Two years ago, prior to the draft, I wrote a rather lengthy fan post detailing the many reasons why Wolves should draft Paul George. Of course, instead Kahn selected Wes Johnson and traded the Babbit pick to Portland for Martell Webster and, now, nearly two years later, Minnesota is still looking for a wing that will provide the team with the very attributes that Paul George has displayed with the Pacers deep into the second round of the playoffs.

Several of you have written nice assessments of the 2012 draft class, as well as made the reasonable point would be better served including the 20th pick in a package that might yield the team a veteran wing player who would be an improvement upon both Martell Webster and Wesley Johnson. It's an understandable point, one that I agree with; however, if the team is unable to find that player in a trade, I wonder if they might be able to find a reasonable facsimile to Paul George in Baylor's Perry Jones.

(HD) Perry Jones - Baylor Bears Highlights (HD) (via Serafim009)

Several of you, notably Stop-N-Pop, have posted sound arguments why the Wolves should avoid drafting Perry Jones. However, I wonder if the statistical arguments against drafting Jones are distorted by the fact that he's played out of position for the past two years. Might those numbers look different if he'd been playing at SF? Chad Ford and a few other draft pundits have floated the idea that Perry Jones most natural position is at SF and that if he's allowed to play that position by the team that selects him, the player that Jones might most closely resemble is Paul George.

So I'm curious if any of you Canis Hoopers share that thought and, in the event Kahn can't make a move to acquire an adequate veteran wing, could you be open to the Wolves moving up 10 to 12 spots to select Jones? Honestly, if they could package Wes and a future #1 with the 20th pick, I'd be on board... provided the team could move Derrick Williams for a shot blocker or a starting SG.

Thoughts?

-Bryce

via i2.cdn.turner.com

Surprised no one has mentioned him on this website. A Wing/SG out of france who seems to be a first round lock. Timberwolves seem to like the foreign players and he fits a need.

Some things I've read about him

Strengths: Has a really solid, strong body that helps him attacking the rim; he is not so explosive, but his first step allows him to beat opponents off the dribble ... Very crafty offensively. He is a natural talent, and can score in many ways: shooting from three, attacking the basket and spotting up ... Very adept at driving and dishing ... Also has a nice left hand, and can grab rebounds, both in offense and defense ... The trademark to his game is his ability to score clutch baskets. He seems to live for crunch time ... Sees the floor exceptionally well for a 19 year old ... He also is a very difficult defensive assignment because he is always in motion, working hard to get open looks ... Defensively, he has nice position and good foot work, plays smart, not overly aggressive ... Tremendous attitude, work ethic. Willing to put the work in to maximize his abilities ...

Weaknesses: Plays below the rim. Below average explosiveness will make finishing at the rim a challenge for him in the NBA ... He doesn’t have any great defects, but absolutely needs to improve his three point shot, still too inconsistent to be a threat at the NBA level ... He can do almost everything on the basketball court, but has areas that must be improved upon: he must pass better, shoot with more confidence, finish better ...

Overall: Became the youngest player in French League history to score more than 20 points ... A player that is very advanced for his age and considered the top International prospect for the 2012 NBA draft ... If he is inserted into a well balanced system, he could have an immediate impact on the game, and could be an important member of a supporting cast ... Fournier will have until June 18th to decide to withdraw or leave his name in this year's NBA draft ...

French swingmanEvan Fourniercame into the 2011 Nike Hoop Summit with some recognition after stringing together some very intriguing performances for Poiters in Pro A France over the past few months.

Poiters (pb86.fr)

He stood out immediately in the practice sessions with his excellent size, mature frame, high skill level and terrific scoring instincts on the wing. He plays at a very nice pace and has a smoothness and craftiness to his game that enables him to get into the paint off the dribble, utilizing his deceptive athleticism and very aggressive mentality.

He uses jab-steps nicely and has strong footwork and ball-handling skills, showing especially nice timing on his drives, where he can use spin moves and finish elegently. He also displayed a very good feel for the game, often throwing nice passes to set up his teammates off his penetration. In France he's at times the one who's asked to bring the ball up the floor for his team, demonstrating his intriguing versatility.

He showed the ability to finish in transition and in the paint against the other World Team members, but he struggled in the game, shooting 2-8 from the floor, and looking somewhat nervous and clearly being bothered by the length of Team USA at the rim.

In the practices and from the game-film we watched it seems like he does an excellent job of using his strong body around the rim to shield opponents and finish through contact, though, so it's possible he may have just been pressing in the actual game.

A big key will be his growth as a jump-shooter, as he's only shooting 19% (7-36) from behind the 3-point line this season for Poiters. From what we observed in practice, this looks to be correctable as he has nice form in his upper body and release, but has some trouble with his lower body and footwork, with his momentum carrying him too far forward.

