Using the player data at NBA Geek and pulling each team's starting five (plus sixth man) from the depth charts at ESPN (with a dash of common sense), I took a stab at projecting each teams' finish next year.
(Insert caveat's and mea culpa's here. Some of the biggies:
- I used last year's WP numbers. If a former NBA player didn't play last year (Kirilenko, for instance), I used the WP numbers from 2011. If a team is expected to give a rookie extended playing time, I penciled the rookie in for .05 WP/48, except for Kidd-Gilchrist (.100), and Anthony Davis (.150).
- I used my own judgement to pick each team's sixth man.
- I gave little to no credit to any team's bench, to the detriment of deep teams like the wolves and knicks (esp. the knicks)
- If a player is injured to start the year (Rubio, Avery Bradley, D. Rose), I left them off entirely.
- If you add up all the wins, you get three more than exist in a regular-length season. Feel free to take those three wins away from a team you don't like.)
All that said, there are some big take-aways from this game: In the east: Brooklyn probably won't make the playoffs, Milwaukee should, and New York's bench is scary good. In the west: Denver joins OKC in the title hunt, the Lakers won't be as good as the pundits think, and you can pencil in our Pups for a four (4!) seed. Numbers after the jump.
Eastern Conference | |||
Team | Projected W-L | Strength | Weakness |
Miami | 64-18 | Best player in the world |
Interior size |
Milwakuee | 49-33 | No one goes into Milwaukee thinking they could lose | Trigger-happy backcourt |
Indiana | 46-36 | Balance | Balance |
Boston | 46-36 | Perimeter D | Offensive-rebounding |
Chicago | 45-37 | Interior D | D. Rose-less back-court is feeble |
NYC | 44-38 | Tyson Chandler | Playing the wrong players |
Philadelphia | 43-39 | High-scoring front-court | Three-point shooting |
Atlanta | 41-41 | Inside-Outside Game | Guard passing |
Cleveland | 38-44 | Kyrie Irving | Varejao will be traded for less than he's worth |
Brooklyn | 38-44 | Quadrillionaire owner | Expectations exceed talent |
Washington | 36-46 | No bad players | No good players |
Detroit | 33-49 | Post-play | Everything foul-line extended |
Charlotte | 29-53 | Rookies with hyphen-ated last-names | Yup |
Orlando | 25-57 | No expectations | Putting faith in the "Ewing Theory" but not in Ewing |
Toronto | 25-57 | Kyle Lowry | Letting Bargnani and DeRozan onto the court |
Western Conference | |||
Team | Projected W-L | Strength | Weakness |
Denver | 61-21 | Athleticism at altitude | George Karl's Rotations |
OKC | 59-23 | Superstars at three positions | Team is better when it plays small |
San Antonio | 55-27 | Passing | Protecting the rim |
Minnesota | 50-32 | Rebounding | Question marks at the 2-spot |
LA Clippers | 47-35 | Chris Mf-ing Paul | Slow on the wing |
Utah | 46-36 | Interior depth | Starting Mo Williams |
Memphis | 45-37 | Tough, physical team | Talent falls off a cliff after starting five |
LA Lakers | 45-37 | Inside-outside game | Kobe still has the keys to the car |
New Orleans | 39-43 | Anderson-Davis frontcourt | Eric Gordon's contract |
Sacramento | 36-46 | Shot-blocking | Shot-taking |
Portland | 35-47 | One-on-one scoring | Sharing the ball |
Dallas | 34-48 | A lot of these players used to be good | Not many of them still are |
Phoenix | 30-52 | Dragic-Gortat pick'n'roll | That's the only offensive option they have |
Houston | 25-57 | Some of their rookies might end up being capable pros someday | Swung for the fences and missed |
Golden State | 25-57 | Steph Curry |
Every other starter |
If you want to muck about more, you can view a fugly PDF of the work here. If you want to know the results if I swap players, like trading D-will for Varejao, let me know in the comments.
Cheers.