vjl110's Draft Data: Comparisons, Expected Peak Values, Star-Starter-Bust Likelihoods

Last Year's Draft Board - Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

vjl110 presents us with his combined efforts in one place below, which allow us to examine 2013 draftees through several different measurable lenses. We'll keep this handy for reference throughout the process. Go nuts folks.

JUNE 10th EDIT: Moved this back to the cover because of the new chart at the bottom of the article, that compiles all of the data and shows a few changes in the model. Go C.J. McCollum!-- EiM.

2013 NBA Draft Summary:

This post is a collection of my different draft projection models/tools and their results for the 2013 draft class. I wanted to put them all in one place where I can reference and update them in the future. Below we have two "Expected Win-Peak" models, one using a deep dataset but lacking in combine data, appreciation for the distinction between offensive and defensive rebounds, and subject to the faults of Win Shares as a catch-all player evaluation metric, and another model that includes more detailed information and uses an RAPM-based evaluation metric but only draws from players in this millennium. There is also another projection model that focuses on 'likelihood of becoming a bust/bench/starter/star" rather than projecting exact win performance. Finally, there are two different comparison model results. One looks only at the physical profile of prospects and compares them to well-known players, while the other draws on all of the available information to identify the best player-comparisons in the past 30 years.

If you want to jump right into the numbers, here is a link to the google spreadsheet with results for NBA draft prospects from 1981 to 2014.

Expected Win-Peak Models:

These models use historical data to predict how many wins a prospect will be responsible for during his best season. The methodology is based on multilinear regression. These models identify how things like college production, size, age, and level of competition helps explain the actual NBA performance of past prospects, they then use this knowledge to generate predictions for future NBA players based on how they look across those measures.

Winshare model (1981 to 2012)
The first model uses individual collegiate box-score statistics (points, rebounds, steals...), height, weight, age, and competitive context (team's rating and strength of schedule as well as era in which players played) to predict NBA "win shares" during a player's season of peak performance. This dataset draws information from players going all the way back to 1981.

RAPM model (2002 to 2012)

The second model uses individual collegiate box-score statistics (points, rebounds, steals...), measurements collected at the NBA pre-draft combine (standing reach, vertical jump...), age, and competitive context (team's rating and strength of schedule) to predict NBA "RAPM wins above replacement" during a player's season of peak performance. This dataset includes information starting with players selected in the 2002 draft.



Expected Wins

Name WS RAPM AVG
1 Nerlens Noel 10.8 14.4 12.6
2 Cody Zeller 8.8 8.5 8.7
3 Otto Porter 9.3 7.2 8.3
4 C.J. McCollum 8.4 8.1 8.3
5 Trey Burke 7.4 8.7 8.1
6 Victor Oladipo 7.1 7.0 7.1
7 Nate Wolters 7.4 6.2 6.8
8 Michael Carter-Williams 5.3 8.1 6.7
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6.8 4.2 5.5
10 Steven Adams 4.6 5.5 5.1
11 Mike Muscala 5.5 3.8 4.7
12 Ben McLemore 4.5 4.0 4.3
13 Kelly Olynyk 5.4 2.3 3.9
14 Anthony Bennett 3.8
3.8
15 Andre Roberson 4.9 2.0 3.5
16 Jamaal Franklin 2.4 4.5 3.5
17 Tony Johnson 3.3
3.3
18 Shane Larkin 3.9 1.9 2.9
19 Taylor Smith 2.9
2.9
20 Lorenzo Brown 2.9 1.7 2.3
21 Arsalan Kazemi 2.8 1.5 2.2
22 Alex Len 2.6 1.5 2.1
23 Archie Goodwin 1.7 2.1 1.9
24 Jack Cooley 1.8
1.8
25 Tony Mitchell '13 1.8
1.8
26 Pierre Jackson 1.8 1.6 1.7
27 Mason Plumlee 1.1 2.2 1.7
28 Ryan Broekhoff 1.6 1.6 1.6
29 Ray McCallum 2.1 1.0 1.6
30 Erick Green 2.7 0.1 1.4
31 Glen Rice '13 1.2
1.2
32 Allen Crabbe 1.3 0.9 1.1
33 Jeff Withey 1.5 0.7 1.1
34 B.J. Young 1.4 0.6 1.0
35 Robert Covington 1.0 0.8 0.9
36 C.J. Leslie 1.4 0.3 0.9
37 Isaiah Canaan 0.5 1.2 0.9
38 Zeke Marshall 0.8
0.8
39 D.J. Stephens 0.7 0.8 0.8
40 Elias Harris 0.4 1.0 0.7
41 Gorgui Dieng 0.3 1.0 0.7
42 Reggie Bullock 0.5 0.7 0.6
43 Deshaun Thomas 1.1 0.0 0.6
44 Myck Kabongo 0.9 0.2 0.6
45 Rodney Williams 0.5
0.5
46 Shabazz Muhammad 0.9 0.1 0.5
47 Solomon Hill 0.4 0.6 0.5
48 James Ennis 0.3 0.6 0.5
49 Anthony Marshall 0.4
0.4
50 Richard Howell 0.4
0.4
51 Adonis Thomas 0.3
0.3
52 Charles Carmouche 0.3
0.3
53 Vander Blue 0.6 0.0 0.3
54 Jackie Carmichael 0.4 0.1 0.3
55 Erik Murphy 0.0 0.4 0.2
56 Phil Pressey 0.2 0.2 0.2
57 Tim Hardaway Jr. 0.2
0.2
58 Brandon Paul 0.2 0.1 0.2
59 Trevor Mbakwe 0.2 0.1 0.2
60 Colton Iverson 0.1
0.1
61 Leonard Washington 0.1
0.1
62 Carrick Felix 0.0 0.0 0.0
63 DeWayne Dedmon 0.0
0.0
64 Michael Snaer 0.0 0.0 0.0
65 Seth Curry 0.0 0.0 0.0


