3PT Shooting Problems: Exception or Rule? (With Poll)
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 22, 2012 11:21 AM CST
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PrintDid Kurt Rambis do a better job at getting guys to make 3s than Rick Adelman is doing? More below the jump.
Obviously not. But I'm starting to wonder what the situation is. Zach Harper at AWOW is imploring them to stop shooting them (with Eric in Madison voicing his dissent). They're currently 24th in the league in 3PT%. It's debatable how much that's affected their record, though the eye test seems to indicate that better outside shooting in more than a few games could've made a difference. It's also not necessary to be a great outside shooting team and win, as the Lakers, Knicks, and Jazz are showing.
It is strange, however, considering that most of these guys are below their career averages, even when factoring in some growing pains (Love's first 2 seasons):
Beasley: '11-12 42.6, career 35.8
Love: '11-12 35.3, career 36.6
Ridnour: '11-12 33.0, career 35.9
Ellington: '11-12 35.6, career 39.0
Tolliver: '11-12 27.6, career 33.4
Barea: '11-12 30.8, career 35.1
Webster: '11-12 27.6, career 37.5
This doesn't even factor in Johnson (21.3) and Williams (23.9), neither of whom have enough experience to indicate whether these are part of larger trends.
Is there an Adelman effect? Unlikely. Peja Stojakovic's % beyond the arc was lower with other teams than Sacto when in his prime; Mike Bibby's were better near the tail end of his usefulness in Atlanta, but he was mainly a spot-up shooter at that point; Terry Porter's best came ages 36-38 with the Spurs, but that's more due to his role; Clyde Drexler was better in Houston but had Hakeem; Doug Christie was better in Sacto than Toronto but was also on a better squad; Bobby Jackson was roughly the same there as his other stops; T-Mac was slightly worse in Houston; Shane Battier was slightly worse. Without digging into this deeper, my guess is that the effect isn't dramatic.
With all of that said, what say you? Has the inside game and creating more FT attempts made it less necessary to shoot outside? Should these players keep shooting because they're in slumps? Is there some sort of middle ground?
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Last option, I think
Using the DEN game as an example – Nuggets had 7 turnovers in 1Q and Wolves had 30 pts. Just from watching it you could obviously see offensive energy, ball movement, and play execution was so great because of the defensive stops and forced turnovers. (then came 2Q)
Like you mentioned, other teams succeed without great success from 3. I think emphasizing fundamentals (team D, protecting ball) are always the first key.
by Jordan Seiffert on Feb 22, 2012 11:30 AM CST reply actions
Verb cunjugation
I’m doing it wrong
by Jordan Seiffert on Feb 22, 2012 11:32 AM CST up reply actions
I think at least some of their poor 3 point shooting
is just random variance. I’m not worried about it. They need to keep shooting them; good NBA offense is layups, free throws (radically improved this year) and 3 pointers.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 22, 2012 11:30 AM CST reply actions
3 pointers...
are volatile as all hell. Throw in the league-wide drop-off in everything and I say “just keep shooting”.
To play off of that
Get new shooters
I voted focus on others as I dont think our wings are here longterm but otherwise we should still shot em
by WolvesBigTicket on Feb 22, 2012 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
One way to look at it is that last year
They shot 37+%, which was one of the better marks in the league. This year they are at 31%, which is one of the poorer marks. If they were shooting their percentage from last year, it would mean an extra 38 makes on the same number of attempts; but if they were making the league average (around 34%), which seems like a reasonable number, they would have made an extra 16 or so.
I suspect that on talent, they are probably about a league average team from 3. As bad as johnson is, he probably is not a 21% 3 point shooter. Webster. Etc.
How much would those extra 16 3 pointers be worth? Hard to say. There are variables in play; the answer is not 48 points. It’s something less than that.
The closest I can come to a formula without really working on it is 3*(16-X) where X is the value of a possession than includes a missed 3 pointer. That doesn’t capture everything that flows from misses and makes, but it accounts for some of it.
I would ball park it at somewhere around 30-35 points that they have missed out on due to below league average 3 point shooting. That doesn’t sound like much (a point a game, roughly), but it’s pretty significant. I suspect they would be looking at an extra 2 or 3 wins. If they made those shots, AND were playing to their pythagorean expectation, this would be a 20-13 or 21-12 team.
