same things that make them good at defense. Wes and Jonny are the types of players who got far on their relative athleticism without developing the similar amount of skill. I dont think the chances of him developing an actual pro skill at this point are high.
idk if Wes can do it
Adelman has been blessed w/talented wings in the past.
Kersey, Drexler, Petrovic, Sprewell, Mullin, Stojakovic, McGrady, Martin… all he’s got now is Beasley.
i think Wes can develop as a solid role player providing 20 min a game.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 9:33 PM CST up reply actions
It okay if you are not wrong
If Wes doesn’t improve we just need to admit that and move on. I don’t think Wes is going to have much time to show something past this season.
I think it will be over and we will get Batum. I am calling it right now.
Wes’ days as a starter are numbered.
by Pass the rock on Feb 18, 2012 10:17 PM CST up reply actions
Seems more likely that the Blazers will make Wallace available
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 18, 2012 10:21 PM CST up reply actions
I think Portland will try and trade Wallace...
If they are successful that would indeed, suck.
But if not, I think we make a HUGE offer for Batum. Either as a RFA or at $13M/yr (per OR-7 Fan Post). This is one guy, I think Kahn has targeted appropriately – I watch Portland games just to watch Batum.
He is one of top-5 NBA players that I like to watch. Rubio, Nash, Rondo, and Durant (but having to watch Westbrook at the same time is annoying) being the others.
Batum is amazingly skilled, he can defend 3’s and 2’s and, at times, the 1’s. Is fluid and quick on the offensive end. Very decisive in his approach which leads to quick passes and little ball-stopping. Plus he actually has skills with his athleticism, including legitimate 3-point range (not to be confused with Wes) and ball-handling abilty. Batum’s 3pt shot-fake and drives are a thing of beauty.
OKay, if my eye test is not enough, look up Batum’s advanced stats, they are nice.
Landing a Batum and a decent 2 (i’m hoping Courtney Lee or Mayo, realistically) would make the Pups a very, very scary team.
by Pass the rock on Feb 19, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
*Is* there evidence that Kahn is targeting Batum?
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
Yes
I am not an “insider” but read that he tried trading the #4 (Wes johnson) for Batum. Also, I think there was a play for him before the lock-out
by Pass the rock on Feb 19, 2012 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Batum is Luol Deng, Jr. for me, or that's the sketch.
Basically the much lower-usage, been-lower-in-pecking-order model.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
13 mil a year for Batum
He’d obviously help, but that is a ton of money for him.
by TO12 on Feb 19, 2012 12:42 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
The very sad fact is that,
if Wes Johnson gets this whole season to show something, he’ll be a real frontrunner for worst season by a Wolf ever.
I don’t think Wes is going to have much time to show something past this season.
Ever if we’re hoping he emerges against the odds, too…. Shouldn’t we still want our team to fix its wings up, so that he earns his way onto the court?
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
I wonder how fungible he is right now, based on that.
Xavier Henry went for a second rounder. He’s never earned any time, but carried a gentler rookie scale deal.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
they did what?
KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNNNN
actually I recall hearing about that and Lazar’s contracts at the same time. Somehow we moved Lazer…
Just take your first example:
Luol Deng? Luol Deng, whatever his limitations, has been a positive contributor to his NBA team since his rookie year. Yeah, he’s improved various sides of his game. But the guy deserved to be out there. And no, he didn’t add a complete skill set.
One bit of “received wisdom” that’s sometimes handy is the maxim that young NBA players first need to establish what they can do out there. After that, they can work on their weaknesses. Luol Deng (and Ray Allen for crissakes) had serious NBA skills that earned minutes. Wes Johnson does not. He’s a bad-handle guy who’s meant to be a shooter, only with a bad shot.
We don’t need to get “statistics” to the level of mind reading to know when meaningful performance on the court isn’t good. If the player’s heart rate rises or falls, the meaningful result is that his shot is made or not. Controlling for whether opposing SGs’ adrenal glands are functioning normally isn’t necessary.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
I'm curious
During that draft, the narrative on this board was DMC vs. Wes. At the time, I was firmly in the Wes camp, and it wasn’t so much an endorsement of his talent as it was my fear of DMC……DMC struck me as the type of player reminiscent of Rashad McCants or even J.R. Rider……the tragic figure who his blessed with such a level of talent that you are in essence forced to give him a prominent role and every opportunity to succeed, yet someone whose innate personality demonstrated a level of toxicity that would definitively cripple his own career but would stunt the development of his team given how much extra energy he would require to coach and put in a position to succeed.
But that said, it wasn’t as if the argument against Wes was “he’s going to be the worst player in the league”……..the argument was that his age and his limited sample size of top-flight production suggested the likelihood of him reaching the star power one would expect to obtain with the #4 overall pick in the draft was pretty minimal.
So in my head, I was fine with the Wes pick because I felt that, even though he had a lower ceiling, he had a much higher floor, and was more likely to end up in a better place than any one else available at #4. I certainly would have been less likely to advocate the pick of Wes had i foreseen him having the worst season in Wolves history as a realistic scenario.
Here’s where my ignorance and my casual attention to the sport kicks in……..it seemed as if this was considered a safe, reasonable pick by most of the NBA pundits at the time. The Wes pick wasn’t the Knicks taking Renaldo Balkman or the Oakland Raiders taking Sebastian Janikowski in the first round….this wasn’t considered a reach by any means. The worst that people could say about the pick at the time was that the Wolves were risking the difference between DMC’s ceiling and Wes’ ceiling.
Nobody, even on this board (that I remember) predicted that Wes would be this abominally bad. Obviously, if there were indicators that we would be this putrid in college, he wouldn’t have been drafted at 44, much less 4. If the Wolves didn’t draft him, you have to think he wouldn’t have fallen past #10 (warning! unscientific analysis!)
A similar phenomenon took place with Hasheem Thabeet. If Thabeet wasn’t drafted at #2, he wasn’t getting past the Wolves at #5. And if for whatever reason the Wolves drank out of the cup of enlightenment and passed, he wouldn’t have gone past #10. Yet, this guy shouldn’t have been drafted at any position. Yet, I remember reading a glowing Chad Ford article about him prior to the draft.
So here’s my question for the community………..how do these things happen? How does Wes Johnson, Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, Joe Alexander, Adam Morrison, Marcus Fizer or Stromile Swift happen? How is that these picks, which weren’t necessarily considered “reaches” (which is the scenario you would most likely expect to encounter a complete and total bust of a draft pick) ended up busting out? How does the NBA intelligentsia, and not blowhards like Stephen A but intelligent analysts like Chad Ford, not foresee this?
This community is more comfortable with some of the advanced statistics and analytics of basketball than I am………career-blowing injuries aside, is there any more reliable way to predict complete and total ineptitude and suckitude a la Wes? If there are, are these stats/analytics just ignored by the media? Should there be a case where a guy gets pulled off a draft board entirely and not taken at any pick/
by Neil Annwn on Feb 18, 2012 4:31 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
player selection isn't just all about the money ball saber-rattling stats
.bq He basically was thrown off the Hornets after numerous disputes with Byron Scott. He was suspended in the playoffs by coach George Karl for refusing to run team plays. He was cited with a felony in a fatal car accident. He was suspended by the league for 10 games in a brawl with the Knicks. The NBA suspended him another time in a nightclub brawl. In China, he feuded with team officials and his sister got into a brawl with fans in the stands. Sam Smith
This is why I wasn’t too interested in JR Smith. he just would have been toxic for the chemistry of this team. I believe in second chances, but third chances?
my guess is Run DMC had too many black flags that would have rubbed the Minnesota populace the wrong way.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 4:40 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know that I have an answer for you
but I think in part it speaks to the nature of stats based modeling and analysis. I am a big proponent of it, but one thing most statistical models won’t do is predict extreme outliers. This is true when predicting both teams and players; a model will rarely predict a team to win less than 20 games in a full season, but most seasons there are teams below that level. It’s because extreme results are the function of both talent and luck. Things have to awfully wrong to win 15 games in an NBA season with almost any possible level of talent.
Nobody thought Johnson would be as bad as he is, because almost nobody who is capable of being this bad is drafted in the lottery; the fact that the Wolves managed two in consecutive years is mind-boggling. Does this speak to anything? I don’t know. I don’t really want to suggest that there is an alternative world in which Wes Johnson is a capable player, but there might be an argument that there is a range of possible results for any player or team that resembles a bell curve, and while Johnson’s most likely result was worse than the Wolves envisioned, there was no way to expect that he would wind up on the extreme left of that curve.
Or maybe not.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 18, 2012 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think this is right
Small sample sizes will always mean extremes. This is not the bet you want to make. You want to place your money on what is likely not to happen, not what is unlikely to happen. This is counter-intuitive to many people, especially since the payoff for the unlikely event is so high. Hooray lotto!
SnP does a good job of explaining
the method behind his draft boards. http://www.canishoopus.com/2012/2/5/2772804/2012-initial-draft-board
Read that for more insight. Basically, there are traits and attributes that have shown to translate between the college and pro game. Rebounding typically does, scoring not as much. It gets more nuanced if you care to go that deep (usg%, iso ppp, etc.), but really unless you find a transcendent talent like LeBron, your best bet is to invest in players with skillsets that tend to translate to the pro game.
That's true, but that isn't so much my question.
See…that makes sense, and that’s a pretty common motif in Hollinger’s analysis……I guess my question is that nobody who regularly covered the NBA seemed to think Johnson would be a complete and total flop…….the argument against him at the time was that he had a relatively low ceiling for what you might expect out of the #4 pick.
The fact that he has been a total disaster means that a ton of people in the media (and myself, even though I’m not in the media) were wrong. If he had been picked at #10, the pick would have been lauded as the steal of the draft, and it still would have been wrong in retrospect. How were so many people deluded?
It is a pretty funny thing.
