So the story is this- I've always considered basketball to be the sport in the US most likely to be successful adopting a multi-tiered promotion/relegation structure (ala international soccer).I'd toyed around with the idea of simulating some seasons to see what it would look like, but never bothered. Then the SBN staff went ahead and did a really good job going through this exercise for college football, so I figured I'd give it a shot. You can see my results below the jump, but remember - the 2 tenets of pro/rel theory in the US are (1) it would be awesome, and (2) it will never happen.

For the structure of the US basketball landscape, I went ahead and simply copied the structure of the Brazilian soccer landscape. It's what I'm most familiar with and there are a lot of relevant similarities in the two setups (i.e. both countries are continent-sized, are the top talent producers in the respective sports, etc.). Conversations on what are most likely to occur or succeed tend to get myopic and circular very quickly, so I'm making alot of things simpler for myself by just shoehorning all NBA and NCAA (I skipped D-league, AAU, minor leagues, etc. just for sake of simplicity) teams into the model described below. It's really not a good fit, but does illustrate some of the advantages/disadvantages..

So, what does the Brazilian soccer landscape look like?

• The top league is 20 teams from across the country, the schedule is completely even no playoffs, most points take the title.
  • top 4 teams qualify for a lucrative international tournament
  • teams 5-12 qualify for a not-quite lucrative consolation international tournament
  • bottom four teams are relegated to the next lower level
• 2nd league is 20 teams, same story- 4 go up, 4 go down
• 3rd league just like the 2nd
• 4th league is different. There's 40 teams from across the country. The 40 teams are selected fresh each year, sent up by each of the state-level organizing entities. They play in multiple group/playoff stages, which keeps games regional and minimizes travel costs. The top 4 teams make it to 3rd division the next year.
  • Here is where I fudged the shoehorning a bit. I made 4 20-team national leagues, then lumped all remaining teams (~290 or so) into 4 randomly formed leagues, which would theoretically be regionally based, but I didn't bother with that level of detail. If I really wanted to go all out on this bit, I'd of made 3 national leagues, then created a 4-tier based on prior year NCAA conference results.
    
  • (as a side note, on top from the 100 teams I described above, there are about ~400 pro soccer teams in Brazil that just tread water with state- and regional tournaments while the big boys are fighting it out - consider that filler material for how the div II and III teams fit into this picture)
• in parallel to the domestic leagues is a 64-team domestic cup. The top teams that are not otherwise engaged in international tournaments are elected by the organizing committee. This is important only in that the multiple layers of motivations - championship/inter cup 1/inter cup 2/relegation/promotion/domestic cup - are the key to making a single table league compelling. There's no goddamned tanking when there is no draft and the different between finishing 12th versus 13th translates into money in your pocket.

With the above in mind, I made my simulation. For team rankings I used z-score of pro basketball reference SRS for NBA teams plus a 5-point offset; and a z-score with no offset of Sagarin's Elo rankings for NCAA teams.The 5-point offset serves to distinguish the NBA over the NCAA teams. I'm not sure what a more accurate number would be, but with the talent distribution being what it is, I don't currently see alot of overlap between NBA and NCAA. For a silly exercise such as this I see no reason to look for "better" overall team metrics; it's not like Stern is taking notes or anything. Results for the '05-06 season is presented in its entirety, subsequent seasons are summarized. Commentary is interspersed, but is neither clever nor funny. To wit:


05-06
If we let SRS do our thinking for us, the Spurs are the champs this year. There's no playoffs. Colors/shading show the breakdown of which teams would have gone where had pro/rel been in place, but I made no changes for the following season. This season just introduces the breakpoints. I think I had a good reason for doing that, but don't remember what it was now.