They need better wings.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 22, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
This question is pretty easy for me to address with my data.
We lost almost 1 point per game (-0.96) because of our sub-average 3-point shooting.
Here is how the per-game blame breaks down individually:
Player.Name tre.exe.pg
Michael Beasley 0.44
Kevin Love 0.28
Luke Ridnour 0.10
Brad Miller 0.07
Wayne Ellington 0.05
Darko Milicic 0.00
Nikola Pekovic 0.00
Martell Webster -0.02
Anthony Randolph -0.04
Jose Juan Barea -0.11
Ricky Rubio -0.16
Anthony Tolliver -0.32
Derrick Williams -0.51
Wesley Johnson -0.74
Beasley and Love are keeping us afloat, while Wes D-Thrill and Tolliver are pulling the other direction.
Thanks
I’m pleased to see my ballpark assumptions were so close.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 22, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
Good god did I get that formula wrong
Since I rarely think before I post, it’s not a surprise. Really the value of the missed 3s is more accurately calculated as 16(3-X). vj has informed us that X roughly equals 1. Hence, the Wolves have lost just about 32 points by being below league average from 3.
I've changed my sig. The Wolves are now like a reasonably decent meal.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 22, 2012 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
League avg 3pt% down
from .358 to .346. And is the lowest league average since 98-99, which was not surprisingly also a labor shortened season.
But that doesn't explain our fall in relative ranking
Yes, everyone else is mostly down, but we are down even more with pretty much the same set of guys. To the OP’s point, what gives!?
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
We need players who can knock down an open three...
Love and Ridnour are really the only players I can trust in wide open three situations.
He'll regress in 4th quarter performance at some point
In fact I think he already has a bit
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 22, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
Post more
I’ve always enjoyed your takes, PSR, and I’d like to see you post more often. You have a level of thought and insight to your takes and have a pretty remarkable levelheadedness (is that a word?) about how you approach the team.
Clearly, the guys we have can hit the trey more effectively than they have. I’m not sure what to attribute this to, but hell, weird season.
More generally, I know Mr. Adelman loves him some swings to the open man for the corner three, and we don’t seem to have anyone who can bury that shot consistently. Were I F-U-Wes/Frohawk/Caged Hamster/Trolliver/Beef Wellington/Easy/Mr. Lee, Mr. Lee/Bland Hand Luke/WTF Barea, I would be spending a ton of my off-time shooting corner three after corner three.
Off-time????
I think we may have figured out part of the league wide problem.
600 N First Ave "like a Pirate's cove".
Seriously, though
“Practice, we talking ’bout practice” aside, guys have their spots on the floor they know they can hit from regularly. I’m not certain the team has a guy who knows he can drill the corner trey when it comes his way.
Luke and Martell have been really good with corner threes historically speaking.
600 N First Ave "like a Pirate's cove".
I'd love to have synergy.com to convince me of this point
but I don’t have access, alas.
SnP, little help?
I appreciate the compliment
Contributions have reduced this season because I just enjoy the games more when not thinking too much about the team’s flaws. Sometimes, hearing about their personnel needs and “players X, Y, and Z aren’t going to get better” becomes a meme that’s beaten to a pulp. Because I have no control over it, it’s something that I try not to think about too much. It’s great to have this site as an occasional outlet, though.
The good news is hopeful doesn't mean dumb. The bad news is cynical doesn't mean smart. -- Sarah Silverman
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 22, 2012 2:52 PM CST up reply actions
It's easier to enjoy the games this year, of course.
Rubio’s game is so finely developed, it’s hard to consider him a rookie.
Love is doing more than ever, though I’m somewhat leery of his recent step, step, step, while holding his pivot, then take a shitty midrange shot. If he gets that down and can drill it, great, but I’d much rather see him pass off and work for low post position. I’m not at all against him expanding his game, but damn, son, if you’re gonna take that shot, hit it.
Generally, on memes, I just sit and wait for them to die, but with this team, I’m pretty sure it’s true. The numbers Wes posts, game by game, are just embarrassing for an NBA starter.
