I put this together to get some kind of snapshot of where the Timberwolves would be if we made each of the proposed trade from a cap standpoint. The question is not where we will be next year, but where will we be when any extension for Rubio has to kick in. I use this year, because in two of the three trades we will have players making significantly more than they did this past year. I think this allows you to ask which trade gives you the best team in two years and the ability to add players to make that new core good enough to a) be in the playoffs and b) win in the playoffs.
Kevin Love $15,719,063 $16,744,219 $0 $0 $0 $0
Nikola Pekovic $12,100,000 $12,100,000 $11,600,000 $0 $0
Kevin Martin $7,085,000 $7,377,500 $0 $0 $0
Ricky Rubio $6,723,729 $0 $0 $0 $0
Chase Budinger $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Corey Brewer $4,905,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 $0
Alexey Shved $3,998,408 $0 $0 $0 $0
Shabazz Muhammad $2,056,920 $3,046,299 $4,237,401 $0 $0
Gorgui Dieng $1,474,440 $2,348,782 $3,384,596 $0 $0
I have ignored Rubio’s qualifying offer because he will probably have a new deal by then. The basis we are starting with then is roughly 32.5 million. This leaves us with a question of what to do with Shved who would have a qualifying offer of 3.9 million. The factors for each trade then are shved/Rubio plus any assets acquired. I also have not included any recently drafted or to be drafted rookies. I have assumed in each that Rubio will be making 13 million. I have also taken out Love’s money because he obviously won’t be here.
Golden State trade
Klay 13 (he has to be resigned)
Barnes 3.9 million
Lee 15.493 million (last year of his deal)
Green 7 million (this is a guess he would be a FA and have to be resigned)
A golden State trade would leave us at around 77 million if Barnes was traded to us and we did not pick up the option on Shved. It would be roughly 81 million if we keep Shved. If we include Shved and Green then we would be at some 88 million dollars. This is not a pretty option. Is this team good enough? I don’t know.
Rubio 13 million
Gibson 8.5 million
Mirotic 7 million
Snell 1.5 million
Butler 10 million
For Chicago I included both Snell and Butler, we would not get both, but I did it to provide options. For Mirotic I used an earlier reported number. It is possible he signs for closer to 5 million. With Butler this would leave us at 70 million. With Snell some 61 million, which would leave us room to sign a FA. We could also decline the option on Snell and free up the 1.5 million. Whether or not this deal is any good depends on what picks are involved and how good Mirotic is.
Rubio 13 million
Jones 1.6 million
Parsons 13 million
This deal would leave us at around 60 million depending on what Rubio and Parsons would be signed for. Obviously Parsons is a RFA and a bit of a wild card. I have not included Lin here because he would be gone at the time Rubio would be resigned. Also Parsons will be signed at a dollar amount high enough to be traded for him and Jones alone.
If Lee’s contract could be moved as an expiring the year after next then the Golden State deal becomes much better. As it stands that is a very expensive team. After looking at this, I don’t know that it makes much difference between Butler and Snell. It depends on whether or not you think Butler is worth a large contract. There is much more flexibility in the second two deals than the first one that much is for sure.
The real risk of the Golden State trade is that, what you get has to be good enough because you lose all future flexibility if you do nothing. It also demonstrates that with a Golden State trade it is almost imperative they take a player back, it doesn’t matter much whether is Martin/Chase/Brewer, but they have to take someone other than JJ back. The reason is that JJ is expiring. He does not have a cap impact two years from now.