Canis Hoopus: FanPosts

Prowling the NBA - March Madness: Breaking Bracketology

2010-03-21T07:19:03Z

As the owner and editor of Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, Joe Lanardi coined the term "bracketology" as a quantifiable system by which the entire NCAA tournament bracket can be more or less predicted.

It's a simple-on-paper, complex-in-practice process involving just about every aspect of a team imaginable. Conference play, non-conference play, overall record, strength of schedule, roster and matchups, coaching, system, venue....etc etc etc. Endless hours go into each decision.

Then a team like Northern Iowa comes along and throws it all out the window.

In case you haven't heard yet, UNI unceremoniously dumped #1 seed Kansas to the curb this afternoon, 69-67 (a score which, BTW, doesn't reflect how poorly Kansas actually played).

So Kansas joins a host of other teams in the woulda-coulda-shoulda category. Bracketology and Cinderella make for an odd couple. There's also plenty of NBA news, with a few stories as startling as the tournament's #1 overall seed bowing out. But let's start with them anyway....

Kansas looked terrible today:

So much for my prediction that KU's experience would carry them through. The Jayhawks looked anything but a team that knew what it was doing. Sherron Collins forgot he was a point guard. Xavier Henry forgot how to shoot free throws. Cole Aldrich was positively Big Al-ish today....put up some great box score numbers, but Kansas definitely played better without him. He had a tendency to hold the ball....and hold it and hold it and hold it....as he tried to figure out what to do with Jordan Eglseder's 7'0", 280 lbs frame. This isn't going to help Aldrich's rep he's picked up this season of not playing "big" like he should. Aldrich ultimately got pulled at the end as Kansas was forced to put on the full court press.

And Collins certainly didn't help any, putting on a downright Jonny Flynn performance. 4-15 shooting, 0-6 from three, 5 turnovers, only 4 assists, and a panic attack at the end. He, Henry, and Tayshawn Taylor lost their composure, pounded the ball into the hardwood with no direction, and jacked up quick, contested shots. It was pretty ugly.

Credit too, though, UNI's defense. They came out understanding they had a quickness advantage on the wings, and used it to really get up into Kansas' system, forcing turnovers and isolating KU's guards from each other to stop ball movement and force bad shots.

Also credit Ali Farokhmanesh for one of the gutsiest shots I've ever seen in the tournament.

So what does this do? Well, for one, it really wrecks just about everyone's brackets. Two, it probably puts a sizable dent in the draft stocks of Aldrich and Henry. Three, it gives Ohio State a very realistic chance at the Final Four. And four, it practically gift wraps the championship for Kentucky, as long as they don't get a Vikings-esque prima donna syndrome and let their overconfidence undo them (which, honestly, is a rather realistic possibility as well...)

And now for this week's shocking NBA news...

Tom Penn is out as the Trailblazer's Vice President of Operations:

Yes, the same Tom Penn who was nearly hired to be our VPO this past summer. He chose to stick with the Blazers after they offered him a big raise and prestigious promotion.

And now he's gone. What happened? Well, there's two theories, and both probably have some truth to them.

The first is that Vulcan Inc, the management and investment firm founded by Microsoft co-founder and Blazers' owner Paul Allen, didn't believe that we actually offered him a job. IE, Penn made up the whole thing just to get his raise and promotion.

Well, we know that isn't true; anyone who paid attention to the situation knows that we made every effort to sign Penn, to the point the insiders considered it a done deal.

Posted on May 17th, 2009 – 9:47 PM
By Jerry Zgoda

From everything I’m hearing, Tom Penn is signed, sealed and delivered (or at least completely agreed to, give me some poetic license for the Stevie Wonder reference). I’m guessing a Tuesday press conference, just hours before the team learns its draft lottery fate.

So either the Vulcans (snicker..) didn't pay attention or didn't believe what they heard. They are, after all, not basketball minds. But they are apparently fairly vindictive. Reports say they've wanted Penn fired all year, and have been just waiting for a semi-legitimate reason to make it happen.

The reason they came up with (also known as the second theory behind why Penn was fired) was "philosophical differences". Whatever that means. Not that I'm, by any means, an insider into the inner workings of the Blazers, but I'll take my best guess here...

Penn was General Manager Kevin Pritchard's salary cap expert. His job was money management....how much to spend where. Well, Paul Allen is not, by any means, a poor man. He has so much net worth that not only does he own the Blazers, but he made an attempt to also buy the Sonics to keep them from leaving Seattle (shot down, of course, on the obvious conflict of interests problem).

Reports say the Vulcan group blames Penn for the Blazers not landing a top free agent this past summer....namely Hedo Turkoglu. Which, to me, translates as "the money guy didn't offer Hedo enough money". If Penn, as a salary cap-ologist, has been saying "limit the spending", while the ownership gurus are saying "spend whatever it takes"....well, there's a philosophical difference. Stupid, short-sighted, uninformed....but it's there.

But you want to know what the real surprise here is? That's not the shocking part of this story...

Kevin Pritchard is reportedly being forced out the door too:

Um. What???

I sounds absurd. Pritchard is Portland's golden boy....credited with almost singlehandedly digging the team out from the Jailblazer years. Draft two role players and trade them for two franchise cornerstones? Check. Stockpile a mass amount of wing talent? Check. Sell of Zach Randolph and actually have the other team happy to get him? Well....it was Isiah Thomas, but check.

But the Vulcans apparently don't discriminate when it comes to their vindictiveness. The same way they blame Penn for losing out of Hedo and Paul Millsap, they also reportedly blame Pritchard for a number of quarrels, first and foremost the decision to draft Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant (and despite what John Hollinger says, not all 30 teams would have drafted Oden).

The NBA world is just learning of this all now, but apparently this has been brewing for a while, with KP not only aware of it, but hedging his bets as well. Warren LeGarie, the agent for both Pritchard and Penn, had this to say:

"We've been given no indication that this team sees Kevin as somebody who will be there on a long-term basis. All we've seen is them taking away people that Kevin feels are important to his ability to do his job successfully.

"I've been a Blazer fan from early on. I've been involved in some way with the team for many many years. I want them to be successful. They gave Kevin an unbelievably wonderful opportunity. But in order to make that opportunity work, he still needs to have people who believe in him around him, and people that he'd like to have, and that's certainly not the case anymore."

Sources say Pritchard tasked LeGarie with finding him a new job starting last summer. And well....it might be a smart pre-emptive strike. Blazers' president Larry Miller was very non-committal when asked his thoughts:

"I can never commit to anybody being around long term. I don't know that I'll be here long term. That's just not the way it works. To me, Kevin is our GM, and my feeling is we should focus on finishing out the season, trying to win games, trying to have a successful run in the playoffs. That should be our focus right now. The situation with Tom was an isolated incident. It's unfortunate, but hopefully we can put it behind us."

Will Paul Allen gain enough control over Vulcan Inc to keep Pritchard from being outed? Does he even want Pritchard around in the first place? No one really knows right now, but certainly this all is something the injury-plagued Blazers do not need.

Well. On to happier news...

Michael Jordan has been approved as the new owner of the Charlotte Bobcats:

Granted, this has been a foregone conclusion for weeks now, but making it official still sets some big precedents. Jordan is now the first former NBA player to own an NBA team. He's also only the second black owner (the first being the man he bought to team from, Robert Johnson). And Jordan plans to make the most of the opportunity to run the team playing for the state he grew up in.

Jordan has, technically, been running the Bobcats for years now...at least the basketball side of things....but there should still be some big changes now that he doesn't have to clear his decisions with anyone. He's had a better run with the Cats than he did at the helm of the Wizards, so here's hoping, right? We have a draft pick riding on all this after all.

MJ said owning the Bobcats is "a dream come true", adding, "Purchasing the Bobcats is the culmination of my post-playing career goal of becoming the majority owner of an NBA franchise. I am especially pleased to have the opportunity to build a winning team in my home state of North Carolina."

While the Bobcats focus on finishing out the year, the Heat may be looking more towards next season...

Dwyane Wade plans on talking with other big name free agents about playing in Miami next year:

Specifically LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire.

