Canis Hoopus - All Posts

NBA and Timberwolves News and Notes: Draft Rumors

2013-05-24T17:08:26Z

While the Cavaliers seem likely to choose Nerlens Noel with the first pick overall, there are persistent rumors that they are really looking to use the pick and other assets (along with their upcoming cap space) in a trade a la last summer's James Harden blockbuster. They want another star to pair with Kyrie Irving.

This was discussed in part two of yesterday's B.S. Report with Bill Simmons, by Brian Windhorst, an ESPN writer who formerly worked in Cleveland. He also cogently discusses the ramifications of the new luxury tax system. I know Simmons isn't everyone's favorite, but Windhorst is interesting here, and it's worth a listen.

For those of you who can't get enough mock drafts, here are links to a few--feel free to add more in comments:

Draft Express
SB Nation
Sports Illustrated
NBA.com

Several mocks have the Wolves taking Canis Hoopus favorite (whipping boy) Shabazz Muhammad. Darren Wolfson, in his latest Scoops column has sources that say the Wolves like him. Of course our own Just a Fan assured us the other day that they don't like him and he isn't on their list. Ah, pre-draft prevarications. But for fun, here's his DX scouting video, just so you can wallow:

All of this year's scouting videos are here.

Wolfson also suggests that the Wolves will try to move up (probably to Charlotte's 4th spot) for Victor Oladipo.

Flip Saunders reports on his twitter that Trevor Mbakwe was very impressive at the Nets pre-draft camp,with his rebounding prowess and that Rodney Williams measured very well. This was echoed by Jonathan Givony of Draft Express.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday the Wolves will play host to NBA decision-makers as they hold their annual pre-draft workout. Don't know yet who will participate, but it's usually mostly second rounders and potential UDFAs. If you see any NBA GMs around town, be ready with your trade machine ideas. They love that.

In the meantime, vjl110 has updated his expected peak wins chart by including information from the combine in his model. He says: " I am not necessarily ready to sign off on these results..." so buyer beware. Still, it makes Cody Zeller look incredible and separates C.J. McCollum from KCP and others.

In free agent "news," Wolfson said on his twitter last night that the team is assuming that AK will exercise his player option. Though that's a little confusing to parse, I interpret it to mean that they expect him to opt in.

He also tweets that Kahn inquired about Alec Burks of the Utah Jazz in February, but that the Jazz had no interest in trading him.

The Minnesota Lynx finalized their roster yesterday a week ahead of their June 1st season opener by cutting Pepper Wilson. I'm a little concerned about their depth in bigs, especially since Janel McCarville is coming off a pretty long lay-off. Third year player Amber Harris and second year player Devereaux Peters are going to have to step up.

Hey, there's a ballgame tonight! Those nights with no games remind me that we are heading for a months long dry spell with no NBA basketball. Anyway:

Pacers at Heat: 7:30 Central on TNT

Can these two teams produce another game as riveting as game one? That game was marred by a lot of turnovers, but was incredibly competitive and featured several fantastic moments, including the Paul George game tying three in regulation, Chris Bosh's fantastic put back and-1 in overtime that tied it up, and of course the James game winner with Roy Hibbert sitting on the bench.

How resilient are the Pacers? They had their shot in game one and now have to win four of six from the best team in the league. Huge game tonight. Enjoy it.

Canines, Magicians, and the tragic comedy of the NBA Lottery

2013-05-24T04:17:46Z

Guess what?

This isn't another rant about the NBA lottery being rigged.

No, in fact, I believe the lottery works exactly as its intended to. Just one problem: the way its intended to work hurts more than it helps. And never, in the 16 years the Timberwolves have not moved up in the lottery, was this more apparent than this past week.

Two years ago, when it was becoming apparent that 'the blueprint' wasn't going to build the grand Timbertower we were promised, we of the Canis Hoopus variety swore off cheering for moral victories. No more. None. The team either won or it got Korean food.

And that's something we carried through quite literally with every %%% comment about draft picks and athletes and blueprints and smiles and open letters and too much weed and assigning the coaches homework and loss after loss after loss. Win now. The end.

But here's the thing.

At the end of just this last February, the Wolves were sitting on a record of 20-35. Chase Budinger was set to come back anytime, and there was still the possibility that Love get in a few games as well. And we said GREAT. Get 'em on the court and let's win some games!