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06-07

Champs - San Antonio Spurs // best SRS, and were the actual champs
Qualify for top international tournament - San Antonio, Dallas, Pheonix, Houston
Qualify for consolation international tournament - Bulls, Pistons, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Magic, Lakers, Warriors, Clippers
relegated to 2 - Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks // in the first year of eligibility, a truly storied franchise goes under in the Celtics. This happens fairly regularly in Brazilian soccer, as only 16 clubs get to stay in the first division, but in terms of historic significance there are 12 clubs that are separated from the remainder. Of course when a club does drop down to the 2nd division, it can be a really good thing. For one, the fans pack the stadium towards the end of the season attempting to will their team into staying out of the relegation zone. And they still get a percentage of TV money from the top division in the following year, but their expenditures due to player salaries typically decrease since they don't need as many superstars in the lower league. And since expectations are lower, the front office can settle down and make some intelligent sports related decisions rather than making panic moves to appease the ultras. Though I don't expect too much of that to translate into US basketball.
promoted to 1 - Utah Jazz, Toronto Raptors, New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets, Seattle SuperSonics
relegated to 3 - Gonzaga, LSU, George Washington, Connecticut
promoted to 2 - Ohio State, Georgetown, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
relegated to 4 - South Carolina, Hofstra, Bucknell, George Mason
promoted to 3 - Kansas, Wisconsin, Southern Illinois, Texas A&M
relegated to the regionals - Oklahoma, UAB, Cincinnati, NC Wilmington
promoted to 4 - Clemson, Washington State, UNLV, Oregon
Worst team in the country - Jacksonville

07-08
Champs - Lakers // Lakers win the simulation, Celtics took the real deal. The Celtics would have won this simulated season, but they were playing in the 2nd division due to prior acts of craptitude. Seem unjust? Feel sorry for them? Proverbs 10:2 - "Ill-gotten gains do not profit, But righteousness delivers from death."
Qualify for top international tournament - Lakers, Jazz, Pistons, Hornets
Qualify for consolation international tournament - Suns, Spurs, Rockets, Magic, Mavericks, Nuggets, Raptors, Warriors
relegated to 2 - New Jersey Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Seattle SuperSonics, Miami Heat
promoted to 1 - Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Indiana Pacers
relegated to 3 - Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Villanova, Florida //Pittsburgh and Ohio State both go up one year, then down the next. That'll happen.
promoted to 2 - Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin, West Virginia
relegated to 4 - LSU, Iowa, George Washington, Wichita State
promoted to 3 - Louisville, Michigan State, Washington State, Marquette
relegated to the regionals - Old Dominion, Michigan, Hofstra, Bucknell
promoted to 4 - Davidson, Stanford, Butler, Xavier-Ohio
Worst team in the country - NJIT(New Jersey Tech)

08-09
Champs - Cavs // Cavs win sim, Lakers won the trophy; maybe The Decision never happens.
Qualify for top international tournament - Cavs, Celtics, Lakers, Magic
Qualify for consolation international tournament - TrailBlazers, Rockets, Spurs, Nuggets, Jazz, Mavericks, Suns, Hornets
relegated to 2 - Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors, Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings
promoted to 1 - Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Bobcats
relegated to 3 - West Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Georgetown
promoted to 2 - Connecticut, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Villanova
relegated to 4 - NC State, Bradley, Arkansas, Southern Illinois
promoted to 3 - Xavier-Ohio, Clemson, LSU, Arizona
relegated to the regionals - Wichita State, Indiana, George Washington, Missouri State
promoted to 4 - Wake Forest, Florida State, Oklahoma, Purdue
Worst team in the country - NJIT(New Jersey Tech) // 2 years in a row! For those interested, their Brazilian counterpart is Ibis Sport Club.

//The Gophers miss out by one spot to being promoted to Tier 4 this year, and had they made that jump, would have stayed in Tier 4 until the '11-12 season, at which point they would have won promotion to Tier 3. But they didn't make it up, so they never left the regionals in the entire simulation. The variance in the lower NCAA teams is enormous. Count this as one reason why this model isn't well suited.