Bust or Star? Model

The "Bust or Star? model" is constructed from the same 1981 to 2012 dataset as the "Win Share model" above, but rather than trying to estimate a precise "peak win production" it estimates the likelihood that a player will become either a "bust", a 'bench-warmer", a "starter", or a "star".



Star Likelihood

Name BUST BNCH STRT STAR
1 Trey Burke 12% 15% 40% 33%
2 Nerlens Noel 4% 20% 56% 20%
3 Otto Porter 11% 23% 47% 18%
4 Victor Oladipo 15% 31% 38% 16%
5 C.J. McCollum 21% 20% 48% 11%
6 Cody Zeller 16% 35% 41% 9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 19% 29% 45% 7%
8 Kelly Olynyk 23% 35% 36% 7%
9 Nate Wolters 41% 21% 32% 6%
10 Michael Carter-Williams 41% 24% 29% 5%
11 Shane Larkin 41% 29% 25% 5%
12 Ben McLemore 27% 40% 28% 4%
13 Mike Muscala 23% 20% 54% 3%
14 Anthony Bennett 27% 38% 32% 3%
15 Taylor Smith 44% 34% 19% 3%
16 Steven Adams 25% 43% 31% 2%
17 Jamaal Franklin 45% 26% 26% 2%
18 Ray McCallum 73% 14% 12% 2%
19 Andre Roberson 38% 33% 29% 1%
20 Alex Len 44% 34% 21% 1%
21 Pierre Jackson 56% 24% 19% 1%
22 Jeff Withey 50% 33% 17% 1%
23 Erick Green 58% 24% 17% 1%
24 Tony Johnson 60% 23% 16% 1%
25 Reggie Bullock 54% 30% 15% 1%
26 Archie Goodwin 62% 21% 15% 1%
27 Allen Crabbe 57% 29% 14% 1%
28 D.J. Stephens 58% 28% 14% 1%
29 Zeke Marshall 51% 35% 13% 1%
30 Myck Kabongo 68% 20% 12% 1%
31 B.J. Young 72% 16% 10% 1%
32 Jack Cooley 51% 31% 18% 0%
33 Arsalan Kazemi 55% 28% 16% 0%
34 Ryan Broekhoff 59% 25% 16% 0%
35 Glen Rice '13 62% 24% 14% 0%
36 Gorgui Dieng 62% 24% 14% 0%
37 Mason Plumlee 51% 36% 13% 0%
38 Richard Howell 64% 26% 10% 0%
39 James Ennis 68% 22% 10% 0%
40 Lorenzo Brown 69% 20% 10% 0%
41 Robert Covington 73% 17% 10% 0%
42 Deshaun Thomas 63% 28% 9% 0%
43 Trevor Mbakwe 64% 27% 9% 0%
44 Elias Harris 69% 21% 9% 0%
45 Erik Murphy 64% 28% 8% 0%
46 Shabazz Muhammad 65% 27% 8% 0%
47 Jackie Carmichael 67% 25% 8% 0%
48 Isaiah Canaan 75% 17% 8% 0%
49 Brandon Paul 75% 17% 8% 0%
50 Solomon Hill 72% 21% 7% 0%
51 C.J. Leslie 69% 25% 6% 0%
52 Tim Hardaway Jr. 71% 22% 6% 0%
53 Adonis Thomas 75% 19% 6% 0%
54 Tony Mitchell '13 77% 16% 6% 0%
55 Charles Carmouche 81% 12% 6% 0%
56 Colton Iverson 62% 33% 5% 0%
57 Vander Blue 74% 20% 5% 0%
58 Rodney Williams 75% 19% 5% 0%
59 Phil Pressey 78% 16% 5% 0%
60 Anthony Marshall 83% 12% 5% 0%
61 Seth Curry 76% 20% 4% 0%
62 Carrick Felix 78% 18% 4% 0%
63 Leonard Washington 86% 11% 3% 0%
64 DeWayne Dedmon 86% 11% 3% 0%
65 Michael Snaer 86% 12% 2% 0%