But let's take a moment to think about what we were really cheering for. Actually...what were we cheering for? The Pups had a nearly 2-1 loss-win count, and with no moves made at the trade deadline, were clearly not going to make the playoffs (at the time, we calculated that the Wolves would need to play better ball than the Heat to make the 8th seed at that point (BTW, the Heat have lost only 3 games since the end of February)) With no chance at the postseason and the roster too decimated by injury to claim the whole "gaining some on-court chemistry" thing, winning would accomplish nothing. But we wanted them to win, and they wanted to win, and so they started winning; from March 1st to the end of the season, the Wolves posted a not-all-that-terrible record of 11-16, to finish the year at 31-51, good for the #9 draft pick. So...hooray....?..??.......?

Ok, but let's rewind one more time: 20-35. A really terrible record after 3 previous years of really terrible records.

But here's the thing: had we stayed on that path, we would have finished with a record of 29-53. Just a difference of two wins, right? Wrong. 29-53 is the record the Wizards finished with. Which put their lottery chances at 3.5% as opposed to our own 1.7%, which ultimately got them the 3rd pick...not the 9th.

It would seem that we all like Victor Oladipo in this draft. And if we assume the first two picks will be some 2-person combination of Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, and Trey Burke, then it turns out the difference between 29-35 and 31-51 is the difference between Victor Oladipo and.....not Victor Oladipo.

Winning would get us nothing. We cheered for our team to accomplish nothing and they got nothing.

Were we wrong? Of course not. How would we be wrong for wanting our team to win after 3 1/2 years of losing? But at the same time, the winning clearly hurt us in this case, and hurts most teams in almost all lottery cases. Teams exist to win. But when a season is clearly lost early on, and winning doesn't get the team anything practical, then the only way to make something useful out of the situation is to engage in that blasphemous, 4-letter word practice.

Tank.

And therein lies the core of the problem of using the current lottery system. For a team to win later, it has to actively lose now. And that's not the team's fault and it's not our fault and it's not even the lottery's fault. The lottery does what it's supposed to do. It's the system's fault. As Royce White said early this year in his battle for a mental health policy, "The problem is the art of the business."

Good teams are built by drafting the best players. The best players get drafted with high picks. The system is set up to award high picks to those with bad record; the worse the record, the better the pick is likely to be.

And no, having the worst record doesn't mean you'll get the best pick. That's what I mean when I say the lottery does what it's intended to. Charlotte won 7 games last year, but lost the Anthony Davis sweepstakes to the Hornets, who won 21 games. They were 1 game away from the worst record this year, but are picking 4th.

There's also Cleveland, who hasn't had the worst record in a decade, but has won the lottery 3 times in that span, including a year they kicked us out to grab Kyrie Irving (scary thought: LeBron goes back and forms a 4-headed monster of Bron/Irving/Waiters/Noel)

And then, we have the perfect example of all this nonsense: the Orlando Magic, who gave up on the season 2 months before it began when they traded the clear-cut best center in the NBA for Mo Harkless and Aaron Afflolo, turning down (among others) Andrew Bynum, Andre Iguodala, Brook Lopez, and the Saturn-sized pile of assets the Rockets put together. They tanked. And now they're going to be picking from that Noel/McLemore/Porter/Oladipo/Burke group.

If the NBA wants to know why it can't overtake the NFL, then maybe this is a good place to start looking. The league runs a system that all but forces teams to rely on the draft to become good. Then they want those teams to win, while running a draft that encourages teams to lose. Fans don't like teams that lose. They stop paying attention. They tune out. They stop caring.

I don't know what the best solution to the problem is, but as my design professors liked to remind me, you don't have to know how to make it to know that it's no good. Change the percentages. Weight the system. Something. Just don't put us in a position of having to want our teams to lose.

Around the NBA: Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, and Sacramento Kings

2013-05-23T15:11:30Z

Last year, as some of you might recall, I tried to organize a project in which we wrote an off-season fan post about each team in the league, considering their strengths, weaknesses, and needs. However, most of you lazy #$%@!s didn't finish your assignments. I still think it's a worthwhile endeavor, but I'm going to streamline it a little bit by doing teams in groups, starting with the Timberwolves' peers--the Western Conference non-playoff teams.

Phoenix Suns (25-57) 15th in the Western Conference

Salary: $42M committed to 9 players for 2013-14 (NOTE: salary amounts are rough estimates, and will often depend on various team and player options; I will make my best guesses without getting too far into the salary cap weeds).

