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Offseason Primer: Veteran Free Agent Centers
If you're like me, you think that the Wolves' biggest need is frontcourt help and The Weakerthans are the best band in the history of music. Even if we draft a big man to grow up next to Big Al, Mark Madsen and Chris Richard are the only other guys on the roster who can really log minutes at center. That's not going to cut it.
While the Wolves should absolutely look at prospects and young veterans for help at the 5, this edition just covers the savvy vets. These are the guys who could teach a drafted big man a thing or two and provide some locker room leadership.
Michael Doleac - Doleac was a good character guy all season and gave all he had, but the Wolves need more and should be looking at someone with better defense and more physical play. Good night sweet prince.
Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo - If either plays another season, it'll be with their current teams.
Brian Skinner, Michael Ruffin - While not really centers by height (6'9" each), Skinner and Ruffin are guys with the strength to bang with the big boys. Although not long-term solutions, they could provide some defense and rebounding down low next to Al.
Jamaal Magloire - Magloire has played like crap the last few years. That's how it is. But if he's got any sort of pride left, he'll try to come back and prove himself. He's known as a bit of a ball-hog, but if he comes on the cheap his talent level would be welcome in the Wolves' frontcourt. Then again, if he still sucks and pouts when his minutes dwindle, any investment would be for nought.
Kurt Thomas - This man has come into his own as the prototypical veteran big: he can hit open jumpers, he can guard the best low post opponent, he can bang with the best of them and he's a team player. All that being said, there's no reason for him to sign with a rebuilding team; a championship contender will snatch him up.
Lorenzen Wright - Maybe I should've put him with Zo and Deke... but that list would've been too "one of these things is not like the other."
Not exactly a choice crop is it? That's why the young vets are up next.
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Offseason Primer, Part 1: Mark Your Calendars
As the offseason approaches, Canis Hoopus wants you to be ready to boo or cheer our Timberwolves Front Office as they make decisions that will shape the future of this franchise in flux. Most fans see the offseason as a time to relax and think about things like family, work and vacation. Not Hoopus.
In Part 1 (I suppose it's technically part 2 after my post about how we got to where we are), we'll take a look at the fundamental timeline the Wolves face.
May 20: NBA Lottery. This is the day we find out what order the first 14 teams in the draft will pick. As it sits, the Wolves have the 3rd highest probability of getting #1. Here are the Wolves odds, by pick (hat tip to Ben Schuarmer):
- 13.80%
- 14.24%
- 14.54%
- 23.82%
- 29.05%
- 4.55%
For those of you keeping track, that means we have a 42.58% chance of picking in the top 3. Funny thing about the NBA lottery is that we actually have a better chance of picking 4-6 than we do 1-3. But thems the breaks.
June 26: NBA Draft. Here's where the magic happens. Barring any trades we'll have #1-6, #31 and #34. The thing I love about #31 is that we get the first pick that's not restricted by the first round salary scale. In short, we'll get our pick of the litter to sign to a minimum contract instead of a $2 million guarantee.
While this isn't known as a particularly deep draft, there should be some high quality prospects when the 2nd round rolls around.
June 30: Deadline to exercise options and tender qualifying offers. While the Wolves don't have any options (team, player or early termination) to exercise, we should keep our eyes on what other teams do. If teams or players decide to end a contract, that player becomes a free agent.
The qualifying offer part, though, should interest us a great deal. In order for a player to become a restricted free agent, their team must tender a qualifying offer. The Wolves have 5 players eligible (Telfair, Snyder, Gomes, Smith and Richard). While McHale has inferred that Gomes will definitely get a qualifying offer, everyone else is less clear.
The way they work, however, makes not tendering an offer seem illogical. After the qualifying offer is tendered, the team retains the right to match an offer to a restricted free agent. If no offer is made to the player, the qualifying offer becomes a one-year contract and the player becomes an unrestricted free agent the next year. The qualifying offers seem pretty reasonable as one-year contracts in a "worst-case" scenario (it's worth noting that some of my figures differ with other sources , but not by too much):
- Telfair: $3,543,834
- Snyder: $3,313,598
- Gomes: $1,001,269
- Smith: $972,581
- Richard: $886,517
July 1: Salary cap year begins, July moratorium begins, raises take effect, free agents become free. As you can see, this is the big date. The July moratorium is simply the period between the start of the free agent period and the first date contracts can be signed.
July 8: July moratorium ends, free agent contracts can be signed, salary cap adjusts, contracts can be extended, free agents and draft picks can be renounced. As mentioned previously, this is when free agents can be signed.
It's worth noting that players become eligible for extensions. With rookie scale contracts this typically happens the year before they become a restricted free agent (as happened with Big Al). Rashad McCants is the only Wolves player that currently fits this bill.
Also, this is the first date that Michael Doleac's free agent rights can be renounced in order to recoup cap space. That sounds great, but the reality is that doing so would not get the Wolves under the cap enough to make a splash in the market.
