CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 18: Jamal Olasewere #1 of the Long Island Blackbirds goes up for a shot between a future Timberwolf in the second half during the second round of the 2011 NCAA men's basketball tournament at Time Warner Cable Arena on March 18, 2011 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
OK folks. It's that time again. One of these years we'll be a lot less giddy about this bit.
Much, much, much more below the fold.
First, if you are not familiar with the Hoopus Score or past Hoopus Draft boards, cast your gaze over towards the left side of the page and find the links bar. There you go. Click away to your heart's delight.
I've been doing the draft board since the old site and it's moved from an unformulated paragraph of "don't take the wrong Gator" to a mish-mash of too many damn numbers that didn't really make a whole lot of sense, to what I hope will be a simplified and easy-to-understand score that will help narrow the universe of which players are deserving of a look-see at pick #18.
The Hoopus Score used to be divided into two parts: efficiency and production. This year I've scrapped that approach in favor of a single score based on pace adjusted per 40 minute data taken from Draft Express.
The unweighted formula is pretty simple: PTS+FTM+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-PF
Not too much to get excited about, I know.
I then take each (pace adjusted per 40) number and weigh them against how I think each individual stat will correlate to NBA success. These correlations are taken from stat message boards, site comments, posts, etc and then averaged out by both net score and relative ranking. With a bit more time and access to, say, an actual pro sports data base, I think I could really tighten up these correlations, but in the mean time, here's the basic order of what correlates to success in the NBA: Assists, blocks, rebounds, elite shooting (high 3p% with .50+ 2p), free throw shooting, turnovers, personal fouls, shooting percentage, points.
Next, I sort all of the scores into what I consider to be the three positions of the modern pro game: bigs, wing players, and lead guards.
Before we go any further, let's see if this new approach passed the smell test. Here are the top 5 players in each category (with their rounded Hoopus Score) for the past few seasons taken from DX's final mock for each year + NBA players who have made the league:
|1||Kenneth Faried (36)||Orlando Johnson (31)||Norris Cole (31)|
|2||Derrick Williams (32)||Kawhi Leonard (30)||Jimmer! (31)|
|3||Jared Sullinger (31)||Alec Burks (29)||Kyrie Irving (30)|
|4||Jon Leuer (30)||Terrence Jones (29)||Kemba Walker (30)|
|5||Mike Scott (29)||Marshon Brooks (29)||CJ McCollum (29)|
|1||DMC (36)||Evan Turner (35)||Jimmer! (31)|
|2||Kenneth Faried (36)||Landry Fields (31)||Grevis Vasquez (28)|
|3||Hassan Whiteside (33)||Al Faroq Aminu (28)||Jeremy Lin (27)|
|4||Larry Sanders (31)||Paul George (28)||John Wall (26)|
|5||Luke Harangody (32)||Luke Babbitt (28)||Damian Lillard (25)|
|1||Blake Griffin (41)||James Harden (31)||Stephen Curry (37)|
|2||John Bryant (40)||Manny Harris (30)||Ben Whiteside (32)|
|3||DeJuan Blair (38)||Tyreke Evans (30)||Eric Maynor (31)|
|4||Luke Harangody (35)||Marcus Thornton (29)||Nick Calathes (30)|
|5||Kenneth Faried (35)||Evan Turner (29)||Jeremy Lin (29)|
|1||Michael Beasley (40)||James Harden (29)||Steph Curry (32)|
|2||Kevin Love (37)||Courtney Lee (28)||George Hill (31)|
|3||John Bryant (37)||Sam Young (26)||Nick Calathes (27)|
|4||Luke Harangody (34)||CDR (26)||Eric Maynor (26)|
|5||Jason Thompson (34)||Lee Cummard (26)||Derrick Rose (26)|
I think that passes the smell test.
A few things before we get to the scores:
- No one in their right mind would say, for instance, that Norris Cole should be drafted ahead of Kyrie Irving. Please keep in mind that this statistic is only meant to narrow down the universe of acceptable players and things like age, athleticism, character, BBIQ, communication, etc need to be taken into account.
- Kenneth Faried was pretty good in college.