What they did well: Not a lot. Their poor defense was better than their catastrophically bad offense, but that isn't saying much. Goran Dragic emerged as a legitimate starting point guard. They luckily avoided signing Eric Gordon, who they pursued last summer as a restricted free agent.

What they did poorly: other than signing Michael Beasley? A lot. They shot the ball poorly when they weren't turning it over, they were a bad defensive rebounding club, they gave up more free throws then they took, and they allowed their opponents an efg% of over 51%.

A year after saying goodbye to franchise legend Steve Nash, this is clearly a transition point for the Suns. They have hired a new general manager, Ryan McDonough, who comes from the Boston Celtics, and are currently looking for a coach after Lindsey Hunter took them through the second half of the season as the interim.

The Suns do have some things going for them: no egregious contracts (except for Michael Beasley), several players that might interest other teams in trade (notably Marcin Gortat entering the final year of his deal that will pay him $7.7M) and Jared Dudley (two seasons left at a bargain price of $4,25M per). They also hold several draft picks, including the 5th and 30th picks in this year's first round.

It's hard to say what direction the Suns are heading. What they need is talent pretty much all over the floor. Given that, they are pretty flexible in how they use their lottery pick; the only top prospect they would probably shy away from is Trey Burke, with Dragic in the fold and having used last year's pick on the thus far disappointing Kendall Marshall. Jared Dudley is their only really playable wing, they have a host of underperforming power forwards, and a center position that will need to be addressed.

I don't know what their short term plan is, but this is one team that might benefit from keeping whatever powder they have dry for another year, try to move who they can for younger pieces, collect what talent they can through the draft, play their young guys, and see where they are next summer. Despite my general belief that you should always try to win as much as you reasonably can, it's hard to see how free agent expenditures this summer are going to appreciably help this team in the short or medium term.

New Orleans Pelicans (27-55) 14th in the Western Conference

Salary: Anywhere from $33M for 5 players to $43M for 11 players. The Pelicans have several non-guaranteed contracts on the books for next season, giving them added flexibility.

What they did well: Drafted Anthony Davis. Changed their name to the Pelicans. Rebounded the ball at both ends. That isn't a bad place to start, and there are potentially good things happening in New Orleans. They had an effective front court rotation of Davis, Ryan Anderson (terrific signing), and Robin Lopez (another good signing).

What they did poorly: Drafted Austin Rivers. Matched Eric Gordon's offer sheet. Defend. Their slow pace masked their terrible defense as they gave up easy shot after easy shot to their opponents.

Two years after being forced into trading their franchise player Chris Paul, the Pelicans look like a team poised to take a significant step forward. Interestingly, none of what they got from that trade is helping them do so. Eric Gordon was the centerpiece of that trade, and, presumably worried about losing the featured asset they received after having him in uniform for all of nine games, they matched the Suns offer sheet for him last summer. Now they are on the hook for three more years and $45M for a guy who doesn't stay healthy and isn't that good when he does play. They also received the Wolves 2012 first rounder, which they used on one of the worst lottery picks in recent memory, Austin "Baby Doc" Rivers. Finally, they also got Al-Farouq Aminu, who rebounds well but that's about it. They didn't pick up his option for 2013-14, so he will be a UFA this summer.

On the other hand, Anthony Davis looks like a 20 year old franchise centerpiece, Ryan Anderson is a terrific stretch four, and Robin Lopez is a relatively inexpensive defensive minded starting center. They still have holes, obviously, mostly on the perimeter. As a starting point guard, Greivis Vasquez makes a great back-up. He's in the J.J. Barea mold: high usage, high assist, high turnover, mediocre defense. He'd look great coming off the bench as your change of pace guard. The wing spots are completely up in the air, as Rivers was a disaster as a rookie, they don't really have a small forward, and Eric Gordon can't be counted on. They will probably try to move him, but it's hard to see a team taking on that deal for a guy who has barely played 100 games over the past three seasons.

They hold the 6th pick in this year's draft, and need perimeter help and defense. Either Otto Porter or Victor Oladipo would look good in a Pelican uniform, but both will probably be gone before they pick. They could try to upgrade the center position, or hope they can find their point guard of the future with Trey Burke. They don't really have much to trade, but they should have some wiggle room under the cap to try to patch some holes, and with Anthony Davis entering his second year, the Pelicans should start moving up in the West.

Sacramento Kings (28-54) 13th in the Western Conference

Salary: $41M committed to 9 players.

