A betting man would say that the Timberwolves will select 13th in loaded upcoming draft. The 1.8% chance that Phoenix moves into the top 3 is so unlikely that no reasonable man would be overly worried about that potential outcome.
On the other hand, no man of reason would ever subject themselves to the pain that is being a fan of Timberwolves. So before we start talking about how McDermott is going to be the savior of this franchise, let's look at two most amazingly depressing statistics ever about the Timberwolves and the atrocity that is the NBA Lottery:
Based on the number of times and position the Timberwolves have been in the lottery, the likelihood that the Timberwolves would have received the #1 pick at least ONCE in their 25 year history is 84.77%.
In addition to that, the likelihood that the Timberwolves would have moved up at least ONCE in their 25 year history is 93.07%.
If I were to try to factor in the probability that the Timberwolves would actually select a quality player in the draft if they ever did move up, my head might explode. However, that is a completely different complaint for another thread.
I am not quite ready to write off 1.8% give our past history of terrible luck. What do you think? Are we jumping the gun on assuming we will get the 13th pick, or is this the year the basketball gods finally looks favorably upon us and give us Wiggins.
1990
10.61% chance to win the Lottery
10.61% chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 5th to 6th
1991
7.58% chance to win the Lottery
7.58% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 7th
1992
16.67% chance to win the Lottery
N/A - chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 1st to 3rd
1993
15.15% chance to win the Lottery
15.15% chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 2nd to 5th
1994
16.41% chance to win the Lottery
32.82% chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 3rd to 4th
1995
18.20% chance to win the Lottery
36.07% chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 3rd to 5th
1996
12.98% chance to win the Lottery
25.89% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 5th
2005
0.50% chance to win the Lottery
1.81% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 14th
2006
5.30% chance to win the Lottery
18.28% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 6th
2007
5.30% chance to win the Lottery
18.30% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 7th
2008
13.80% chance to win the Lottery
28.04% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 3rd
2009
7.60% chance to win the Lottery
25.49% chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 5th to 6th
2010
19.90% chance to win the Lottery
19.90% chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 2nd to 4th
2011
25.0% chance to win the Lottery
N/A - chance to move up
Outcome – Dropped from 1st to 2nd
2012 (pick was traded prior to Lottery – Flynn you Marco Jaric)
1.1% chance to win the Lottery
4.0% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 10th
2013
1.7% chance to win the Lottery
6.1% chance to move up
Outcome – Stayed put at 9th
2014
0% chance to win the Lottery
100% chance our pick goes to Phoenix
Outcome – Love leaves Minnesota