LeBron, I would say, is about as close to a zero percent chance as there is without actually being zero. It's an interesting thought, a good topic for debate....but the honest possibility that LeBron will walk away from a ready-made contender in his home state is minute on a fractional level.

Bosh and Stoudemire are much better odds. The Raptors are all but out of the playoffs for good at this point, and everyone knows there's a fallout looming between STAT and the Suns.

Well, not much else to say about this. Feel free to spend the rest of this section watching DWade be amazing.

The video actually highlights two things Wade does better than anyone in the NBA: get defenders in the air with the pump fake, and split the double team off pick and rolls. His ability to do the latter, especially, is extremely impressive.

Oh, and as San Antonio is proving, even the good teams are thinking about next year.

Are the Spurs planning to trade Tiago Splitter for Chris Bosh?

A few Spurs insiders think so.

Rubio is the best guard in the Spanish National league....maybe the best guard in all of Europe. Well. Consider Splitter his big man counterpart. And it turns out his situation could be an unfortunate foreshadowing of our own with Rubio. Highlighted are little quips here and there that are being made about Splitter, but could easily be made about Rubio as well. From the mySA newspaper:

Tiago Splitter, the Spurs' first-round pick in 2007, is widely acknowledged as the best big man in Europe. This summer, he has an opt-out clause in his contract with Tau Ceramica, the Spanish League team for which he has played since he was a teenager.

This was thought to be good timing for the Spurs. The league's collective bargaining agreement contains language that allows teams to treat first-rounders who play three years for non-NBA teams, post-draft, as if they are free agents. It will have been three years this June since the Spurs made Splitter the 28th selection of the 2007 draft, so he falls into that category.

Up to now, the Spurs had been limited to offering the 6-foot-11 center $970,000 for the first year of his rookie scale contract. Now, they can offer a lot more, but they are still bound by collective bargaining agreement rules. Just as they have no cap room to offer big money to free agents from other teams this summer, they are limited to cap exceptions as they try to lure Splitter.

The most they can offer: The mid-level cap exception, expected to be around $5 million.

Trouble is, even that amount likely won't pry him out of Spain. That's because the prospect of an NBA lockout that could wipe out the entire 2011-12 season is enough to make any player making mega-Euros think twice about bolting for the NBA. Splitter's deal reportedly is worth more than $5 million.

Make of that what you will...

As for Splitter, "That's why they're probably not going to get him, even for the full mid-level," said one NBA executive. "If you've got a nice, guaranteed deal over in Europe, why would you sign over here and face a lockout? It's more likely they'll try to do a sign-and-trade that includes his rights."

Bosh has been the Spurs' #1 target since 2008. He's a Texas native, a big man, highly productive, and....this season....highly unhappy. The Spurs seemingly torpedoed their own plan of signing him over the summer by trading for Richard Jefferson last summer, which ate up all their cap space. Well...that move hasn't exactly worked out. And with Splitter's availability up in the air and Bosh's availability seemingly 100% there, why not?

What would the Raptors get out of the deal? Well, as mentioned, Splitter is quite a talent.

You can also take a look at his DraftExpress profile here. He's averaging 13 points and 6 rebounds in Europe....16 and 7 in the ACB league....shooting high percentages and moving the ball well. The few times I've seen him play, I've come away with the impression of a young Pau Gasol with the intensity of Kenyon Martin.

The Raptors, of course, are going Euro....Jose Calderon, Hedo, and Andrea Bargnani are starters....and well, if you're going to go Euro, go Euro right? Splitter's bruising inside game would be a pretty good compliment to the sweet shooting Bargnani on offense, and....well, their defense can't get any worse than it already is, right?

At 7' tall, with a 7'2" wingspan and a 9'2" standing reach, Splitter is a formidable physical presence in the paint. I'm sure if the Spurs can find a way to afford him, they'll keep him. But if not....

And making sadder waves overseas...

Jeremy Tyler has quit his Israeli team:

Some of you are familiar with Tyler, as the newest experiment in circumventing the NBA's age limit rule. Instead of foregoing his freshman year of high school, Tyler decided to try giving up his senior year of high school instead, and....well, he wasn't ready for it. I'm sure a lot of people were agreeing with Skip Bayless on this, but Jalen Rose has turned out to be something of a prophet.

I wrote way back in November 15ths update that Tyler was not doing well with his Maccabi Haifa team.

"His coach calls him lazy and out of shape. The team captain says he is soft. His teammates say he needs to learn to shut up and show up on time. He has no friends on the team. In extensive interviews with Tyler, his teammates, coaches, his father and advisers, the consensus is that he is so naïve and immature that he has no idea how naïve and immature he is."

"Tyler has played little, has been fined for team violations, has fought with the coach and teammates ... all in a couple months."

Well, none of that changed. He's averaged just 2 points and 2 rebounds, and played only 8 minutes a game. Last month, he walked out on the team at halftime to protest not getting more minutes. For the last three games, he sat on the bench not wearing a uniform after being left off the Haifa tournament squad. And, of course, he made the decision to leave the team and head home without telling...well, anyone.

"I'm as surprised as you are. We had no idea he was coming home," Tyler's agent Makhtar Ndiaye of the Wasserman Media Group told ESPN's William Weinbaum. "I'm speechless at this point and look forward to speaking with Jeremy. A contract, a learning process -- things weren't great -- but it was part of growing up. I'm disappointed and frustrated."

For the record, I've felt all along that Tyler was going to end up in over his head. Reading about what Brandon Jennings went through last year with Lomattica Roma...the culture shock, the two-a-days, the hyper-critical coaches and media...I just had a feeling this wouldn't end well. A 16 year old kid thinking he'd go overseas and become a millionaire star in a land of grown men (and civil war...)? That just doesn't seem like a story with a happy ending, does it?

Which throws into question his entire character. Getting caught up in your own ego? Complaining about your coach not catering to your sense of self-entitlement? Quitting on your team with 5 weeks left in the season? And not telling anyone about it? Some NBA scouts say this won't affect Tyler's NBA chances. I couldn't disagree more. For whatever free passes he gets because of his age, these things build a reputation...and everyone knows what they say about first impressions.

On a brighter note, Latavious Williams is doing pretty well in the DLeague:

Williams is the other "get around the NBA rules" experiment...instead of going to college, he chose to go to the DLeague (Tulsa 66ers to be specific) where he's averaging about 7 points and 7 rebounds a game. But those stats don't show the true extent of his progress. From his DX profile:

From what we’re told, Williams came into training camp with little to no concept of the nuances of playing professional basketball. He was just asked to "run and jump in high school," and things like half-court spacing, defensive rotations, advance scouting and other basic concepts were largely a mystery to him. Had he shown up in Europe in this state, there is little doubt that he would have been on the first plane back home before the jet lag could even set in.

According to everyone we’ve spoken with, he’s been a very willing student all season long, responding extremely well to coaching and showing an excellent work ethic, two things that definitely bode well for his future.

While the mainstream media lost interest in Williams just about as quickly as they learned his name, there is no doubt that he’s improved considerably in his time in the D-League, something that high school players around America should surely take note of.

The interesting thing about Williams is that he does not seem to get caught up in the selfishness that often plagues the D-League. While he surely deserves credit for this, this is just as much a testament to his coaching staff (led by the well-respected Nate Tibbetts) and the entire Tulsa organization, as they refused to just spoon-feed him minutes early on in the year and really made him earn his playing time by doing things the right way.

All in all, there is a lot of things to be impressed about when evaluating Latavious Williams’ first season out of high school, even if he obviously still has a long ways to go. Many will look at his unremarkable per-game numbers and want to close the book on him, but digging deeper does reveal some intriguing things.

Williams is currently projected as the 19th pick in the second round by DX....and before anyone makes a fuss about whether he should declare or not, I should point out that all DLeague players are automatically entered into the draft pool each year.