I guess the NBA is just different enough from college (or high school) that you never really know how they’ll react playing against a much higher level of competition. That still doesn’t explain things like a drop in Wes’ free throw percentage relative to college.
i think your belief that Wes is a total flop is faulty
he’s doing a decent job on D (half of the game). he’s not meeting expectations in the other half of the game.
plus, he’s a 2nd year player. he needs some time to marinate.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:12 PM CST up reply actions
Your "decent job on D" argument
is not air tight. It’s basically your word against anyone who doesn’t see it the same way. While defensive stats aren’t very good, they don’t tell a story that Wes is a good defender. I agree with your view that he’s got the best physical tools on the team for defending, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s a consistently good defender. He has some good defensive highlights, but I see lapses as well.
you saw my shpiel on Wes after the Bobcats game
since metrics are tough to gather for D, the kludge solution is a running tally on the player. those notes showed that Wes played decent D more often than not for that specific game. but yes, he was not consistently good on D during that game.
he definitely has plenty of lapses on D. but that can be remedied through practice, experience, coaching, and hard work. lack of physical tools cannot…
on a side note, I wouldn’t complain if Martell took more of his minutes.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
He's a #4 pick
A “decent job on D” is not really enough.
The only option is not offer him his fourth year and hope we can move him as an expiring. He might work somewhere else in a different environment, but he’s surely done his dash in Minnesota.
I think this is the first time in history one man managed to destroy an entire city by himself. Even the Enola Gay had a flight crew.
A decent job on D
Is also seriously debatable. My eyeball test confirms that, with the exception of going up against Kobe, Wes does not do a good job on D.
Further, how do you miss on Wes? You count the number of pink flags. As with women (for me, anyway), the absence of a red flag isn’t that good of news if there are a number of pink flags. Pink is just faded red, after all.
Wes’ history, which someone pointed out one day reviewing his Iowa State days, is chock full of various flags that would lead someone to say there are so many possible issues, maybe he shouldn’t be taken at #4. I can’t take the time to dig all these up, but it goes well beyond his advanced college stats and his age.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
You want to "marinate" players?
Let them soak in their marinade in the D-league.
(When did this metaphor start taking hold, by the way? First I heard of it was a little movie called “Kissing Jessica Stein.”)
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
i've never watched the movie
but I do watch a lot of Top Chef
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
5 picks
I hate rehashing draft decisions of years gone by so I’m going to put on my hair shirt… ehuuuu…Ok…I was so excited for the 2010 draft because the Wolves had five picks. I spent the the whole season prior making and refining lists. I figured if you got the best player you could get at each slot, threw the whole works at the wall over the next couple years and waited to see what stuck; maybe you got a star, or at least a good starter, hopefully at least two everyday players. The evening played out as dismay heaped upon consternation. I reluctantly conceded afterwards that you probably couldn’t have five rookies on a team and wiser men then I probably knew what they were doing. The five guys on my druel list (if anyone cares I will divulge) have all had a shot and I don’t think the outcomes are clear on any of them. I don’t think Wolves management’s strategy has played out any better than mine would have, and mine was ill-conceived and naive. Yeah despite all the statistical tools it’s a crap shoot, but x#!& $^# Five Picks!
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Feb 19, 2012 12:23 AM CST up reply actions
http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/6/24/1533603/final-2010-draft-board
You are right that most people thought wes would be pretty good. However, if you take a look at SnP’s views on the bottom of the page he had Wes ranked quite low. More fuel for the SnP for GM fire.
by rugbyisbetter on Feb 19, 2012 7:36 AM CST up reply actions
If I was Taylor
I would honestly hire VJ and SnP the amount of work these guys do without getting paid, I can only imagine making this their “9-5.” Plus they know their shit, so that helps
by WolvesBigTicket on Feb 19, 2012 2:52 PM CST up reply actions
I wonder if they would be devastated when they see how things actually happen behind closed doors
Sort of like how politicians start out innocent but are eventually corrupted by the crap system that is run
or maybe they would dominate
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 3:01 PM CST up reply actions
In all honesty...
I would probably start procrastinating by working on my dissertation and leave all of my GMing responsibilities until last minute.
I'll attempt to answer your question
I think the most dangerous thing in draft analysis is groupthink. People like Chad Ford can never be insulted/fired if they A) keep a modest opinion of a player and B) say what everyone else is saying. Because of that you very seldom hear extreme opinions of players that don’t fit their draft slot.
I’ll use my personal experience to better explain. I run a smallish NFL Draft website. When evaluating Cam Newton last year I knew he’d be a first round pick. However, the combination of his perceived cockiness, his inability to recall his college playbook, his inconsistent throwing motion, and my feelings that his running ability wouldn’t translate very well to the next level led me to think that he wouldn’t be a successful NFL QB. In fact, I thought he’d be out of the league in 4 years. I felt the same way about JaMarcus Russell a few years ago. I ended up being correct about Russell, and incorrect about Newton. Readers tend to remember things that go apart from the consensus more vividly when they’re incorrect than when they’re correct. So while my extreme beliefs of #1 overall picks are correct 50% of the time (a great percentage considering the low probability of a bust of epic proportions at #1) I would lose credibility with my readers because of how wrong I was about Newton. Because of that, I simply offered my opinions about their strengths and weaknesses without saying “I think they’ll be jobless by the time they’re 25.” I let my readers draw their own extreme conclusions based on the skillsets I say the players have because they don’t have much on the line. Sometimes you just have to read between the lines and determine if “Wes Johnson struggles to create on the dribble,” actually means “Wes Johnson will be out of the league in 3 years because he’s woefully inept offensively.”
As for teams… it’s the same concept. We destroy the team that took Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan (because they had Clyde Drexler) more than we credit the team who took Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley (even though most thought Beasley was better, and the Bulls had Kirk Hinrich with no low-post presence). Because guys are trying to save their jobs, nobody wants to pass on a guy who is the consensus top talent, even if they like somebody else more. Kahn is one guy who goes by the beat of his own drum, and because he’s been wrong on his draft picks so far he’s been panned for it. However, if Derrick Williams fails to become the player Jonas Valanciunas does, we won’t care because it was the consensus pick at the time.
Does this answer your question, or did I misinterpret what you were asking?
On the topic of suckiness
The Bulls are currently getting ripped by New Jersey. Ouch.
T'Wolves 2012: Where Pek Decimates Jason Thompson
i'm distracting myself w/CH
Ughhh…
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
don't worry, you have let to unleash your MVP
Brian Scalabrine.
T'Wolves 2012: Where Pek Decimates Jason Thompson
this game will prove the importance of good D
they’ll get it under double digits.
but they’ll still probably lose this game. farghh…
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
I think I can pretty much guarantee
the Bulls will not shoot 33% all game. If someone could just man up against Kris Kardashian, it could get close.
T'Wolves 2012: Where Pek Decimates Jason Thompson
and by someone I mean Carlos Boozer
Thibs could also try getting shots for someone not called Watson. You know, who doesn’t suck.
T'Wolves 2012: Where Pek Decimates Jason Thompson
Bulls fans have opposite expectations and values from Wolves fans
due to the systems in place, Wolves fans seem to place a high value on offense (and less on defense) – Bulls fans vice-versa.
Boozer is the goat for Bulls’ fans. even though his offensive production has been the same per MPG, Bulls’ fans keep clamoring for his defense improvements.
Wes is the focus of Wolves’ fans ire. his offensive output (or lack thereof) won’t satisfy fans in the near future.
it’s odd that Bulls fans ignore Boozer’s O contributions just like Wolves fans ignore Wes D contributions. both ends of the game are important, and it’s up to the couch to juggle all of these parts.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:01 PM CST up reply actions
yup
it’s 1:30 Sun afternoon here. time for me to feed kid 3 of 4 some ramen. 1st 2 playing w/buddies. youngest chillaxin with Mom.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
nice
i never made it to that camp while i was stationed in the region. i wish i would have spent more time touring japan.
just had a lil' quake shake
5.2 magnitude at 1454
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 11:59 PM CST up reply actions
Lessons learned from a Bulls loss
http://blogs.bulls.com/2012/02/bulls-lead-some-hard-facts-in-blowout-loss-to-nets/
- Beasley (or a player traded for Beasley) needs to be in the long term plans of the Wolves. Every team needs 1 good iOS player. Beasley is the Wolves’ guy for now. The whole team doesn’t have to be working like a well oiled machine when an iso player is generating points by himself.
- Darko needs to just dunk the damn ball!
- Love and Pek need good surrounding shooters to operate in the post with proper spacing. A packed cluttered paint sucks.
- it’s human. Players play to the level of their competition. Multimillionaires still need leadership and motivation to play.
- You can’t shoot your way back in from long distance.
- revenge and other psychological factors cannot be ignored.
- more games are decided in the first quarter than in the last five minutes.
- any team in the NBA can beat another team in a 1 game series.
- injuries suck. Every team is one ankle twist away from losing to crap teams. Be thankful that Love Rubio and Pek are healthy.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 2:37 AM CST up reply actions
"Multimillionaires still need leadership and motivation to play."
Replace “still” with “especially.”
You can't...dust...for vomit.
as long as there's no more Ridnour bashers
- lots of folks in the CH game threads bash Rid when he’s sucking out there
- and there are a lot of folks on the CH thread complaining to just punch it in the post when we need a hoop
Ridnour is the team’s only reliable outside threat. when team’s start packing the paint, it gets harder to throw that post entry pass. Ridnour and Barea are out there for spacing. Ricky ends up having to throw a harder pass bc they can sag on him (not as much as Rondo, but they can still sag). no soaking and a clogged paint area also leads t more turnovers.
these guys gotta hit their outside Js consistently!
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
You hate Wes
We get it, he’s not very consistent and when he bad he’s really bad but come on give him a break he actually played well last night. There’s no reason to feel the need to remind us he’s bad because we all just saw him play a good game. He had 9 points on 4-6 shooting, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 0 turnovers. Obviously that’s not great by itself but combine that with the fact he was able to hold Houston’s leading scorer to 10 points on 2-8 shooting and I would say Wes played a really good game.
Nobody hates Wes...
they just hate having Wes play minutes on their favorite team. Big difference. We like to analyze players and talk about how much they help/hinder. When 9, 5, and 3 is a “really good game”, there is certainly something to complain about.
by vjl110 on Feb 18, 2012 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
It was a really good game, in a sense,
but he took so few shots that it’s hard to read much into it. If he had missed the one 3-pointer he hit, his TS% would have fallen from 0.750 to 0.500.