Player Comparisons

These models use statistical information to find which NBA players make the best comparisons for each prospect. I recommend you use these to help form a picture of the player in your head and maybe help develop expectations for what the prospect needs to do in order to suceed and what paths may lead towards failure.

Statistical comparison:
This model uses the same 1981 to 2012 dataset employed in the models above. It finds the players who's collegiate box score stats, size, competitive context, and expected NBA performance were on average the most similar to each prospect. Comparisons are listed with the most similar first and the eighth most similar last.


Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Comp4 Comp5
Adonis Thomas Jawad Williams Keith Langford Malik Hairston Kevin Brooks Kelenna Azubuike
Alex Len Meyers Leonard Loren Woods Jon Koncak Channing Frye DeAndre Jordan
Allen Crabbe Antoine Wright Doug West Maurice Ager Rodney Carney Michael Finley
Andre Roberson Ryan Bowen Renaldo Balkman James Singleton Chuck Hayes Damion James
Anthony Bennett Brandon Bass Jumaine Jones Quincy Acy Trevor Booker Jeff Adrien
Anthony Marshall Jeremy Pargo Will Conroy Diante Garrett Ben Hansbrough Drew Barry
Archie Goodwin Steve Smith Tony Dumas Richard Jefferson Greg Graham Travis Mays
Arsalan Kazemi Jerome Williams Damion James James Augustine DeMarre Carroll Ryan Bowen
B.J. Young Armon Johnson Dell Demps Rodney Monroe A.J. Guyton Cory Alexander
Ben McLemore James Anderson Jeremy Lamb Chase Budinger Todd Lichti Shannon Brown
Brandon Paul Matt Walsh Allan Houston Voshon Lenard Cuttino Mobley Travis Mays
C.J. Leslie Hakim Warrick Hot Rod Williams Al Thornton Buck Johnson Antonio Lang
C.J. McCollum Damian Lillard Marcus Brown Joseph Forte Iman Shumpert Manny Harris
Carrick Felix Keith Askins Chris Johnson Mychel Thompson Wesley Johnson Eric Washington
Charles Carmouche Jerry Smith Oliver Lafayette Rick Brunson James Collins Cuttino Mobley
Cody Zeller Brad Daugherty Adam Keefe Troy Murphy Lorenzen Wright Danny Manning
Colton Iverson Geert Hammink Jerome Jordan Casey Shaw Ben Davis Mark Madsen
D.J. Stephens Jeremy Evans Tim Perry Lavoy Allen Duane Causwell Marcus Cousin
Deshaun Thomas Jawad Williams Jimmy Butler Desmond Mason Dan Langhi Greg Minor
DeWayne Dedmon Mark Pope Dan Gadzuric Miles Plumlee Chris Johnson Taj Gibson
Elias Harris Eduardo Najera Mike Scott J.R. Giddens Carl Herrera Al Thornton
Erick Green Dedric Willoughby Chris Smith Nolan Smith Litterial Green Cory Higgins
Erik Murphy Dave Popson Keith Askins Chris Johnson Lance Thomas David Wood
Glen Rice '13 Kyle Singler Tyrone Nesby Antoine Wright Chris Mills Scott Burrell
Gorgui Dieng Ekpe Udoh Brad Lohaus Ivano Newbill Eric Mobley Miles Plumlee
Grant Jerret Antoine Carr Byron Scott Dale Ellis Dominique Wilkins Jeff Malone
Isaiah Canaan Chucky Atkins Bobby Brown DeJuan Wheat Chris Smith Tony Bennett
Jack Cooley Jeff Pendergraph Jon Brockman Mark Madsen Loy Vaught Michael Smith
Jackie Carmichael Mark Bryant Sharrod Ford Lonny Baxter Ben Davis Louis Amundson
Jamaal Franklin Chris Carr Othyus Jeffers Matt Harpring Keith Booth Dominique Jones