I certainly think Williams would benefit more from another year with the 66ers than being drafted and potentially sitting on the bench every night. The DLeague is a good half-step between high school and the NBA. It's affiliated with the NBA, it's run by NBA talent, scouted by NBA scouts, and teaches (more or less) the NBA system. Whereas I think Tyler's story is going to end in unemployment, I think Williams' story will end in success, and pave the way for others to jump from high school to the DLeague in his footsteps.

And speaking of high schoolers who turned pro...

LeBron James became the youngest player ever to reach 15,000 points:

James beat Kobe Bryant's record by two years. 15,000 NBA points and he's 25 years old. Unbelievable.

And speaking of Bryant, Kobe had some kind words for Kurt Rambis this week...

Kobe and Phil believe in Kurt Rambis:

He doesn't seem to have many fans here, but he still has two big ones that count for a lot: Black Mamba and the Zen master.

"Kurt's had a real good mind-set towards that [losing]," Jackson said. "He always has. He went to an expansion team after playing for the Lakers. That expansion team did pretty well. They won 20-something games, I think in Charlotte in that first season. He ended up being on a Sacramento team that had some issues later on in his career before getting into assistant coaching with Phoenix at the end of his career."

"Having been there myself as an assistant coach of a team that lost [17] in a row, you see the heads drop and issues start with individual players and things happening where it becomes excuses after excuses because losing is very hard to deal with in this game, particularly when everything is generated out of winning."

One thing I think we all agree one: Rambis has done a good job of not letting the team take on a defeatist attitude this year.

Kobe added, "He knew what he was getting into when he went there in terms of the team trying to rebuild. It's been a tough year for him, but they're executing extremely well, actually. It's always a work in progress. ... They have a couple key pieces, so they should be fine."

Phil says he keeps in frequent contact with Rambis still, and (get this) has been following us closely all year.

And a last NBA tidbit before getting to the college ball...

Stephen Curry played one hell of a game against the Lakers:

And I don't just say that to make S-n-P unhappy, because believe me, I'm as unhappy as he is to see Curry going off. Over the last two months, Curry has averaged 21 points and 7 assists on over 45% shooting. But it's the way he's getting it done that's most impressive.

One play in the LAL/GSW game was very telling. Curry had the ball and was running in the middle of a pack. He stopped on a dime at the top of the three point line and looked to shoot. Didn't like it. Looked to pass right. Didn't like it. Looked to pass left. Didn't like it. Looked to shoot again. Didn't like it. Turned around looking for a trailer. Didn't find anyone. Finally he goes 360 all the way around, realized the Lakers defense had overshot him trying to pack the paint, pulled up and hit a three.

The whole time guys are flying left and right and up and down and everywhere around him.....and he just stood there, patiently waiting to see what he could get. No rush, no panic, no attempts to force a play. It was the ultimate IQ play, accentuated even more by the fact the 9 other guys on the court were in complete chaos.

In the rookie PG battle this year, Evans is the biggest. Lawson is the fastest. Flynn is probably the most explosive (although that explosiveness unfortunately gets directed the wrong way a lot...) Jennings, I'd say, is the best facilitator. And until a month ago, I would have said Curry is the best shooter. Which he still is, but there's something that stands out to me even more: he's the smartest.

Curry epitomizes high IQ. He's a master at taking what the defense give him. He lives off of making the easy play. He has a Ray Allen-esque ability to get his shot off against all physical odds no matter what gets thrown at him. And he plays with the craft of a 15 year veteran. It's incredible to watch.

Seriously people. Watch the video.

Tyreke Evans still leads the Rookie of the Year race, and I have no problem with that. The Kings are a better team, and Evans is putting up numbers as a rookie that puts him in a class with Oscar Robertson and LeBron James.

BUT

Curry will be better in the end. Possibly the best player from the entire draft. Better than Blake Griffin. Better than Brandon Jennings. And yes...I can see him being better than Rubio (hard comparison there though....like Nash and Kidd) Just about everyone sold his facilitating ability short before the draft, his defense hasn't been a liability (well....any more of a liability than one would expect out of Nellie ball...), and his shooting is pure on a whole different level.

I was browsing a couple boards during the Lakers/Warriors game and made an offhand comment about how smart Curry looked. And immediately got bombarded by quips about how good a Curry/Rubio backcourt could have been. Like I haven't thought about that every day since draft night....

Anyway, Curry also put up a triple double against the Clippers a month ago. 36 points, 10 rebounds, 13 assists. It was an all-in-one highlight reel of everything that makes Steph Curry a special player.

And wouldn't you know it, Curry also leads us into the draft talk....

Draft Watch:

Hollinger unveiled his college PER stats this week. Last year's PER leader? Steph Curry. This year's is DeMarcus Cousins.

However, before anyone goes off the deep end using PER as a way to rank college players for the draft, let's note a few things:

Of the top 30 PER players, only 7 appear in DraftExpress' first round
DeMarcus Cousins
Evan Turner
Damion James
Hassan Whiteside
Larry Sanders
James Anderson
Quincy Pondexter

Of the top 50 PER players, only 9 appear in DraftExpress' first round...the above 7, plus
Cole Aldrich
Ed Davis

Likewise, of the top 15 PER players, only 2 appear in Chad Ford's mock projection
Evan Turner
DeMarcus Cousins

Of the top 50 PER players, only 6 appear in Chad Ford's top 20
DeMarcus Cousins
Evan Turner
Hassan Whiteside
Larry Sanders
Cole Aldrich
James Anderson

So like, pro PER, college PER comes with a list of qualifiers. For one, as most of you have already noticed, it heavily favors rebounding. Two, conference can have a huge impact on production. For example...

Jordan Eglseder #2 PER: Missouri Valley, 1 team in the tournament (UNI)
UNI didn't play a ranked team all year

Greg Monroe #68 PER: Big East, 8 teams in the tournament (Syracuse, WVU, Villanova, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame)...Syracuse #1 seed in the tourney
Georgeown played 11 games against ranked teams

Now, granted Eglseder is part of the UNI team that knocked off Kansas today, while Georgetown was the first victim of a Cinderella upset. But no GM on the face of the earth will take him over Monroe, and factoring in the difference in competition they faced is a part of that.

Now is that the deciding line? There's plenty of other things to consider....physicals, basketball IQ, temperment. Jason Thompson came out of little Rider and has proven he most definitely belongs in the NBA. Just keep in mind that Jason Thompson's are exceptions, not the norm.

But most of all, I reiterate the argument I made earlier in the month.....while mocks disagree on exact potential and placement, they're not stupid as a group. If a guy is low in all the mocks, or doesn't show up at all, there's a good reason for it.

One thing I do find incredible within PER's vacuum though, is that even when graded by a metric that heavily favors big men, Evan Turner is still at the top of the list. #5 overall, thanks in large part to the fact his rebounding grades out as well as any center. I'm not trying to say, "well I don't like PER, but I like it when it applies to Evan Turner". I don't like PER, period. I just find it amazing that, no matter what metric gets used, Turner always ends up near the top.

Anyway, a few odds and ends notes to wrap things up this week:

-- Greg Monroe says he's staying at Georgetown for his senior year. Did he mean it, or was he just doing the "team spirit" thing? I don't know. "I'm ready to go back and see how I can help my team next year," is was he said at the end of G'Town's loss to Ohio, but even his own coach isn't so sure about that. "You know, I think that he's going to sit and make that decision as time goes on right here," responded John Thompson III.

Monroe had a Corey Brewer-like game of extremes. The good: 19 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 blocks. The bad: 7 turnovers, fouled out, lost the game. If he declares, I think he's a late lottery pick, which I think is about as good as he can hope for this year or next. That's something I'm sure a lot of people will be telling him in the next couple of weeks, so we'll see how it plays out.

-- Evan Turner shot just 2-13, but still grabbed 10 rebounds, dropped 5 dimes, and shut down James Nunnally at the other end. Jonny Flynn, takes notes. This is how you contribute without scoring.

-- Kentucky steamrolled Wake Forest today. It was pretty competitive until Al Farouq Aminu picked up his third foul just halfway through the first half....and it was over from there on out. Averaging 16-11, Aminu is a top 10 prospect who can be the kind of do-it-all small forward so highly valued in today's NBA. But this certainly wasn't the way he wanted to go out, and doesn't help his rep of being an inconsistent and unfocused player.

-- Kalin Lucas gave me a hand, backing up my Aaron Brooks comparison. 25 points, 4 assists on 7-11 shooting (3-5 from three, 8-12 from the line) in a 70-65 win over New Mexico State. Again, a player I think we should be watching closely as a late first round pick.

Well, I can at least console myself with the fact just about everyone's bracket collapsed with Kansas today.

Even Obama's bracket fell apart, after what had, to that point, been a near-prophetic run (Murray State over Vanderbilt? Seriously, who predicts that kind of stuff???)

But I have to say, this has been as exciting a tournament so far as I can remember. Some people lament about the lack of a clear cut best team....after all it made everyone's job easy last year inking in UNC to win it all. But at the same time, no big dogs means everything's competitive, and it's definitely been competitive.

Sweet 16s up next, so tune in and I'll see you all next week.

A Real Statistical Comparison for Jonny Flynn

2010-03-20T21:15:22Z

A few weeks back, after the game with the Mavericks, I wrote a quick Fanpost noting the statistical similarities between Jonny Flynn's rookie year and Jason Terry's rookie year. However, I wanted to do a bit more analysis before anointing Flynn the next Jason Terry.

Finding a Flynn Comparison

Using Basketball-Reference's season finder, I grabbed every player 6'2" or shorter in their rookie season having played more than 615 minutes played (15mp/g over at least 41 games) since the three point line was put in (1979-1980). I then divided their statistics (MP/G, PER, TS%, eFG%, AST%, STL%, TOV%, USG%, ORtg and DRtg) by Flynn's statistics, giving a percentage result that was, essentially, "closeness to Flynn". I then squared those results and averaged the squares in order to find a comparison to Flynn.

Why Squared?

Pretend that there are only two statistics that matter: TS% and 3P%. Pretend that Flynn has a 50% TS% and 35% 3P%. Player A, has 55% TS% and 31.5% 3P%. Player B, on the other hand, has an 82% TS% and a 12.25% 3P% (impossible, but bear with me). If you do the math, Player A is 10% better at TS%, 10% worse at 3P%. Player B is 65% better and worse at the same statistics. Average them out, and you get 1.00; both are equal in comparison to Flynn. But Player A is obviously the closer comparison. By squaring the results (110% and 90% versus 165% and 35%) and averaging them out, Player A is now a 1.01 in comparison to Flynn's 1.00, while Player B is 1.42. Outliers are made much more significant when squaring.

Weaknesses of This Analysis

First of all, a player with two extreme outliers, even due to squaring, will statistically be closer to Flynn despite the outliers. The raw average (which, BTW, has Mario Chalmers as the closest comparison) is not to be taken at Face value. Chalmers, for instance, was far better at collecting steals, far worse at using possessions and within .2 on just about everything else. Averaging them out mitigates the outliers.

Some statistics are probably more important than others. I'd personally rather have a guy who never steals the ball but shoots 65% from the field. Giving equal weight to everything doesn't make sense in the real world, nor does it make sense statistically. It also makes much more sense to use actual statistical software. When I get a minute, I'll pop in my old SPSS and see if I can't work some more magic.

The biggest problem of all is, strangely, with Flynn. He uses so many possessions, it's astounding. There are SIX short rookies since 1979-1980 who used the ball as much as Flynn - Allen Iverson, Isiah Thomas, Brandon Jennings, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Chucky Atkins and Kelvin Ransey. Jennings is probably the best comparison, and it's not a good one; plus, we don't know what will happen to Jennings in the future.

After the Jump - The Comparisons

Keep in mind, the comparisons are probably optimistic, because rarely do players get minutes like Flynn does without being either pretty good players or projected to be pretty good players.

Player	Ht	Age	G	MP	MP/G	PER	AST%	TOV%	STL%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	TS%	eFG%	FG%	3P%	FT%
Jonny Flynn	5'11"	20	69	1996	28.9	13.0	24.7	17.5	1.8	24.3	97	113	0.502	0.450	0.412	0.346	0.823
Jameer Nelson	5'11"	22	79	1612	20.4	14.5	24.8	14.8	2.5	21.4	103	108	0.510	0.490	0.455	0.312	0.682
Raymond Felton	6'1"	21	80	2406	30.1	14.2	30.9	15.7	2.2	21.4	100	109	0.483	0.446	0.391	0.358	0.725
Bobby Jackson	6'1"	24	68	2042	30.0	13.6	29.5	17.4	2.8	23.5	92	111	0.453	0.405	0.392	0.259	0.814
Nick Van Exel	6'1"	22	81	2700	33.3	13.6	25.4	11.3	1.6	19.9	106	113	0.485	0.452	0.394	0.338	0.781
Travis Mays	6'2"	22	64	2145	33.5	12.3	18.3	15.5	1.9	21.0	102	112	0.526	0.456	0.406	0.365	0.770
Tony Parker	6'2"	19	77	2267	29.4	11.7	23.9	17.5	2.1	17.7	99	103	0.497	0.467	0.419	0.323	0.675
Jonny Flynn	5'11"	20	69	1996	28.9	13.0	24.7	17.5	1.8	24.3	97	113	0.502	0.450	0.412	0.346	0.823

Analysis

Out of all the guys up there, Jameer Nelson is probably the worst comparison. Didn't play as many minutes, shot better from 2P, way worse from the FT Line and was pretty different overall. His AST% is dead on though and he definitely improved from his rookie year to now. He's up and down, but if Flynn is Nelson, I approve.

Raymond Felton is also not a superb comparison. He did shoot worse than Flynn is currently shooting, but he was (and still is) a much better facilitator. Not that great of a player though. His shooting stroke has not improved that much and it remains to be seen whether he's an NBA starter.

Bobby Jackson is probably the only player on the list who might have had a worse rookie year than Flynn. Awful shooting, just awful. He improved dramatically during his career though (but has primarily been a 6th man). And he passes better too. He's also a great rebounder, which I left out of this analysis, but certainly makes him more valuable.

Nick Van Exel is a pretty solid comparison - wasn't a big passer, shot similarly, played a lot of minutes, wasn't great on defense. Turned the ball over less, but pretty similar all around. He turned into a real PG though, with 5 years in the top 10 for assists/game. Certainly promising.

Travis Mays is probably the worst case scenario out of all the players up there. He played for a year, ruptured both Achilles Tendons in his second season and only played one more year. Played in Europe for quite a few years though. Not very useful as a comparison, but he had a pretty similar first year.

And the best case scenario: Tony Parker. Parker as a rookie was not good. Didn't shoot well, didn't score much, turned the ball over too much, etc... He was 19 though, and adjusting to his first year in America. Plus, he was pretty good on defense (though he did have Tim Duncan and David Robinson behind him). He's improved tremendously and might be one of the top five point guards in the league right now. Flynn looks pretty similar to him, and it's not out of the question that he turns it around like Parker did.

For the record, I left off Jason Terry because of my earlier analysis. He's actually still a good comparison; very similar shooting and similarly offensively and defensively. Terry is a better distributor though. Which is pretty sad.

Conclusion

Patience is a virtue. While Flynn looks like a lost cause sometimes, there are plenty of other point guards who turned it around. Van Exel and Parker became excellent starters, Nelson is solid, Jackson was great as a 6th man, Felton is about average, and could be good in a PG rotation and Mays, while unsuccessful, probably wasn't in control of his tendons tearing. These point guards did start to show their true colors with more experience; virtually all of them who did take a step forward did it pretty early. We could have something good on our hands. Lets relax and see it through to next season.

Poll

Who do you believe is the best comparison to Jonny Flynn?

Omar Samhan

2010-03-20T18:25:56Z

I can't for the life of me figure out why this guy doesn't show up in any mock drafts. I realize that Kevin Love and Al Jefferson look like speed demons in comparison to him... But I've watched him in two tourney games, and he as been fantastic in both. This guy looks like a pretty talented big, and to think that no one is going to drop even a 2nd round pick on him seems ridiculous. I realize he's in a pretty lame conference, but he's dominated the better teams he has played. He punished Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Richmond, and is completely dominating Villanova. Can Somebody tell me why this guys game doesn't translate? I know that he's speed is obviously a problem, but to think that a center that averages 21 and 11 cant get a look in the pros is pretty odd to me.