I hope you can figure out that defensive statistic. I just don’t think I can sort it all out with the eye test. Some good plays (like the breakaway block) are easy to remember. I also see Wes get burned a fair amount of the time, but that happens to everyone to some degree, so is he any better or worse than other players in that way? I have no desire or ability to keep track of all of it in my head.
Not what I said
I said 9, 5, and 3 wasn’t great but what really made it a good game for him was his defense. Again he held Houston’s leading scorer to 10 points on 2-8 shooting, this is where the “really good game” came from. I’m big on defense and if we could hold every player on the opposing teams to 25% shooting and nearly half of their scoring average I’ll take offensive games like that.
but sometimes using that metric can unjustifiably condemn a player
hypothetical: all of the Wes hate would have rained down if Martin scored 21 pts on 10-25 shooting in a Houston win. there would have been plenty arguments pro-Wes or anti-Wes…
my point is that defensive metrics generally have holes.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:18 PM CST up reply actions
In that case Wes would have played a bad game
If your hypothetical is true then it would have been justified. There is a huge difference between 21 pts on 40% shooting and 10 points on 25% shooting. I would agree that defensive stats have holes but I don’t think there are too many holes when it comes to observations.
it might not have been a bad game for Wes in this hypothetical situation
- what if Wes weren’t the guy matched on him 100% of the time?
- what if Wes got into foul trouble & the other reserves were injured? so he ended up playing conservative D by necessity.
- what if none of his teammates were playing good help D?
- what if Martin was having a streak of 40 point games?
- what if Martin had to expend an excess amount of energy & made a whole bunch of crazy circus shots just to get that 21 pts?
- were the refs making conservative calls or allowing rough play?
- did Wes put in max effort?
- did the couch have poor defensive tactics that allowed Wes to be targeted (e.g. less help D, didn’t have a defensive squad on the floor, zone coverage, etc.)?
D stats currently suck. D is too subjective.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:50 PM CST up reply actions
it doesn't help that the NBA is entertainment focused on offense
when Jordan was hot, it wouldn’t matter if 3 Celtics were draped on him one inch from release… he would still hit the bucket. were the 3 (or sometimes 5) Celtics playing bad D? no… they did what was reasonable possible in the confines of the rules.
i’ll argue that blocks, steals, charges, forced turnovers, defensive proximity, deflections, # of hustle plays, saves… all of these have holes.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 6:05 PM CST up reply actions
Here's where I think you go off the tracks
Not everything can be measured on the court. Nobody is arguing that it can. What is being argued is that there are some measuring sticks better than others. Steals, blocks, offensive fouls drawn, rebounds…these are all examples of players being active off the ball. They imply in a not very round about way that a player has bbiq, works hard, etc. Yes, each of these measurements have “holes” in the sense that they can be explained away on a case-by-case basis but as a whole they go a long way for showing what I think is something of a good quality for players to have: a propensity to do shit.
All of your what-ifs are perfectly valid on a case-by-case basis but they make for a lousy measuring stick. Individual tilts are going to give a fairly large range of feedback and things will tend to give way to broad trends with the larger the sample size. In any specific game, yeah, Wes could have bad refs, played a guy away from the hoop, etc, but over the course of time, his experience will even itself out in relation to his positional peer group. Eventually, he should be able to do some of these things on a consistent basis, but he doesn’t.
Over the course of time, trying to build a measuring stick for off the ball activity using some of the questions you asked just doesn’t work. Wes just doesn’t produce like a normal wing player. He’s not even close.
my stance is that Wes is only half bad, just not REALLY REALLY bad
compared to his peers (sophomores)…
- blocks per 48 / 28th of 57 (right behind Blake Griffin)
- defensive rebounds per game / 18th of 57 (right behind Pek)
- steals per game / 24th of 57
granted, one reasonably expects a #4 pick to be more than middle of the pack statistically, but it helps show that he isn’t REALLY REALLY bad.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 6:44 PM CST up reply actions
You've thrown in some per-game statistics
when some of the 57 players have barely played. If I restrict the list to players who have played at least 100 minutes, I get 37 players. Here’s Wes’ rank out of 37 for various stats (that don’t depend directly on the number of minutes played):
TS%: 33
TRB%: 30
AST%: 21
STL%: 31
BLK%: 21
TOV%: 14
ORtg: 33
DRtg: 18
WS/48: 32
That’s not super good.
I never said he was good :)
I think that Wes is not good. I do not think Wes is really bad. Semantics… sounds the same… but there is a difference.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:02 PM CST up reply actions
This
Also, the Wolves don’t play games against 2nd year players. They include the rest of the league.
a couple questions
- do you believe that Wes can become a top tier defender in a couple years?
- do you believe that Wes can become a consistent outside shooting threat in a couple years?
I think he can do both. both just require a lot of hard work. if JJ Redick can transform from crappy to respectable through diligence, why can’t Wes?
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:01 PM CST up reply actions
I just don't see any of the defensive ability you are talking about
(which, as MD mentions, is a fairly big problem with the eye test)
No and no. JJ Redick had a long track record of being able to shoot the ball. He had a real pro skill. Wes just has a pretty looking shot and some really great-looking athleticism. I think that’s the only reason why people hang on and hope. He looks like he should be the bee’s knees but he’s not.
I had shpiel in Wierd Harold's report card on the Cats near the bottom of the thread
yes, that was just one game. but many of the good things he did was repeatable.
- closed out on shooters, boxed out, denied passing lanes, fouled appropriately on strong drives, good ISO defense, occasionally provided good help D, a block, can get better at fighting screens, prevented strong drives (rather than getting burnt), hustled back on breaks, stole ball
none of this was extraordinary. and he did make mistakes on D in this game. but it gives me hope that he can improve on his D.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:48 PM CST up reply actions
with his offensive (lack of) talent...
….he would have to be so mind-bendingly good on defense to even things out that there really wouldnt be any discussion over whether or not he was good at defense. wes has done a lot of thigs that should be repeatable. the problem with wes is that he doesnt repeat them all that often.
A mildly alright (sometimes) defensive player
is not worth $5m a season.
he's the 9th highest paid player on the team (7% of total salary) this year
Player — 2011/12 Salary — Rank — % — Avg. Per Game
Beasley — $6,262,347 — 1 — 11% — $94,884.05
Webster — $5,256,000 — 2 — 9% — $79,636.36
Milicic — $4,776,500 — 3 — 8% — $72,371.21
Miller — $4,752,000 — 4 — 8% — $72,000.00
Barea — $4,300,000 — 5 — 8% — $65,151.52
Love — $4,609,704 — 6 — 8% — $69,844.00
Williams — $4,602,720 — 7 — 8% — $69,738.18
Pekovic — $4,320,000 — 8 — 8% — $65,454.55
Johnson — $4,006,080 — 9 — 7% — $60,698.18
Ridnour — $3,680,000 — 10 — 6% — $55,757.58
Rubio — $3,480,120 — 11 — 6% — $52,729.09
Randolph — $2,911,231 — 12 — 5% — $44,109.56
Tolliver — $2,050,000 — 13 — 4% — $31,060.61
Ellington — $1,154,040 — 14 — 2% — $17,485.45
Lee — $473,604 — 15 — 1% — $7,175.82
$56,634,346 $858,096.15
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
let's see if he earns his $60 grand for tonight's game
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
we better start getting better burn for Beasley, Webster, and Miller
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
SnP mentioned he was working on this post four or five days ago.
I doubt he posted it today because Wes had a non-terrible game last night.
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 18, 2012 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
So you're choosing parenting over trying to make concessions to the pro-Wes crowd. Typical.
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 18, 2012 6:29 PM CST up reply actions
Kidnapping DeMarcus Cousins,
the original edition: The Ransom of Red Chief.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
This article is not very well timed.
You post it right after he has a decent game. And the last few games he has been putting some things together. You really should have timed your Wes-bashing campaign for earlier when he was at his nadir.
Yeah...
….you’re right. I need to have more write ups about 2 game stretches instead of 30 game ones.
"Wes-bashing campaign"
It’s the agenda again! The narrative! Jesus Christ, people. THERE IS NO CONSPIRACY!
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 18, 2012 6:11 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, I need to just let it go.
It’ll be hard to ignore, but it’s too stupid to be worth responding to.
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 18, 2012 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
There is no conspiracy...
…. just a broken record.
by Vrooman on Feb 18, 2012 6:18 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Best season in years....
…. and we’re celebrating the poop?
P.S. – I like your take on most topics here (cooking included), but this drum has been beaten more than a dead horse. Not saying you’re wrong, but….
by Vrooman on Feb 18, 2012 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
I'm not going to go whole-hog positivity on a team with a losing record and some obvious flaws
Wes being Wes is just as big of a part of this team as Ricky being Ricky. Until it is evacuated, the poop is still a part of the body.
Paging Dr. Defecate!
Time for an emergency enema!
(and yes, I feel kinda guilty for endorsing that analogy with a joke, probably in bad taste...)
(no pun intended….)
Nobody wants this new tag line. Please no. But it works damn well.
Until it is evacuated, the poop is still a part of the body.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
by feral on Feb 19, 2012 8:59 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
if poop is part of the body...
…then i have a poop amputation 3 times a day.
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
I'm super interested in who is rec'ing this post
This season is being stolen from us because of horrid play at the 2 and 3. Why would anybody sit back and be satisfied with any season where it could be going much better, much less one where there have been more losses than wins?
Wes is the topic of discussion because his play is a fundamental reason the team hasn’t done well. It will continue to be a focal point until the major negative is removed, which now appears only possible by sitting/jettisoning Wes. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again:
With Love, Pek, and Rubio, right now playing wing for the Timberwolves is the easiest job in the NBA this side of center for the Heat. It is absolutely amazing the Wolves don’t have a solution there.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
I blame Sid and Dave
Or maybe Dick and Bert. Or PA and Dubay.
(I think it’s a proud Minnesota sports tradition.)
An even older...
….. Minnesota sports tradition is pessimism and bandwagon jumping. But that could sports fandom in general.
Of course the season could be going better. Which teams’ seasons couldn’t? Wes is horrible, and has been since day 1. He might get better, he might not. Dissecting his past won’t change the past or the future. I hope, perhaps irrationally, that he’ll find a role he can fulfill. Hey, I’m just happy there is a basketball season and the Wolves are no longer a laughingstock. I guess I am fan with low standards. :)
by Vrooman on Feb 19, 2012 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I really think there is something in the water here in Minny that gives the Sid and Dave stuff a bit more oomph
That being said, there is no right or wrong way to be a fan….I just don’t get this particular bit.
anything wrong with the bandwagon?
