Quarterly WP48 report for the 2011-12 Wolves (through 33 games)
by skelman on Feb 22, 2012 12:17 PM CST
Email
PrintHere's a quarterly WP48 report on the Wolves. WP48 is a per minute statistic based on what wins NBA games (wins produced per 48 mins). The higher the better. An average player should have a WP48 of 0.100. A team of 5 average players playing 48 minutes will accumulate a total of .5 Wins in a game, and over a season, should win ~50% of their games. For more on Wins Produced and WP48, go here: http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/
These stats are from www.thenbageek.com; thanks for the great resource!
The season is 66 games, so that's 33 for a half, and 16/17 for a quarter. Here's the Wolves WP48 breakdown at the 16 game mark:
- Rubio is great, and Williams also playing really good for a rookie.
- Kevin Love is playing good, but not even close to last years efficiency.
- Wayne Ellington playing surprisingly well at the 2 for the Wolves at this point.
- Wes is so-so, and Beasley is just awful. He's really killing the team at this point.
Now lets look at the second quarter of the season. ("Diff" is difference in WP48 from 1st quarter of the season vs. the 2nd quarter.) Games 17-33 (for 17 games total):
2nd Quarter of the season Noteworthy WP48 points:
- Pek has been INSANELY good and pek-fficient. He's carrying the team up as most of the other players are bringing them down.
- Rubio has played worse. There, I said it. Teams are coming after him and he hasn't been as great. Can he pick it up?
- Williams has struggled with fewer minutes and hesitant play in the 2nd quarter of the season. He's shown he can have really good games as well.
- Wes and Luke have played worse (with significant minutes) as the season has gone on :(.
- Love has been getting better, but still not to last year's awesomeness. I'd love to have Love from last year (more Rebounds, less 3PA).
- Beasley has been good! Wow, that's good news - unless we trade him. He's picked up his play as he's taken on a kind of 6th man role. He's trying to pass the ball more and it's showing up in better efficiency. Good job Mike.
And here's the season totals for the Wolves:
Here's most of those numbers in table format for easy copy/paste:
| TOTAL 33 Games | 1st | 16 | GMs | 2nd | 17 | GMs | ||||||
| MIN | WP48 | GP | MP | Wins | WP48 | GP | MP | Wins | WP48 | |||
| Anthony Randolph | 219 | 0.080 | 12 | 151 | 0.16 | 0.051 | 6 | 68 | 0.20 | 0.141 | ||
| Anthony Tolliver | 438 | -0.021 | 16 | 344 | 0.20 | 0.028 | 9 | 94 | -0.39 | -0.199 | ||
| Brad Miller | 41 | -0.235 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 6 | 41 | -0.20 | -0.234 | ||
| Darko Milicic | 370 | -0.043 | 16 | 296 | -0.18 | -0.029 | 6 | 74 | -0.15 | -0.097 | ||
| Derrick Williams | 607 | 0.096 | 16 | 304 | 0.91 | 0.144 | 17 | 303 | 0.30 | 0.048 | ||
| Jose Barea | 345 | 0.014 | 6 | 112 | 0.02 | 0.009 | 11 | 233 | 0.08 | 0.016 | ||
| Kevin Love | 1241 | 0.258 | 16 | 628 | 2.78 | 0.212 | 15 | 613 | 3.89 | 0.305 | ||
| Luke Ridnour | 975 | 0.085 | 16 | 514 | 1.32 | 0.123 | 15 | 461 | 0.40 | 0.042 | ||
| Martell Webster | 245 | 0.018 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 14 | 245 | 0.09 | 0.018 | ||
| Michael Beasley | 580 | 0.016 | 7 | 222 | -0.54 | -0.117 | 15 | 358 | 0.73 | 0.098 | ||
| Nikola Pekovic | 577 | 0.297 | 7 | 90 | 0.11 | 0.059 | 17 | 487 | 3.47 | 0.342 | ||
| Ricky Rubio | 1153 | 0.184 | 16 | 516 | 2.62 | 0.244 | 17 | 637 | 1.79 | 0.135 | ||
| Wayne Ellington | 451 | 0.062 | 14 | 292 | 0.94 | 0.155 | 12 | 159 | -0.35 | -0.106 | ||
| Wesley Johnson | 704 | -0.040 | 16 | 370 | -0.07 | -0.009 | 16 | 334 | -0.51 | -0.073 | ||
| Totals/Avg | 7946 | 0.106 | 16 | 3839 | 8.27 | 0.103 | 17 | 4107 | 9.35 | 0.109 |
Thanks for reading.
Discuss.
20 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Awesome post.