If you've read this, and still have no Idea who I'm talking about go to:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/players/47599

Stumbling on Wins

2010-03-20T17:16:42Z

David Berri and Martin Schmidt of Wages of Wins fame have a new book out soon called Stumbling on Wins that was recently reviewed on True Hoop by Henry Abbott. It's quite interesting, and I wanted to point it out for anyone interested. Some ruminations after the jump.

Stats analysts, right or wrong, generally get ignored for one of two reasons: either they aren't good writers, and hence do a poor job of communicating their ideas, or they lack humility and hence piss people off before they have a chance to really consider the ideas. Take, for example, Bill James. He's always been a pretty good writer (though he's gotten a lot better), but early in his career he was so blunt that he turned a lot of people off. It wasn't until he softened his approach by admitting there is much that he doesn't know that he has been embraced (relatively) by the baseball establishment. Abbott makes the point that Berri and Schmidt are too blunt in their assertions given how much we still don't know. However, they present certain ideas that are worth considering:

1. Teams radically overvalue players who do well in the NCAA tournament. Something we should especially be aware of as the Wolves evaluate draft prospects. Berri writes that appearing in a final 4 can improve draft position by 12 spots. Yikes. I wonder if we didn't see a species of this last season with Jonny Flynn. His amazing game in the Big East Tournament, plus getting to the Sweet 16 could not have hurt his draft stock; and in fact he began to shoot up draft boards around this time. Beware the late riser. Another draft note they make is that, despite rebounding ability being one of the most transferable skills from college to the pros, rebounding ability does not really effect draft position. Points, efficiency, size, and assists are among the stats that do effect draft position.

2. NBA teams radically overpay for scoring. Undoubtedly true, and perhaps at the center of our site's debate over Al Jefferson. I used to fall into this trap, and probably still do on occasion. I used to defend Allen Iverson, arguing that a) getting 25 shots off in an NBA game is a skill, and b) that even at low percentages, his teams were often better off with him hoisting because that's all they had. We have a slightly different argument about Jefferson, it seems to me, which is that you need someone who can put the ball in the basket, and that trading away Jefferson will create such a dearth of inside scoring that to trade him away would be a big mistake. But he's also the highest paid player on the team, and he's so highly paid because he scores points. If his points are overvalued by his contract, then trading him does make sense.

There are other interesting notes in the review, about peak age, defense, and more. You should check it out.

Because I have a half hour until my fantasy baseball draft...

2010-03-20T17:09:12Z

I thought I would write up my Wolves off season predictions...just like a bunch already have.

First...who is on contract for next year?

1.Flynn

2.Sessions

3.Hollins

4.Love

5.Brewer

6.Jefferson

7.Ellington

Second...who is staying put?

1.Everyone but one of the Love/Jefferson combo and/or one of the Flynn/Sessions combo. Also, if Hollins could be gotten ridden of then he is gone too. That is, four or five players from this years team will be with the team next year...

1.Flynn or Sessions (only one)

2.Love or Jefferson (only one)

3.Brewer

4.Ellington

5.Hollins

Third...how many wins do we project to win next year? 30

1. This means we need some semblance of continuity with this year, player acclimation.

2. Talent improvement, draft and trades

3. Evening out the roster positionally.

Fourth...what trades do we do?

1. Jefferson and Charlotte pick to Indiana for Troy Murphy and their #1 Pick

2. If we get #1 overall and draft John Wall then...we trade Sessions and the Utah pick to move up and take an athletic big with good hands and a high BBIQ (the anti-Hollins)

3. If we get Evan Turner then we keep both Flynn and Sessions unless a nice little deal comes though, but no need to move either one.

Fifth...recap roster...

1. Flynn/Sessions

2. Ellington

3. Brewer

4. Love/Murphy

5. Hollins

Sixth...draft...we pick 2 very early (our pick and Indiana's) and 1 middle plus three 2nd rounders (I think)

1. We want Wall or Turner...if it takes trading both of the higher picks then we do it.

2. We want athletic big with hands and high BBIQ with middle pick.

3. We want to fill our roster with 2nd rounders.

Seventh...recap again

If we get #1 pick...

1. Wall/Flynn

2. Ellington/(Johnson or Aminu w/Indiana pick)

3. Brewer

4. Love/Murphy

5. Big Drafted/Hollins

If we get 2nd pick....

1. Flynn/Sessions

2. Turner/Ellington

3. Brewer/ Johnson or Aminu

4. Love/Murphy

5. Big Drafted/Hollins

If we get 3rd thru 5th pick...we cry.

Eighth...we bring in Pekovic and never let Hollins off the bench.

1. Same rosters as above only with Pekovic in front of Hollins (and probably the rookie as well)

Ninth...we take a nap....

We Were Merely Freshmen

2010-03-20T05:03:44Z

A quick and dirty comparison to the freshman numbers of John Wall, Evan Turner, Derrick Rose, and Tyreke Evans...

Wall (Kentucky SOS: 62nd)

Ortg, 107.8
Poss%, 27.4
eFG%, 49.6
offReb%, 2.6
defReb%, 10.0
AstRate, 33.9
TO Rate, 23.7
Steal%, 2.9
FT rate, 54.7
3pt%, 31% (96 attempts)

Turner (Ohio State 2008 SOS: 33rd)

Ortg, 95.6
Poss%, 21.0
eFG%, 51.9
offReb%, 4.1
defReb%, 13.7
AstRate, 18.4
TO Rate, 28.8
Steal%, 2.9
FT rate, 44.4
3pt%, 33% (69 attempts)

Derrick Rose (2008 Memphis SOS: 64th)

Ortg, 111.8
Poss%, 27.2
eFG%, 51.7
offReb%, 5.0
defReb%, 11.7
AstRate, 30.4
TO Rate, 19.1
Steal%, 2.3
FT rate, 47.0
3pt%, 33% (104 attempts)

Tyreke Evans (2009 Memphis SOS: 69th)

Ortg, 101.0
Poss%, 33.5
eFG%, 48.9
offReb%, 5.0
defReb%, 15.3
AstRate, 30.0
TO Rate, 21.6
Steal%, 4.2
FT rate, 38.4
3pt%, 27% (124 attempts)

First, sorry about the lack of slick formatting.

And I know Turner didn't break out until he was a sophomore, but I wanted to keep this as apples-to-apples as possible. And age-context needs to be considered, anyway.

Info's from Ken Pomeroy.

SB Nation Survey + Chance to donate $500 to a charity of this community's choice

2010-03-20T00:47:53Z

>> Take SB Nation Survey

Hello sports fans! We're always striving to provide you with the best experience possible and it's been quite some time since we checked in with you.

So we're rolling out this survey to learn more about you and your sports world. It should only take about 10 minutes to complete.

We really appreciate your time and this is also going to help make a donation to a good cause.

By next Thursday (3/25) at 11:59pm PST the site that has the highest percentage of their community filling out the attached survey about their sports interests and consumption will win $500 to donate to a charity of their choice. We will leave it up to the discretion of the community manager(s) of the winning blog to decide how to choose the particular charity.

You can take the survey HERE

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/WYR2WQT

Thanks for your support!

A reason why Wolves fans are so frustrated, we are not alone!

2010-03-19T21:00:54Z

The last week or two, I've seen a lot of posts showing how frustrated Wolves fans are at this time. I was surprised how frustrated because it seems like the results this season were expected, though it just seems worse than expected.

I did some checking around the NBA. I think much of our frustration may be linked to financial changes happening in the NBA. These changes are largely due to economics, lowering salaries to get free agents, and possibly preparing for the new CBA. I did a look at team salaries last season and this season. I was expecting the total to be lower, and that has happened. However, I was surprised at how it has happened. I used a simple dividing line, top 15 payrolls and bottom 15 payrolls to compare this year and last season. The top 15 payrolls this season have actually increased by an average of $1 million per team, which shocked me. On the flip side, the bottom 15 payrolls decreased by an average if about $2.7 million this season. In other words, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Obviously our beloved Wolves fit in the bottom half of payrolls.