I’m here bc of the Rubio. his play is fun to watch. Pek as well.
I sorta like Love bc nothing can really happen without him.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions
For the amount of time and money I input into this team-
I’m not terribly happy with “not a laughingstock”. There has been development, but the amount of very close losses should be easy to see how replacing negative performance with baseline performance would probably have us 4 more wins. And I don’t know about you, but 19-12 and looking for homefield advantage seems like a lot more fun to me.
There is an odd sense....
…. of entitlement by some posts with claims of a “stolen season” and this season’s improvement not providing enough return on time and money invested. There are no guarantees, only hope. I can appreciate fans coming up with solutions to a team’s problem(s) or having very high expectations. But to claim foul when a team fails to deliver to your expectations is a little much. The nature of sports is that many will be disappointed and some will bask in glory. It would appear that there is a faction of fandom that is becoming increasingly winnercentric/loserphobic. It’s this faction that drives major sports to pursue parity, the marketing of video games you can never lose, and the bar set lower and lower with school curriculum. How’s that for conflating a disparate set?
And I meant nothing against Vrooman's post
It’s a natural reaction for some. But, and no offense, it reminds me of the thumbs up in the comments section of the Strib website when someone says something like “We should cheer for our home team.” Seems weird to have here.
You can't...dust...for vomit.
wtf!?
“This season is being stolen from us because of horrid play at the 2 and 3.” are you serious?! stolen from us?
You should have watched t-wolves games over the last, let’s say, 5 seasons. we have a decent young team, the future is bright, no team can take the wolves lightly anymore, people go to Target Center to watch them play, we have a rookie-sensation, are best player is committed to the team, two more wins and we have as many wins as the year before and we not even half through the schedule (is the allstar break the halfway mark) and finally: we are fighting for a playoffspot in the western conference, and who would have predicted that…
so leave me alone with your “stolen season talk”
by fantajohn on Feb 19, 2012 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
In spite of terrible play at the 2 and 3
We have the best power forward in the league, a budding star at the point, and a guy who is playing like a top-5 center… and are below .500. I would say there is a heist going on, and Wes Johnson is suspect #1.
by vjl110 on Feb 19, 2012 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
May be the guy just eventually plays through all of this (fingers crossed)
I gotta believe that’s what Adelman is thinking. He must see something in practice that suggests to him that Wes can eventually contribute. I’ve resigned myself to just accept that Adelman ain’t budging and now I’m hoping for the best. Hell, even Corey Brewer has turned himself into a pretty efficient player. That’s incredible to me after 3 seasons of posting sub-50 TS% with regular minutes.
Adelman obviously sees something.
And Adelman is a damned good coach. I think Wes has been horrible on offense up to this point, but I think its pretty obvious he’s in there for defensive purposes.
To this post: Very well researched, but I really think that Jonny had a toxic effect on the court that simply is not even close to being mirrored by Wes. He was the primary ballhandler and controlled the flow of the game. He was a horrible defender who got burned on just about every play. Wes at least has been driving lately and can run on the break, and plays decent D. Jonny would get lost on every possession, dribbling himself into no man’s land, and couldn’t run a break to save his life.
A lot of Jonny’s badness didn’t show up on his boxscore.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 18, 2012 5:50 PM CST up reply actions
@ my post above, I think that Adelman is also playing him because of a lack of options
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 18, 2012 5:51 PM CST up reply actions
Defense
Yes, with Ridnour playing the 2 and guarding the lesser of the opposing teams’ wings, Adelman figures he needs someone that can guard 2’s or 3’s. Putting Beasley or Williams out there as our starting 3 doesn’t allow for this. I guess the question is why not start Ellington at the 2 and Beasley or Webster or Williams at the 3?
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 18, 2012 6:21 PM CST up reply actions
If Webster gets back into starter shape I'm sure he could overtake him in the starting linup
Adelman has said all along that Williams is a 4 and will not play him at the 3 much at all. Ellington, I don’t know
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 18, 2012 6:29 PM CST up reply actions
I wonder if Adelman doesn't tell his other players
“All you gotta do is play better than this guy (Wes.) Oh man, now I’m depressing myself.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Feb 18, 2012 11:24 PM CST up reply actions
Honestly I believe his (RA's) answer about not making changes until someone earns the spot
We’re all familiar with Beasley’s problems, and while he may be better than Wes, his play has not screamed look at me, I deserve this job. The two guys who have done that are now starting (Ricky and Pek). I think for Wes to lose the starting SF spot
A. Beasley would have to start defending better and start getting more respect from the refs when he drives.
B. Webster will have to rediscover how to shoot the 3 ball and stop playing Brew-esque ball (out of control).
do the Wolves have long term plans for Beasley?
articles like this & hearing comments about Beasley’s kid sitting on the owner’s lap… stuff like this makes me think he’s here for the long haul.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
Timing
A couple of things first:
1. I do not dispute anything you have written
2. Wes is bad
Ok, you hate when people go with the “narrative” thing in regards to your takes (and I agree that is BS), but you must know that, after one of the better wins of the season, a game in which Wes played about as well as he can, a post like this in lieu of a game wrap invites the “narrative” comments. I enjoyed this post and it’s clear you put work in to it, I just don’t get the timing, why not wrap the really good game and go with this after Wes has one of his usual brutal games?
sorry about the lengthy narrative - I'm new here
but defensive stats currently suck butt.
the O stats only paid a good picture for half the game.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:32 PM CST up reply actions
paid = paint
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
Mayn said it best:
“F is for fuck you wes you’re turrrrrrrrible”
by bustaone on Feb 19, 2012 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Right this minute I am watching the movie "The Pistol: Birth of a Legend" on Netflix
It gets me amped for watching Rubio perform his magic.
I've got good judgement from experience and experience from bad judgement.
is Wes really that bad compared to his peers?
Wings (peers) that are better (or equal to) than Wes.
2011: K. Leonard, C. Parsons, M. Brooks
2010: P. George, G. Hayward, E. Turner
2009: O. Casspi, A. Daye, J. Jerebko, T. Evans, J. Harden, D. DeRozan, G. Henderson, C. Budinger, M. Thornton, J. Meeks
plus, he’s better than a whole slew of others. let me ask again. is he really that bad?
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
i thought about doing that, but that really wouldn't have helped my cause
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
:)
I was hoping you’d do the list. It might not be a null set. I might give you Nick Young, for example.
I wouldn't
Young has more fade value than Wes
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:58 PM CST up reply actions
fade? = trade
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:58 PM CST up reply actions
Aw.
I thought you were talking about his haircut.
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 18, 2012 8:03 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I feel less manly after seeing Pek's hairline. that's a man's hairline.
I’m gonna get some plug implants now.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 8:14 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
In that listing of players, Derozan and Daye are the closest. If we rank the players 1-17 on each category, Derozan’s score is 53 compared to Wes’s 76. I put the 17 players into a google spreadsheet here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au2bgV_OdaPzdFhCQmZ3NWFoeFhEQzYxRUpuNFk0Q3c
I thought of him
but I didn’t want to wake up VoodooMagic.
by Madison Dan on Feb 18, 2012 11:17 PM CST up reply actions
lol! He's sleeping under his magic Voodoo hat
The felt linings are covered 360 degrees with trade machine monitors.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Feb 18, 2012 11:30 PM CST up reply actions
I bet when VM was in middle school
he’d no sooner sit down at the lunch table before he started trying to trade his peanut butter sandwich and baby carrots for a chocolate pudding.
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 18, 2012 11:36 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs
but then again, Wes shouldn't be starting.
Beasley should be starting.
but if he starts, there wouldn’t be enough O firepower from bench.
Wes is not bad at 22 minutes a game as a secondary role player wing. it just looks worse than there isn’t a significantly better wing than him on the team.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 7:54 PM CST up reply actions
Note: "Firepower" is not equivalent to "accuracy."
Michael Beasley: He might go off.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
by feral on Feb 19, 2012 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
if he's the focus (when Love ain't there), he'll get points with more shots
the Unicorn still needs to get him his share of easy buckets as well
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 1:39 PM CST up reply actions
I did that for Beasley a while back
and it was depressing. Since I think Wes is worse than Beasley…
I comped those players on the NBA Geek's page
Here.
Of those 17 players Johnson comes in 15th with WP48, 17th on p/48, 11th on reb+stl+blks, 16th on TS%, and 17th on FTA/FGA.
wow...
he doesn’t fare well compared to his peers. i kept looking at the numbers for something, but it all points to Wes being at the bottom of his peer group. geez…
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 11:13 PM CST up reply actions
Timing, repetition, whatever
Dudes who are complaining about “why did SnP post this now” and “OMG enough about wes already”: hey, just don’t read the article. You don’t want to read a critical look at Wes “Stick of Juicy Fruit” Johnson today? Great: don’t read it. It’s the internet for crying out loud. You don’t have to read anything. You can read the fanposts if you don’t want to read SnP. I like SnP, and I also read the fanposts.
This is not the NYT front page. It’s not a scarce resource that uniquely commands influence. The timing of featured posts to canis hoopus affects NOTHING. It’s just for fun. Beating a dead horse on canis hoopus affects NOTHING. It’s just for fun.
On the other hand, those who disagree with the substance of SnP’s post (arguing that Wesley Flynnson contributes on defense, for example) are doing it right. I’m glad to read a substantive discussion. That’s why I’m down here reading the comments. Disagree all you want about the argument or use of stats. But complaints about timing or repetition are just silly.
by onthekubelwagen on Feb 18, 2012 7:27 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
While this is sorta true
These people have just as much of a right to complain if they don’t love the article. Not saying its warranted, but like you said, this is the internet. People have opinions.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 18, 2012 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
i gotcha
I’m not saying they don’t have a right to post complaints. I’m saying it’s silly to do so.
Now, maybe it makes zero sense for me to even bother responding, and I will grant that argument to some degree. But I do have to wade past those comments to get to the ones I actually want to read. So I’m a little invested in suggesting an alternate recourse to these individuals.
by onthekubelwagen on Feb 18, 2012 7:46 PM CST up reply actions
Wes has played better and better
every game for two weeks now. Dwill also has looked better of late. There is no point in looking into stats and numbers when we as fans who watch the games know Wes was absolutely horrible in the beginning and did nothing right.
