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WAR Value of Current and Potential Timberwolves


I had some time today to look through our rosters value per the Wins Above Replacement statistic. I also included players that have been rumored to be of interest via trade or free agency. I'm sure there are some that I missed. Perhaps this will be of some interest and value, I hope. Sorry about the formatting, but the numbers that matter are at the right and far right in Real Plus Minus and Wins Above Replacement. I will bold the 13-14 timberwolves WAR statistics.

Here we go:

13-14 Point Guards:

WAR Rank GP MPG OffensiveRPM DefensiveRPM RPM WAR

4 Ricky Rubio MIN 82 32.2 1.44 2.46 3.90 10.76
9 Patrick Beverley HOU 56 31.3 2.97 1.29 4.26 7.26
16 Patty Mills SA 81 18.9 3.17 0.56 3.73 5.81
18 Eric Bledsoe PHX 43 32.9 0.10 3.96 4.06 5.77

19 Avery Bradley BOS 60 30.9 0.77 1.22 1.99 5.06
21 Jameer Nelson ORL 68 32.0 2.79 -1.90 0.89 4.29
23 Greivis Vasquez SAC/TOR 79 22.5 1.40 -0.26 1.14 3.68

29 Shaun Livingston BKN 76 26.0 -0.09 -0.48 -0.57 2.08
43 Alexey Shved MIN 63 10.5 -0.23 -0.47 -0.70 0.68

70 J.J. Barea MIN 79 18.6 -1.89 -1.33 -3.22 -0.80

Patty Mills and Patrick Beverly seem to be instant offense with Beverly playing considerably more minutes and better D. Livingston would be a vast improvement even, and hopefully can be had at a decent price.

13-14 Shooting Guards:


1 Goran Dragic PHX 76 35.1 4.58 -1.14 3.44 9.75

5 Klay Thompson GS 81 35.4 2.21 -0.17 2.04 7.93

9 Jimmy Butler CHI 67 38.7 0.89 1.23 2.12 6.76

11 Lance Stephenson IND 78 35.3 0.92 0.15 1.07 5.71

12 Gordon Hayward UTAH 77 36.4 2.17 -1.59 0.58 4.99

19 Jodie Meeks LAL 77 33.2 1.53 -1.94 -0.41 3.28
21 Thabo Sefolosha OKC 61 26.0 -1.30 1.96 0.66 3.06

28 Kevin Martin MIN 68 32.0 1.25 -2.00 -0.75 2.28
39 Rodney Stuckey DET 73 26.7 1.73 -3.24 -1.51 1.02
60 Chauncey Billups DET 19 16.3 -0.61 -1.76 -2.37 0.00
82 Arron Afflalo ORL 73 35.0 -0.24 -2.95 -3.19 -1.30

Aaron Afflalo. Eesh. Meeks was overpaid by the Pistons today- 3yrs, $19.5, though both RPM and WAR favor him to KMart... Dragic, Klay and Jimmy Butler all fair well in both RPM and WAR.

13-14 Small Forwards:

6 Mike Dunleavy CHI 82 31.5 1.18 1.92 3.10 8.26

8 Chandler Parsons HOU 74 37.6 1.37 0.58 1.95 7.57
10 Draymond Green GS 82 21.9 -0.48 3.98 3.50 6.54

15 Corey Brewer MIN 81 32.2 2.02 -0.89 1.13 6.01
16 Trevor Ariza WSH 77 35.4 -0.13 1.04 0.91 5.42
24 Wilson Chandler DEN 62 31.1 -0.44 0.06 -0.38 2.47
35 Robbie Hummel MIN 53 12.4 0.13 0.53 0.66 1.23

39 Chase Budinger MIN 41 18.3 0.21 -0.84 -0.63 0.80

61 Alan Anderson BKN 78 22.7 -1.15 -1.22 -2.37 -0.02

Another obvious case for keeping Hummel on an extremely inexpensive deal... Also impressive is Draymond Green coming in at 10. I forgot to include Shabazz who was rated 67 overall SF with a WAR of -0.46.