James Ennis Rawle Marshall Devin Green Gary Forbes Dijon Thompson Cedric Henderson
Jeff Withey Calvin Booth Ekpe Udoh Roy Rogers Ken Johnson '01 Keith Benson
Kelly Olynyk Michael Bradley Rich King Bryant Reeves Will Perdue Kirk Haston
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Korver Rodney Buford Tony Delk Richard Hamilton Anthony Parker
Leonard Washington Eduardo Najera Taj Gibson Mark Pope Louis Amundson Carl Herrera
Lorenzo Brown Jon Barry Kevin Pritchard Drew Barry Jason Hart Eric Snow
Mason Plumlee Sam Perkins Sean Rooks Zendon Hamilton Les Jepsen Rich Manning
Michael Carter-Williams Nate McMillan Andre Miller Everette Stephens Jason Terry Greg Anthony
Michael Snaer Cuttino Mobley Raja Bell Andre Owens Alvin Williams Scott Haffner
Mike Muscala Curtis Borchardt Jason Thompson Nick Fazekas Carlos Rogers Keith Benson
Myck Kabongo A.J. Price Andre Barrett John Celestand Jerome Allen Jarrett Jack
Nate Wolters Damian Lillard Lucious Harris Devin Harris Jerome Allen Fred Hoiberg
Nerlens Noel Anthony Davis Benoit Benjamin Eddie Griffin Emeka Okafor Tyrus Thomas
Otto Porter Mike Miller Josh Childress Jared Dudley Jason Richardson Joe Johnson
Peyton Siva Jacque Vaughn Chris Corchiani Charlie Ward Wayne Turner Kevin Pritchard
Phil Pressey Jason Hart Aaron Miles Luke Ridnour Michael Hawkins Dee Brown '06
Pierre Jackson Isaiah Thomas Luke Ridnour Dee Brown '06 Tyson Wheeler Andre Barrett
Ray McCallum Vinny Del Negro Kiwane Garris Jerome Dyson Lucious Harris Derek Fisher
Reggie Bullock Greg Minor Matt Carroll Chris Johnson '12 Mike Hall Anthony Morrow
Richard Howell Darnell Jackson Anthony Miller Mark Madsen Harold Jamison Jon Brockman
Robert Covington Chris Singleton Devin Green Scott Burrell James Jones Josh Howard
Rodney Williams Sam Young Derrick Brown Kevin Gamble Chris King Jeff Trepagnier
Ryan Broekhoff Rasual Butler Wesley Johnson Brandon Rush Derrick Dial Mychel Thompson
Seth Curry Salim Stoudamire Dedric Willoughby Anthony Roberson Matt Carroll Trajan Langdon
Shabazz Muhammad Kelenna Azubuike Jarvis Hayes Harrison Barnes Kevin Brooks Adam Morrison
Shane Larkin Darren Collison Nick Van Exel Adonis Jordan Dee Brown '06 Dana Barros
Solomon Hill Keith Bogans Kris Joseph James White Jeff Taylor '12 Tarence Kinsey
Steven Adams Ed Davis Emeka Okafor Tony Battie Andre Drummond Lorenzen Wright
Taylor Smith Ryan Humphrey Cherokee Parks Sam Perkins P.J. Brown Armen Gilliam
Tim Hardaway Jr. Joe Crawford Maurice Ager Dijon Thompson Rodney Monroe Tarence Kinsey
Tony Johnson Tim Hardaway Chris Duhon Moochie Norris Micheal Williams Tate George
Tony Mitchell '13 Cal Bowdler Steven Smith Anthony Tolliver Quincy Acy Greg Anderson
Travon Woodall Antoine Carr Byron Scott Dale Ellis Dominique Wilkins Jeff Malone
Trevor Mbakwe Mark Madsen Taj Gibson Eric Mobley Louis Amundson Sharrod Ford
Trey Burke Ty Lawson Lee Mayberry B.J. Armstrong D.J. Augustin Terrell Brandon
Vander Blue Tim Legler Austin Rivers Gerald Fitch Roger Mason Malcolm Lee
Victor Oladipo Josh Howard Adrian Griffin Laron Profit Eddie Basden Stacey Augmon
Zeke Marshall Keith Benson Duane Causwell Solomon Alabi Roy Rogers Marcus Cousin