What they did well: SAVED THEIR TEAM! GOT RID OF THE MALOOFS! Really, this season was about the future of the franchise in Sacramento, and the city staved off a bid from Seattle to relocate the franchise. Of course they did so by committing public funds to an arena project, something that always sticks in my craw, but it's the nature of the beast.

What they did poorly: guard anyone. Get a defensive rebound. Play like a cohesive team. It wasn't a good year on the court for the Kings, who couldn't stop anyone from scoring on them, were forced into unfortunate decisions like starting Isaiah Thomas at the point 62 times this year, and jettisoned their 2012 lottery pick after half a season. From the outside, they look like the biggest mess in the league (well, maybe Charlotte), with their supposed centerpiece DeMarcus Cousins still struggling to figure it out three years in, and a general lack of professionalism across the roster.

Their first order of business is figuring out who is going to run the basketball operations under the new ownership. There is a desperate need for professionalism starting at the top, something that got lost under the last years of the Maloof reign. As for the roster, they have a decision to make about Tyreke Evans, who will be a restricted free agent if they tender him a qualifying offer. They owe the underwhelming wing tandem of Marcus Thornton and John Salmons a combined $15.5M next season and the underwhelming power forward/Center tandem of Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes $11M.

They need to turn over a new leaf under new management. They hold the 7th pick in this year's draft, and need an infusion of talent and good attitude. A two-way SF would be ideal, but that guy won't be available when they pick. If Trey Burke is still on the board, that might be their best bet in terms of acquiring talent. They will need to decide quickly whether they are going to commit long-term to Evans, a decision I'm glad I don't have to make. This is the start of a new phase in Kings history. It's gonna take a while to emerge from the rubble, but at least now it's about basketball.

So what do you think of these teams? What will they do? What should they do? How fast can they get better? What say you?

Eastern Conference Finals Game One: Pacers at Heat

2013-05-23T00:00:04Z

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat: 7:30pm CST on TNT

The Eastern Conference Finals is a repeat of last season's conference semifinal that saw Indiana take a 2-1 lead before Miami found its footing, went small, and won three in a row on their way to the title. Although Miami is clearly the better team, averaging one loss a month over the last four months and 8-1 in the playoffs, Indiana will make them work for it. The Pacers won two of their three meetings this season, though their last victory over the Miami was the Heat's final loss before embarking on their 27 game winning streak.

One of the keys to the series will be Indiana's ability to avoid turnovers. This is a bad matchup for them, as the Heat were 5th in the league in opponents turnover percentage, and the Pacers were very turnover prone during the season (27th in the league). If the Heat are able to force turnovers, especially live ball TOs, and run, the Pacers have no chance.

The Pacers will not go small to match-up with the Heat. They will try to force the issue with their bigs and punish Miami in the paint with Hibbert and West. They will have to get at least somewhat hot from range, however, in order to score enough points to give them an opportunity to win. Paul George and George Hill in particular will need to find their shooting strokes for this series.

Of course, the Pacers calling card is their defense. They have players with the strength and athleticism to at least theoretically make it difficult for the Heat, with Paul George and Lance Stephenson on the perimeter and one of the best rim protectors in the league waiting in the paint. Miami, however, is ruthlessly efficient offensively, and how they attack the Pacer defense is one of the interesting questions of this series.

A final note; officiating will play a major role. The Pacers absolutely cannot afford foul trouble, as their bench is a significant weakness, and they will need to ride their starting lineup hard in order to stay in games.

Give your mock drafting and parsing of every Flip Saunders syllable a rest and enjoy some actual NBA playoff action. Chat about it here.

Saunders: Wolves will 'exhaust every opportunity' come draft time

2013-05-22T18:39:03Z

From TWolves.com

“We’re going to exhaust every opportunity to make this team better, whether it’s through trades, getting lucky (and having a good player fall to them at 9),” Saunders said. “I don’t think anybody expected when Portland was picking at 6 last year that they’d have the unanimous rookie of the year.”

“I’m not saying it wouldn’t be nice to be in the top three. I’d love to be in the top three,” Saunders said. “It’s not where I’m looking to say where our franchise is happy we didn’t’ get in the top there. But with the players that we have, adding through free agency or trades and guys getting healthier, that’s how we’re going to make our jump next year.”

Saunders said unlike the widely popularized moves in the NFL Draft, it’s highly unlikely in the NBA to package those two first rounders to move up to a top three spot. Instead, the question Saunders will ponder is if there is a situation where the No. 9 pick and a player on the current roster could help them move upward. He said teams are not in deal-making mode—teams are instead in Draft mode and will see if there is a player they fall in love with. He said the Wolves, too, have some players they’re taking a hard look at.

The Wolves have two clear needs: shooting on the wings and defense in the paint. Both of those can be potentially addressed in this draft.

I fully believe that Saunders will go to hell and back to get into the top 5 in this draft (whether he pulls it off is a different matter). Again, he's a big, big fan of Victor Oladipo. If he can find a way to draft the kid without selling the whole farm, I think he goes for it.

Adelman, I think, would prefer to simply deal the pick away for a veteran, like he did last year in acquiring Chase Budinger, which could end up being the first real test of the Adelman/Saunders power dynamic.

2013 Draft Preview: The Big Board

2013-05-22T13:03:06Z

2013 NBA Draft Overview:

Here is the official "big board" ranked by performance on the "expected peak wins" model (I need to think of a better name for that... EPW?) This isn't necessarily the order I would advocate selecting players, but I wouldn't deviate without good reason.

So how does the 2013 class stack up to past seasons? To help get a sense, here are links to each of the past 10 draft classes:

2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003

Winning the lottery is a big deal. The average difference in expected value between the #1 and #2 picks is 3.6 wins, while the difference between the #2 and #3 is only 0.7 wins, the difference between the #3 and #4 picks is only 0.5 wins, and beyond that the decrease in value becomes immeasurable at a pick-by-pick resolution. In some years this difference can be very extreme. In the 2012 big board for example, the difference between first and second picks was larger than the difference between the second and sixteenth picks. This may help explain why the #1 pick often plays a significant role in the perception of a draft class' strength.

This class has a clear #1 pick, but he does not stand out as much as they typically do. The 2013 class' top value (Noel) is effectively tied for the second lowest in the past decade with the top prospect from 2005 (Bogut) and 2010 (Cousins). The only first in class who Noel clearly beats is Deng (2004). Given that the #1 pick in 2004 was actually high-schooler Dwight Howard, it is safe to say that this year's class is as weak at the top as any in the past decade. Noel certainly has "star" potential, but he is several tiers below talents like Davis, Durant, or Shaq.

Moving beyond the #1 pick, this draft does have decent depth. Four players offer a 10% or greater chance of becoming a star (Noel, Porter, Oladipo, and Burke) a distinction not held since the 2009 class, and it offers 15 players with more than 5 expected wins, something only three other classes offered. Another important feature of this draft is that it is heavy on shooting guards, a weak spot in the current NBA, and centers, a position that will always be in demand. This certainly isn't one of the great drafts, but it should offer a nice influx of talent.

Best Values:

These are the players who will be available long after my model thinks they should have been selected.

Mike Muscala - Draft Express current has Muscala lasting until pick #34. Even with his top-10 in my model, I would be hesitant to take him that early. There is a lot of risk with big men who dominate in small conferences. However, he is a great gamble in the late 1st.

Nate Wolters - White guard playing at a small school who "isn't athletic enough for the NBA." Maybe it's true, but how many athletically limited point guards can be top ten in free-throw attempts, get to the rim at a high rate, and hang 34 points on Tony Wroten?

BTW... here is how Wolters compares to another small-school point who recently had an impressive rookie season:

2PA

2P%

3PA

3P%

FTA

FT%

ORB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PTS

Lillard

50%

7.4

39%

87%

0.5

5.2

4.2

1.5

0.2

2.9

2.6

22.7

Wolters

11.8

49%

4.4

35%

7.6

80%

1.1

5.6

6.2

1.8

0.2

2.6

2.2

22.2

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - KCP was a better value as recently as a few weeks ago, but unless his rise up the boards continues he will be a really nice pick mid-late lottery. As a chucker who struggled to get to the rim in college he is a bit of a gamble, but he can shoot, jump, and play defense which is a rare and desirable combination.

Andre Roberson - Roberson will collect rebounds and play great defense in the NBA. He is a bit of a 3/4 tweener with minimal offensive skills, but he is still a steal in the second round.

Worst Values:

These are the players who the media and NBA decision makers seem to love, but are very difficult to make a case for based on the numbers.

