FanPost

Around the League: Atlanta Hawks

When I think Atlanta, I think absurd contracts. No, not Darko, not Wes Johnson but volume shooters getting paid big money. That said, their volume shooters have taken them to the playoffs for the past 5 years though never to an ECF. Not all is rosy in Atlanta however, the elephant in the room is that they have $60mil locked up for 2012-13 in just 8 players, the most egregious contract being the $19mil owed to Joe Johnson. The Trio of Johnson, Smith and Horford alone will make $45.9million next year. Per wikipedia they are already over next years cap of $58mil (same as this year) so everything will be looked at with respect to salary.

For reference, I've not watched much of the Hawks outside of the playoffs so this will be my initial impression followed by stats and salary implications.

Sham Sports Salary Page: Atlanta Hawks

BBall Reference Page

NBA Geek Page

Atlanta's 82 Games Page

Player: Joe Johnson
Salary: $19.7mil in 2012-13 escalating to $24mil in 2015-16
Initial Impression: a good-ish SF/SG, Melo-lite in my mind. He makes some spectacular plays, has a very nice handle, has a rarely seen post game and an incredibly high usage rate and is reasonably efficient so that he's clearly in the second tier of SFs and SGs
What the Stats Say: .122 wp48, .145ws48, 3FTA / 36min, 24.9%USG, 6.1% TRB, 19.7% AST%, 52.1%eFG (!! much better than I expected though nowhere near guys like Leonard, James, Durant or specialists like Rush, it is better than Iggy and better than the average SG or SF).
Recommendation for the Hawks: You have no choice, he is 100% unmovable and I can't see a situation where amnesty makes sense (not to mention the chance of an owner signing off on that is about 0.0%). Build around him and continue to pay the luxury tax. For his size, I don't know why he doesn't rebound better but he is a good player, just not a great one.
Usefulness to the TPups: None, he costs way too much though he would certainly fill a need.

Player: Josh Smith
Salary: 1 year - $13.2 million remaining.
Initial Impression: A PF/SF tweener who loves to pull the trigger on long 2s... and is much worse than Beasley at making them. I find him more infuriating than on-the-court-Beasley.
What the Stats Say: 28.4% USG, .47% eFG%, .116wp48, .139ws48, 20% AST% (I totally didn't see this coming), 15.9% TRB%, 1.8blocks/36!
82games points out that he doesn't actually play any SF as I thought he did which makes sense if you consider they have TMac, Williams and Johnson available to play the 3.
Recommendation for the Hawks: He's a starter-level player making way way to much but you can't move him. Thankfully there is only one more year of his contract and he plays some nice defense. I could see moving him but I can't imagine a deal that would work.
Usefulness to the TPups: None, see Love, Kevin.

Player: Al Horford
Salary: 4/$48 remaining.
Initial Impression: This man is a stud, top 25 player in the NBA. Plays the 5 and 4 interchangeably, offers good defense (both help and man), a nice 15' jump shot and post moves which could stand to be improved. After missing most of the year he showed up and caused some problems for Boston in the playoffs. Back when ChuckD was trolling his craft I was thinking Love for Horford would be a fair deal for us.
What the Stats Say (skewed due to only 348 minutes prior to injury this year): .187wp48 (career .167), .180ws48 (.155 career), 13% TRB (career 16.5), 1.4 BLK/36, .553 eFG% (.537 career)
Still a stud and Atlanta's best player!
Recommendation for the Hawks: This man is worth the $12 mil you are paying him. The only way I would deal him is if you got someone like Gortat back who is statistically similar but offers $$ savings (Horford is 3 years younger)
Usefulness to the TPups: He would be amazing but too expensive unless you moved Pek so no dice here.

Player: Kirk Hinrich
Salary: FA, made $8mil last year.
Initial Impression: a serviceable backup PG, but not as good as either Barea or Ridnour meaning he was massively overpaid. He does take care of the ball but he's not very good at either creating his own shot or setting up his teammates.
What the Stats Say: .069ws48, .054wp48, 15.8 TOV%, 16.3 AST% (yuck). 13.9 USG%, 34% 3pt%, .493 eFG%.
Recommendation for the Hawks: He's only been there 2 years so you don't have Bird rights, let him walk.
Usefulness to the TPups: We don't need another backup PG and the ones we have are better.

