FanPost

PA 100 for 2012 wings


The most annoying thing about building this metric, has been constantly changing my opinion on players as I fix bugs in the code and/or add more information into the model. It is always embarrassing to present a new reality every few weeks, but I am pretty happy with where I am not. There were a number of issues with my play-by-play data parser which means any of my past PA100 numbers came from a really flawed data-set. I managed to fix that , so now my numbers match up perfectly with websites like Hoop Data.

Since Timberwolves fans are constantly asking the question, "which wings should we target in free agency," I figured I would through up a list of how PA 100 describes the current landscape on NBA wings:

This should be pretty self-explanatory. PA100.off is how many points the player adds above the average player at his position. PA100.def is how many points that player's opposing counterpart adds (and adjusting credit for steals, blocks, and technical fouls). PA100.dif is PA100.off - PA100.def. PA.diff is the total point difference that player has made for his team throughout the season. This list is ordered by PA.dif, so the top is guys who play a lot of minutes, and play them well, the bottom is guys who play a lot of minutes and do a terrible job of it, and the middle is a mix of mediocrities (i.e. upgrades to a TWolf fan) and guys who barely played.

Concerns about the defensive metric are warranted. When you see a surprising PA100.def result, feel free to consider how cross-matching, or help-defense from bigs may have impacted that score. However, remember that these are derived from the "factual" results of how a player's positional counterpart played while he was on the court, so denial does require some explanation.

NAME TM POS POSS PA.diff PA100.dif PA100.off PA100.def
James, LeBron MIA 3.26 4039 428.37 10.76 12.28 1.51
Durant, Kevin OKC 3.22 4352 272.12 6.41 7.57 1.16
Wade, Dwyane MIA 1.93 2925 257.74 9.17 8.16 -1.01
Bryant, Kobe LAL 2.01 3728 239.13 6.77 6.2 -0.57
Harden, James OKC 2.45 3392 178.82 5.63 7.14 1.51
Anthony, Carmelo NYK 3.23 2996 178.27 6.11 7.24 1.14
Williams, Louis PHI 1.49 2659 155.79 6.87 3.98 -2.89
Iguodala, Andre PHI 3.06 3553 131.35 3.85 2.61 -1.24
Stuckey, Rodney DET 1.73 2464 124.57 5.41 6.62 1.2
Allen, Tony MEM 2.19 2675 104.8 4.28 0.53 -3.75
Dudley, Jared PHX 3.01 3439 93.84 2.88 1.81 -1.07
Granger, Danny IND 3.04 3611 93.26 2.74 2.07 -0.66
George, Paul IND 2.26 3338 77.39 2.68 0.11 -2.56
Hill, George IND 1.47 2059 77.1 4.76 -0.27 -5.03
Gallinari, Danilo DEN 3.25 2207 74.2 3.52 2.77 -0.75
Martin, Kevin HOU 2.25 2351 72.96 3.46 2.24 -1.22
Ginobili, Manu SAS 2.01 1230 71.01 6.13 9.29 3.16
Matthews, Wes POR 2.22 3362 66.36 2.33 -0.03 -2.36
West, Delonte DAL 1.86 1722 59.05 3.79 1.68 -2.11
Leonard, Kawhi SAS 2.86 2382 56.39 2.52 1.3 -1.22
Batum, Nicolas POR 2.94 2843 55.08 2.09 1.17 -0.92
Rush, Brandon GSW 2.26 2844 50.44 2.13 -0.74 -2.87
Johnson, Joe ATL 2.32 2749 45.18 2 1.85 -0.15
Brown, Derrick CHA 3.03 2104 44.74 2.28 1.61 -0.67
Carter, Vince DAL 2.55 2691 44.02 1.79 -0.09 -1.88
Johnson, James TOR 3.36 1791 42.8 2.55 -0.15 -2.69
Williams, Marvin ATL 3.11 1876 39.58 2.27 0.87 -1.4
Pierce, Paul BOS 3.15 3523 39.4 1.27 3.03 1.75
Gay, Rudy MEM 3.18 4287 38.64 1.06 1.39 0.33
Butler, Jimmy CHI 3.08 527 32.78 6.38 3.43 -2.94
Lee, Courtney HOU 2.09 2697 30.59 1.49 -1.64 -3.13
Allen, Ray BOS 2.04 2846 29.98 1.41 -0.69 -2.1
Brooks, Marshon NJN 2.84 1189 29.97 2.68 3.33 0.66
Hayward, Gordon UTA 2.68 3274 28.94 1.04 1.28 0.25
Korver, Kyle CHI 2.45 2381 27.4 1.51 -0.12 -1.63
Deng, Luol CHI 3.04 3580 27.24 0.92 0.08 -0.84
Gordon, Eric NOH 2.1 439 26.87 6.48 5.47 -1.01
Wafer, Von ORL 2.56 676 26.74 4.11 0.3 -3.81
Dunleavy, Mike MIL 2.75 2245 25.29 1.28 2.07 0.79
Barnes, Matt LAL 2.85 2278 23.48 1.19 0.88 -0.3
World Peace, Metta LAL 2.99 2721 23.02 1 -2.05 -3.05
Henderson, Gerald CHA 2.13 2591 20.27 1.14 0.21 -0.93
McGrady, Tracy ATL 3.04 1121 17.06 1.68 1.25 -0.43
Sefolosha, Thabo OKC 2.22 1403 14.96 1.42 -1.94 -3.37
Wallace, Gerald NJN 3.44 276 14.53 5.42 1.49 -3.93
Anderson, Alan TOR 2.65 264 11.01 4.33 0.51 -3.81
Ebanks, Devin LAL 3.11 525 10.12 2.08 -1.65 -3.73
Evans, Tyreke SAC 2.37 3791 9.6 0.61 1.78 1.17
Stackhouse, Jerry ATL 2.52 417 9.54 2.44 -4.57 -7.01
Jefferson, Richard GSW 3.38 781 9.52 1.37 0.55 -0.82
Webster, Martell MIN 2.69 2006 9.27 0.62 -1.21 -1.82
Green, Gerald NJN 2.64 398 9.1 2.44 -2.24 -4.69
Forbes, Gary TOR 2.66 496 8.99 1.97 1.91 -0.05
Wallace, Gerald POR 3.4 2608 8.79 0.49 0.85 0.36
Gee, Alonzo CLE 2.89 2890 8.38 0.45 0.32 -0.12
Thomas, Lance NOH 3.42 813 7.45 1.07 -0.51 -1.58
Beasley, Michael MIN 3.05 1934 7.3 0.53 -0.7 -1.24
Terry, Jason DAL 1.71 3501 6.52 0.54 1 0.45
Afflalo, Arron DEN 2.27 3499 4.66 0.49 1.07 0.58
Leslie, Travis LAC 2.09 90 4.28 5.12 4.27 -0.85
Stevenson, DeShawn NJN 2.04 593 3.73 0.99 -6.27 -7.25
Johnson, Trey NOH 2.37 115 2.08 2.16 2.04 -0.12
Harris, Manny CLE 2.01 400 1.9 0.83 -1.93 -2.77
Ubiles, Edwin WAS 3.02 62 1.89 3.21 -8.86 -12.07
Carroll, DeMarre DEN 3.07 45 1.58 3.66 10.28 6.63
Walton, Luke LAL 3.16 120 1.41 1.33 0.13 -1.2
Ahearn, Blake UTA 2 20 1.32 6.94 -0.93 -7.87
Green, Danny SAS 2.23 2432 0.99 0.4 -0.4 -0.8
Moore, E'Twaun BOS 1.61 402 0.86 0.57 -4.16 -4.73
Liggins, DeAndre ORL 2.35 144 -0.39 0.08 -3.29 -3.37
Williams, Elliot POR 1.55 255 -1.16 -0.1 -2 -1.91
Emmett, Andre NJN 2 47 -1.23 -2.26 -3.48 -1.22
Kapono, Jason LAL 2.38 483 -1.79 -0.01 -5.56 -5.54
Thompson, Mychel CLE 2.36 171 -2.14 -0.89 -9.12 -8.22
Moon, Jamario CHA 3 45 -2.33 -5.03 -11.58 -6.55
Meeks, Jodie PHI 2.03 2442 -2.69 0.25 -3.5 -3.74
Harris, Tobias MIL 3.18 740 -3.29 -0.29 0.95 1.24
Young, Sam PHI 3.2 65 -3.75 -5.61 0.68 6.3
Green, Willie ATL 2.04 1207 -4 0.03 -1.39 -1.42
Williams, Terrence SAC 2.86 497 -4.62 -0.77 1.91 2.68
Thornton, Marcus SAC 1.67 3406 -5.53 0.2 0.54 0.34
Ellington, Wayne MIN 2.09 1735 -6.06 0.01 -3.55 -3.55
Henry, Xavier NOH 2.4 1177 -6.08 -0.16 -2.23 -2.07
Billups, Chauncey LAC 1.91 1135 -6.32 -0.2 3.55 3.75
Hamilton, Jordan DEN 2.99 441 -6.35 -1.28 -2.6 -1.31
James, Damion NJN 3.07 309 -6.71 -2.02 -5.49 -3.47
Honeycutt, Tyler SAC 2.92 116 -6.89 -5.79 -4.56 1.23
Young, Nick LAC 2.57 778 -7.09 -0.76 -2.28 -1.52
Jackson, Stephen SAS 3.2 548 -8.31 -1.36 -1.38 -0.02
Williams, Terrence HOU 2.78 317 -8.33 -2.47 -3.55 -1.08
Stone, Julyan DEN 1.82 305 -8.92 -2.57 2.81 5.38
Hill, Grant PHX 2.26 2596 -10.06 -0.03 -1.96 -1.93
Jones, Dominique DAL 1.91 445 -10.29 -1.96 0.28 2.24
Chandler, Wilson DEN 3.17 357 -10.65 -2.83 -3.58 -0.75
Walton, Luke CLE 3.16 360 -10.8 -2.85 -5.9 -3.05
Summers, DaJuan NOH 3.05 367 -10.98 -2.84 -2.05 0.78
Eyenga, Christian CLE 2.28 148 -11.07 -7.12 -7.94 -0.81
Young, Sam MEM 2.84 473 -11.17 -2.21 -2.94 -0.73
Martin, Cartier WAS 3.08 266 -11.46 -4.15 -1.05 3.11
Williams, Mo LAC 1.69 2289 -12.17 -0.17 1.61 1.79
Carroll, DeMarre UTA 3.02 334 -12.24 -3.51 0.92 4.42
Marion, Shawn DAL 3.09 3331 -12.84 -0.23 -0.61 -0.38
Derozan, DeMar TOR 2.25 2735 -13.46 -0.13 -1.24 -1.11
Barbosa, Leandro IND 2.02 628 -13.7 -1.82 -2.86 -1.03
Nocioni, Andres PHI 3.13 105 -14.36 -13.52 -11.23 2.29
Gordon, Ben DET 2.07 2111 -14.61 -0.33 0.04 0.37
Aminu, Al-Farouq NOH 3.31 2240 -15.77 -0.55 -1.49 -0.94
Kleiza, Linas TOR 3.31 1137 -16.34 -1.28 -2.44 -1.16
Jefferson, Richard SAS 3.17 2148 -16.92 -0.63 -1.88 -1.25
Pondexter, Quincy MEM 2.8 1732 -17.33 -0.85 -1.66 -0.81
Hamilton, Richard CHI 2 943 -18.05 -1.56 -2.58 -1.02
Young, Nick WAS 2.35 2322 -18.35 -0.43 -1.05 -0.62
Hobson, Darington MIL 2 72 -18.75 -25.69 -12.9 12.79
Ellis, Monta GSW 1.73 2499 -20.21 -0.45 2.72 3.18
Williams, Reggie CHA 2.2 1242 -20.35 -1.28 -2 -0.72
Evans, Maurice WAS 3.05 399 -20.64 -5.02 -5.03 -0.01
Livingston, Shaun MIL 1.95 1779 -21.02 -0.82 0.7 1.52
Gibson, Daniel CLE 1.97 1657 -21.58 -0.95 -3.04 -2.09
Simmons, Bobby LAC 3.09 635 -21.84 -3.28 -5.16 -1.87
Wilkins, Damien DET 2.65 1496 -22.62 -1.36 -2.76 -1.4
Harris, Terrel MIA 1.88 380 -22.69 -5.61 -3.57 2.04
Jones, Dahntay IND 2.62 1806 -26.84 -1.33 0.21 1.54
Brown, Shannon PHX 2.03 2226 -27.54 -0.88 -1.91 -1.03
Redd, Michael PHX 2.4 1244 -27.8 -1.88 -0.85 1.03
Ariza, Trevor NOH 2.91 2301 -29.05 -1.11 -1.2 -0.09
Brewer, Ronnie CHI 2.06 2692 -29.6 -0.74 -2.48 -1.73
Goudelock, Andrew LAL 1.61 657 -30.02 -4.21 -2.72 1.49
Smith, J.R. NYK 2.4 1287 -31.13 -2.06 -1.59 0.47
Battier, Shane MIA 2.33 2364 -32.91 -1.03 -3.64 -2.61
Richardson, Quentin ORL 2.99 1072 -33.15 -2.94 -3.76 -0.82
Neal, Gary SAS 1.59 2021 -33.55 -1.3 0.45 1.76
Redick, J.J. ORL 1.99 2571 -34.83 -1 1.1 2.1
Maggette, Corey CHA 3.02 1318 -35.67 -2.55 -1.26 1.29
Jones, James MIA 2.72 912 -36.06 -3.8 -0.8 3
Hayward, Lazar OKC 3.46 248 -36.07 -14.39 -7.21 7.18
Burks, Alec UTA 2 1432 -36.99 -2.23 -0.2 2.02
Parker, Anthony CLE 2.06 1919 -37.71 -1.61 -1.85 -0.25
Miller, Mike MIA 2.67 1123 -38.61 -3.28 -2.51 0.77
Tolliver, Anthony MIN 3.46 1585 -38.73 -2.29 -2.34 -0.05
Pavlovic, Sasha BOS 2.93 639 -41.55 -6.35 -6.53 -0.18
Butler, Rasual TOR 2.95 750 -41.62 -5.39 -7.35 -1.96
Richardson, Jason ORL 2.3 2324 -42.02 -1.45 -2.7 -1.25
Fernandez, Rudy DEN 2.19 1348 -43.19 -2.85 -1.28 1.57
Turner, Evan PHI 2.5 2567 -43.6 -1.34 -1.37 -0.03
Ellis, Monta MIL 2.04 1079 -44.08 -3.73 0.2 3.92
Barbosa, Leandro TOR 1.92 1406 -44.39 -2.8 -1.62 1.18
Ivey, Royal OKC 1.51 643 -45.81 -6.77 -5.72 1.05
Carroll, Matt CHA 2.16 885 -46.87 -4.94 -5.17 -0.23
Anderson, James SAS 2.64 820 -46.93 -5.57 -3.02 2.55
Cook, Daequan OKC 2.09 1685 -48.89 -2.54 -5.34 -2.8
Garcia, Francisco SAC 2.66 1368 -50.09 -3.51 -4.63 -1.13
Gomes, Ryan LAC 3.14 821 -50.99 -6.06 -7.15 -1.09
Daniels, Marquis BOS 2.62 701 -51.49 -7.19 -8.05 -0.86
Brewer, Corey DEN 2.86 2200 -52.9 -2.25 -2.68 -0.43
Stephenson, Lance IND 1.96 734 -53.14 -6.88 -6.28 0.6
Mayo, O.J. MEM 1.88 3096 -53.6 -1.37 -0.57 0.8
Howard, Josh UTA 3.01 1726 -53.98 -2.97 -1.86 1.12
Morrow, Anthony NJN 2.31 948 -55.93 -5.54 -3.66 1.89
Childress, Josh PHX 2.82 716 -56.02 -7.67 -1.31 6.36
Walker, Bill NYK 2.77 1172 -56.18 -4.64 -4.08 0.56
Delfino, Carlos MIL 2.55 2678 -57.98 -2.01 -2.34 -0.33
Fields, Landry NYK 2.34 3146 -58.22 -1.49 -1.35 0.14
Shumpert, Iman NYK 1.67 2801 -58.62 -1.74 -1.64 0.1
Budinger, Chase HOU 2.85 2037 -59.92 -2.79 -1.59 1.2
Ridnour, Luke MIN 1.58 3281 -60.93 -1.5 2.25 3.75
Miles, C.J. UTA 2.35 1942 -61.45 -2.81 -2.38 0.43
Dooling, Keyon BOS 1.85 973 -62.6 -6.08 -3.98 2.09
Butler, Caron LAC 3.02 2979 -62.89 -1.96 -2.16 -0.2
Casspi, Omri CLE 3.14 2129 -63.73 -2.84 -2.05 0.78
Pietrus, Mickael BOS 2.76 1526 -65.4 -4.13 -4.08 0.05
Prince, Tayshaun DET 2.97 3218 -65.49 -1.88 -1.73 0.15
Hinrich, Kirk ATL 1.69 1389 -65.92 -4.39 -3.57 0.82
Mason, Roger WAS 2.36 1121 -68.2 -5.73 -3.14 2.59
Bell, Raja UTA 2.01 1395 -70.78 -4.72 -2.77 1.95
Singleton, Chris WAS 3.07 2301 -72.3 -2.99 -3.36 -0.38
Jackson, Stephen MIL 2.99 1305 -73.26 -5.46 -3.7 1.76
Belinelli, Marco NOH 2 3146 -74.15 -2 -2.89 -0.89
Daye, Austin DET 3.13 933 -77.09 -8.11 -6.61 1.5
Turkoglu, Hedo ORL 3.12 2598 -78.32 -2.86 1.48 4.34
Foye, Randy LAC 2.12 2595 -84.84 -2.91 -1.26 1.66
Miller, Andre DEN 1.5 3042 -86.84 -2.5 6.11 8.61
Thompson, Klay GSW 2.69 2489 -90.53 -3.48 -0.38 3.11
Johnson, Wesley MIN 2.51 2677 -95.01 -3.39 -4.99 -1.59
Salmons, John SAC 3.07 2428 -96.51 -3.82 -2.32 1.5
Parsons, Chandler HOU 3.15 2983 -101.31 -3.24 -1.34 1.91
Wright, Dorell GSW 3.11 2903 -103.45 -3.41 -0.38 3.02
Crawford, Jamal POR 1.65 2582 -104.35 -3.68 -0.74 2.94
Crawford, Jordan WAS 1.97 2839 -111.2 -3.56 0.79 4.35

Some comments:

-Holy shit Andre Miller... his defensive rating is twice as bad as any other player. He rates poorly in past seasons, but nothing close to that bad.

-I apologize for promoting Jamal Crawford at the deadline based purely on offensive numbers. After getting the data parser cleaned up, Jamal's offensive numbers weren't very good, and his defensive numbers are awful. Good move David Kahn/Glen Taylor in backing out of any Jamal Crawford deal.

-Do we take Wayne's defensive numbers seriously? I have a hard time explaining it based on cross-matching, or the benefit he gets from having top flight defending bigs behind him.

-If we actually want a lock-down defensive three who doesn't do much on offense, James Johnson is the way to go. He has put up consistently excellent PA100.def numbers since entering the league. Brandon Rush also has good defensive numbers a couple years running... and he can hit the 3.

-Derrick Brown? Why not?

-Will Stuckey be available for trade? D-Will and space for Stuckey? Not the ideal back-court mate for Rubio, but he would really enhance our advantage in getting to the line... while being a damn good player generally.

-This is no fluke for Dudley. He rates as PHX's best player and rated as their best payer last season too (Nash is right behind him both years, but gets hit hard by PA100.def.)

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