FanPost

Wolves Salary Scenarios and Implications

Scenario 1: What can be done now, without any trades

Assuming:

  • Miller and Webster buyouts.
  • Amnesty Darko.
  • Sign Shved for 3 years starting at about 2.5M$.
  • Sign Stiemsma to 2 years with the Room MLE ( Stiemsma and Shved contracts can be switched ).
  • Sign Batum to a 45M$ four years offer sheet:.

Player 2013 Salaries _____ Player 2014 Salaries
Kevin Love 13,668,750
Kevin Love 14,693,906
Nicolas Batum 10,500,000
Nicolas Batum 10,972,500
Nikola Pekovic 4,837,200
Nikola Pekovic 10,000,000
Derrick Williams 4,809,840
Derrick Williams 5,016,960
Jose Juan Barea 4,493,000
Jose Juan Barea 4,687,000
Wesley Johnson 4,285,560
Luke Ridnour 4,320,000
Luke Ridnour 4,000,000
Ricky Rubio 4,002,120
Ricky Rubio 3,741,120
Chase Budinger 3,000,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,575,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,690,875
Alexey Shved 2,470,000
Alexey Shved 2,581,150
Wayne Ellington 2,083,042
Malcolm Lee 854,389
Chase Budinger 942,293
Total 62,818,900
Malcolm Lee 762,195


Brad Miller buyout 850,000


Martell Webster buyout 600,000


Total 60,618,000


Next summer outlook: Pekovic and Budinger become Restricted Free Agents. I assume that Pek will get a contract similar to Batum, and Bud will get around 3M$. These figures can go slightly higher or lower. If the Wolves have two non-lottery first round picks, the total salaries increase to about 65M$. Under this scenario the Wolves we'll be above the cap next year, but below the luxury tax..They will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE for 5.15 M$ to sign free agents.

However, this scenario doesn't include Brandon Roy, and his 10.4M$ 2 years contract. To add Roy the Wolves need to shed at least 5M$ from their payroll. They can do it by various ways. Let's assume they trade to Portland ( or some other team ) Ridnour, the expiring contracts of Miller and Webster, and a protected 1st round pick. That will bring the following scenario:

Scenario 2:

Player 2013 Salaries _____ Player 2014 Salaries
Kevin Love 13,668,750
Kevin Love 14,693,906
Nicolas Batum 10,500,000
Nicolas Batum 10,972,500
Brandon Roy 5,200,000
Nikola Pekovic 10,000,000
Nikola Pekovic 4,837,200
Brandon Roy 5,200,000
Derrick Williams 4,809,840
Derrick Williams 5,016,960
Jose Juan Barea 4,493,000
Jose Juan Barea 4,687,000
Wesley Johnson 4,285,560
Ricky Rubio 4,002,120
Ricky Rubio 3,741,120
Chase Budinger 3,000,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,575,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,690,875
Alexey Shved 2,470,000
Alexey Shved 2,581,150
Wayne Ellington 2,083,042
Malcolm Lee 854,389
Chase Budinger 942,293
Total 63,698,900
Malcolm Lee 762,195


Total 60,368,000


Next summer outlook: If the Wolves have one non-lottery first round pick, the total salaries increase to about 65M$. Under this scenario the Wolves we'll be above the cap next year, but below the luxury tax..They will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE for 5.15 M$ to sign free agents.

What happens if they cannot get Batum ( either Portland matches the offer sheet, or the Wolves give up on a sign and trade ):

Scenario 3: without Batum

Player 2013 Salaries _____ Player 2014 Salaries
Kevin Love 13,668,750
Kevin Love 14,693,906
Brandon Roy 5,200,000
Nikola Pekovic 10,000,000
Nikola Pekovic 4,837,200
Brandon Roy 5,200,000
Derrick Williams 4,809,840
Derrick Williams 5,016,960
Jose Juan Barea 4,493,000
Jose Juan Barea 4,687,000
Wesley Johnson 4,285,560
Luke Ridnour 4,320,000
Luke Ridnour 4,000,000
Ricky Rubio 4,002,120
Ricky Rubio 3,741,120
Chase Budinger 3,000,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,575,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,690,875
Alexey Shved 2,470,000
Alexey Shved 2,581,150
Wayne Ellington 2,083,042
Malcolm Lee 854,389
Chase Budinger 942,293
Total 57,046,400
Malcolm Lee 762,195


Brad Miller buyout 850,000


Martell Webster buyout 600,000


Total 55,318,000


Next summer outlook: If the Wolves have two non-lottery first round picks, the total salaries increase to about 59.5M$. Under this scenario the Wolves we'll be slightly below the cap next year..They will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE for 5.15 M$ to sign free agents.

Based on that, the Wolves might as well sign Courtney Lee for 4-5M$. It won't make a difference on their MLE next summer

UPDATE:

Scenario 4: with Andre Iguodala

Assuming:a trade to Philadelphia of:

  • Ridnour
  • Expiring contracts of Miller and Webster

Player 2013 Salaries _____ Player 2014 Salaries
Andre Iguodala 14,718,250
Andre Iguodala 15,904,750
Kevin Love 13,668,750
Kevin Love 14,693,906
Brandon Roy 5,200,000
Nikola Pekovic 10,000,000
Nikola Pekovic 4,837,200
Brandon Roy 5,200,000
Derrick Williams 4,809,840
Derrick Williams 5,016,960
Jose Juan Barea 4,493,000
Jose Juan Barea 4,687,000
Wesley Johnson 4,285,560
Ricky Rubio 4,002,120
Ricky Rubio 3,741,120
Chase Budinger 3,000,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,575,000
Greg Stiemsma 2,690,875
Alexey Shved 2,470,000
Alexey Shved 2,581,150
Wayne Ellington 2,083,042
Malcolm Lee 854,389
Chase Budinger 942,293
Total 68,631,150
Malcolm Lee 762,195


Total 64,586,250


Next summer outlook: If the Wolves have two non-lottery first round picks, the total salaries increase to about 71M$. Under this scenario the Wolves could be slightly over the luxury tax..They will have the Taxpayer MLE, though I doubt they will use it. The Luxury Tax implications next year make this trade less likely, unless they trade JJ Barea as well for a cheap player.

UPDATE 2: Regarding Pekovic's contract next summer

In my 2014 projections, I assumed that Pek will get a 10M$ contract, and Budinger will sign for around 3M$.

If Portland or some other team will offer Pek the Max contract, then his salary becomes 13M$. That is the total amount I've allotted to Pekovic and Budinger's contracts. In that case the Wolves will have few options regarding Budinger:

  • Give up on Budinger, and let him go for free. Not too crazy about that idea. Essentially the Wolves traded a 1st round pick for a one year rental.
  • Trade away one of the existing contracts ( JJ Barea for example ), and sign Budinger instead. This is my preferred option. It keeps the Wolves under the Luxury Tax, and allows them to use the MLE to sign free agents.
  • Sign Budinger with part of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. This option could push the Wolves into Luxury tax territory, and lowers the available money to sign free agents.
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