Player: Marvin Williams
Salary: $8.2mil, then a $7.5Q.O.
Initial Impression: If he were on the Spurs he would be Kahwi Leonard (and making a lot less), solid defense, rebounds well moves the ball, shoots the 3 well and every so often puts the ball on the floor and makes you remember he's a lottery pick.
What the Stats Say: .156 ws48, .202wp48, 18 USG%, .494 eFG%, 11.5 TRB% (as a SF!), 7.7 AST% (not what I was expecting), 6.8 TOV%, 38.9 3PT%
Recommendation for the Hawks: You have your primary ball handlers,this is your low usage 3 point shooting defensive specialist. He's a good player and worth his contract though I didn't think he showed up against Pierce. Given the money situation in Atlanta I'm not sure you can say no if someone offers you significant $ saving for him.
Usefulness to the TPups: He would fill a huge void at the 3. I would try to offer some salary savings (i.e. Johnson and either Miller or Webster for him) and we've got a much improved backcourt.

Player: Zaza Pachulia
Salary: $5.2Mil/year
Initial Impression: Backup center, I can't say I've ever really paid attention to him.
What the Stats Say: .147 ws48, .153 wp48, 14 USG%, 16.4%TRB, 1.4 BLK%, .499 eFG
Recommendation for the Hawks: He doesn't get blocks or steals well, converts the ball ok, his primary skill is rebounding. I would say keep him as your backup big just because size costs money in this league and he produces well for 5.2mil.
Usefulness to the TPups: He's not quite the defensive backup C I would prefer (for comparison Chris Andersen sports a 7.4% BLK%) so I would stay away since both Love and Pek are better.

Player: Jeff Teague
Salary: $2.4mil next year $3.4 QO after that.
Initial Impression: Part of the great PG draft class of 2009 and way way way better than Johnny Flynn. A good but not great player who has had a few moments in the spotlight including a game where he showed up Rose last year.
What the Stats Say: .131ws48, .138 wp48, 24.3 AST%, 15.1 TOV%, 1.7 steals / 36, .514 eFG%, 34% 3pt %.
Recommendation for the Hawks: A good player on a rookie salary!!! keep him, offer him the QO after next year.
Usefulness to the TPups: None, we're chalk full at PG.

Player: Jason Collins
Salary: Free Agent, vet minimum last year
Initial Impression: I thought he fell off a cliff back in 04 or so. I'm surprised he's still in the league but I guess you can't teach height.
What the Stats Say: .025 ws48, -.073 wp48, 9.1 TRB%, 0.7 BLK%, 0.7 STL%, .400 eFG
Recommendation for the Hawks: I guess he fills up your roster but playing this guy can only be bad.
Usefulness to the TPups: Kahntract??? Dear god no! This is Darko without the blocks on a vet minimum salary, let some other team pay him.

Player: Tracy McGrady
Salary: 850K - vet minimum - now a FA
Initial Impression: The best cost/production acquisition by anyone last offseason, He's only playing 15-20 mpg but they are quality minutes.
What the Stats Say: 47%eFG, 3.6FTA/36 (down 2.4 from career average), .094 ws48, .178 wp48.
Recommendation for the Hawks: Resign the man if you can but I expect that he will get a larger contract elsewhere since they don't have bird rights.
Usefulness to the TPups: Massive. Here is a man worthy of a Kahntract, a vet who used to be a stud who is still putting up good numbers in backup type minutes. One cheap way to fill your SF void would be to buyout Webster, draft Crowder, sign TMac to a 3/$12 deal and sign Gee (or Jeremy Evans) to a similar contract. Then minutes are TMac (15), Gee (25), Crowder (8), Johnson (0).