I believe this is part of the reason this season has been more frustrating than even the pessimists were anticipating. The talent gulf between the top and bottom teams has increased this season, which of course leads to not just losses, but also fewer competitive games (see Timberwolves). To see this, I checked records at the end of a couple recent seasons. The '06-'07 season had 3 teams with fewer than 30 wins, the worst was 22 wins. The Wolves and Blazers tied for the 6th worst record that season with 32 wins. The '07-'08 team had 7 teams under 30 wins.

This season, it looks like at least 9, maybe 10 teams will be under 30 wins, and 2 will win less than 20, with one about to establish a new all-time low number of wins.

I was introduced to a new word a couple months ago on this site...Suckitude. I think the bottom tier of the NBA has established a new level of Suckitude, and unfortunately our favorite NBA team is a perfect example. It sounds like the NBA wants to address this issue in the new CBA. I hope they find a solution because the current path is creating a pretty ugly league for too many fans.

My mock offseason: Medicine for the Wolves free fall.

2010-03-19T20:58:01Z

We're in free fall to the finish line. We've got a mismatched roster and a stubborn coach. What's left, but to dream of better days. It makes me feel better. Piggybacking on multple things...

-Assume the Wolves stay at #2. A big assumption, but we can hope right?

-Draft day trade of Al and Brewer for Tayshaun Prince and the #6 (thanks Blakely?). I don't know how likely this is, but Detroit would seem like a team that might be willing to "win now" given how much money they spent last year and their committed salaries. They lack a true big. Brewer fills Prince's space for a year. We land a very good complementary 3 with defense, length and 3 point shooting. Prince is too old for our long term plans, but has a handy expiring contract.

-Trade up from 6 using the Charlotte pick for a top 4 pick to select D. Favors (or D. Cousins). In this fantasy we draft an uber athletic 4 with good defense and huge potential. This is really more of 3 team trade as the finances for the Detroit deal would require the pick to be sign/traded.

-Paul George falls to the Utah pick. 2nd rounders...sold to pay for....

-Waive/buyout Gomes. Renounce all other FA's. Darko does what he says he's going to and returns to Europe.

-Trade Pekovic's rights to San Antonio for Tiago Splitters after arranging a deal where we frontload a contract using our cap room. This could give Splitter enough upfront to cover him for when the lockout hits and would take advantage of his financial concerns over joining the cap locked Spurs. SA nets a big man they might get cheaper and would complement Duncan's aging defense. Maybe we spice the deal up a bit with something else.

-Sign Josh Childress with a portion of our remaining FA money. Additionally, look at a FA big and bringing back Wilkins for the minimum.

Flynn, Sessions, Turner
Turner, Ellington, George
Prince, Childress
Love, Favors
Splitter, Favors, Hollins

Should we consider trading Love?

2010-03-19T18:29:14Z

Willistoncoyote brings up a good point about a possible trade of Love to the Warriors for their pick. What else would we be interested in? I know most of the regulars would rather keep Love and trade Al but if nobody wants Al and someone wants Love, we have to explore that possibility, don't we?

I don't know about financial figures and what not but I would start the discussion as

Love + Charlotte pick + 2 second round picks for Anthony Randolph and GW #1 pick

Maybe, we'd have to take back a bad contract (ie: Magette) to make it work but it would be interesting to have a big SF.

Cashing in the Chips?

2010-03-19T02:16:46Z

I have been on a ski vacation in Salt Lake City the last week, so I appologize for my absence. So, my question is pretty simple this week. Have the Wolves cashed in the chips for this season or are they still playing hard? I have to say that it looked pretty poor against Phoenix and Utah. I will further ask my fellow Wolfie fans that is they answer yes, the Wolves have given up for the season, who in particular is cashing in? Finally, are there any players that are still giving it there all? I will start by saying that Ramon Sessions sure had two horrible games. Especially against the Jazz he made some passes that really stunk, and followed them up by showing zero hustle to get back. I have been on his side all season, but pulling that crap knocks him down a notch or two. So what you all think>\?

All that has Kahn Before

2010-03-18T19:37:03Z

Is David Kahn a good GM? I think the jury is still out but I wanted to take an opportunity to evaluate him on what he has done and look ahead at some unresolved issues.

Bad - Kahn was considered a crony, re-tread hire with little success. This board was upset that a new up and coming stat guy along the lines of Pritchard and Presi wasn't hired. This is more on Glen Taylor than Kahn, but his reputation coming in was not positive.

Good - Kahn traded Foye and Miller for the 5th overall pick. I thought this was good on two fronts. First, it set a tone by getting rid of two starters that did not live up to their expectations and started the 'strip it down to the studs' process that we saw unfold. Second, the Wolves got Rubio. That was lucky, but even before the draft I thought this was great. I believed Griffen and Rubio were 1/2 - and that Harden, Tyreke, and Curry were real quality at 3/4/5. With Hasheem likely to go in the top 4, I thought the Wolves were in a great position to grab two of the 3/4/5 guys.

Good - According to Kahn, he did everything he could to move up and grab Tyreke Evans. I have to admit - he scared the hell out of me. I'm not sure I would have taken him at 6, but if true - Kahn saw a superstar where many others saw a question mark.

Good - Kahn took Rubio at 5. This was probably an easy decision at the time. Rubio was one of the two players in a 'two man draft'. It's hard to say whether or not the following drama was predicted at the time - but nonetheless, this was the right move.

Awful - Taking Flynn with the 6th pick. It was bad then, it is worse now. Applying hindsight it is clear that Flynn is not as good as 5 PG's taken after him - Curry, Jennings, Lawson, Collison and maybe Holiday. But even at the time this pick was terrible. 1) Curry was right there! How do you pass up on a shooter with good PG size? He and Rubio would have made much more sense as a backcourt on offense and defense. This was an OBVIOUS pick, except 2) Flynn's biggest basketball skill was his interview, and Kahn was seduced. "oh, but he's a leader!" Yeah, but his game is ... ordinary. 3) We know 5 PG's are better now. But even then I had him behind Curry, Lawson and Jennings. My fear - this pick does as much damage as the Ray Allen for Steph Marbury trade. Awful.

Bad - Kahn traded the 18th pick - Ty Lawson - for the protected Charlotte pick. I had Lawson in my top 10. Others did too, and time has shown this judgment to be largely correct. My view at the time is that Kahn traded a top-10 talent for a top 12 protected pick next year - or top-10 protected the year after... I asked myself - 'Why are the Wolves delaying gratification for a pick that may not come, may come later in the draft than 18, and may not provide a top-10 talent?" Now full judgment can't be passed until the Charlotte picked is used or traded - and I'll address that later, but this was a dumb move.

Bad - Kahn selling 2nd round pick Nick Calathes. It seems to me that 2nd round picks are an excellent way to cheaply fill out roster spots 11-15, or stash Euros for further evaluation. Calathes could have been either.

Good - Kahn signing Ramon Sessions. Yes, there are a ton of PG's on this team but Sessions was a good deal and should bring back a useful asset or be a super-sub PG.

Good/Bad -Kahn signing Ryan Hollins. At the time I thought it was a good move, but the guy really stinks and is being paid for 2 more seasons. It was the right idea, but wrong player. I'm very forgiving of this move.

Good - Kahn trading Smith, Telfair, et al. This continued the 'strip it down to the studs' movement which I believe was critical to change the culture and start over. The acquisition of larger expiring contracts such as Blount's were potentially more useful near the trade deadline.

Good - Kahn telling Blount to stay away. Set the tone - we won't tolerate lazy head cases.

Good - Kahn hiring Rambis. I liked the move at the time. Good pedigree, coming from Phil Jackson's school of coaching, ran the defense, seemed like a good pick. Maybe if he'd been hired before the draft, the triangle would have demanded taking Curry.... and as time goes by Rambis is doing some questionable things, but we'll address those later. At the time, this was a good move.