Defensively, Fournier has good size at 6-7, but average length (6-7 ½ wingspan). He played hard all week in the practices and scrimmages, showing solid toughness, but may lack a degree of lateral quickness to guard some of the more explosive players he'll eventually match up with in the NBA.

Ultimately, his performance on Saturday night was a bit of a disappointment after such solid showings in practice, but Fournier shows great promise and clearly has NBA potential down the line if he improves his perimeter shot and continues to produce at a high rate in Europe.

PLAYER EVALUATION

Projection	Late First Round Pick
Positives	Smooth, scoring wing Excellent penetrator Nice midrange jumper
Negatives	Needs to add strength Needs to improve his three point range May lack the lateral quickness to defend his position
Notes	Fournier has declared for the 2012 NBA Draft. Play for Poiters in France. Averaging 14 ppg on 55 percent shooting in 30 mpg during the 2011-12 season.
Photo	ALAIN JOCARD/AFP/Getty Images

May 18 Update: The New Jersey Nets and Houston Rockets are hosting the first big draft workout of the season this weekend. Unfortunately, the main draw, France's Evan Fournier, won't be there. Fournier hurt himself in France earlier in the week and had to withdraw from the workout. Right now Fournier is the only international player we have projected as a first-round pick. If he can't get healthy enough to work out for teams, his stock could take a hit. It looks like he's targeting the adidas Eurocamp as a spot where he can show off his wares, but with a compressed draft season this year, how many NBA decision-makers are going to make the trip to Treviso?

May 14 Update: Fournier is the only likely first-rounder in the group of NBA draft prospects expected at a camp in New Jersey this weekend. His size at shooting guard and his production in France could make him the only international player taken in the first round.

Apr 1 Update: Fournier will declare for the 2012 NBA Draft. Fournier is a productive, scoring two guard who thrives at getting to the basket. He has good size for his position and is producing as a 19 year old in the French League. He needs to get stronger and he really needs to improve his jump shot, but teams could take a flier on him in the late first round.

Feb 22 Update: Fournier was last seen on this side of the Atlantic in this past spring's Nike Hoop Summit, where I loved what I saw of him in the practices but he finished with an underwhelming performance in the game. Prior to that he had been playing in France's Pro A league, where he was the youngest player to ever score 20 points in a game, surpassing Tony Parker's record.

At 6-7 and 19 years old, Fournier has excellent shooting guard size and good -- but not great -- athleticism, although at this point in his development, he is a below-average outside shooter. And, while not armed with great ballhandling skills, he is an effective slasher to the basket. Currently he's averaging 14 points per game for Poitiers, but is shooting 27 percent from behind the arc.

While Fournier has prototype NBA wing size, there is still a lot of polishing up left for him to do. But his track record is solid and he's young enough that there is plenty of time for him to do so.

We could trade up from the second, or trade down from our first. Or take him at our first. Thoughts?

Basketball is a superb sport, and should be an easy one to market.

It 'works' for spectators in person, or should. One can sit close to the action, see the effort on the players' faces, sense their personalities, read the lines of tension between coach and player. It's absolutely made for television; no other sport is so accessible to the camera, partly because the basket's in a fixed place and one can frame images more easily than in a football or baseball game. (Baseball with its lame close-ups of pitchers on the mound suffers by comparison; one can hardly follow many plays, because the camera can't take in the action's essential points.) Basketball doesn't result in injuries at the rate of a football, so leagues can schedule games reasonably close to each other, and play a number of them, if they want. Lots of options are open that way. Win or go home? Best of 15?

The NBA is basketball's pinnacle. We enjoy other settings, players like Fran Vanquez don't want to come to the Association, but when you're talking about the highest level of the sport, this is it. Ricky Rubio grows up daydreaming about playing here.

The NBA playoffs should be amazing. They should present us with a dramatic line surpassing that of any other sport. Do they? How could we break such a judgment down?

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KEY

PA100.off:

Points added per 100 offensive possessions above the average player at his position. Gives credit for creating better offensive situations (i.e. rim or three for himself or others). Also gives credit for outperforming the situation of his shots by shooting with accuracy above expectation. For example, when Ricky passes to an open Kevin Love three-pointer, Ricky gets credit for the expected value of an assisted three above and beyond the lowest value shot (an unassisted midrange jumper). Love then earns points for making that shot above average, and loses points for making it below average.

PA100.def:

Mostly the PA100.off score of player's positional counterparts. However, credit for blocks and steals is given to the blocker/stealer. For example, when Nikola Pekovic blocks Steve Nash, Pekovic gets credit for a missed rim shot, while Rubio is debited for an allowed rim shot.

