Scenario 1: What can be done now, without any trades
Assuming:
- Miller and Webster buyouts.
- Amnesty Darko.
- Sign Shved for 3 years starting at about 2.5M$.
- Sign Stiemsma to 2 years with the Room MLE ( Stiemsma and Shved contracts can be switched ).
- Sign Batum to a 45M$ four years offer sheet:.
Player | 2013 Salaries | _____ | Player | 2014 Salaries |
Kevin Love | 13,668,750 | Kevin Love | 14,693,906 | |
Nicolas Batum | 10,500,000 | Nicolas Batum | 10,972,500 | |
Nikola Pekovic | 4,837,200 | Nikola Pekovic | 10,000,000 | |
Derrick Williams | 4,809,840 | Derrick Williams | 5,016,960 | |
Jose Juan Barea | 4,493,000 | Jose Juan Barea | 4,687,000 | |
Wesley Johnson | 4,285,560 | Luke Ridnour | 4,320,000 | |
Luke Ridnour | 4,000,000 | Ricky Rubio | 4,002,120 | |
Ricky Rubio | 3,741,120 | Chase Budinger | 3,000,000 | |
Greg Stiemsma | 2,575,000 | Greg Stiemsma | 2,690,875 | |
Alexey Shved | 2,470,000 | Alexey Shved | 2,581,150 | |
Wayne Ellington | 2,083,042 | Malcolm Lee | 854,389 | |
Chase Budinger | 942,293 | Total | 62,818,900 | |
Malcolm Lee | 762,195 | |||
Brad Miller buyout | 850,000 | |||
Martell Webster buyout | 600,000 | |||
Total | 60,618,000 |
Next summer outlook: Pekovic and Budinger become Restricted Free Agents. I assume that Pek will get a contract similar to Batum, and Bud will get around 3M$. These figures can go slightly higher or lower. If the Wolves have two non-lottery first round picks, the total salaries increase to about 65M$. Under this scenario the Wolves we'll be above the cap next year, but below the luxury tax..They will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE for 5.15 M$ to sign free agents.
However, this scenario doesn't include Brandon Roy, and his 10.4M$ 2 years contract. To add Roy the Wolves need to shed at least 5M$ from their payroll. They can do it by various ways. Let's assume they trade to Portland ( or some other team ) Ridnour, the expiring contracts of Miller and Webster, and a protected 1st round pick. That will bring the following scenario:
Scenario 2:
Player | 2013 Salaries | _____ | Player | 2014 Salaries |
Kevin Love | 13,668,750 | Kevin Love | 14,693,906 | |
Nicolas Batum | 10,500,000 | Nicolas Batum | 10,972,500 | |
Brandon Roy | 5,200,000 | Nikola Pekovic | 10,000,000 | |
Nikola Pekovic | 4,837,200 | Brandon Roy | 5,200,000 | |
Derrick Williams | 4,809,840 | Derrick Williams | 5,016,960 | |
Jose Juan Barea | 4,493,000 | Jose Juan Barea | 4,687,000 | |
Wesley Johnson | 4,285,560 | Ricky Rubio | 4,002,120 | |
Ricky Rubio | 3,741,120 | Chase Budinger | 3,000,000 | |
Greg Stiemsma | 2,575,000 | Greg Stiemsma | 2,690,875 | |
Alexey Shved | 2,470,000 | Alexey Shved | 2,581,150 | |
Wayne Ellington | 2,083,042 | Malcolm Lee | 854,389 | |
Chase Budinger | 942,293 | Total | 63,698,900 | |
Malcolm Lee | 762,195 | |||
Total | 60,368,000 |
Next summer outlook: If the Wolves have one non-lottery first round pick, the total salaries increase to about 65M$. Under this scenario the Wolves we'll be above the cap next year, but below the luxury tax..They will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE for 5.15 M$ to sign free agents.