13-14 Power Forwards:

2 Kevin Love MIN 77 36.3 3.53 1.54 5.07 13.54
6 Channing Frye PHX 82 28.2 3.91 1.17 5.08 10.82

10 Taj Gibson CHI 82 28.7 0.54 3.62 4.16 8.78
11 Thaddeus Young PHI 79 34.4 0.84 0.85 1.69 7.17

18 David Lee GS 69 33.2 -0.12 1.36 1.24 5.27

23 Kenneth Faried DEN 80 27.2 1.34 -1.17 0.17 3.58
25 Markieff Morris PHX 81 26.6 0.54 -0.55 -0.01 3.21
28 Marcus Morris PHX 82 22.0 0.50 -0.78 -0.28 2.35

37 Dante Cunningham MIN 81 20.2 -1.28 0.14 -1.14 1.24
38 Terrence Jones HOU 76 27.3 0.49 -1.91 -1.42 1.22
39 Ekpe Udoh MIL 42 19.1 -2.78 2.83 0.05 1.15
40 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute MIN/SAC 64 15.7 -1.80 1.25 -0.55 1.12
48 Brandon Bass BOS 82 27.6 -1.49 -0.43 -1.92 0.61
52 James Johnson MEM 52 18.4 -2.12 0.54 -1.58 0.44

or the 'what we'll lose' position. The variance is huge. Frye had a good year to be taken with a grain of salt. I forgot to include Boozer, who was rated 2nd to last for PF's in WAR at -2.31.

13-14 Centers:

10 Nikola Pekovic MIN 54 30.8 1.31 2.19 3.50 6.37
46 Ronny Turiaf MIN 31 19.5 -4.08 2.71 -1.37 0.37
72 Gorgui Dieng MIN 60 13.6 -3.73 0.18 -3.55 -0.63

PEEEEKKKKKKK!!! gorgui. Not much need here.

So take from this what you will. Obviously losing Love will sting.

My thoughts:

Trades;

GSW

If a trade with Golden State must happen, we had better be getting Draymond Green along with Klay Thompson plus at least 1 future 1st pick. Both could be inserted into our starting lineup from day one showing a positive gain at small forward of .53 (RPM likes Dray even more) and a positive of 5.65 at the sg position.

The bad; at power forward the drop-off from Kevin Love to David Lee, per WAR, is -8.27.

In other words; if our starting lineup next year were Rubio/Klay/Dray/Lee/PEK, per WAR we'd likely win, at least, 2 less games (if I'm doing this right). Playoffs, here we aren't.

CHI

I'd mentioned before that Dunleavy should be included in any trade w Chicago but a trade of this magnitude becomes less likely with each starting player added. Something like Love/Brewer/Bazz/KMart for Boozer/Gibson/Dunleavy/Butler and Mirotic. That's a steep price, I know, which ultimately lands us 0.12 better, without any Mirotic considerations. and that's why it won't happen. But hey, we should be giving our demands not settling.

HOU

Chandler Parson's pump fakes aside, this doesn't seem nearly as appealing while looking at Terrence Jones' WAR and RPM. With the inclusion of Patrick Beverly, and Clint Capela better yet, things become a lot more interesting. The question would be if Beverly could play alongside Rubio at all?

Assuming a starting lineup of Rubio/Beverly/Parsons/Jones/PEK per WAR we would likely lose (about) 6 more games next year. ugh. and there would be a lot riding on Parson's shot.

PHO

Would Dragic resign? Will he regress? These are the questions that will prohibit this from happening. I won't even mention Bledsoe. But a trade of Dragic, Frye, a Morris bro, and T.J. Warren for Love, Brew and Bazz would be the idea. I believe they have a trade exception, but could be wrong.

A starting lineup of Rubio/Dragic/Bud/Frye/Pek would be frighteningly bad defensively, but fun to watch. I won't crunch the numbers.

Free Agency;

Point guard is the area of need. Mills would be excellent, though out of our price range, right? Any of Vasquez, Jameer or Livingston would be of significant improvement.

Thanks for reading. Thoughts??

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