Shabazz Muhammad - Adam Morrison redux

Alex Len - Has done nothing in college to warrant lottery-pick consideration, but he will be selected early thanks to his large frame. I am tolerant of reaching on "project bigs", but Len's numbers are simply too bad to justify the hype.

Mason Plumlee - Old and unproductive. The only thing Plumlee is particularly good at is draft combines.

Euros:

Unfortunately my models are only generate expectations for NCAA players. This ignores the prospects attempting to join the NBA from overseas. I don't have any special knowledge about these prospects, but that won't stop me from peeking at a box-scores and forming an opinion.

Rudy Gobert

Freakish length, but we still don't know for sure if he can play. His shot-blocking ability is impressive, but he is a surprisingly weak rebounder given his extreme length advantage. His scoring efficiency is off the charts (I don't think I have ever seen someone with a TS over 75%), but his usage is so low it is difficult to read much into.

While Rudy's website touts him as a combination of Javale McGee and Dikembe Mutombo, Alexis Ajinca is probably a better place to start looking for comparisons:

Rudy Gobert, 9'7" reach, 235 lbs, at age 20; Alexis Ajinca, 9'4" reach, 225 lbs at age 20

Pts

2PtA

2P%

FTA

FT%

Off

Def

Asts

Stls

Blks

TOs

PFs

Gobert

14.0

7.8

74.5%

3.8

64.0%

3.7

6.4

0.6

1.2

3.4

2.6

4.3

Ajinca

16.7

10.9

51.7%

6.0

78.5%

4.6

6.7

1.8

1.1

3.4

3.5

7.8

Same age, same league, similar size, and a largely similar statistical profile. Ajinca looks more polished with some good passing and free throw shooting, but Gobert stands out with his weirdly high efficiency inside. Scouts need to determine whether that efficiency is simply a function of Rudy's role in the offense, or the result of some unique talent that he can bring with him to the NBA. If the latter, he warrants consideration very early in the draft.

Dennis Schroeder

Apparently he is really quick and has long arms.

Sergey Karasev:

Karasev is a sniper who moves the ball well for a small forward. Unfortunately, his terrible defensive numbers tell the story of an athletically challenged player who may be so overmatched defending NBA wings it doesn't matter how well he shoots.

Dario Saric

I don't know why all Croatian basketball players are scrawny 6'10" point-forwards with streaky shooting, but apparently that is just how they do things. The important question is whether Saric is the Toni Kukoc varietal or more of a Nemanja Bjelica. He is still 19 years old and doesn't offer much data to go on, but my money is on B-Jelly.

Dario Saric, 6'10", 223 at age 19; Nemanja Bjelica, 6'10", 210, at age 21

Pts

2PtA

2P%

3PtA

3P%

FTA

FT%

Off

Def

Asts

Stls

Blks

TOs

PFs

Saric

12.8

9.3

38.7%

3.6

30.6%

4.4

50.0%

3.7

6.4

3.5

1.7

1.2

3.7

5.2

Bjelica

11.7

5.5

43.8%

3.8

34.2%

4.2

73.0%

1.6

4.3

3.2

1.2

0.7

4.5

7.0

Saric is a terrible shooter, hitting under 40% from two, under 31% from three, and 50% from the free-throw line this past season. He didn't look much better in past seasons either. Saric moves the ball around nicely, collects rebounds, and shows some competent ball-hawking, but I don't really see a place in the NBA for a bean-pole who shoots like Ben Wallace.

Lucas Nogueira

Lucas Noguiera, 9'3" reach 215 lbs at age 20; Rudy Gobert, 9'7" reach, 235 lbs, at age 20

Pts

2PtA

2P%

FTA

FT%

Off

Def

Asts

Stls

Blks

TOs

PFs

Nogueira

16.1

9.9

67.7%

4.3

66.7%

4.9

5.1

0.8

1.4

3.3

1.6

5.5

Gobert

14.0

7.8

74.5%

3.8

64.0%

3.7

6.4

0.6

1.2

3.4

2.6

4.3

Very similar production to the more highly regarded Gobert (in a more difficult league), but he doesn't have the extreme length that is largely responsible for Gobert's hype.