PA100.dif:

PA100.off - PA100.def

HLP and component numbers:

These numbers show the difference in how non-counterpart opposing players perform when ego is in the game. Do opposing shooting guards perform worse with Ricky is in the game, or on the bench? What about opposing centers? This measure gives players a quarter share of responsibility for the performance of each non-counterpart opposing player. The HLP measure simply combines the player's impact on the four other positions over an average 100 possession period.

The biggest concern to keep in mind when interpreting these numbers is the cohort effect. Some players are almost always on the court together, and this makes the HLP measure for that position largely useless.

.. but still really important to the Timberwolves.

Ricky Rubio's rookie season seemed to get everyone at the Target Center and on Canis Hoopus pretty damn excited. Ricky is an fun player, and when he was on the court, things just seemed to be working for the first time since the Garnett years. Throughout the season I have repeatedly seen Ricky identified as "the centerpiece of the Wolves' future", "untradeable", "max contract player", "better than Kevin Love", "better the Nikola Pekovic"... Many Minnesota fans don't just see Ricky as the starting point guard we have needed since Cassell. They see him as the golden-boy savior of the franchise.

I was there watching the games this season, so I know where this sentiment comes from. I had the same experience watching the Wolves finally compete on a regular basis, only to watch the season crumble after Rubio tore his ACL making a hustle play that may have beaten the Lakers. However... I think if we let the hype-train get going too fast, many folks are going to experience a serious let-down, and I also worry the back-swing will make it difficult to appreciate Ricky for the good value he legitimately does bring to the Wolves. This is why I view it as a public service to unmask your hero and disabuse you of your hope.

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KEY

PA100.off:

Points added per 100 offensive possessions above the average player at his position. Gives credit for creating better offensive situations (i.e. rim or three for himself or others). Also gives credit for outperforming the situation of his shots by shooting with accuracy above expectation. For example, when Ricky passes to an open Kevin Love three-pointer, Ricky gets credit for the expected value of an assisted three above and beyond the lowest value shot (an unassisted midrange jumper). Love then earns points for making that shot above average, and loses points for making it below average.

PA100.def:

Mostly the PA100.off score of player's positional counterparts. However, credit for blocks and steals is given to the blocker/stealer. For example, when Nikola Pekovic blocks Steve Nash, Pekovic gets credit for a missed rim shot, while Rubio is debited for an allowed rim shot.

PA100.dif:

PA100.off - PA100.def

HLP and component numbers:

These numbers show the difference in how non-counterpart opposing players perform when ego is in the game. Do opposing shooting guards perform worse with Ricky is in the game, or on the bench? What about opposing centers? This measure gives players a quarter share of responsibility for the performance of each non-counterpart opposing player. The HLP measure simply combines the player's impact on the four other positions over an average 100 possession period.

The biggest concern to keep in mind when interpreting these numbers is the cohort effect. Some players are almost always on the court together, and this makes the HLP measure for that position largely useless.

SOUTHEASTERN:

I finally have the PA100 metric to a place where I am pretty happy with it. It isn't perfect. I think I need to account for diminishing returns in a few areas, namely shot creation and offensive rebounding, but I trust the results. Individual scores explain about 97-98% of team efficiency differential. This is higher than I thought I would get given that I am not including any "team" statistics, even unassigned rebounds and turnovers (like shot clock violations.) Furthermore, season to season PA100 scores are correlated at just around 80% for players logging at least 2000 possessions (.8 for differential and offensive and .75 for defensive.) Honestly, I don't know what I should be shooting for here, but not even controlling for age, I can't imagine reality is much better than an 80-90% correlation.

In addition to the basic PA100 numbers I am also including another new gizmo I have been working on. The "Help" defensive statistics are not factored into PA100 scores, but offer a handy diagnostic tool for identifying players whose defensive scores owe something to cross-matching or who cover the whole floor rather than focusing on locking their man down.

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I started working at youth center that was remodeled by the wolves around 5 years ago, and I noticed a poem by Rashad McCants on the wall I thought I would share.

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When I think Atlanta, I think absurd contracts. No, not Darko, not Wes Johnson but volume shooters getting paid big money. That said, their volume shooters have taken them to the playoffs for the past 5 years though never to an ECF. Not all is rosy in Atlanta however, the elephant in the room is that they have $60mil locked up for 2012-13 in just 8 players, the most egregious contract being the $19mil owed to Joe Johnson. The Trio of Johnson, Smith and Horford alone will make $45.9million next year. Per wikipedia they are already over next years cap of $58mil (same as this year) so everything will be looked at with respect to salary.

For reference, I've not watched much of the Hawks outside of the playoffs so this will be my initial impression followed by stats and salary implications.

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He was courted by David Kahn during free agency, and although his numbers have certainly been decent since re-signing with Memphis, he's not producing in line with what he's paid. But if the Wolves can peddle depth (and salary) for Gay (and his salary), it might be a trade that helps both teams.

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