09-10
Champs - Magic // and the Lakers repeat is wiped off the books. I'm enjoying this.
Qualify for top international tournament - Magic, Cavs, Jazz, Spurs
Qualify for consolation international tournament - Lakers, Suns, Hawks, Nuggets, Celtics, TrailBlazers, Mavericks, Heat
relegated to 2 - New Orleans Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons
promoted to 1 - Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors
relegated to 3 - North Carolina, Memphis, Connecticut, UCLA
promoted to 2 - Kentucky, West Virginia, Syracuse, Ohio State
relegated to 4 - Boston College, ArizonaWashington State, LSU
promoted to 3 - Butler, Purdue, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest
relegated to the regionals - Arkansas, George Mason, Davidson, Iowa
promoted to 4 - Cornell, Saint Mary's-Cal., Baylor, Kansas State
Worst team in the country - Alcorn State


10-11
Champs - Heat // Heat win in lieu of Mavs, we never get to see Dirk on cloud 9. I retract my statement about enjoying this.
Qualify for top international tournament - Heat, Bulls, Lakers, Spurs
Qualify for consolation international tournament - Magic, Celtics, Nuggets, Mavericks, Thunder, Grizzlies, Rockets, TrailBlazers
relegated to 2 - Golden State Warriors, Charlotte Bobcats, Toronto Raptors, Cleveland Cavaliers
promoted to 1 - New Orleans Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers
relegated to 3 - Texas, West Virginia, Villanova, Michigan State
promoted to 2 - Connecticut, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin
relegated to 4 - Memphis, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest
promoted to 3 - Arizona, Kansas State, Florida State, UNLV
relegated to the regionals - Nevada, Cornell, Bradley, LSU
promoted to 4 - San Diego State, VCU(Va. Commonwealth), Notre Dame, BYU
Worst team in the country - Southern University


11-12
Champs - Bulls // in all sim'd years, SRS champ matches NBA champ only once. I'm pretty sure it's exceedingly rare for the President's trophy winner to win the Stanley cup, and I know the Supporter's shield has never taken the MLS championship. Does it happen much more often in the NBA, or am I only thinking it does because of the Jordan years? Winning a table versus surviving a playoff are usually very different things. Though there's no reason you can't introduce pro/rel into a league with a playoff structure. There's even been a few cases of 2nd division teams being given playoff slots, though nobody really likes those.
Qualify for top international tournament - Bulls, Spurs, Thunder, Heat
Qualify for consolation international tournament - 76ers, Nuggets, Hawks, Pacers, Grizzlies, Knicks, Celtics, Lakers
relegated to 2 - Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Hornets
promoted to 1 - Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Toronto Raptors // who said this season is a waste? Next year is back in the sun for the first time in a long time for the Twolves. The Clippers ranked 7th by SRS, which since they were playing in the 2nd division, means that behind the '07-08 Celtics they're the next best 2nd division team ever. Again I feel no pity for them due to their fantastically undeserved influx of talent.
relegated to 3 - Duke, Florida, Connecticut, Pittsburgh // Duke goes under! Duke goes under! They stayed strong in the 2nd division this entire time, I thought they'd never leave. For those who don't know, there's nothing quite as nice as having a hated rival go under. It's a gift that continues to give the entire following year. It actually lasts longer than the sensation of having your team win the title (since shortly thereafter you have to start defending that title).
promoted to 2 - Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown
relegated to 4 - Butler, Villanova, Texas A&M, Clemson
promoted to 3 - Baylor, Vanderbilt, NC State, Saint Mary's-Cal.
relegated to the regionals - Wake Forest, South Carolina, Boston College, Southern Illinois
promoted to 4 - Murray State, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa State
Worst team in the country - Binghamton-NY


So that's that. I hope anyone dumb enough to read this is as tired from reading it as I am from writing it. Consider this my humble contribution in the fight against productive Fridays at work. Questions/comments/insults welcome.


(1) it would be awesome
(2) it will never happen