Good - Kahn trading for Darko. Not a major move, but a nice one. The team gets a look at a real center and they can butter up the Euros.

Bad - Kahn made no other deadline moves. This was very frustrating. Surely he could have plucked another lottery pick or SOMEthing.

Open questions

How will Kahn resolve the Jefferson/Love death match? He inherited this mess, true. But he does need to resolve it. He is clearly trying to get max value for Jefferson, but the guy has to go. Clearly Love hates playing behind him or with him. So long as this is Al's team, we are doomed as fans.

Is Rambis the right coach? Does the triangle make sense for a PG talent heavy team (depends on future personnel)? Can he teach defense(not without a shot blocker)? Can he keep the players motivated and pursuing their proper roles(so far so good)? Can the man put together a rotation that makes any sense(uhhhh, no)? Can Rambis develop young talent (signs point to yes)? Clearly more time is needed before judging Rambis, but he has lost esteem since his hiring.

-Gomes - stay or go? I vote for cap space!

-3 first round draft picks - who does Kahn take or how does he use these to get significant players.

-Use of cap space - same deal. This off season is critical for Kahn. If he screws it up he should be fired after next season. If he gets it right the Wolves could have a wonderful 20-teens.

-Henk and Pekovic - What will Kahn do with the Euros? Will he get good or any value out of them?

Poll

Is Kahn a good GM?

First overall pick scenario, what would you do?

2010-03-18T15:52:13Z

Ok, this is my first post but I read a lot of the threads and I did not see this covered anywhere. I think with what the Wolves have and what they need I would try to do the following. Draft John Wall, then see if you can deal with the team picking at 2 to get Turner. You them would have a solid future core at point guard, shooting guard, and power forward with Love. If it takes trading the Rubio rights, another one of our picks later in the first round, and maybe moving Jefferson for some dead salary or scrap, I would do it.

Pretend you are Kahn, what do you do?

Unforgivable

2010-03-17T20:24:56Z

So it seems to me as if the Hoopus community is going through another one of those times where everything seems hopeless. Understandable, seeing as they haven't ~~even been in a game~~ won a game for quite some time. But my question is this, apart from the obvious answer, ~~Sasha Pavlovic~~ losing, what is the one thing that has or could happen this season that has been unforgivable? The one thing that if it happens or continues to happen beyond this year, will lose you as a fan?

Is is something that can be controlled by Kahn? Drafting, signings, scouting, etc. Rambis? Lineups, the Triangle, too much/little time for certain players, losing his players, etc. The players? Lack of effort, complaining too much, not complaining enough, not taking responsibility, not showing the desire to improve/succeed, more DUIs, etc. Or something different altogether? No luck in the draft and you're out of here? Something I missed? Let's fill this thread up with the worst thing that you can think of that has or could happen to this franchise. I think we need to get it all out. I'd love anything from a well-thought out reply or a one or two word response saying what it is that is irking you the most. No optimism, that's for another thread. I say we get everything out. Maybe if Kahn has someone reading this site they will catch on to a few things that some of the most important fans that this team still has will no longer tolerate.

I'll start. For me, it's a toss up between f*cked up rotations and lack of effort. But I think when it comes down to it, I would rather see us lose by 20 trotting out strange lineups (as long as Sasha isn't there, please no more Sasha!) than I would see us lose by 1 in a game that we could have won if it seemed like our team gave a crap. So "effort" would be the thing that annoys me the most about this team. And also probably why Corey is far and away my favorite player on this team (and also why I will irrationally defend him when he goes 1-7 from the field, but refused to give up). What is it for you? Let's rip this team apart! At this point, they deserve it. I'll maybe post a thread later this week that is the opposite of this one.

It keeps getting stranger . . .

2010-03-17T15:47:48Z

Tom Penn (every Hoopus reader's favorite GM / POBO candidate) got fired yesterday. . . From TrueHoop (via the Oregonian):

John Canzano of The Oregonian: "The Trail Blazers fired vice president Tom Penn in what goes down as a curious move. Lots of speculation about the reasons, and timing, and Penn told me that he's 'surprised and disappointed' by the firing. Also, he said, 'I suppose people are going to fill the void with whatever story is out there.' He's right about that. Lots of rumor and speculation floating around. And my phone is blowing up with league sources who are all shocked by the development, who are offering all sorts of ideas. Also, they're saying Penn will land on his feet. Blazers company line: 'Philosophical differences.' Remember that for when you next need to say something and nothing at the same time. ... Western conference executive tells me Vulcan headquarters was livid in late summer after they realized Penn played them in getting a raise and promotion out of the phantom Minnesota offer and, 'there's real resentment at Vulcan headquarters at that whole deal.' This source isn't buying the idea that something new happened on Tuesday that caused Penn's firing, rather, that the Vulcans decided long ago they were going to blow up Penn the first time they had cause. What was that cause? 'I'm not guessing on this, there's no speculation here, the resentment over the Minnesota thing is real,' source said. 'The Vulcans can be vindictive %$&#'s" Keep an eye on the movements of Penn agent Warren Legarie (ex-Blazers GM John Nash's agent and KP's agent as well) who was at the center of that situation, and also, has been involved with the Clippers extensively."

So maybe there really was no offer to Penn? Am I supposed to be happy about this? This was all a game by Penn and his agent to get a better deal from the Blazers? Did Papa Glen know this and never would have hired him? Or did we get played too? Would we rather have Penn today?

A bizzare story and one that I'm happy to speculate about rather than wonder how we could give up 152.

Wolves fans NCAA Bracket

2010-03-17T05:32:55Z

I made this for the Wolves RealGM Board, but since there are not a lot of posters there I figured I'd post it here too.:

I created a group on Yahoo for this year's tourney bracket. All you guys are free to join. The more the merrier!

Site: http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1

Group Name: RealGM TWolves Board

Group ID#: 167132

Password to join: arooo

I also signed up for the $1,000,000 prize if any of us make a perfect bracket.

"Assets"

2010-03-16T02:29:04Z

So I figured I would try to give us something (besides the lottery) to be happy about in our current situation. We've lost March so far and that doesn't look to change with our next few opponents (crazier stuff has happened). So basically this season is gone. Development wasn't seen nearly to the extent you would hope in a season like this. Wins were few and far between (Except for that February streak). Lineups were crap. So much to complain about. So let's talk about assets.

Well assets don't really do much good when you don't know how to use them. And it seems more and more each day that we don't know how to use them. Like, we have absolutely no idea what to do. If this was a business, we would be walking back into a bank with our heads down, not looking the loan approval officer in the eye, and asking for our 8th loan (is that too generous?). "But Mr. Loan Officer Sir, we have the assets to back the loans!"

And we do. We have the assets to, in our case, give us hope and a reason to keep cheering. To offer our team another chance. Because maybe, just maybe, this is the time that we don't need another loan.

On to my point, Boston. Let's take a look at where they were and, well, we can probably skip where they got to and where they are. Before the Summer of Garnett/Allen, this is what Boston's assets looked like:

BOSTON:

Expiring contracts

Draft picks: From us and their own... possibly some others coming as well, not too important here though

Young players:

Big Al, Gerald Green, Bassy, Gomes
Rajon Rondo
Kendrick Perkins
Tony Allen and Leon Powe
Delonte West (I'll include Wally here as he is relevant for the Ray Allen trade)

Allstar: Paul Pierce

Not too bad, right? They only won 24 games that year... Without Pierce for a decent amount though. Well, now let's take a look at where we are, keeping in mind that we were without Love for a good amount of time and Brewer and Jefferson were coming off significant injuries.

MINNESOTA:

Expiring contracts: For sure

Draft picks: 3 in the first round and 1 at the start of the second, which are all going to have some decent talent available... Probably more than when Boston was trading (I think the 5th pick this year will be a better prospect than Jeff Green)

Young Players:

Jonny Flynn, Ramon Sessions
Corey Brewer, Wayne Ellington
Kevin Love
Al Jefferson (And I'll give a somewhat similar shout out to Gomes as he is about equally as productive as Wally, if not better because of his contract... and performance... and locker roomness)

Euros:

Rubio
Pekovic
And don't discount our rights to Norel and Alphabet (one-sided trades for ghost contracts)

Allstar: Umm, well... Let's imagine for a second that Turner turns out to be on a level similar to Paul Pierce. Then we move our draft picks down to 2 first rounders.