Giannis Adetokunbo:

No statistics to go on, but I love the idea of Adetokunbo. I have a longstanding but completely untested theory that large hands are a strong predictor of future success. Just as jumping higher or having longer arms open up possible developmental trajectories that aren't available to other players, the ease with which players can palm a basketball to pass or handle and the length of fingers putting rotation on their shots potentially has a similar impact. In addition to enormous hands, Adetokunbo has a 7'4" wingspan and great coordination. The other thing I like about Adektokunbo is that he is billed as a versatile pass-first player (though apparently he has a decent shot) who may be able to defend point guards through power forwards. The combination of physical profile and skillset make Adektokunbo the prototype small forward... unfortunately I have no way to evaluate his likelihood of realizing that.

Wolves Remain in 9th Draft Position Following Lottery; Cavaliers Pick First

2013-05-22T01:11:37Z

Continuing their unbroken record of not moving up in the draft lottery, the Timberwolves stay in the 9th draft position.

The Cleveland Cavaliers will pick first, followed by the Orlando Magic (who had the best chance to land the first pick), and the Washington Wizards, who moved up from the 8th position to third.

Looks like the Wolves will be choosing among players such as C.J. McCollum, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cody Zeller and the like, instead of Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore, or Otto Porter.

On to the workouts.

2013 NBA Draft Lottery: Wolves Stay in 9th Slot

2013-05-22T01:06:43Z

The biggest non-event on the NBA calendar takes place tonight at 7:30 central time. Don't miss it!

What: NBA Draft Lottery
When: 7:30 Central on ESPN
Where: ABC Times Square Studios, which raises the question: if you can do something in Secaucus, why would you move?

The Wolves have a 1.7% of being stuck with the first pick that nobody really wants, and a roughly 6% chance of moving into the top three (and probably being forced to pay even more for someone unlikely to help them anytime soon). By far the most likely result has the Wolves with the ninth selection in the draft. Actually, the third pick has some appeal; go Kevin Love! Finish third!

Yes, as we all now know, Flip Saunders has recruited Kevin Love to represent the Wolves at the lottery, after which the two men will no doubt hit the town. This is being hailed in some quarters as evidence of a thaw in the relationship between the organization and the team's best player; I'll withhold judgment until I see the roster Flip puts together this summer.

Lottery Night has featured so prominently in Timberwolves history, let's take this opportunity to stroll down memory lane and remember some of the outstanding moments in franchise lore, shall we?

The first inkling we had about how much the lottery was going to mean to us was in:

1992. The Wolves finished with the worst record in the league (15-67)! They lucked into the 3rd pick in the draft, missing out on such dubious players as Shaquille O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning, but coming away with the universally loved Christian Laettner from Duke.

Let's take a look at some of his finest moments as a Wolf:

1993 was also a big lottery year for our Wolves. They had the 2nd worst record in the league, but didn't get one of those pesky top three picks that would have allowed them to draft Chris Webber or Penny Hardaway; no, they wound up with the fifth pick and superstar J.R. Rider. J.R. might have struggled to actually, you know, help win games, but he did win a dunk contest!

Ah, then there was 1994. Slightly more subtle. The Wolves tied for the 2nd worst record in the league with the Bucks and Pistons. They graciously allowed those two teams and the basement dwelling Mavericks to pick ahead of them. With Grant Hill and Jason Kidd off the board, the Wolves chose Donyell Marshall, who they kept around for all of half a season.

In 1995, they again tied for the 2nd worst record in the league, but wound up drafting 5th. They settled for a skinny high-schooler named Kevin Garnett, who they did keep around a while, but they were so desperate for the first pick in that draft that they brought in Joe Smith years later, and managed to avoid three years of first round draft picks as a result of their astute dealings with the former Maryland star.

More recent examples you say? OK, let's go to the Rambis years.

2010. 2nd worst record in the league, 4th in the lottery. Wes Johnson goes on to smile his way into our hearts.

2011: Worst record in the league. Wolves cede the first pick to a Cavaliers team that had lost LeBron James to free agency the year before; after all, fair is fair. Instead of Kyrie Irving, the Wolves draft by far the best player without a position, Derrick Williams.

The 2011 lottery also brought us one of the finest, most memorable moments of David Kahn's tenure as Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations:

Our league has a habit indeed.

So tonight's the night. What do you want to happen? Do you want the first pick in this draft? Will more Timberwolves history be made somewhere other than on a basketball court? Tune in to find out!

Let's finish up with a couple of appropriate musical numbers:

Minnesota's own Martin Zellar performing the Gear Daddies "Statue of Jesus"
(Daddy always said everything I touched did turn to shit...)

Social Distortion with the simply titled "Bad Luck"

Discuss the lottery here, and link any appropriate draft lottery songs.