Robbie Hummel's Performance Against Top-100 RPI Teams

OK, it's just the 58th pick. I'm still going to spend some time on it. Now that we have an actual player to look at, let's see how he fits in with the small forwards I looked at before the draft.

The table below shows the number of minutes played against top-100 RPI teams, the average ranking of those teams, the MDSD score, and the player's WS48. Hummel looks pretty good here, but Ken Horton (Central Connecticut State) and John Shurna (Northwestern) are undrafted players who look better. Hollis Thompson (Georgetown) has been getting some mentions, but he doesn't look like much here. An interesting thing about Hummel's MDSD score is that it's almost entirely driven by his extremely low turnover rate, which accounts for 2.46 of his 3.44 points. In other words, everything else is pretty average.

Player Team Class MIN Avg Rank MDSD WS48
Hummel Purdue Sr 700 35.3 3.44 0.238
Crowder Marquette Sr 735 40.1 8.19 0.337
T. Jones Kentucky So 673 35.5 3.89 0.267
MKG Kentucky Fr 744 37.3 1.36 0.243
Taylor Vanderbilt Sr 770 47.2 1.92 0.216
Q. Miller Baylor Fr 551 34.9 0.74 0.175
Barnes UNC So 624 30.6 -0.66 0.207
Harkless St. John's Fr 638 41.8 2.12 0.137
D. Miller Kentucky Sr 607 37.3 0.10 0.212
Horton Central Conn Sr 296 77.7 6.89 0.273
Shurna Northwestern Sr 788 47.3 5.00 0.206
Mitchell Alabama Jr 370 43.8 3.12 0.218
Thompson Georgetown Jr 627 38.8 0.28 0.206

The table below shows the performance against top-100 RPI teams. Hummel hits two of Weiland's five criteria. He only misses a third (rebounds) by 0.1, though. In addition, his eFG% exceeded the 50% threshold in each of his previous three seasons. His scoring efficiency during his senior year was significantly below his career average. The big question is whether his injuries were still healing or he's permanently damaged goods. If the former is true, this pick starts looking better. If not, Horton and Shurna seem like better SF picks. Horton may have been better regardless of Hummel's health, but the small school factor introduces some uncertainty about him.

Player Team TS% P40 eFG% REB40 ASB40 A/TO # Criteria
Hummel Purdue 0.529 18.8 0.476 8.9 4.1 1.84 2
Crowder Marquette 0.579 20.2 0.530 10.0 6.4 1.59 5
T. Jones Kentucky 0.528 15.6 0.502 9.8 5.8 0.71 4
MKG Kentucky 0.589 15.4 0.521 10.3 4.1 0.86 3
Taylor Vanderbilt 0.599 20.3 0.583 7.1 4.1 0.78 3
Q. Miller Baylor 0.561 17.6 0.508 7.0 4.3 0.65 2
Barnes UNC 0.499 21.4 0.449 6.5 2.6 0.50 2
Harkless St. John's 0.541 18.6 0.496 9.5 3.8 0.44 2
D. Miller Kentucky 0.561 14.0 0.520 3.7 4.3 1.06 2
Horton Central Conn 0.607 20.8 0.551 10.1 7.7 1.05 5
Shurna Northwestern 0.568 21.3 0.532 5.6 5.8 1.87 4
Mitchell Alabama 0.503 15.1 0.480 7.7 5.2 1.05 2
Thompson Georgetown 0.567 15.2 0.542 7.0 3.0 0.70 2

There are still some good players that went undrafted. I only had one eye on the draft last night, so I didn't notice that Drew Gordon, Scott Machado, and Kevin Jones are all still available. Gordon might be particularly useful to the Wolves if we need to rebuild some frontcourt depth on a budget. He's an excellent rebounder.

Shurna, Horton, and possibly even Tony Mitchell (Alabama) could be brought in for the summer league team. One guy I'd really like to have the Wolves look at is William Mosley of Northwestern State. He had a 7.97 MDSD and 0.290 WS48. During his four years he has blocked 3.6, 4.4, 6.1, and 5.1 blocks per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). Again, the small school factor is a big thing to consider and he might not be big enough, but having a look in summer league certainly couldn't hurt. He could be the cheapest rim protector we can find.

My draft summary: Getting Budinger for the 18th pick was probably a good move, though I don't love the fact that we cashed in a mid-first rounder for a one-year rental. Failing to make a move to get Barton in the high 30s was a mistake. He's a good SG prospect who could have been picked up for a relatively low cost, but apparently any cost above $0 is too much. I wish Hummel the best. He's a skilled, tough player and I hope he succeeds for us. However, I think better choices were on the board at 58. Let's hope for some more interesting (and better) news in the coming week.

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