October 31: Last day to exercise option years on scale contracts, last day contracts can be extended. The Wolves don't have any contacts to extend as of now.
Stay tuned True Blue-ievers. (trademarked)
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How The Wolves Were Built
As we enter the offseason and talk endlessly about what moves McHale and Co. should be making, I thought it might be helpful to run down how we got where we are:
- Corey Brewer - Drafted #7 in 2007
- Greg Buckner - Acquired via trade from Dallas for Trenton Hassell (9/28/07)
- Michael Doleac - Acquired via trade with Walker, Wayne Simien and a 1st round pick from Miami for Mark Blount and Ricky Davis (10/24/07)
- Randy Foye - Acquired via trade with cash for Brandon Roy on Draft Day 2006 (Foye was picked #7, Roy was picked #6)
- Ryan Gomes - Acquired via trade with Jefferson, Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and 2 1st round draft picks from Boston for Kevin Garnett (7/31/07)
- Marko Jaric - Acquired via trade with Mario Chalmers from LA Clippers for Sam Cassell and 1st round pick (8/12/05)
- Al Jefferson - Acquired via trade with Telfair, Gomes, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and 2 1st round draft picks from Boston for Kevin Garnett (7/31/07)
- Mark Madsen - Signed as a free agent from LA Lakers (7/28/03)
- Rashad McCants - Drafted #14 in 2005
- Chris Richard - Drafted #41 in 2007
- Craig Smith - Drafted #36 in 2006
- Kirk Snyder - Acquired via trade with a 2nd round pick and cash from Houston for Gerald Green (2/21/08)
- Sebastian Telfair - Acquired via trade with Jefferson, Gomes, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and 2 1st round draft picks from Boston for Kevin Garnett (7/31/07)
- Antoine Walker - Acquired via trade with Doleac, Wayne Simien and a 1st round pick from Miami for Mark Blount and Ricky Davis (10/24/07)
So there you have it; technically it's 9 players acquired by trade (including Jaric and Foye), 4 via the draft and 1 from free agency. Moving Jaric and Foye to free agency and draft respectively yields 7, 5 and 2.
Whether you think we're in the best or worst shape in franchise history personnel-wise, I think it's a good thing that we haven't relied on free agency very heavily. Part of the reason is being cash strapped for so long, but given McHale's free agent choices (Mike James and Michael Olowokandi are the only ones of "note" in quite some time) that's probably a good thing.
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The Italian Option
Seeing that the Wolves have already thrown the door open to $1/game season ticket gimmicks, here's my contribution to the Let's Build the Blueprint (Insert Next Year's Marketing Slogan Here) extravaganza: the Italian Option. It only works if the Wolves pick 2nd 3rd-6th or lower. With no further delay, here it goes:
- Draft Danilo Gallinari.
- Trade $2.8 mil trade exception and one 2nd round pick to the Warriors for Marco Belinelli.
- Trade Rashad McCants, Marko Jaric + other 2nd rounder + Heat or Celtic 1st rounder to Toronto for Andrea Bargnani, Kris Humphries (honorary Italian), and the Raptors' 2008 1st rounder (currently 17th).
- Draft best available from list of honorary Italians (in order): CDR, Chase Budinger, or Joe Alexander.
- Re-sign Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, and Chris Richard.
Next year's Italian Option lineup:
- Foye/Bassy
- (CDR/Budinger/Alexander)/Belinelli/Brewer
- Gallinari/Gomes/Brewer
- Jefferson/Humphries
- Bargnani/Richard
NOTE: I have conflicting sources for Humphries' 2008 salary availability. If he does not have a contract, substitute a sign-and-trade option or Joey Graham to keep the Italian Option in order.
Since the Wolves had trouble getting over 2,000 fans to watch their home games, they need to find new markets to sell their goods. Why not Italy? After all, when you're selling tickets that are cheaper than Apple Valley Eagle H.S. home games, something is amiss. The Wolves would be Italy's favorite NBA team. Ami i lupi!!!
Actually, I'd be more than happy with the Italian Option lineup. It has size and shooting: 2 things the current squad can't seem to put together.
Finally, the Italian Option fits one of the off-season's most important criteria: it's not hard on Glen's wallet. Entering the 2008-09 season the Italian Option would cost the Wolves roughly $62.1 million over 14 contracts (including draft picks). 47% of that amount would be locked up in buyouts and players who don't play (Walker, Buckner, Madsen). At the beginning of the 2009-10 season the Italian Option would cost the Wolves $49.7 million over 13 contracts (not counting the Wolves' top pick which may or may not end up in LA). 27% of this amount would be dedicated to buyouts and players who don't play.
PS: Since we're on the subject of Italian basketball, why not grab former Tar Heel Kris Lang? He played in the premier Italian league last year. Could he be any less effective than Chris Richard? Come on!!! Viva the Italian Option!!!
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