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Guess the Player!!!


Here you go.  Answers are below the fold.

pts/40 efg %3p ppr pts/poss reb% oreb% per tmortg ortg diff %poss FTrate ht WS SR MV Ag
#1 21.9 58 .45 -0.57 1.24 1.24 6.0 25 116.8 119.1 +2.3 24.3 33.7 6'4" 6'10.75" 8'7.5" 34.5 10.39
#2 19.4 49 .46 -0.44 1.15 15.9 11.8 26.1 111.6 113.6 +2.0 29.5 31.3 6'3.25" 6'6.25" 8'1" 38 10.53
#3 22.5 52 .40 -3.71 1.10 13.6 11.5 22.3 104.3 105.2 +0.9 30.8 28.4 6'4.25" 6'6" 8'3.5" 41 11.04

ht = height w/o shoes

ws = wing span

sr = standing reach

mv = max vert

ag = agility

Player 1: Rashad McCants' junior season (20 years old).

Player 2: Randy Foye's senior season (22 years old).

Player 3: OJ Mayo's freshman season (20 years old).

I recently took part in TWolvesBlog's Blogprint for the Future pt 3.  In it I was asked about my take on who the Wolves should draft.  Here's a little snippet: 

One of the most common schools of thought with Wovles fans in regards to Mayo is that he is the 1b star that is needed to pair with Big Al in order to take the Wolves to the next level.  In other words: He's the scoring mate that KG never had.  Unfortunately, this hopeful thought simply doesn't match up with Mayo's track record or his style of play.  Go take a look at Randy Foye's senior season.  Now take a look at Mayo's freshman campaign.  Take a look at their height, reach, size, and strength.  Take a look at how each player relied on the 3 ball.  Take a look at how each player was a volume shooter.  It's pretty hard to think of a player in this draft that duplicates what Randy Foye already brings to the table more than OJ Mayo. 
Not only is OJ Mayo hopelessly similar to Randy Foye (actually, his last college year wasn't as good as Foye's), he's a bit too close to comfort to the Wolves' 2005 Draft pick, Mr. McCants.  While OJ Mayo is definitely a solid NBA prospect, from efficiency rates to measurements to raw numbers, he comes out as being equal to or not quite up to Foye/McCants levels of success at the college level. 

Once you start throwing Corey Brewer into the draft mix, if the Wolves take Mayo, Kevin McHale will have officially cemented his status as the Matt Millen of the NBA, as he will have taken 4 shooting guards in the past 4 drafts (compared to Mr. Millen's affinity for a single position: wide receivers).  If for no other reason, the Wolves simply cannot afford to continue to pour as many resources into a single position as they have in the backcourt.  Whether Mayo is the BPA or not (and I'd strongly argue that he is not), they have already doubled down on the backcourt and it's time to draft someone 6'7" or above for a change. 

Outside of a simple superficial statement, how is OJ Mayo different than Foye and/or McCants?  How is he an upgrade?  What evidence is there that he can provide more value to the team at 3 than Foye did at 7 (6)?  How can you say that he'll provide an upgrade at the lead guard? 

I simply don't see how the Wolves can get away with drafting a 5-10% variation of exactly the same player for 3 out of the last 4 years, especially with Jaric and Brewer in the backcourt.  You do have to give Mr. Mayo credit: no other player seems to be able to maintain this level of buzz while putting up numbers that do not place him in the same rarefied air as the hype.

PS: Just to be clear and consistent, I think Mayo is on the same level as Derrick Rose, who I also think would be a mistake pick for the Wolves.  Beasley, Love, or Alexander.  They have to walk away with one of those players.  They also need to walk away with either CDR/Rush or Hardin/Ajinca (or one of each) by moving picks and players.  Finally, after some additional thought, I'm adjusting my ultimate hopeful lineup to one of the following.  This is the final take before the draft:

Very ideal:
  1. Foye/Jaric
  2. (CDR/Rush)/Brewer
  3. Beasley/Gomes
  4. Jefferson/Richard
  5. (Hardin/Ajinca)/Richard

  1. Foye/Jaric
  2. (CDR/Rush)/Brewer
  3. (Love/Alexander)/Gomes
  4. Jefferson/Richard
  5. (Hardin/Ajinca)/Richard


BTW: after a lot of thought about the type of player OJ Mayo could end up as, I came to the conclusion that his top end probably lies somewhere between Jim Jackson and this guy:


In fact, I think Mayo is more Stevie Franchise than any other player I can think of.  He's the ultimate low PPR lead guard who will carry a low-to-mid 40s shooting percentage while still putting up 20 points and relying heavily on jump shots.  Nice player? In his prime, yes.  Superstar?  Sorry Stevie.