Conclusion:

Assuming Turner can be a player like Pierce (should immediately be a better defender and rebounder, but worse shooter and worse at getting to the line - at least right away. Passing and TOs should be pretty close), I'd say we have more [perceived] assets than Boston did at that time. We don't have an extra 5th pick in the draft, but I'd say Rubio has more hype than Jeff Green could even have come close to. I don't think anyone expected much from Telfair or Gerald Green at that point. I don't think people expected Gomes to be too much more than an elite-bench player (or average starter) at best. Tony Allen, Delonte West, and Leon Powe were what they were at that point. Direct comparisons though:

Rubio >= 5th pick
Our other picks > Their other picks
Evan Turner <= Paul Pierce
Kevin Love > Kendrick Perkins (by quite a bit at the time and still, in terms of trade value at least)
Gomes = Gomes
Big Al = Big Al (not much upside, but he has proven a LOT more)
Sessions > Wally (cheaper, upside, past production on a better team)
Rondo Allen Powe West = Flynn Brewer Ellington Pekovic? Tough to guage because Rondo's trade value wasn't great at the time, but he turned out to be an allstar. The other three are relative nonfactors. So our four probably has a ton more trade value than theirs had, but possibly less output than Rondo is having (possibly more... who knows how these four will turn out some day).

Soooo.... I'd say we have more trade value on our team than they did. As far as our future v their current output... well I think that really depends. Rondo and Perkins provide a lot and Pierce had a resurgence after his injury year. Plus, their guys might not have developed close to what they are now if not for the trades that took place. Kevin Love's continued development will shape this the most, as well as guys like Brewer, Flynn, Ellington, and our draft picks this year. And Jefferson getting healthy (is that just an excuse now or is this still legit? You decide). I'd say it's certainly a toss up, but I think it's pretty even if not a slight advantage to us (Paul Pierce is tough to replicate though). I'm not saying we will see a turnaround like they did (and even if we did, I don't think we would get the FAs signing with us like they did), I just wanted to point out that we aren't that far off of where they were a few short years ago. I'd invite any disagreement to any of my points as I'm making complete guesses and would love to hear what others think.

Ellington developing nicely

2010-03-15T22:06:42Z

Wayne Ellington has kind of been flying under the radar. But in looking at this stats recently, there seems to be some good news.

According to 82games his defense has been a positive. He actually has the best ON/OFF defensive numbers of any Wolves wing.

Now check out his shooting percentages broken down by month:

Mon   FG%	3P%
Oct   0.313 	0.000
Nov   0.305 	0.261 	
Dec   0.447 	0.267
Jan   0.463  	0.469
Feb   0.475 	0.500
Mar   0.481 	0.545

The guy is on fire right now. Would be interesting to see him move into the starting lineup for a few games to see what he could do vs. the big boys.

Hollinger's NCAA PER

2010-03-15T19:44:10Z

John Hollinger released some advanced stats for college players today. In addition to his usual PER, he also formulated Reb%, Ast%, TO% and usage rates in all games against Division 1 opponents.

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/hollinger/statistics

The most interesting stat though was Player Efficiency Rating.

I had an idea going in that DeMarcus Cousins was going to rate pretty high, seeing as how he puts up 15.3 points and 10.1 rebounds in only 23 minutes per game, so I was unsurprised when he came in #1 in the NCAA with a PER of 35.45 (LeBron James has a PER of 31.79 in the NBA if you need a reference point). Evan Turner came in 5th overall at 31.3, but was 2nd among players from major conferences. John Wall missed the top-100 and came in with a PER of 22.4.

Some other players of interest in the top-100 are below ...

8. Luke Harangody - 29.97
12. James Anderson - 29.63
25. Hassan Whiteside - 28.52
31. Cole Aldrich - 28.01
45. Ed Davis - 26.15
68. Greg Monroe - 25.26
74. Ekpe Udoh - 25.07
79. Derrick Favors - 24.89
91. Al Farouq-Aminu - 24.7
96. Solomon Alabi - 24.35
99. Patrick Patterson - 24.27

Bracket reaction (prospect matchups):

2010-03-14T23:27:15Z

So the brackets just got released, and I see quite a few good match-ups to watch from a prospect standpoint...

Midwest Region:

Round of 32: (good chance) A potential match-up of James Anderson versus Evan Turner. How nice would this be to watch?
Sweet 16: (low chance) Potential match-up of Derrick Favors and Greg Monroe. Would mean that the Yellow Jackets would have to pull off two upsets, but seeing these two guys go against each other would be a treat.
Elite 8: (decent chance) Monroe versus Aldrich. The only reason I'd hope for Evan Turner to lose in the tournament. If Monroe can't go up against Favors, then this would be the next best thing to see where he truly stands.
Elite 8: (decent chance) Evan Turner versus Xavier Henry. Not quite as fun to watch as Anderson and Turner, but still... also get to see how Turner handles driving against a defensive big.

West Region:

Round of 64: (lock) Elias Harris versus Chris Singleton. Should tell us a lot about where Harris stacks up because Singleton is one of the best Forward defenders in the NCAA.
Round of 32: (lock) The winner of that match-up will go up against Wesley Johnson... this group of games will be awesome to judge the SF talent. Either player offers a good barometer for Johnson.
Round of 32: (great chance) A potential Gordon Hayward against Jeff Taylor match-up in the second round. Hayward is a great offensive player and will be a good test for Taylor's defensive skills if they get matched up against one another - which I think they will.
Sweet 16: (decent chance) Wesley Johnson against Jeff Taylor. Taylor will be yet another test for Johnson to see if he can produce against a good defender.

East Region:

Round of 64: (lock) Al-Farouq Aminu versus Damion James. Man, two tough-nosed SF/PF's that are the focal point for their respective teams. This is probably the second best first round game to watch.
Round of 64: (lock) Quincy Pondexter versus Jimmy Butler. Jimmy who? He's a slashing SF who is a solid defender. Nice match-up to watch to gauge Pondexter.
Round of 32: (good chance) Texas against Kentucky. Wall versus Bradley, Patterson versus James, and Cousins versus Pittman all seem like it would make for great television. I really, really hope this happens.
Round of 32: (decent chance) Darington Hobson versus Quincy Pondexter in a potential round two match-up. Two SFs vying for a mid/late first round selection, and each prospect has their avid supporters.
Round of 32: (good chance) Devin Ebanks against Trevor Booker. Ebanks needs a good showing in the tournament if he wants to declare. Booker needs a great showing in the tournament if he wants to be a 1st round pick.
Sweet 16: (good chance) Darington Hobson against Devin Ebanks' defense. I think Hobson would be on Butler defensively, but Ebanks would almost assuredly be asked to guard Hobson for the majority of the game. If Hobson can't produce against him, then I think he's looking at late-first selection, but if he does produce and they win... he could be a late-lottery guy.
Elite 8: (good chance) Kentucky versus West Virginia's defense. Sure, there's not the good man-to-man pairings like with Texas, but as a whole, this would be a wildly entertaining game. Ebanks on Wall would be fun to watch at times.

South Region:

Round of 32: (great chance) Ekpe Udoh against Luke Harangody. While Harangody isn't a great pro prospect, he has the type of college game which is a good test for Udoh's defensive and rebounding abilities.
Elite 8: (decent chance) Ekpe Udoh against Zoubek and Plumlee. Two physical players to see how Udoh handles physical interior play.

Too many Final Four match-ups to list, but I'm hoping to see Ohio State versus Syracuse for Turner versus Johnson, and then Kentucky versus Baylor to see Udoh against both Patterson and Cousins, and then Wall against Tweety Carter. Ohio State versus Kentucky in the Championship game would then be spectacular.

What are the match-ups you guys most look forward to from either a prospect or just a basketball standpoint?