Leads me to wonder why Adolph the Grey ain’t getting more burn. He’s doing more to contribute than many (more than .1). Not sure what he’s doing/not doing outside of the games that keeps him off the floor. It’s not as though the squad has a plethora of guys who are contributing above average.
My guess at why Randolph is not on the floor
- Plays PF, along with 1/2 the rest of the roster. Too light to defend C’s despite great height/length.
- Gets lost defensively
- Black hole on offense who insists upon taking bad jump shots
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 22, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
Even though I've started to cite WP/48 at times
you have to question any aggregate stat that positively rates Anthony Randolph this season. The only positive things I can remember him doing are alley oops.
Follow me on Twitter @timallenonline
Small Sample Size on Randolph
Randolph’s season score is .080, which is slightly below average. In games 16-33, his score is up, but he only played 68 minutes during that time period, one-tenth of the minutes Rubio played. It’s unlikely he was facing meaningful competition.
This is why
I wish other stats gave error bars like adjusted plus/minus. I dislike WS/48 anyway, but I’d like it, PER and other similar stats more if they acknowledged the inherent randomness that could be influencing the results.
Epistemic closure means never having to admit you're wrong.
by Spouting Opinions on Feb 22, 2012 9:53 PM CST up reply actions
He can hit those nice little shots from close (that aren't dunks).
But in general, I agree that Randolph is kind of puzzling stats-wise.
Defense
Randolph is so athletic but moves his feet so slowly on defense.
Nice post
Good read, makes an interesting debate about the enigma know as B-Easy
by WolvesBigTicket on Feb 22, 2012 1:18 PM CST reply actions
Can Beasley be consistent?
He had one huge game (vs. HOU) that propped up his second quarter WP48, but he’s also had a handful of near .100WP48 games, which is promising.
It seems like he truly is looking to pass more and has attacked the rim more often. He just had such a terrible start to the season it had to get a little better. If he can keep these latest trends up he’ll have a pretty solid season.
Just like there’s pressure for Melo to blend in with Lin, Beasley is probably feeling similar pressure to blend in with Rubio since we’ve had so much success with him. Yes, I realize this isn’t New York.
Random observation on Beas...
Has anyone else noticed that he’s seems much less comfortable shooting the ball when no one is near him (i.e. the wide open 3 pointer)? He’ll even do a little half hearted ball fake when no one is within 10ft of him. The only reason I think this matters is that he is a well above average 3 point shooter so far this year and he often dribbles into a worse shot in the mid-range or a bad contested shot in the lane. How do you get a guy more comfortable with wide open shots? Strange problem.
Maybe he could start by taking warmups somewhat seriously
When I’ve gone to early enough to see the warmups he screws around most of the time, shooting super-rainbows over and over, or shooting right handed threes.
I like the guy, and I like his goofy oddball traits, but only so far as they don’t prevent him from getting better.
+1
I went to the knicks game early and watched warm ups. He spent 80% of the time shooting half court shots. Seriously? I was shocked. I know its the NBA but how does RA not say something?
PS. Maybe it was only that game but you could tell the fans do NOT like Beasley.
by dontTradeAaronNelson! on Feb 22, 2012 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
Great stuff
Love the graphs – makes it very easy to see who is helping, who is not, and which way they are trending.
I was worried that Rubio’s shooting early on was not sustainable and he’d regress to the mean. But I’m surprised his assists are down lately. I wonder if it is because of scouting, less PnR, or just the team’s overall inability to make shots.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
Maybe if the Wolves could make an open three
He’d have 5 more assists a game. I’d like to see stats on that…SHBA (should have been assists).
by Jordan Seiffert on Feb 22, 2012 3:22 PM CST up reply actions
I know all NBA PGs make passes to guys that miss shots
But Rubio has to be up there in creating wide, wide open looks from 3 that aren’t converted. NBA wings ought to be shooting 60%+ on shots that are that open (anyone have stats on wide open shooting percentages?).
Not 5 more...
Maybe 1 or 2 more, right? I mean that would still be pretty significant, but 5 more assists a game would be crazy.
Doesn’t the PA100 rating take into consideration the expected point output per “potential assist”? I can’t remember the specifics, but I think it was considered in vj’s analysis.
You could call them "Assist Attempts"
AA. Just like shot attempts.
So the assist line for rubio would look like this, A 9/21
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Jrue Holiday attacked, attacked, attacked, and the Sixers won Game 6 (VIDEO)
- Could the ‘Shaquille O’Neal-as-Orlando GM’ story have come from … Shaq?
- Behind the Box Score, where the Philadelphia 76ers refuse to go quietly. If at all
- Allen Iverson presented the game ball for Sixers’ Game 6, talked about his future (VIDEO)
- Can the Lakers improve with Kobe Bryant making $30 million?
