FanPost

Lottrocity - The pending 1.8% disaster and a history depressing statistics.

A betting man would say that the Timberwolves will select 13th in loaded upcoming draft. The 1.8% chance that Phoenix moves into the top 3 is so unlikely that no reasonable man would be overly worried about that potential outcome.

On the other hand, no man of reason would ever subject themselves to the pain that is being a fan of Timberwolves. So before we start talking about how McDermott is going to be the savior of this franchise, let's look at two most amazingly depressing statistics ever about the Timberwolves and the atrocity that is the NBA Lottery:

Based on the number of times and position the Timberwolves have been in the lottery, the likelihood that the Timberwolves would have received the #1 pick at least ONCE in their 25 year history is 84.77%.

In addition to that, the likelihood that the Timberwolves would have moved up at least ONCE in their 25 year history is 93.07%.

If I were to try to factor in the probability that the Timberwolves would actually select a quality player in the draft if they ever did move up, my head might explode. However, that is a completely different complaint for another thread.

I am not quite ready to write off 1.8% give our past history of terrible luck. What do you think? Are we jumping the gun on assuming we will get the 13th pick, or is this the year the basketball gods finally looks favorably upon us and give us Wiggins.

1990

10.61% chance to win the Lottery

10.61% chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 5th to 6th

1991

7.58% chance to win the Lottery

7.58% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 7th

1992

16.67% chance to win the Lottery

N/A - chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 1st to 3rd

1993

15.15% chance to win the Lottery

15.15% chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 2nd to 5th

1994

16.41% chance to win the Lottery

32.82% chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 3rd to 4th

1995

18.20% chance to win the Lottery

36.07% chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 3rd to 5th

1996

12.98% chance to win the Lottery

25.89% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 5th

2005

0.50% chance to win the Lottery

1.81% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 14th

2006

5.30% chance to win the Lottery

18.28% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 6th

2007

5.30% chance to win the Lottery

18.30% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 7th

2008

13.80% chance to win the Lottery

28.04% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 3rd

2009

7.60% chance to win the Lottery

25.49% chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 5th to 6th

2010

19.90% chance to win the Lottery

19.90% chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 2nd to 4th

2011

25.0% chance to win the Lottery

N/A - chance to move up

Outcome – Dropped from 1st to 2nd

2012 (pick was traded prior to Lottery – Flynn you Marco Jaric)

1.1% chance to win the Lottery

4.0% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 10th

2013

1.7% chance to win the Lottery

6.1% chance to move up

Outcome – Stayed put at 9th

2014

0% chance to win the Lottery

100% chance our pick goes to Phoenix

Outcome – Love leaves Minnesota

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