Player: Vladimir Radmanovic
Salary: Vet minimum, 850K now a FA
Initial Impression: He's still in the league? I hadn't heard about him since Seattle moved.
What the Stats Say: 15mpg, .103ws48, .087 wp48, 50% eFG%
Recommendation for the Hawks: A backup big that produces at near starter (.100 wp48) levels and makes vet minimum... yes please.
Usefulness to the TPups: It's been discussed that we would like a backup big that's more defense oriented but paying a guy like Radmanovic vet minimum is just good use of money and any team should be willing to take him as an 8th man.

Player: Willie Green
Salary: FA - made Vet minimum
Initial Impression: I've heard of him.... I couldn't have even told you he was a SG though.
What the Stats Say: He had a career year based on .104 wp48 and .122ws48 which was driven by a 54%eFG (44% from downtown on 2.1 attempts per game).
Recommendation for the Hawks: I simply can't argue with vet minimum when guys produce like this, that said I'd expect regression in his 3 point shooting (career 33%).
Usefulness to the TPups: His normal years are better than Wayne Ellington so we could certainly try to acquire him, it's more a function of having roster spots than it being worthwhile however.

Player: Jannero Pargo
Salary: FA - 850K
Initial Impression: A PG so bad he repeatedly couldn't beat out Fischer for playing time when he was with the Lakers.
What the Stats Say: Another guy with a banner year .048wp48 (career -.040), .095ws48 (career .032) driven by 3 point shooting 38% over a career average of 35%. Assists were up but so were turnovers...
Recommendation for the Hawks: Keep him if you've got no one else, but I wouldn't touch him with a 10' stick
Usefulness to the TPups: He's a bad PG and I'm afraid Kahn would offer him 4/$16, stay away.

Player: Jerry Stackhouse
Salary: FA - vet minimum in 2011
Initial Impression: There's collecting useful vets at a cheap price for your bench, then there's Stackhouse. It's good to know that guys older than me can still play in the NBA even if they aren't actually effective.
What the Stats Say: He managed to play more minutes than Jeremy Evans did, and for a bench guy he was ok (.060 ws48, .035 wp48) once again driven by a nearly career best 3point shooting (stop me when you've heard this too often).
Recommendation for the Hawks: He'll be 38 next year and he only played 278 minutes at 37 let the man retire.
Usefulness to the TPups: None - I would rather gamble on Malcolm Lee playing significant minutes than waste a roster spot on him.

Player: Ivan Johnson
Salary: Yup, vet minimum last year, FA now **
Initial Impression: I had to cheat, I had no idea who this guy is but in short he's a rookie PF from the D-League who outperformed our #2 draft pick.

From Wikipedia
Johnson began his professional career in the NBA D-League. He was "banned forever" from the Korean Basketball League (KBL) after making an obscene gesture at a referee.[2] On December 19, 2011, right before the 2011-12 NBA season started, Johnson signed a two-year, 1.235 million dollar contract with the Atlanta Hawks.



What the Stats Say: .113 ws48, .100wp48 in 934 minutes, 51% eFG, 2.9 ast + stl/36, 14.2 TRB%
Recommendation for the Hawks: Lock him down while he's cheap. He is 27 so I can't imagine much upside or competition for his services but I would find a way to retain him.
Usefulness to the TPups: umm I don't think we need another PF but sign me up if we move DWill and he's cheap.

Player: Donald Sloan
The Hawks played him for 20 minutes then waived him, I don't think we need to go through the usual rigmarole here.

Offseason Rosterbation:

I would resign TMac if possible and decline to offer Hinrich serious money. Moving Marvin is contingent upon getting a good wing and saving money. Honestly their basic roster is Teague, Johnson, Williams, Smith, Horford which is a very solid base. Personally I would try and resign a lot of their vets at minimum salaries and continue to bring in promising DLeaguers to fill out the bench ala Ivan Johnson. I don't believe that blowing things up is viable or even plausible given the contracts of Johnson, Smith and Horford so the best bet is to have a better scouting / stats department than anyone else and unfortunately the only real places available for improvement are the bench and the 3.

* removed the youtube videos because I linked them wrong and I'm too lazy to get it right.

** Why was Malcolm Lee the only TWolf making minimum salary in 2011? These guys are available and many of them are productive...

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