These two should not be judged for what they have produced so far, but what they do each and every game because they are young players who aren’t limited by their physical abilities but have not been able to adjust to the NBA yet.
I also am playing better and better every game for two weeks now.
There’s no need to look at my numbers. Please, start me in an NBA game.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
agreed on most of your comment except...
It’s not a scarce resource that uniquely commands influence.
but I disagree on this point. I believe that Hanny, local writers, and the other media types do read this page. they can’t get all of their opinions from the local tavern. and if the local media folks didn’t read this blog, they wouldn’t be doing their due diligence. media types can’t come up w/all of their own ideas.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
barrier to entry is low
Sure, Canis Hoopus is the most read wolves fansite. But the barrier to creating a competing fansite is super low. Just look at the Twins blogosphere six years or longer. At a certain point you could argue that Gleeman was really “the” serious Twins blogger. But all it took was a couple years for other people to hone their chops, pay attention, and write consistently enough on competing sites to get significant attention. Nowadays Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, Parker Hageman, Twinkie Town, etc. etc. get plenty of audience.
There’s no limit that prevents another wolves site from building up an audience and attention. It’s not like the NYT where you have to fight against 100 years of market/mind share and established distribution network, marketing muscle, etc.. If you don’t like SnP’s flavor then start a new site, or lend a hand writing/researching for one of the existing wolves sites. It just seems so silly to complain about the editorial tenor of CH as if we’re just stuck with CH as the only legitimate wolves site so we have to have it just so. It’s not the NYT. It’s not the GE/NBC media monolith. Just start another site.
And like I said, I’m not talking about people making real counter arguments and talking about substance. I’m sure SnP welcomes those responses. He engages quite a bit in the comments to resopnd to them. It just blows my mind that people complain about the “timing” or “tone” of SnP’s posts when the dude is posting in his free time on a website that you read for free.
by onthekubelwagen on Feb 18, 2012 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
no disagreements - I have no issues w/the timing or tone, but...
but Wolves fans really don’t have any other real legit site other than CH.
as an outsider, I spent some time researching the other blogs. none of the other blogs are timely. the other blogs wouldn’t be updated days or weeks at a time. plus, the other blogs usually only had 1 person (or a couple people) providing substantive viewpoints. CH is more like the open-source community with a bunch (a bunch is more than a truckload) of folks in addition to SnP contributing.
as a Bulls fan, there’s only 1 worthwhile media source (Sam Smith) worth reading. even though the Chicago market has multiple writers, they all have the same viewpoints. so Smith is the only one worth reviewing. here, it seems like Zgoda is THE guy, and he goes nowhere in depth as compared to Smith. he sorta’ provides the same stuff that other beat writers in Chicago provide.
so yes… folks can just start another site, but I’ve looked (in English, I can’t read the Spanish blogs that love Ricky). CH is it. no other place to get the best poop on the Wolves. I hope Zgoda gets more juicy in the future.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 8:12 PM CST up reply actions
No way Wes is as bad as Jonny Flynn
Wes cant shoot most nights but at least he can play some D
by RaysOfHope on Feb 18, 2012 8:29 PM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I'm just surprised that Madson wasn't in the running
who can forget that he was our go to guy for losing basketball games.
Bruce Bowen Redux
Remember Bruce Bowen of the Spurs when they were in their glory years? He had two jobs, defend the opponent’s best wing man and make corner threes. If the Wolves could get a decent shooting guard, that is what Wes would be asked to do and he would probably do a good job of it.
by Beancounter CPA on Feb 18, 2012 8:54 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
+1
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
Bruce Bowen! Raja Bell!
These are the guys I think they envision with Wes. At the beginning of the season, they even had Wes camp out in the corner waiting for the open 3. The problem was that he wasn’t making any of them. Honestly, if he can work on his shot and figure out how to knock that down, he will be an average SF. The problem is that the Wolves barely have any practice time with the condensed schedule, and Wes obviously needs some significant work on his jump shot. I hope that maybe he can put this work in during the off-season.
what was gained by buying out Eddy Curry's contract? more cap space?
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 11:22 PM CST up reply actions
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/compare?utf8=✓&player_ids%5B%5D=188&player_ids%5B%5D=57
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
did I get this right?
C. Brewer → A. Randolph + E. Curry
E. Curry → contract bought out (more cap room to sign Barea & Lee?)
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 18, 2012 11:38 PM CST up reply actions
Out of Curiousity
How bad was Pek last year? I’m not saying Wes can improve like Pek, be he gives me hope that Wes has some Bruce Bowen potential…
Pek was this year's Pek
Except he fouled around once a minute and got a ton of 3 second calls. Also the refs hated him. All those sweet post moves this year? They were called travels.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 1:17 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Gonna rec that one
for imagination. I don’t off hand know Wes’ wing span but he is “young and athletic” (per Kahn).
Where there is a D-Williams, there is a way
No kidding. Have you ever read this?
Kahn reports Wes’ pecs and biceps are looking firm and bigger just from his training this offseason thus far — Jerry Zgoda tweet to Jim Souhan on June 24, 2011
Gary, you didn't kill your brother. Those gorillas did.
by nja700 on Feb 19, 2012 12:18 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I couldn't have
commented any better. You are out standing in your field.
Where there is a D-Williams, there is a way
Bruce Bowen didn't shoot 22% from range...
in fact nobody in the history of the game (other than Wes) has done that while taking 4 attempts per 36minutes. hard to be Bruce Bowen if you can’t shoot a 3.
Can you get this data in just 30 game samples?
Wes shot 35% as a rookie. It will take him awhile to get near 30% this year unless he starts shooting exceptionally well, but I believe you are comparing full seasons to less than half a season. Also, there are quite a few players shooting poorly this season, which may have something to do with the lockout. For example, Ray Felton has taken more 3 pointers and is shooting below 22%. He just plays more minutes, so he falls below the 4 attempts per 36 minutes. Toney Douglas is shooting 3.9 threes per 36 and is shooting 23.5% in 26 games. Both of those guys shoot over 30% for their careers. Small sample size can make anyone look bad. I’m not saying Wes will look spectacular at the end of the season, but he could improve.
by Imyourhuckleberry on Feb 19, 2012 4:24 AM CST up reply actions
True on all points...
I think the lockout thing in particular has something to do with it. Shawne Williams, Toney Douglas, and Wes Johnson are all shooting below 25% on threes and taking a bunch of attempts. Outside of Smush Parker in 06/07, that hasn’t happened in the history of the NBA over more than 20 games.
So yes, three-point shooting is super volatile and the lockout seems to have made it even more-so… but what Wes is doing from 3 is still extremely rare in its awfulness. Given his first year production he could turn it around, but Bruce Bowen talk isn’t justified at this point. If Wes has a ceiling of Bruce Bowen, Love has a ceiling of Moses Malone mixed with Reggie Miller, and Rubio is the lovechild of Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo.
But your last couple of clauses are basically true.
Love has a ceiling of Moses Malone mixed with Reggie Miller, and Rubio is the lovechild of Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
by feral on Feb 19, 2012 9:06 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Pipe dream
Hoping that Wes can learn to shoot? He has already proven that he can’t shoot. He is a proven commodity.
Hang your hat on Malcolm Lee. Unproven.
by Stabby Stabby on Feb 19, 2012 2:15 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, but Wes inspires Kahn
into episodes of homo-eroticism (can I use that term here?).
For Kahn, you talk about the intangibles.
(I can say no more)
Where there is a D-Williams, there is a way
Wes Johnson Has A Nice Personality
what’s with all these stats?
by Los Lobos Del Bosque on Feb 18, 2012 10:09 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I think...
…it’s truly hilarious how some people still defend Wes. I would guess it’s only possible if one doesn’t watch any other NBA games to see what competent wing players look like.
The whole “Wes is a good defender and could be Bruce Bowen” thing is such an insult to the former Spurs great. Great defenders are almost always brilliant basketball IQ individuals. Bowen was a master at taking away the first choice of the offensive player he was guarding. He was always a step ahead.
Take last night for instance. Wes had a Rocket pinned in the corner, right along the baseline. If Wes is going to be a very good defender, then at the very least he should force his man to the baseline to make a tough decision of whether or not to spin back and try to get to the lane or have to jump in the air and attempt a shot or a pass. What happened? The player Wes was guarding slipped past him on the baseline and got off a good shot attempt (I don’t remember if the guy made the shot or not).
Defending at a high level in the NBA takes a lot of physical talent and a high basketball IQ. Wes struggles with basic basketball maneuvers yet some think he has high upside as a defender. I imagine these are the same people who thought Jonny Flynn could’ve played shooting guard next to Ricky.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 18, 2012 10:09 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
And I think its truly hilarious
how some people dont recognize that there are players who just havent adjusted to the NBA yet. There are a lot of players that take a few years to find a niche in the NBA after an abysmal start such as Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and J J Reddick to name a few.
All these players looked lost and overwhelmed by the NBA for a year or two, but have completely turned it around. Now I am definitely not going to say Wes is going to be even close to good as Bowen, but I think there is real potential in Wes because of his length, athleticism, and timing. His improving play of late encourages me to say that if Wes can realize the rhythm of the NBA game he could be dangerous. There are some plays of late which have really shown that Wes is getting his timing/confidence back, and I think he could show further improvement in the future.
by andrew33 on Feb 18, 2012 10:44 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I think you're going to need to find better examples
Here’s the comp of those three players.
Redick had a .114 wp48 in his rookie season. He’s always shot the ball above average for his position. Favors posted a .081 WP48 in his rookie season while being an above-average rebounder and average shooter for his position. Turner, for all his struggles to adjust to a role completely different than the one he had in college, managed a .094 wp48 his rookie season and thanks to decent passing and awesome rebounding for his position is currently the proud owner of a .154 wp48. Even with his crappy shooting, he’s posting a 1.07 pps. As “abysmal” starts as these players had, they were still miles ahead of what we’re seeing with Wes. That’s why it’s so amazing. He’s that much worse.
