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Mid-season draft board, pt iii: the swingmen and wrapping things up


OK, time for part iii of our run through the top college prospects in the land.  You can read part i (guards) and part ii (bigs) here and here.  With no further delay, here are the top swingmen in the land with their Hoopus scores:

  1. Evan Turner (18.32)
  2. Kyle Singler (17.745)
  3. Chase Budinger (15.527)
  4. DeJuan Summers (15.235)
  5. Tyler Smith (15.205)
  6. Danny Green (14.376)
  7. Earl Clark (13.95)

All in all this is a pretty underwhelming group of swingmen.  Turner and Singler are the only players worth thinking about in the 7-10 range that the Wolves will likely end up picking in.  (Ed. note: This post was written before Big Al went down for the season.) Turner is one of those guys who just seems to have his game together.  I'm not sure if he'll come out this year, but if he does, he has all the makings of a solid pro. 

Singler is a Dukie.  Long time readers of this site know that I would sooner have the Wolves select an inanimate object than a Dukie.  The rest of the swingmen are fairly average players with decent parts to their game to go along with big, glaring, bright red flags. 

Let's throw this thing wide open and look at the top rated players throughout all three groupings:

  1. Blake Griffin (26.827)
  2. Tyler Hansbrough (23.629)
  3. DeJuan Blair (23.405)
  4. Hasheem Thabeet (21.633)
  5. Ty Lawson (19.943)
  6. Jordan Hill (19.638)
  7. James Harden (19.4)
  8. Stephen Curry (19.123)
  9. Evan Turner (18.32)
  10. Jeff Teague (18.26)
  11. Greg Monroe (17.88)
  12. Nick Calathes (17.877)
  13. Jerome Jordan (17.766)
  14. Kyle Singler (17.745)
  15. Lee Cummard (16.88)

A few things:

  • As mentioned in pt.i, I'd like to get these numbers down to a 20 point scale.  We'll see what happens but I'll run them once again at the end of the college season and I'll compare them to players in last year's draft. 
  • These numbers are not meant to give a 1-15 rundown of the 1st 15 picks in this year's draft.  I am in no way, shape or form suggesting that Tyler Hansbrough be selected with the #2 pick in the draft.  What I am suggesting is that his college numbers indicate that he will be a fairly solid pro and that whoever selects him late in the 1st will be getting themselves a wonderful value pick.  The Hoopus Score is simply meant to give our readers an additional tool with which to view college players who may choose to enter the 09 Draft.  Think of it as an IR filter.  You can watch college games and see what you can see within the spectrum of visible light while stats let you view things that may escape the naked eye.  Stats must be supplemented with solid scouting, personnel interviews, coaching interviews, and other assorted front office footwork (this is the Shaddy/Foye Death Match lesson).  Since we here at Hoopus do not have access to these sorts of things, and since we do not have the time to watch a ton of college ball, this is how we approach the draft. 
  • We value your input.  We posted a quality control revisit of our 08 Draft Board here.  Are we missing anyone?  Are we overlooking anybody? 

Putting everything all together, let's take a look at our pre-stats draft board (with inserted Hoopus Scores):

  1. James Harden (19.4)
  2. Blake Griffin (26.822)
  3. Jrue Holiday (11.180)
  4. Evan Turner (18.32)
  5. Hasheem Thabeet (21.633)

The Next 5: Danny Green (14.376), Earl Clark (13.95), Cole Aldrich (21.319), Stephen Curry (19.123), Ty Lawson (19.943)

Dark Horses: Nick Calathes (17.877), Ty Hansbrough (23.629), Ty Smith (15.205), Jarvis Varnado (20.242), Kyle Singler (17.745), Chase Budinger (15.527), Willie Warren (11.9)

Internationals: Ricky Rubio, Brandon Jennings, Victor Claver

Right away you may notice the 2 bolded American college players: Aldrich and Varnado.  I left them off the main board because I don't think they'll come out this year.  If they do, they will definitely deserve some attention.  Varnado is especially interesting.  His score is built on the backs of rebounding and shot blocking, which is especially interesting because I weigh each blocked shot by .5.  He's very underdeveloped offensively and physically, but he has an absolutely uncanny ability to time his leap to block shots and get rebounds.  It's really something else to watch.

Some of the names I had on my pre-stats list are going to have to come off: Danny Green, Earl Clark and Jrue Holiday don't belong in the top 5 or the next 5.  Blake Griffin clearly, clearly, clearly deserves the top spot.  Here is how I would break down the top 5 taking into consideration non-statistical issues/needs:

  1. Blake Griffin
  2. James Harden
  3. Stephen Curry
  4. Ty Lawson
  5. Hasheem Thabeet

The next 5: Jordan Hill, Evan Turner, Jeff Teague, Greg Monroe, Kyle Singler

Dark horses: Tyler Hansbrough, DeJuan Blair, Nick Calathes, Jerome Jordan, Lee Cummard

Internationals: Ricky Rubio, Brandon Jennings, Victor Claver

Well, that about wraps it up.  I'll post an updated version of this series after the college tourney wraps up and I'll compare the numbers to last year's picks.  Until then, happy speculating and let us know what you think of the list.