Love is doing more than ever, though I’m somewhat leery of his recent step, step, step, while holding his pivot, then take a shitty midrange shot. If he gets that down and can drill it, great, but I’d much rather see him pass off and work for low post position. I’m not at all against him expanding his game, but damn, son, if you’re gonna take that shot, hit it.
You’re not the only one. I bet he’s shooting around 20% or less on those this season.
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
by CoffeeJanitor on Feb 22, 2012 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
I can't say for certain
but it really seems to me he’s playing with this shot a lot more over the last 5 games or so.
Broadly speaking, the memes' accuracy isn't the part I question
It’s just not useful to me to watch Beasley make a shot and think “about time…” or “he’s still not a good player”; it takes away from my enjoyment of the moments in the game. When I’m watching the game, it’s not important to worry about who made or didn’t make the play; it’s more important to see how it was or wasn’t made. I’m critical of the players when watching, but ‘m more interested in how the guys they have can win more games strategy- and effort-wise than I am in wishing certain guys were or weren’t here.
The good news is hopeful doesn't mean dumb. The bad news is cynical doesn't mean smart. -- Sarah Silverman
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 23, 2012 9:07 AM CST up reply actions
I think they have to keep shooting them but with some structure
When the offense creates a wide open three, they need to put it up. It is the shortest three, and if you don’t Love/Pek end up getting three seconds as they were waiting to rebound it. Need to keep the defense honest.
Ridnour is very fond of the 3 on the fast break, especially last year. I truly hate this shot, as it does not reward the guys running hard next to him, and if he misses (roughtly 2/3 of the time) there is probably no Wolf under the rim to rebound it.
Love needs to be careful. I would suggest he limit his threes when Pek is out. Because if he misses (2/3 of the time) there is noone good at offensive rebounding by the rim.
Percentage-wise, I’d guess Ridnour, Beasley, and Love will regress to the mean. Ellington doesn’t get many minutes/shots and is probably likely to vary. Webster/Barea/Tolliver have all been hurt (Tolliver with a wrist injury he played through), so injury/rust probably contributed to their struggles.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
Typo - meant to say when offense creates a wide open *corner* three.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 22, 2012 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
This is just eye test, but
I think Luke likes the transition long two much more than the transition trey.
Hitting 3s gives the players underneath more room to work with because the defense has to stay on their man.
We would have beat Denver is Martell didn’t have such an awful night from 3. He’s been having an awful season in general from behind the arc. He’s better than that.
Its really sad to see how much other teams cheat off our wings
Our offense would be absolutely deadly with a some threats outside (that includes Rubio)
by WolvesBigTicket on Feb 22, 2012 2:30 PM CST up reply actions
Did you see the Sikma quote today, talking about adjustments the Wolves expect in the second half?
Whoever’s compiling Sid Hartman’s column had it:
“We’re pretty sure that it’s going to get a little tighter in that paint and they’re going to start packing it in,” Sikma said. “Because basically, that 1-2 punch inside with Pek and Kevin has to be limited from the type of performance that happened between those two guys in Houston if the other team is going to have a chance to win.”
….
“We continue to talk about that and how the adjustments are going to evolve on these guys,” Sikma said. “But they’ve shown that they’re able to make those kinds of adjustments, and it’ll pay off well.”
The last thing we want to do is take long twos. It's still on our list, though.
I have to believe at some point there is some regression to the mean here
Webster especially has a pretty long track record of consistency beyond the arc. I have to believe he eventually starts knocking down the corner 3 with more regularity.
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 22, 2012 1:52 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'm pretty sure 3P% is down leaguewide
There just isn’t as much time as usual to practice these things—I’m guessing most of the time in practice is spent on defense and going over film.
I’m hoping we regress back to a less than abysmal 3P%, but again its down throughout the league. Thank the lockout
If I'm pissing you off its probably sarcasm
has anyone else...
noticed that our wings all pump fake and hesitate when they are wide open and this usually gives the defense time to close out? it has happened a lot this season and pisses me off. Confidence is lacking all around….
by bringbackbrewer on Feb 22, 2012 7:00 PM CST via Android app reply actions
Keep shooting!
3-pointers got us back in that game tonight. We were 11 of 22 (shot way better on the threes than on the twos tonight). I hope the low percent so far is out of the ordinary and we start heading back up to at least the league average.
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