- Correctly identifying positional fit really, really matters. Where will the tweeners play in the NBA? Are they 1/2s? 2/3s? 3/4s? 4/5s? 2/3s are all put on the wing. 4/5s are all bigs. It's the 1/2s and 3/4s that are the problem.
|1||Anthony Davis (33.7)||Jae Crowder (28.2)||Damian Lillard (31.7)|
|2||Thomas Robinson (32.2)||Orlando Johnson (27.7)||Scott Machado (25.3)|
|3||Mike Scott (31.6)||Will Barton (27.1)||J'Covan Brown (23.5)|
|4||Draymond Green (31.6)||Terrence Jones (24.9)||Tu Holloway (23)|
|5||Andrew Nicholson (31.5)||Tony Wroten (24.5)||Tyshawn Taylor (22.4)|
|6||Jared Sullinger (30.3)||Marcus Denmon (24.3)||Kendall Marshall (20)|
|7||Royce White (30)||Dion Waiters (24.2)||Marquis Teague (16)|
|8||Kyle O'Quinn (30)||Kevin Murphy (24)|
|9||Tyler Zeller (30)||Jeff Taylor (24)|
|10||Drew Gordon (29.2)||Bradley Beal (23.8)|
|11||John Henson (28.4)||Moe Harkless (23.6)|
|12||Kevin Jones (28.3)||John Jenkins (23.1)|
|13||JayMychal Green (27)||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (23)|
|14||Henry Simms (26.3)||Harrison Barnes (22.8)|
|15||Arnett Moultrie (26.2)||Jared Cunningham (22.1)|
|16||Bernard Jones (24.7)||Jeremy Lamb (21.9)|
|17||Meyers Leonard (24.7)||Quincy Miller (21.8)|
|18||Andre Drummond (23.4)||Darius Johnson Odom (21.5)|
|19||Festus Ezel (23.1)||Kris Joseph (20.5)|
|20||Perry Jones III (22.7)||Kim English (19.3)|
|Player||Height w/shoes||wingspan||reach||hand width||hand length||bench||age|
Mike Scott is probably the only guy who gets knocked out due to size, and that's simply a Wolves-roster 'thang. Yeah, he has the standing reach of Tyler Zeller but the Wolves need someone who can be a tweener at the 4/5, not the 3/4 (or even a straight-up 4).
|Anthony Davis (17.1)||Terrence Jones (11.3)||Damien Lillard (5.9)|
|Kyle O'Quinn (14.1)||Jae Crowder (10.7)||Scott Machado (5.4)|
|John Henson (14)||Moe Harkless (10.2)||Tu Holloway (4.2)|
|Drew Gordon (13.9)||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (9.7)||Marquis Teague (3.5)|
|Thomas Robinson (13.9)||Will Barton (8.9)||Tyshawn Taylor (3.3)|
|Miles Plumlee (13.3)||Bradley Beal (8.4)||Kendall Marshall (3.3)|
|Andre Drummond (13.2)||Terrence Ross (8.2)|
|Draymond Green (12.2)||Quincy Miller (8.1)|
|Bernard James (12.8)||Orlando Johnson (7.3)|
|Tyler Zeller (12.8)||Jeff Taylor (7.1)|
|Player||Hoopus Score||Do S**t||Adj TS||Adj TO|
|Player||Combined #||Hoopus||TS||stlblk40pa||to40pa||reb40pa||wing span||hand width|
- John Henson: Henson should be the Wolves' #1 target in this draft. You can make a fairly decent case that he belongs in the top 5 picks overall.
- Tyler Zeller: A mobile 7 footer with excellent footwork, solid production, and a long track record.
- Jae Crowder: There is simply no good way to overlook his production.
- Will Barton: Madison Dan has been on this pick from the get-go.
- Terrence Jones: A lesser Royce White who will likely be able to co-exist with Kevin Love.
- Dion Waiters: Not likely to be available at 18, but the best shooting guard in the draft.
- Meyers Leonard:Decent big who would have been easier to peg had he pulled a Zeller and stayed in school.
- Miller/Harkless: The "potential" picks. My gun to the head take is that Miller is probably the better long-term option, but both really didn't do much to get excited about in college.
- Royce White: I'd have him at the top of tier two or in tier one if I knew what to do with him in the pros.
- Kyle O'Quinn: Quinn really should be in the top two tiers and I'm only putting him here to avoid some back and forth about value. His size and production place him squarely in the lotto for a draft as weak as this one. J
- Andrew Nicholson: As mentioned above, awesome production, good shooting and size.
- Orlando Johnson: He had a bad start to his college career but he's certainly turned it around.
- Mike Scott: 5th year guy who has been producing from the get-go.
- Rakim Sanders
- Ken Horton
- Alex Young
- Trey Zeigler
- Kevin Murphy
- Charlie Westbrook
- Jesse Sanders
- BJ Young
- Cody Zeller
- Jeff Withey
- Branden Dawson