Wes hasn’t shown a single measurable NBA skill that is above average for his position to the level where one could get reasonably excited for him to “turn it around”. He doesn’t have Redick’s shooting or Turner or Favors’s rebounding. He’s bouncy and athletic looking. That’s what he has. Those things aren’t actually basketball skills. They could be seen as skills on the volleyball court or in the polo pool. He’s on a basketball court. Until he starts showing an ability to do, you know, basketball things on a level that makes him close to average for his position….well, I’m just not sure where people think the basketball skills are going to come from. Maybe he’s just not all that talented, basketball-wise. Maybe his athleticism and physical profile are sooooo good that he’s been able to coast to the age of 24 on nothing much else. If we’re going to give it the ol’ eyeball test, isn’t this a more likely possibility considering he can’t dribble or shoot and he appears incapable of doing anything off the ball?
by Stop-n-Pop on Feb 19, 2012 7:42 AM CST up reply actions 5 recs
Well that's just babytown frolics
People use analogs because it is difficult to navigate unbounded abstractions. When we communicate we tend to ground comparisons using other examples we hope the other person will understand. Long and athletic are arbitrary and abstract. Long and athletic like Rudy Gay aid in disambiguating loosely defined concepts. Saying Wes might turn into a player “like” Bruce Bowen isn’t degrading to Bruce Bowen. A) It’s a compliment because Bruce Bowen, while being largely portrayed as a dirty Chach, was an excellent defender, and seemed to be a great team player, and B) provides an analog for the other person (or other people) to understand what that person means when they use a loosely defined concepts like “great” and “defender”.
To your second point utilising an example from the Houston game; it’s difficult to work at the instance level because at some point, in the NBA everyone gets beat. Two games ago Kobe got caught guarding Shannon Brown at the three point line and slid over to defend the crossover dribble penetration, as he did so Brown spun back around and took the ball to the hole while Kobe was riding him (and giving him a forearm) the whole way. After watching that play, one can only come to one conclusion; Kobe is the worst defender EVER. No one falls for that anymore. The fact is, this is the NBA. If you are on the wing, and you are not allowed to hand check anymore (thanks Detroit) you are more than likely going to get beat now and then.
Who, on our current roster, would you have rather been defending in that situation? Beasley? Ok, that would have ended in a dunk. Williams? Dunk and 1. Webster? Foul. I’m not sure if it would have been before or after the shot, but it would have been a foul. And on and on.
SnPs post was highlighting just how bad Wes’ numbers are this year using Jonny as an analog BTW so that his numbers were reified to something we should all understand. That’s fine. It’s been absolutely craptacular. Thanks for rubbing it in SnP!!! Not only do have to watch it but then I have to choose to read about it!! %%%%%% My concern with this approach is, there are always inconsistencies when trying to predict the future based on past events. After Jordan’s second year one could have argued that he was a ball hog and injury prone and his style of play was not conducive to winning a championship. I know that’s a ridiculous over-exaggeration, and no doubt people will point out that Jordan was still younger than Wes at this point in his career…but all I’m trying to illustrate is that people change, they mature, they grow, whatever.
Can’t it be possible that people aren’t necessarily “defending” Wes as much as they are excited that we have an actual credentialed coach who has been known for getting the most out of his players? This guy has taught players how to use their athletic gifts his entire coaching career. Is it really that much of a stretch to think that 1 out of the 5 or 6 athletically talented but challenged individuals might actually listen to him and learn to use one or two of those tools instead of letting them sit in the toolbox, unused? Further, is it that far fetched that the person with arguably the most physical gifts on the team could benefit the most from said coach? Is it that far fetched to think that it has taken 30 games or so to de-Rambis some of these guys in a strike shortened year with no training camp?
It’s blinding optimism versus deafening pessimism. Is there no one that thinks there can be a middle ground? Not a middle ground between Wes and Bruce Bowen, but a middle ground between what we trot out on the court now and the best of what Adelman has ever created…moulded….sculpted…in his HoF coaching career.
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
by nodnarb on Feb 19, 2012 12:43 AM CST up reply actions 9 recs
Yeah.
Rec’d.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 1:20 AM CST up reply actions
+1
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 2:11 AM CST up reply actions
the problem with this is that there is no "middle" between two arbitrary points
also, the point of posts like this is not to predict what will happen with wes; rather, to place a bet on what will not happen with wes.
There is absolutely a middle between two arbitrary points
it just means the middle is also arbitrary (or meaningless, as you said).
I thought the point of your post was to illustrate just how historically bad Wes’ numbers are this year in comparison to two other Twolf favourites (%) Flynn and Sasha. When I read something like this, in the context of this environment, I think two things: A) you have indeed brought to my attention just how bad our starting SF’s numbers are…in triplicate, and B) you are creating the allusion that all those people who get hyped about Wes after a good game should probably temper their enthusiasm a bit and visit earth again in the near future.
As for your comment about predictions versus betting; Whether it’s formalised or not (i.e., stated explicitly), a person does base their bets on what they think will happen, which is their own prediction. Whether it based on hope, statistics, or anal horseshoes, by putting money on Red 32 a person is stating they are predicting the roulette ball will land on Red 32. You are saying you think something will (or won’t) happen based on your predictions and you are willing to bet someone else who thinks otherwise.
To be clear, I enjoy reading posts like this because I don’t look at player statistics (and variances) regularly and I don’t often realise how someone stacks up (statistically) to someone else. Unfortunately, because I don’t write them I have to accept the good (Pek vs Howard) with the bad (Wes vs Jonny). It’s also unfortunate that they are both valid…
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
Well, I’m not sure you disagree with the meaningless middle bit. This is the same basic problem as placing a particular bit of policy on a continuum between “left” and “right”. It’s just random geometry because issues and players exist on several different axises. Yeah, a geographic middle exists as a matter of a dot in between two points but it is meaningless and made up in terms of being a useful plot of land or a worthwhile destination. This makes way for some of the most BS nonsense seen in public debate: portray the two “sides” to an argument as extreme and then conveniently place one’s own view in the “middle” as a “sensible” attempt at resolution. This isn’t “blinding optimism versus deafening pessimism”. Either he does something or he doesn’t. There are no extra points for how we feel about it.
As for the predictive stuff, I don’t know what else to say except that predictions about what will happen vs. what will likely not happen are two hugely different things. I have no idea how Wes will play out but I do have a much better sense of how he won’t play out.
I doubt you'll even read this now, but I'll respond just...because I said I was going to
I think I agree with what you getting at in your political analog. I agree with my interpretation of what you said at least. And I’m going to go no further then that right now because I have to make a conscious effort to not get into political-type discussions because it FUCKING PISSES ME OFF!!!! …and it takes me a good long while to calm down afterwards.
I will say that I absolutely was not attempting to find a middle ground and assuage the vehemence of the opinions here. I was trying to offer another viewpoint (different, separate). It all boils (boiled?) down to the fact that Wes’ numbers suck this year. They suck harder than last year. But we have a coach and Wes (to stick with the topic of the thread) has wicked ridiculous athleticism. Even though he appears to not want anything to do with being focused and aggressive…or anything approaching better, I want to see if Adelman and Co. can teach him…anything, and get him out of this world of suck. Or, failing that, can Adelman trick him into being a player? It’s been said before. It’s played out. That’s really, ultimately, what I was getting at. I think I’m actually still in shock that Adelman is the coach. Seriously. I have tanker trucks of Kool-Aid…with more scheduled!
As for the predictions part…I was just being nit-picky. I was highly caffeinated at the time, and I thought it was prudent to point out that you had stated:
the point of posts like this is not to predict what will happen with wes; rather, to place a bet on what will not happen with wes.
and I was trying to convey that whether a person is betting on something being true, or that thing being false, it is still rooted in some form of prediction (as a mental construct of a hypothetical future) even if it isn’t explicitly stated. It’s not a big deal. It’s very meta. err….meta-meta I suppose.
I’m very meh on it now. Holy crap do we need a competent wing. Two even!!!
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
The "on our current roster" bit is what we're talking about, here.
Who, on our current roster, would you have rather been defending in that situation? Beasley? Ok, that would have ended in a dunk. Williams? Dunk and 1. Webster? Foul. I’m not sure if it would have been before or after the shot, but it would have been a foul. And on and on.
This is really a discussion about the Wolves’ need to take action with respect to their wing slots. It’s not about a grudge against Wes Johnson. The team needs to address the sinkhole it has at the SG and SF slots, rather than sitting on its hands wondering if Wes Johnson will buck the odds.
With a player like Wes is right now, you don’t develop or help anyone by force-feeding him minutes because the rest of your roster also sucks at his spot. If you’re keeping Wes, you make moves to plug the immediate hole and then ask him to earn his time. Or you can move him. Either way the team has to address SG and SF, because the situation is costing games.
(We’ve just heard our POBO in multiple interviews saying he doesn’t see the need to move until the offseason. That begs threads like this. I’d like it if I trusted the front office to see things accurately, so that they understood the tradeoffs they were making.)
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
by feral on Feb 19, 2012 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
This is obvious. I don't think anyone on this board would argue that we don't need an upgrade at the wings.
But, again, Wes is the best we have right now.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 9:49 AM CST up reply actions
Actually Wes is the worst...
Though Beasley and Webster have both struggled they are much better options, which is saying a lot because they both are still producing at a below average level. I imagine he isn’t playing Beasley moreso because he, at times, just isn’t a team player who doesn’t seem to care about defense and not playing Webster because he is coming back from a pretty serious injury. Adelman is literally giving the team’s worst option the most minutes of this group.
Absolutely
and anyone who has watched the timberwolves this year knows that (unfortunately this includes apposing team’s GMs).
One of the major issues is that this team does not have a shooting guard. DOES NOT HAVE ONE!! If we did have someone in that role, who actually was that thing (for example: Monta Ellis, KMart, OJ Mayo), then the role of guys like Wes and Beasley becomes more defined and likely much less scrutinised.
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
I really don't think Wes is asked to do that much, I just don't think he's good at the bit he's asked to do.
If this team did have an actual sg I really don’t see Wes role changing at all.
That's what I was getting at.
If we had a scoring option on the wing (at the 2) then Wes could (in theory) focus on playing defence on the better of the two opposing wings and not worry (i.e., get heavily scrutinised) for not scoring a ton.
