One of the reasons why it's so tough to get a handle on this club is because there are just so many unknowns. Let's start walking things away from the unknown towards the known. The first step in this process is to figure out what we know we don't know about the squad and file our findings away under "Questions To Be Answered At A Later Date".
Do personnel upgrades equal increased production?It's not exactly a big leap to say that this year's roster has a greater collection of talent compared to last year's squad. That being said, the upgrades themselves exist in
1- Luke Ridnour's 2009/10 campaign is something of an outlier.
Season | Age | Tm | Lg | G | MP | PER | TS% | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003-04 | 22 | SEA | NBA | 69 | 1114 | 13.1 | .496 | .453 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 23.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 101 | 109 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.051 |
2004-05 | 23 | SEA | NBA | 82 | 2571 | 14.6 | .504 | .450 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 30.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 15.4 | 17.4 | 112 | 111 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 0.100 |
2005-06 | 24 | SEA | NBA | 79 | 2625 | 16.0 | .506 | .445 | 2.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 32.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 15.3 | 18.1 | 112 | 115 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.081 |
2006-07 | 25 | SEA | NBA | 71 | 2091 | 13.7 | .509 | .468 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 28.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 16.9 | 20.0 | 103 | 112 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.052 |
2007-08 | 26 | SEA | NBA | 61 | 1223 | 11.3 | .482 | .428 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 29.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 16.4 | 17.3 | 101 | 112 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.035 |
2008-09 | 27 | MIL | NBA | 72 | 2033 | 12.9 | .500 | .447 | 1.8 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 28.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 15.7 | 18.0 | 105 | 108 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.081 |
2009-10 | 28 | MIL | NBA | 82 | 1759 | 17.7 | .570 | .528 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 31.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 12.4 | 22.0 | 116 | 106 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 0.168 |
Career | 516 | 13416 | 14.5 | .512 | .463 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 29.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 15.5 | 18.8 | 108 | 111 | 16.5 | 7.1 | 23.7 | 0.085 |
Career highs in PER, TS, Ortg, and WS/48. If he can reproduce his 09/10 numbers in an offense with boatloads of new players, awesome. However, are the Wolves more likely to get Ridnour's career averages or his high-end performance of last season? If they are looking at his career averages, will his minutes really be that much of an upgrade over what, say, Jonny Flynn produced in 09/10? Can Ridnour produce at last year's level? This is our first known unknown.
2- Can Mike Beasley produce at the 3?
B-Easy didn't exactly get a lot of run at the small forward down on South Beach, but the small sample size returns are not all that encouraging:
Net 48-Minute Production by Position
-82.3 | -0.750 | +0.0 | +0% | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -123.4 | -50.0 | |
+6.1 | -0.010 | -1.1 | -11% | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.5 | +0.7 | +5.0 | -0.4 | |
+13.0 | -0.422 | +5.9 | -49% | +0.0 | +1.2 | +2.4 | -1.2 | -3.5 | +8.2 | +0.6 |
Player Floor Time Stats by Position
0%
-6
0.0
205.7
-205.7
0
1
49%
+21
97.1
96.5
0.5
36
40
1%
-10
88.3
98.9
-10.6
5
9
(via 82Games)
09/10:
Net 48-Minute Production by Position
3.6
-.101
-.9
4%
2.4
.6
-.9
.0
.7
-1.6
-3.9
5.4
-.003
.2
-13%
-.4
-1.0
.0
-.1
-.9
5.6
1.6
.0
.000
.0
0%
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Player Floor Time Stats by Position
8%
-99
80.4
95.0
-14.6
11
25
50%
+108
98.1
95.5
2.6
40
36
0%
0
.0
.0
.0
He was virtually non-existent at the small forward position in his first season. Only 8% of his 09/10 minutes were at the 3 during his final season in a Heat uniform.
Again, the point here isn't that a positive can't happen; rather, that there isn't a whole lot in this particular player's record to suggest that it is possible. Can Mike Beasley produce at a winning level while playing significant minutes at the small forward? Building on this question, can the
3- Can Martell Webster and Wes Johnson play the 2 and create off the dribble?
I know a lot is made of the quasi-Triangle that the
Player Floor Time Stats by Position
1% | +1 | 93.6 | 91.6 | 1.9 | 6 | 7 | ||
46% | +51 | 94.7 | 93.4 | 1.4 | 42 | 39 | ||
2% | +57 | 126.8 | 103.4 | 23.5 | 16 | 8 | ||
Player Floor Time Stats by Position
4% | +11 | 98.8 | 95.7 | 3.1 | 10 | 8 | ||
48% | -101 | 93.2 | 95.7 | -2.5 | 34 | 38 | ||
0% | +3 | 118.3 | 108.9 | 9.5 | 4 | 3 | ||
Hooray small sample size theater! Again, it's not that Martell Webster can't play at the 2; it's simply that we don't know if he has the skills to do so and it should not be assumed that he is an upgrade over, say, Wayne Ellington. He certainly looks the part, but his ability to play the two (along with his wing partner Wes Johnson, who doesn't have a pro record at all) is our third known unknown.
4- How will Nikola Pekovic adjust to the
I don't have any stats to back this one up, but the transition to the
Will the known unknowns work out in favor of Our Beloved Puppies? We'll have to wait and see. In terms of past performance for all of these questions, there simply isn't a whole lot of info to suggest an outcome one way or another.