This one is dedicated to VJL110. He is my favorite basketball writer on the internet and really got me into this site with
all you crazy smart wolves fans. I'm trying to get more into stats and shit so forgive me if this comes off as pedestrian but
I can only work with what I know which so far from my studies is PER and Win Shares.
So I was chilling on my futon and it occurred to me the ROY race this year completely sucks. MCW? The last few weeks they should change his nickname to MIA. Giannis? I love him, he's a true Buck, but let's be real most of ya'll are more excited about what he can be down the damn road. Steven Adams? Cool dude, nice piece, but ROY? STFU. 'Vicky' Oladipo? Please. Dude couldn't jizz on a broad side of a barn even if he had Dirk Diggler's unit and Shabbaz Muhammad's stamina.
Then I lit a bowl and thought about it longer and thought...well how bad is it? Then I thought of my hero VJL110 and said "the VJL wouldn't sit around wondering. He'd turn to the stats." So I did.
I started checking out PER and WS only for the last 25 years to get a feel for the benchmark an ideal ROY campaign has to hit. These are the only two advanced stats I understand. If you don't like them, I suggest you go watch Netflix or something.
After looking at all the dudes it appears that at a minimum to be a candidate for ROY you need to post:
A PER of at least 15.0 combined with at least 4.0 WS.
24 out of 27 ROY winners have hit that G-Spot and walked away with the trophy. A 15 PER, 4 win shares. It puts you in the running at the very least.
In 2000-2001 Mike Miller averaged a 13.2 PER with 5.3 WS.
In 2007-2008 Kevin Durant averaged a 15.8 PER with 2.3 WS.
In 1994-1995 Jason Kidd averaged a 15.1 PER with 3.7 WS
The important thing to note ya'll is that these guys hit one of the benchmarks just not both. According to my model (yeah, yeah I know it's not a real model and I'm an idiot but it's all I understand) these are the three worst ROY campaigns.
But 2013-2014 could be the first year where nobody who wins the award hits either of these benchmarks.
MCW is at a 15.0 PER that falls every day with 0.4 WS. He's not getting there.
Giannis is at a 11.4 PER with 1.2 WS.
Adams has a 11.1 PER and 2.1 WS.
Vicky has a 13.4 PER and 1.2 WS.
Trey Burke has a 12.3 PER and 0.6 WS.
Mason Plumlee is at 17.9 and 2.7 WS. According to my model he should be the ROY hands down. But we all know he's not going to get it. He's also only playing 15 minutes of roundball a game and doesn't do much of the heavy lifting.
So I guess what I learned is sometimes your gut can tell you "hey this is a really shitty year for rookies" but if you don't bother to put in the work you're just a phony like Bill Simmons. Be like VJL110 ya'll.
Source: Basketball Reference
2012-2013: Damian Lillard, 16.4 PER 5.8 WS
2011-2012: Kyrie Irving, 21.4 PER 4.1 WS
2010-2011: Blake Griffin, 21.9 PER 9.8 WS
2009-2010: Tyreke Evans, 18.2 PER 5.4 WS
2008-2009: Derrick Rose, 16.0 PER 4.9 WS
2007-2008: KEVIN DURANT, 15.8 PER 2.3 WS
2006-2007: Brandon Roy, 18.0 PER 4.0 WS
2005-2006: Chris Paul, 22.1 PER 10.4 WS (co-sign)
2003-2004: Lebron James, 18.3 PER 5.1 WS
2002-2003: Amar'e Stoudemire, 16.2 PER, 6.2 WS
2001-2002: Pau Gasol, 19.5 PER 7.6 WS
2000-2001: MIKE MILLER, 13.2 PER 5.3 WS
1999-2000: Steve Francis, 18.4 PER, 6.4 WS Elton Brand, 20.6 PER 7.5 WS
1998-1999: Vince Carter, 19.6 PER 5.0 WS
1997-1998: Tim Duncan, 22.6 PER 12.8 WS (co-sign)
1996-1997: Allen Iverson, 18.0 PER 4.1 WS
1995-1996: Damon Stoudemire, 16.7 PER 4.3 WS
1994-1995: Grant Hill 19.0 PER 5.4 WS JASON KIDD 15.1 PER 3.7 WS
1993-1994: Chris Webber 21.7 PER 7.8 WS
1992-1993: Shaquille O' Neal, 22.9 PER 10.4 WS (co-sign)
1991-1992: Larry Johnson, 18.9 PER 8.9 WS
1990-1991: Derrick Coleman, 17.6 PER 5.8 WS
1989-1990: David Robinson, 26.3 PER 15.4 WS (no co-sign dude was like 25 years old already)
1988-1989: Mitch Richmond, 17.2 PER 5.6 WS
(On a side note, VJL110 you should consider changing your name to VIJ cuz it really rolls off the tongue better when you say it out loud)