If not him, then we would have a clearly defined role for a player. We would need a Trenton Hassell / Bruce Bowen… or strike me down for saying it…Corey Brewer type player. Wes (or someone else) could try to be THAT.
Reason is the first victim of strong emotion.
Tiago Splitter was injured today
could be out a while. Pek might get his chance to replace him?
"David Kahn doesn't like it, so I'm going to keep it." - Kevin Love on growing his beard.
There are hard, analytic statistics
and then there is the good ol’ fashioned eye test and i’ll be damned if my eye don’t reckon me a star in tha makin, by god
by Dr_Defecate on Feb 18, 2012 10:21 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Jonny more bad than Wes
Only because Jonny had the ball more and had Kurt Rambis not adjusting at all. And we have other good players now to make up for a Wes.
Ok, that’s 3 things and I said Only.
I know Jonny got hurt and all but the last Only is that he doesn’t even see the floor now. Maybe Wes wouldn’t too if Wolves had more options, I suppose.
Both seem to have a mental issue — Wes, too little confidence and Jonny unfounded confidence when he was pre-injury bad as a Wolf.
That’s my last only.
signature
(Rambis didn't adjust – except by keeping Jonny on the bench.)
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
I think that the more important
issue with Wes is that he is single-handedly breaking the sophomore injury jinx that plagued the Wolves for years.
Waiting for Relevancy...
I was going to say "half empty"
You can't...dust...for vomit.
more like 'not completely dry'
by TO12 on Feb 19, 2012 11:58 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder...
considering the interest many of the forum had on picking up Smith, undeniably a talented offensive threat but an equally unquestioned head case; has anyone ever suggested picking up Al Thornton? There are lots of reasons this would option would be shakey… low BBIQ, highest among them, but his defense and assists did improve with GState, and he had some moments with Washington. What he can do is score. No question. He is currently recovering from a knee injury, but his rehab is ending and he will be looking to get back into the league soon. His fall from grace, Clipper first option to oft traded bench extra may have given him some food for thought concerning his shortcomings. Decided shortcomings indeed, however there was never much question about his offensive productivity. I know there are myriad reasons why not, but are there other reasons why?
Actually, stats between the two
are similar, with Thornton slightly leading in most areas. Thornton does however score more effectively, and way more often. His three point shooting is weak, that goes to Wes, but he gets to the foul line more and is better from there. Perhaps more importantly, he’s had time to consider the whys of his drop-off. He’s got to realize that he’s not the wunderkind he once was. Maybe he’s now smart enough to compensate in those weaker areas. He might be grateful just to get back into the league, and so be willing to do whatever a coach might ask.
My biggest concern...
…about the Wolves right now is what I’m hearing Papa Glen’s view is of the team right now. All the rumblings I’ve heard here and through a couple buddies who work with the team is that he doesn’t see the need to make a big trade.
Glen even still trusts Kahn to some degree to still being worthwhile to listen to on basketball decisions. Make no mistake about it, Kahn still resents the fact that Jonny didn’t work out and will do everything he can to give Wes as much time as he can.
As for all of those Wes defenders who ripped my last post, I’m a partial season ticket holder and have been for the past three seasons. I love this team but am incredibly sick and tired of watching horrific wing play cost us a playoff spot. I find myself going to Target Center and having names scroll through my head of guys who would probably be awesome here. Maybe I’m the only one who tortures themselves by doing that.
Yeah I doubt it
That post sounds scarily accurate to how I thought Glen and Kahn feel about the whole thing.
I mean, is it necessary to make a move this year? I don’t know. But we need to make a move at some point.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
The problem...
…is their window to make a meaningful wing addition is basically this trade deadline and this summer. After that, because of Love’s contract (which he obviously deserves) and the fact that Glen will not use the amnesty we will not have much cap space at all to work with. Also, Pek is an unrestricted free agent after next season and if the DeAndre Jordan/Marc Gasol/Nene contracts have taught us anything is that Pek could be playing his way into a four-year, $50 million deal. That’s why there needs to be urgency to make a couple of good moves at the trade deadline and this summer.
One of my friends who’s around Target Center everyday told me he’s convinced the “plan” is to keep what they have and make the qualifying offers to Beasley and Randolph and pick up the option on Martell in the name of flexibility and letting the roster “grow.” So, my worry is that is actually an option and we see a team that should be a top-4 contender in the West wallow in barely making the playoffs and having frustrating exits.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
That's dumb if true. I wish we had a real GM/Owner combo.
Also, I’m pretty sure Pek is an RFA.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
I think so
He signed for 4 years
by TO12 on Feb 19, 2012 12:00 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
If the extend qualifying offers to Beas and Randolph then I give up!!!
This offseason is set up perfectly to have cap space and to pick up real, contributing players to a roster with a nice core (Rubio, Love, Pek). But only if they let go of all of Kahn’s signature, singular, transcendent, potentiating, (insert adj. of choice) moves. Randolph, Beas and Martell must go. Darko or Wes should be amnestied. MIller bought out.
That is enough space for a huge offer to Batum as an RFA (~13 mill), and a average 2 – Courtney Lee would be my target – defends well and decent mid-range game with 3 point range.
To round out the roster you have M. Lee, Ellington, Barea, Luke, DWill, Wes, + 2 more.
Beas and Randolph qualifying offers makes absolutely no sense, we are so close to being a contender. I hope Adelman is making his case right now, by not playing some guys very much. Beas and Randolph should not be part of long term plans, at their current price. Maybe if they want to take a paycut.
One question long term is can you pay a core of Rubio, Love, Pek and hopefully Batum (or awesome wing player) about $50M/year. Thats what it would take, I think, especially if Pek keeps playing this way? I don’t know enough about the cap situation. If Papa Glen is that worried about it and just wants to keep players because they are cheap, fine. But Beas and Randolph are not cheap for there level of production…
by Pass the rock on Feb 19, 2012 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
Good teams understand that a handful of players make the coin
For the Wolves, they can have the core 4-5 making ~50 million. The key for them is avoiding the tax as I don’t think Taylor is ever going to be a tax paying team again. If he’s willing to dance near the line than the Wolves can certainly pay the core and supplement around them and stay under the tax.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
I can't find the info...
On whether or not Pek is restricted or unrestricted but considering he signed under the old CBA and Marc Gasol was restricted in a similar contract structure so I hope Pek would be restricted too. However, even if he is restricted if he keeps playing well he’s going to get a huge offer sheet like DeAndre got.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 12:09 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
One of the things that has been really surprising to learn/see...
….over the years doing this site is just how differently people who own/run the team view the franchise compared to fans.
Glen is a pretty loyal dude and he knows these players. Each year at mini-camp he busses the team down to Mankato for a lasagna dinner. He has Mike Beasley’s kid on his lap before a game. He likes to talk about basketball with basketball players. Firm handshakes and looking people in the eye. That sort of thing.
He also gets to sit courtside and have lots of very high rolling people do business at the Target Center. It’s a status thing and it’s a high end hobby horse.
For the people in the front office there are office politics, egos, the needs/wants of the business department vs. the basketball ops, competing scouting viewpoints, etc.
There are lots of motives over there, sometimes competing ones. They view the squad in different ways than do the fans and these ways don’t always match up with actual winning basketball. This isn’t to say that they don’t think winning is important; rather, that they have a bit more skin in the game and I don’t think it’s completely irrational for someone like Kahn to want to stick with his guys in order to be “right” on some level.
I do think twgm12 hits it close to the mark with Glen and Kahn not wanting to do anything. If we step back for a second and look at where this team is, I’m sure Kahn has made a pitch to Papa Glen that has this season going according to plan. Instead of viewing this as a team that could be in this year’s playoffs with the addition of a wing, Glen sees 5-7 years of putrid money losing awfulness melting away into filled stands and little additional cost. I’m sure Kahn is telling Glen that Wes has all these wonderful athletic tools and its just a matter of time before Adelman turns him into the next awesome Adelman wing player. As much as I disagree with this take, I don’t think it is unreasonable, especially for the way Glen might be looking at the franchise.
This is plausible
And frustrating. I don’t get the patience strategy by default. The team should have a real, active and dynamic view of the value of their players and others available in the league. Sometimes patience pays off, but I don’t believe it is successful as the only strategy, waiting for options to expire worthless rather than trading out of them and missing out on other valuable opportunities as you wait it out.
It’s like waiting to see which girl is still available the night of the prom and realizing anybody worth having already has a date and the ones that are available are undesirable.
FYI — JR Smith has 3 3’s, 2 rebs, 1 asst, 1stl, in Q1 today.
by PoohRichardson on Feb 19, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Everything i've heard from...
…my buddy about how things operate makes me want to cancel my tickets. It really is a compliment to how awesome Love and Rubio (and now Pek) that I love going and will keep my tickets as long as they’re here.
Tonight I’ll probably spend the first quarter wondering how good Courtney Lee would be on this team and if we could somehow get him from the Rockets. Maybe this is why my buddies drink at the game.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 12:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Glen's huge achilles heel is "loyalty."
It’s so, so high on his list of traits, to the point where it’s so broadly applied – he’s “loyal” to Troy Hudson, and signs his deal after the injury provisions are struck down by the league – that it’s not clearly a virtue at all.
Loyalty doesn’t mean short-circuiting decisions. Being “loyal” to your advisors doesn’t mean you don’t ask intelligent and sometimes pointed questions about their assumptions.
“Loyalty” has led to a kind of sleepwalking passivity at several moments in team history. Including, perhaps, this one.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
Part of why its so hard to root for this team
A lot of the decisions over the running of this franchise have been easy to make but they take 10x longer than they need to because of how out owner runs the team.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
I dunno
I think this is how he’s gonna get Rubio, Love, or Pek to stay in Minny long term. it’s tough for folks that aren’t from Minny to stay in Minny.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
As Chris Webber would say, "Good luck."
If in a full year we’re still watching Wes Johnson start and play like this because Glen’s “loyal,” you think that’s a selling point? KG got frustrated despite several “loyal” over-signings of people like T-Hud around him.
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
The reason players don't want to play here isn't the location or the weather
Or at least I don’t think it is. The reason is that the organization has been a laughingstock for much of its existence, so players don’t have any confidence they will put a successful team together.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
How can you say...
…Papa Glen is doing all of this so guys will stay in Minny long term when he had the opportunity to sign Love for five years but chose to give him four with a player ETO?
Also, even with three awesome basketball players in Love, Rubio and Pek this team isn’t a contender until they acquire much better wing players.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 2:30 PM CST up reply actions
Also...
The rumbling around Target Center is the team will be close to profitable this year. I don’t know if that would help things or make it worse though.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 12:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I can really see Kahn's argument
That his job this season is done. They are winning more. There seems to be an identity and core in place to build around. Adelman can coach. As much as we want a wing this year, I understand that patience can be accepted for now.
But, if the plan for the offseason is to hang tight and let this current group grow again next season, I think that is a mistake. Adelman seems to have made some choices with how he feels about the roster. I imagine his opinion matters.
This offseason is an opportunity. I think a strong wing player may look at our team as a great option and may actually want to be here. The time to jump is the offseason, and maybe not right now.
Unlike others, I am okay with Wes playing out this season. I for one, hope he continue’s to be just horrible. Then Glen/Kahn’s hand might be forced to do the right thing.
by Pass the rock on Feb 19, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
I think there's some timidity involved in this POV as well.
I’m sure Taylor has nightmares about the financial risks he took to try and keep the WCF team rolling. Now, those are risks that he won’t take anymore. He’s happy to buy into DK’s (unwarranted) confidence in personnel matters because it soothes his fear.
Reminds me of former Cornhusker coach Tom Osbourne. With the “national championship” (%% – major college FB is a joke for determining the title winner) on the line in the ’84 Orange Bowl, Coach Tom made the decision to go for a 2-pt conversion and the win – a gusty call that unfortunately ended up being no good and cost the Huskers at least a share of the title. I never remembered Osbourne taking a risk like that again.
"Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously."
— Hunter S. Thompson
If this is the intended plan of action...
then I guess it’s time to start the “Kevin Love leaves” countdown clock. Randolph, Beas, and Webster?? Does Papa Glen really think this way, or does DK have embarrassing photos, e-mails, etc.??
"Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously."
— Hunter S. Thompson
The elephant in the room
Wes the Mess works out with Kobe in the off season, obviously it’s all Kobe’s fault.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
in other news
i can’t believe i’m rooting FOR the mavs against the knicks. so sick of lin and NYC bandwagon fans.
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
That flagrant foul was horrible
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
I am sick of it too...
And I live in Boston and played pick-up with Jeremy. Nice guy and I am rooting for him, but this hype is annoying as media tends to be. They get under my skin. Maybe deep down I’ve just become a Bostonian and hate all things NYC.
But, I will never stop loving the Twolves, no matter how they are managed
by Pass the rock on Feb 19, 2012 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
is it ironic that all-state got Lebron to be the spokesperson...
…for their ad campaign extolling higher education???
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
lol
I see your point. But if every little kid wants to be LeBron, then it’s going to get a lot of ears.
by TO12 on Feb 19, 2012 12:46 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
"go to college..."
“…unless you’re a mutant, like me.”
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
"go to college..." aside
If anyone is looking for a liberal, liberal arts education, Antioch College is back up and running and offering free tuition. Definitely not for everyone, but a nice opportunity for someone who values things differently and needs to be thrifty, check it out.
"pokin' the animals at the Canis Hoopus zoo"
by pastyearsears on Feb 19, 2012 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
Couple things
First, Lin looks really good. Actually, he has similar qualities to Rubio—very smart, creative, competitive, good hands. He doesn’t quite have the same quality handle, and isn’t as good a defender (though he does work and disrupt), but he’s a better finisher.
Second, J.R. Smith. Look, it was 1 quarter, and he made 3s. But here’s the thing: he’s confident and he doesn’t hesitate. Some nights that hurts you, but not this quarter.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 19, 2012 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
jr smith just seems like the biggest douche
he has that smirk on his face CONSTANTLY. arrgh
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 12:42 PM CST up reply actions
I don't care
He’s confident and makes shots.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 19, 2012 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
sorry about the broken record
He basically was thrown off the Hornets after numerous disputes with Byron Scott. He was suspended in the playoffs by coach George Karl for refusing to run team plays. He was cited with a felony in a fatal car accident. He was suspended by the league for 10 games in a brawl with the Knicks. The NBA suspended him another time in a nightclub brawl. In China, he feuded with team officials and his sister got into a brawl with fans in the stands. Sam Smith
The guy can ball. I don’t know if he can drive the lane, but he can ball. but is Minny the place for his 4th and 5th chance?
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
You're right...
…why have a player who would be awesome here in JR Smith when we can have the suckitude of Wes Johnson? %
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions
because there are literally only two choices.
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
You...
…are probably giving the front office too much credit in thinking they can identify and acquire a player who fits with what this team needs. The thing about JR Smith is he was literally there for the taking and would fit perfectly into what we need at the two guard spot.
It’s so Minnesotan to not like a guy because he has swagger or hasn’t been a perfect citizen. JR Smith to you is like Royce White was to Joel Maturi.
by twolvesgm2012 on Feb 19, 2012 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
i'm not minnesotan.
and i guess there really ARE only two choices!!!
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 2:50 PM CST up reply actions
Just more info
admitted driving an SUV through a stop sign and colliding with a car in June 2007. Bell (his buddy) later died from his injuries, and another passenger in the SUV and a woman driving the car were injured but recovered. the data recorder in Smith’s vehicle showed he was driving 67 miles per hour in a spot where the speed limit was 35 mph. Both Smith and Bell were ejected from the vehicle after impact.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
What does that have to do with the price of tea or the fact we need a shooting guard?
I get it, he made a mistake. So has JJ Redick. I’d take them both, thank you.
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Feb 19, 2012 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
I never said that he wouldn't be a good fit on the team
I just wanted to put a summary of the extra-curriculars out there.
This site is metrics based. I just like putting non-stat info out there
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, thank you for putting up the thing that countless others have put up.
eyeroll.
By the by, that incident seems to have had a great impact on Smith’s maturity.
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Feb 19, 2012 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
if I put something out there like a fatality - I just wanted to put a somewhat fair summary out there
rather than just calling him a douche, I wanted to show that he has a history of repeatedly making poor questionable decisions. he even has recent issues this year.
I believe that folks should get a second shot. I even posted on CH that he deserved an interview. he deserved a look.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
is it inaccurate to infer that he still has judgment issues?
- even after all the millions and millions of dollars he made in the NBA, I’m inferring that he still have trouble managing his money bc a) he played in China & b) he recently chose the team that offered the most dough. is that a poor guess?
- he recently had issues in China.
- he had douche-like tendencies as recently as last year in Denver.
like I said, I think he deserved an interview. but the history shows that he still has CURRENT problems making decisions.
without actually interviewing him, he still sounds like a douche to me.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_tv/2012/01/28/20120128_jr_smith_china.nba/index.html
- on one hand, he shows some maturity by being open to new experiences by playing in China.
- on the other, he still sounds like a douche. dude, no one “forced” you to go play in China and freely choose to take their money.
i think he may have grown up a bit, but he still has douche-like qualities.
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
oops
http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_tv/2012/01/28/20120128_jr_smith_china.nba/index.html
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
when that player is on your team and hitting shots, yay for them.
when that player starts to go wrong, that shit is absolutely toxic. i dunno. maybe it’s my lutheran upbringing or something, but swagger drives me absolutely bonkers.
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
Lin is fun to watch, for sure
For comparing the two, I think Rubio has better court vision, better rebounder, is a smarter player and plays better D. Lin has a better shot right now (his career stats say he’s a bad shooter but maybe he a had a good summer), better at driving, that’s about it.
I’ll be interested to see if Lin implodes with TO’s this game
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 12:42 PM CST up reply actions
I'm enjoying how Lin already gets superstar calls.
Makes sense. %
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Feb 19, 2012 2:15 PM CST up reply actions
He traveled at the end of the first on that floater but other than that its been pretty fair
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
He got a joke And1 at some point when nobody touched him.
And he just buried a three….he’s good on offense, that’s for sure.
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Feb 19, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions
He's killer from that spot
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 2:25 PM CST up reply actions
seriously, how much help have the knicks gotten from the refs this game?
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 2:30 PM CST up reply actions
Marquette represent!
OMG is Steve Novak doing my alma mater proud in the Knicks game! MSG is freakin’ nutz right now. pretty cool.
I too am a lone wolfpack.
That 3 ball by Lin was gatdamn amazing
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
Novak's emmergence has been obviously overlooked cause of Lin, but he's definitely been helpful for their turnaround here.
He could always shoot, obviously. But finally figured out how to play acceptable D, acceptable enough to stay on the floor.
by googoleeoottooooleeoottooooleeeatta on Feb 19, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions
All he has to do is play better defense than Amare
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions
i fucking can't believe the calls going NYK way at the end of this game
Lin getting more ref respect than Dirk? come on. fucking bullshit.
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
Jeez, jealous much?
Lin just dominated that game. He was great. Yeah, he holds it too much sometimes and turns it over, but he makes a ton of plays, they put huge pressure on him, he always has the ball in his hands, and he was just the biggest factor in a big win over a hot and clicking Mavs team.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 19, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Sure he was amazing
Doesn’t change the fact that Dirk was getting mugged during the 4th and they didn’t call anything on NYK
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 2:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
absolutely. that's what i'm saying.
not to take too much credit from Lin—he looked great—but the refs let the knicks’ D manhandle the mavs at the end of the game and were whistle-happy on the other end of the court. definitely momentum reffing.
http://www.davechisholmmusic.com
by davechisholm on Feb 19, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
Bc a 7 footer that shoots fadeaway jump shots is the key to unlocking revenue from billions of potential Chinese Nikes?
This is my opinion and does not constitute an endorsement, opinion or official position of the U.S. Army.
by ronatcampzama on Feb 19, 2012 2:38 PM CST up reply actions
The relentless, faithful and sometimes brilliant effort to defend Johnson...
With the number we have in our hands only can be viewed as the measure of the problem we have in the wings.
We are screwed. Plain and simple.
In any other team of the globe people would be throwing a name: “Replace him with …”
We need an upgrade, yeah
Just have to deal with it for now.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 19, 2012 5:46 PM CST up reply actions

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