What happens if they cannot get Batum ( either Portland matches the offer sheet, or the Wolves give up on a sign and trade ):
Scenario 3: without Batum
Player | 2013 Salaries | _____ | Player | 2014 Salaries |
Kevin Love | 13,668,750 | Kevin Love | 14,693,906 | |
Brandon Roy | 5,200,000 | Nikola Pekovic | 10,000,000 | |
Nikola Pekovic | 4,837,200 | Brandon Roy | 5,200,000 | |
Derrick Williams | 4,809,840 | Derrick Williams | 5,016,960 | |
Jose Juan Barea | 4,493,000 | Jose Juan Barea | 4,687,000 | |
Wesley Johnson | 4,285,560 | Luke Ridnour | 4,320,000 | |
Luke Ridnour | 4,000,000 | Ricky Rubio | 4,002,120 | |
Ricky Rubio | 3,741,120 | Chase Budinger | 3,000,000 | |
Greg Stiemsma | 2,575,000 | Greg Stiemsma | 2,690,875 | |
Alexey Shved | 2,470,000 | Alexey Shved | 2,581,150 | |
Wayne Ellington | 2,083,042 | Malcolm Lee | 854,389 | |
Chase Budinger | 942,293 | Total | 57,046,400 | |
Malcolm Lee | 762,195 | |||
Brad Miller buyout | 850,000 | |||
Martell Webster buyout | 600,000 | |||
Total | 55,318,000 |
Next summer outlook: If the Wolves have two non-lottery first round picks, the total salaries increase to about 59.5M$. Under this scenario the Wolves we'll be slightly below the cap next year..They will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE for 5.15 M$ to sign free agents.
Based on that, the Wolves might as well sign Courtney Lee for 4-5M$. It won't make a difference on their MLE next summer
UPDATE:
Scenario 4: with Andre Iguodala
Assuming:a trade to Philadelphia of:
- Ridnour
- Expiring contracts of Miller and Webster
Player | 2013 Salaries | _____ | Player | 2014 Salaries |
Andre Iguodala | 14,718,250 | Andre Iguodala | 15,904,750 | |
Kevin Love | 13,668,750 | Kevin Love | 14,693,906 | |
Brandon Roy | 5,200,000 | Nikola Pekovic | 10,000,000 | |
Nikola Pekovic | 4,837,200 | Brandon Roy | 5,200,000 | |
Derrick Williams | 4,809,840 | Derrick Williams | 5,016,960 | |
Jose Juan Barea | 4,493,000 | Jose Juan Barea | 4,687,000 | |
Wesley Johnson | 4,285,560 | Ricky Rubio | 4,002,120 | |
Ricky Rubio | 3,741,120 | Chase Budinger | 3,000,000 | |
Greg Stiemsma | 2,575,000 | Greg Stiemsma | 2,690,875 | |
Alexey Shved | 2,470,000 | Alexey Shved | 2,581,150 | |
Wayne Ellington | 2,083,042 | Malcolm Lee | 854,389 | |
Chase Budinger | 942,293 | Total | 68,631,150 | |
Malcolm Lee | 762,195 | |||
Total | 64,586,250 |
Next summer outlook: If the Wolves have two non-lottery first round picks, the total salaries increase to about 71M$. Under this scenario the Wolves could be slightly over the luxury tax..They will have the Taxpayer MLE, though I doubt they will use it. The Luxury Tax implications next year make this trade less likely, unless they trade JJ Barea as well for a cheap player.
UPDATE 2: Regarding Pekovic's contract next summer
In my 2014 projections, I assumed that Pek will get a 10M$ contract, and Budinger will sign for around 3M$.
If Portland or some other team will offer Pek the Max contract, then his salary becomes 13M$. That is the total amount I've allotted to Pekovic and Budinger's contracts. In that case the Wolves will have few options regarding Budinger:
- Give up on Budinger, and let him go for free. Not too crazy about that idea. Essentially the Wolves traded a 1st round pick for a one year rental.
- Trade away one of the existing contracts ( JJ Barea for example ), and sign Budinger instead. This is my preferred option. It keeps the Wolves under the Luxury Tax, and allows them to use the MLE to sign free agents.
- Sign Budinger with part of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. This option could push the Wolves into Luxury tax territory, and lowers the available money to sign free agents.