Physical Comparisons

These comparisons use only draft combine measurements to find the NBA players with the most similar physical profile to each prospect. These comparisons do not care how the prospect actually puts those physical tools to use relative to possible comparisons, but only how his size, length, speed, agility, and jumping ability compare to NBA players. The chart below lists the closest physical comparison for each prospect and then gives two additional measures "SIZE" and "ATHL" to help expand on that comparison. The numbers in the "SIZE" and "ATHL" give the average standard deviation difference between the prospect and the comparison in terms of size (height, wingspan, reach, weight, and bench) and athleticism (agility, sprint, and vertical) respectively. This allows you to say for instance "Ben McLemore looks physically similar to what Brandon Roy did coming out of college, but he isn't quite as big (-0.28 of a standard deviation smaller) or athletic (-0.35 of a standard deviation less athletic)".

[Note: Players who did not participate in the pre-draft combine do not have the necessary data to compute physical comparisons so there comps are left blank until those measurements become available]

Name Comp SIZE ATHL
Alex Len


Allen Crabbe Danny Granger -0.45 0.21
Andre Roberson John Salmons -0.03 -0.07
Archie Goodwin Daequan Cook -0.21 0.18
B.J. Young


Ben McLemore Brandon Roy -0.28 -0.35
Brandon Paul Damian Lillard 0.44 -0.15
C.J. Leslie


Cody Zeller Harrison Barnes 0.43 -0.29
Dennis Schroeder Devin Harris -0.29 -0.32
Deshaun Thomas Caron Butler 0.07 -0.52
Erick Green


Erik Murphy Spencer Hawes -0.07 -0.34
Gorgui Dieng


Isaiah Canaan Jonny Flynn 0.2 0
Jackie Carmichael Terrence Jones -0.12 -0.15
Jamaal Franklin


James Ennis Josh Childress -0.15 0.22
Jeff Withey Spencer Hawes -0.07 -0.15
Kelly Olynyk Brian Cook -0.19 -0.07
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Jrue Holiday 0.2 0.26
Lorenzo Brown Jordan Crawford -0.02 -0.73
Mason Plumlee Jason Smith 0.1 -0.34
Michael Carter-Williams O.J. Mayo 0.07 0.1
Mike Muscala LaMarcus Aldridge -0.39 0.19
Myck Kabongo J.J. Redick -0.29 0.07
Nate Wolters


Nerlens Noel


Otto Porter Josh Childress 0.12 0.1
Phil Pressey Kemba Walker -0.2 0.08
Pierre Jackson


Ray McCallum Jonny Flynn -0.24 -0.24
Reggie Bullock John Salmons -0.23 0.08
Richard Howell


Robert Covington Renaldo Balkman 0.16 -0.29
Rudy Gobert Brook Lopez 0.08 -0.36
Shabazz Muhammad Luke Babbitt -0.35 0.11
Shane Larkin Nate Robinson -0.18 -0.23
Solomon Hill Tobias Harris -0.02 -0.13
Steven Adams Andrew Bogut 0.2 0.35
Tim Hardaway Tony Allen -0.26 -0.03
Tony Snell Xavier Henry -0.1 0.33
Trey Burke Devin Harris -0.15 -0.14
Vander Blue Jrue Holiday -0.15 0.44
Victor Oladipo Tony Allen -0.16 0.41

Full Data:

Same numbers as above, but lumped together in one friendly image file:

G1reepd_medium

To help contextualize the model results here is a link to the google document with numbers for all players in my data.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Canis Hoopus

You must be a member of Canis Hoopus to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Canis Hoopus. You should read them.

Join Canis Hoopus

You must be a member of Canis Hoopus to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Canis Hoopus. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker