The most annoying thing about building this metric, has been constantly changing my opinion on players as I fix bugs in the code and/or add more information into the model. It is always embarrassing to present a new reality every few weeks, but I am pretty happy with where I am not. There were a number of issues with my play-by-play data parser which means any of my past PA100 numbers came from a really flawed data-set. I managed to fix that , so now my numbers match up perfectly with websites like Hoop Data.
Since Timberwolves fans are constantly asking the question, "which wings should we target in free agency," I figured I would through up a list of how PA 100 describes the current landscape on NBA wings:
This should be pretty self-explanatory. PA100.off is how many points the player adds above the average player at his position. PA100.def is how many points that player's opposing counterpart adds (and adjusting credit for steals, blocks, and technical fouls). PA100.dif is PA100.off - PA100.def. PA.diff is the total point difference that player has made for his team throughout the season. This list is ordered by PA.dif, so the top is guys who play a lot of minutes, and play them well, the bottom is guys who play a lot of minutes and do a terrible job of it, and the middle is a mix of mediocrities (i.e. upgrades to a TWolf fan) and guys who barely played.
Concerns about the defensive metric are warranted. When you see a surprising PA100.def result, feel free to consider how cross-matching, or help-defense from bigs may have impacted that score. However, remember that these are derived from the "factual" results of how a player's positional counterpart played while he was on the court, so denial does require some explanation.
NAME | TM | POS | POSS | PA.diff | PA100.dif | PA100.off | PA100.def |
James, LeBron | MIA | 3.26 | 4039 | 428.37 | 10.76 | 12.28 | 1.51 |
Durant, Kevin | OKC | 3.22 | 4352 | 272.12 | 6.41 | 7.57 | 1.16 |
Wade, Dwyane | MIA | 1.93 | 2925 | 257.74 | 9.17 | 8.16 | -1.01 |
Bryant, Kobe | LAL | 2.01 | 3728 | 239.13 | 6.77 | 6.2 | -0.57 |
Harden, James | OKC | 2.45 | 3392 | 178.82 | 5.63 | 7.14 | 1.51 |
Anthony, Carmelo | NYK | 3.23 | 2996 | 178.27 | 6.11 | 7.24 | 1.14 |
Williams, Louis | PHI | 1.49 | 2659 | 155.79 | 6.87 | 3.98 | -2.89 |
Iguodala, Andre | PHI | 3.06 | 3553 | 131.35 | 3.85 | 2.61 | -1.24 |
Stuckey, Rodney | DET | 1.73 | 2464 | 124.57 | 5.41 | 6.62 | 1.2 |
Allen, Tony | MEM | 2.19 | 2675 | 104.8 | 4.28 | 0.53 | -3.75 |
Dudley, Jared | PHX | 3.01 | 3439 | 93.84 | 2.88 | 1.81 | -1.07 |
Granger, Danny | IND | 3.04 | 3611 | 93.26 | 2.74 | 2.07 | -0.66 |
George, Paul | IND | 2.26 | 3338 | 77.39 | 2.68 | 0.11 | -2.56 |
Hill, George | IND | 1.47 | 2059 | 77.1 | 4.76 | -0.27 | -5.03 |
Gallinari, Danilo | DEN | 3.25 | 2207 | 74.2 | 3.52 | 2.77 | -0.75 |
Martin, Kevin | HOU | 2.25 | 2351 | 72.96 | 3.46 | 2.24 | -1.22 |
Ginobili, Manu | SAS | 2.01 | 1230 | 71.01 | 6.13 | 9.29 | 3.16 |
Matthews, Wes | POR | 2.22 | 3362 | 66.36 | 2.33 | -0.03 | -2.36 |
West, Delonte | DAL | 1.86 | 1722 | 59.05 | 3.79 | 1.68 | -2.11 |
Leonard, Kawhi | SAS | 2.86 | 2382 | 56.39 | 2.52 | 1.3 | -1.22 |
Batum, Nicolas | POR | 2.94 | 2843 | 55.08 | 2.09 | 1.17 | -0.92 |
Rush, Brandon | GSW | 2.26 | 2844 | 50.44 | 2.13 | -0.74 | -2.87 |
Johnson, Joe | ATL | 2.32 | 2749 | 45.18 | 2 | 1.85 | -0.15 |
Brown, Derrick | CHA | 3.03 | 2104 | 44.74 | 2.28 | 1.61 | -0.67 |
Carter, Vince | DAL | 2.55 | 2691 | 44.02 | 1.79 | -0.09 | -1.88 |
Johnson, James | TOR | 3.36 | 1791 | 42.8 | 2.55 | -0.15 | -2.69 |
Williams, Marvin | ATL | 3.11 | 1876 | 39.58 | 2.27 | 0.87 | -1.4 |
Pierce, Paul | BOS | 3.15 | 3523 | 39.4 | 1.27 | 3.03 | 1.75 |
Gay, Rudy | MEM | 3.18 | 4287 | 38.64 | 1.06 | 1.39 | 0.33 |
Butler, Jimmy | CHI | 3.08 | 527 | 32.78 | 6.38 | 3.43 | -2.94 |
Lee, Courtney | HOU | 2.09 | 2697 | 30.59 | 1.49 | -1.64 | -3.13 |
Allen, Ray | BOS | 2.04 | 2846 | 29.98 | 1.41 | -0.69 | -2.1 |
Brooks, Marshon | NJN | 2.84 | 1189 | 29.97 | 2.68 | 3.33 | 0.66 |
Hayward, Gordon | UTA | 2.68 | 3274 | 28.94 | 1.04 | 1.28 | 0.25 |
Korver, Kyle | CHI | 2.45 | 2381 | 27.4 | 1.51 | -0.12 | -1.63 |
Deng, Luol | CHI | 3.04 | 3580 | 27.24 | 0.92 | 0.08 | -0.84 |
Gordon, Eric | NOH | 2.1 | 439 | 26.87 | 6.48 | 5.47 | -1.01 |
Wafer, Von | ORL | 2.56 | 676 | 26.74 | 4.11 | 0.3 | -3.81 |
Dunleavy, Mike | MIL | 2.75 | 2245 | 25.29 | 1.28 | 2.07 | 0.79 |
Barnes, Matt | LAL | 2.85 | 2278 | 23.48 | 1.19 | 0.88 | -0.3 |
World Peace, Metta | LAL | 2.99 | 2721 | 23.02 | 1 | -2.05 | -3.05 |
Henderson, Gerald | CHA | 2.13 | 2591 | 20.27 | 1.14 | 0.21 | -0.93 |
McGrady, Tracy | ATL | 3.04 | 1121 | 17.06 | 1.68 | 1.25 | -0.43 |
Sefolosha, Thabo | OKC | 2.22 | 1403 | 14.96 | 1.42 | -1.94 | -3.37 |
Wallace, Gerald | NJN | 3.44 | 276 | 14.53 | 5.42 | 1.49 | -3.93 |
Anderson, Alan | TOR | 2.65 | 264 | 11.01 | 4.33 | 0.51 | -3.81 |
Ebanks, Devin | LAL | 3.11 | 525 | 10.12 | 2.08 | -1.65 | -3.73 |
Evans, Tyreke | SAC | 2.37 | 3791 | 9.6 | 0.61 | 1.78 | 1.17 |
Stackhouse, Jerry | ATL | 2.52 | 417 | 9.54 | 2.44 | -4.57 | -7.01 |
Jefferson, Richard | GSW | 3.38 | 781 | 9.52 | 1.37 | 0.55 | -0.82 |
Webster, Martell | MIN | 2.69 | 2006 | 9.27 | 0.62 | -1.21 | -1.82 |
Green, Gerald | NJN | 2.64 | 398 | 9.1 | 2.44 | -2.24 | -4.69 |
Forbes, Gary | TOR | 2.66 | 496 | 8.99 | 1.97 | 1.91 | -0.05 |
Wallace, Gerald | POR | 3.4 | 2608 | 8.79 | 0.49 | 0.85 | 0.36 |
Gee, Alonzo | CLE | 2.89 | 2890 | 8.38 | 0.45 | 0.32 | -0.12 |
Thomas, Lance | NOH | 3.42 | 813 | 7.45 | 1.07 | -0.51 | -1.58 |
Beasley, Michael | MIN | 3.05 | 1934 | 7.3 | 0.53 | -0.7 | -1.24 |
Terry, Jason | DAL | 1.71 | 3501 | 6.52 | 0.54 | 1 | 0.45 |
Afflalo, Arron | DEN | 2.27 | 3499 | 4.66 | 0.49 | 1.07 | 0.58 |
Leslie, Travis | LAC | 2.09 | 90 | 4.28 | 5.12 | 4.27 | -0.85 |
Stevenson, DeShawn | NJN | 2.04 | 593 | 3.73 | 0.99 | -6.27 | -7.25 |
Johnson, Trey | NOH | 2.37 | 115 | 2.08 | 2.16 | 2.04 | -0.12 |
Harris, Manny | CLE | 2.01 | 400 | 1.9 | 0.83 | -1.93 | -2.77 |
Ubiles, Edwin | WAS | 3.02 | 62 | 1.89 | 3.21 | -8.86 | -12.07 |
Carroll, DeMarre | DEN | 3.07 | 45 | 1.58 | 3.66 | 10.28 | 6.63 |
Walton, Luke | LAL | 3.16 | 120 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 0.13 | -1.2 |
Ahearn, Blake | UTA | 2 | 20 | 1.32 | 6.94 | -0.93 | -7.87 |
Green, Danny | SAS | 2.23 | 2432 | 0.99 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Moore, E'Twaun | BOS | 1.61 | 402 | 0.86 | 0.57 | -4.16 | -4.73 |
Liggins, DeAndre | ORL | 2.35 | 144 | -0.39 | 0.08 | -3.29 | -3.37 |
Williams, Elliot | POR | 1.55 | 255 | -1.16 | -0.1 | -2 | -1.91 |
Emmett, Andre | NJN | 2 | 47 | -1.23 | -2.26 | -3.48 | -1.22 |
Kapono, Jason | LAL | 2.38 | 483 | -1.79 | -0.01 | -5.56 | -5.54 |
Thompson, Mychel | CLE | 2.36 | 171 | -2.14 | -0.89 | -9.12 | -8.22 |
Moon, Jamario | CHA | 3 | 45 | -2.33 | -5.03 | -11.58 | -6.55 |
Meeks, Jodie | PHI | 2.03 | 2442 | -2.69 | 0.25 | -3.5 | -3.74 |
Harris, Tobias | MIL | 3.18 | 740 | -3.29 | -0.29 | 0.95 | 1.24 |
Young, Sam | PHI | 3.2 | 65 | -3.75 | -5.61 | 0.68 | 6.3 |
Green, Willie | ATL | 2.04 | 1207 | -4 | 0.03 | -1.39 | -1.42 |
Williams, Terrence | SAC | 2.86 | 497 | -4.62 | -0.77 | 1.91 | 2.68 |
Thornton, Marcus | SAC | 1.67 | 3406 | -5.53 | 0.2 | 0.54 | 0.34 |
Ellington, Wayne | MIN | 2.09 | 1735 | -6.06 | 0.01 | -3.55 | -3.55 |
Henry, Xavier | NOH | 2.4 | 1177 | -6.08 | -0.16 | -2.23 | -2.07 |
Billups, Chauncey | LAC | 1.91 | 1135 | -6.32 | -0.2 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
Hamilton, Jordan | DEN | 2.99 | 441 | -6.35 | -1.28 | -2.6 | -1.31 |
James, Damion | NJN | 3.07 | 309 | -6.71 | -2.02 | -5.49 | -3.47 |
Honeycutt, Tyler | SAC | 2.92 | 116 | -6.89 | -5.79 | -4.56 | 1.23 |
Young, Nick | LAC | 2.57 | 778 | -7.09 | -0.76 | -2.28 | -1.52 |
Jackson, Stephen | SAS | 3.2 | 548 | -8.31 | -1.36 | -1.38 | -0.02 |
Williams, Terrence | HOU | 2.78 | 317 | -8.33 | -2.47 | -3.55 | -1.08 |
Stone, Julyan | DEN | 1.82 | 305 | -8.92 | -2.57 | 2.81 | 5.38 |
Hill, Grant | PHX | 2.26 | 2596 | -10.06 | -0.03 | -1.96 | -1.93 |
Jones, Dominique | DAL | 1.91 | 445 | -10.29 | -1.96 | 0.28 | 2.24 |
Chandler, Wilson | DEN | 3.17 | 357 | -10.65 | -2.83 | -3.58 | -0.75 |
Walton, Luke | CLE | 3.16 | 360 | -10.8 | -2.85 | -5.9 | -3.05 |
Summers, DaJuan | NOH | 3.05 | 367 | -10.98 | -2.84 | -2.05 | 0.78 |
Eyenga, Christian | CLE | 2.28 | 148 | -11.07 | -7.12 | -7.94 | -0.81 |
Young, Sam | MEM | 2.84 | 473 | -11.17 | -2.21 | -2.94 | -0.73 |
Martin, Cartier | WAS | 3.08 | 266 | -11.46 | -4.15 | -1.05 | 3.11 |
Williams, Mo | LAC | 1.69 | 2289 | -12.17 | -0.17 | 1.61 | 1.79 |
Carroll, DeMarre | UTA | 3.02 | 334 | -12.24 | -3.51 | 0.92 | 4.42 |
Marion, Shawn | DAL | 3.09 | 3331 | -12.84 | -0.23 | -0.61 | -0.38 |
Derozan, DeMar | TOR | 2.25 | 2735 | -13.46 | -0.13 | -1.24 | -1.11 |
Barbosa, Leandro | IND | 2.02 | 628 | -13.7 | -1.82 | -2.86 | -1.03 |
Nocioni, Andres | PHI | 3.13 | 105 | -14.36 | -13.52 | -11.23 | 2.29 |
Gordon, Ben | DET | 2.07 | 2111 | -14.61 | -0.33 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
Aminu, Al-Farouq | NOH | 3.31 | 2240 | -15.77 | -0.55 | -1.49 | -0.94 |
Kleiza, Linas | TOR | 3.31 | 1137 | -16.34 | -1.28 | -2.44 | -1.16 |
Jefferson, Richard | SAS | 3.17 | 2148 | -16.92 | -0.63 | -1.88 | -1.25 |
Pondexter, Quincy | MEM | 2.8 | 1732 | -17.33 | -0.85 | -1.66 | -0.81 |
Hamilton, Richard | CHI | 2 | 943 | -18.05 | -1.56 | -2.58 | -1.02 |
Young, Nick | WAS | 2.35 | 2322 | -18.35 | -0.43 | -1.05 | -0.62 |
Hobson, Darington | MIL | 2 | 72 | -18.75 | -25.69 | -12.9 | 12.79 |
Ellis, Monta | GSW | 1.73 | 2499 | -20.21 | -0.45 | 2.72 | 3.18 |
Williams, Reggie | CHA | 2.2 | 1242 | -20.35 | -1.28 | -2 | -0.72 |
Evans, Maurice | WAS | 3.05 | 399 | -20.64 | -5.02 | -5.03 | -0.01 |
Livingston, Shaun | MIL | 1.95 | 1779 | -21.02 | -0.82 | 0.7 | 1.52 |
Gibson, Daniel | CLE | 1.97 | 1657 | -21.58 | -0.95 | -3.04 | -2.09 |
Simmons, Bobby | LAC | 3.09 | 635 | -21.84 | -3.28 | -5.16 | -1.87 |
Wilkins, Damien | DET | 2.65 | 1496 | -22.62 | -1.36 | -2.76 | -1.4 |
Harris, Terrel | MIA | 1.88 | 380 | -22.69 | -5.61 | -3.57 | 2.04 |
Jones, Dahntay | IND | 2.62 | 1806 | -26.84 | -1.33 | 0.21 | 1.54 |
Brown, Shannon | PHX | 2.03 | 2226 | -27.54 | -0.88 | -1.91 | -1.03 |
Redd, Michael | PHX | 2.4 | 1244 | -27.8 | -1.88 | -0.85 | 1.03 |
Ariza, Trevor | NOH | 2.91 | 2301 | -29.05 | -1.11 | -1.2 | -0.09 |
Brewer, Ronnie | CHI | 2.06 | 2692 | -29.6 | -0.74 | -2.48 | -1.73 |
Goudelock, Andrew | LAL | 1.61 | 657 | -30.02 | -4.21 | -2.72 | 1.49 |
Smith, J.R. | NYK | 2.4 | 1287 | -31.13 | -2.06 | -1.59 | 0.47 |
Battier, Shane | MIA | 2.33 | 2364 | -32.91 | -1.03 | -3.64 | -2.61 |
Richardson, Quentin | ORL | 2.99 | 1072 | -33.15 | -2.94 | -3.76 | -0.82 |
Neal, Gary | SAS | 1.59 | 2021 | -33.55 | -1.3 | 0.45 | 1.76 |
Redick, J.J. | ORL | 1.99 | 2571 | -34.83 | -1 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
Maggette, Corey | CHA | 3.02 | 1318 | -35.67 | -2.55 | -1.26 | 1.29 |
Jones, James | MIA | 2.72 | 912 | -36.06 | -3.8 | -0.8 | 3 |
Hayward, Lazar | OKC | 3.46 | 248 | -36.07 | -14.39 | -7.21 | 7.18 |
Burks, Alec | UTA | 2 | 1432 | -36.99 | -2.23 | -0.2 | 2.02 |
Parker, Anthony | CLE | 2.06 | 1919 | -37.71 | -1.61 | -1.85 | -0.25 |
Miller, Mike | MIA | 2.67 | 1123 | -38.61 | -3.28 | -2.51 | 0.77 |
Tolliver, Anthony | MIN | 3.46 | 1585 | -38.73 | -2.29 | -2.34 | -0.05 |
Pavlovic, Sasha | BOS | 2.93 | 639 | -41.55 | -6.35 | -6.53 | -0.18 |
Butler, Rasual | TOR | 2.95 | 750 | -41.62 | -5.39 | -7.35 | -1.96 |
Richardson, Jason | ORL | 2.3 | 2324 | -42.02 | -1.45 | -2.7 | -1.25 |
Fernandez, Rudy | DEN | 2.19 | 1348 | -43.19 | -2.85 | -1.28 | 1.57 |
Turner, Evan | PHI | 2.5 | 2567 | -43.6 | -1.34 | -1.37 | -0.03 |
Ellis, Monta | MIL | 2.04 | 1079 | -44.08 | -3.73 | 0.2 | 3.92 |
Barbosa, Leandro | TOR | 1.92 | 1406 | -44.39 | -2.8 | -1.62 | 1.18 |
Ivey, Royal | OKC | 1.51 | 643 | -45.81 | -6.77 | -5.72 | 1.05 |
Carroll, Matt | CHA | 2.16 | 885 | -46.87 | -4.94 | -5.17 | -0.23 |
Anderson, James | SAS | 2.64 | 820 | -46.93 | -5.57 | -3.02 | 2.55 |
Cook, Daequan | OKC | 2.09 | 1685 | -48.89 | -2.54 | -5.34 | -2.8 |
Garcia, Francisco | SAC | 2.66 | 1368 | -50.09 | -3.51 | -4.63 | -1.13 |
Gomes, Ryan | LAC | 3.14 | 821 | -50.99 | -6.06 | -7.15 | -1.09 |
Daniels, Marquis | BOS | 2.62 | 701 | -51.49 | -7.19 | -8.05 | -0.86 |
Brewer, Corey | DEN | 2.86 | 2200 | -52.9 | -2.25 | -2.68 | -0.43 |
Stephenson, Lance | IND | 1.96 | 734 | -53.14 | -6.88 | -6.28 | 0.6 |
Mayo, O.J. | MEM | 1.88 | 3096 | -53.6 | -1.37 | -0.57 | 0.8 |
Howard, Josh | UTA | 3.01 | 1726 | -53.98 | -2.97 | -1.86 | 1.12 |
Morrow, Anthony | NJN | 2.31 | 948 | -55.93 | -5.54 | -3.66 | 1.89 |
Childress, Josh | PHX | 2.82 | 716 | -56.02 | -7.67 | -1.31 | 6.36 |
Walker, Bill | NYK | 2.77 | 1172 | -56.18 | -4.64 | -4.08 | 0.56 |
Delfino, Carlos | MIL | 2.55 | 2678 | -57.98 | -2.01 | -2.34 | -0.33 |
Fields, Landry | NYK | 2.34 | 3146 | -58.22 | -1.49 | -1.35 | 0.14 |
Shumpert, Iman | NYK | 1.67 | 2801 | -58.62 | -1.74 | -1.64 | 0.1 |
Budinger, Chase | HOU | 2.85 | 2037 | -59.92 | -2.79 | -1.59 | 1.2 |
Ridnour, Luke | MIN | 1.58 | 3281 | -60.93 | -1.5 | 2.25 | 3.75 |
Miles, C.J. | UTA | 2.35 | 1942 | -61.45 | -2.81 | -2.38 | 0.43 |
Dooling, Keyon | BOS | 1.85 | 973 | -62.6 | -6.08 | -3.98 | 2.09 |
Butler, Caron | LAC | 3.02 | 2979 | -62.89 | -1.96 | -2.16 | -0.2 |
Casspi, Omri | CLE | 3.14 | 2129 | -63.73 | -2.84 | -2.05 | 0.78 |
Pietrus, Mickael | BOS | 2.76 | 1526 | -65.4 | -4.13 | -4.08 | 0.05 |
Prince, Tayshaun | DET | 2.97 | 3218 | -65.49 | -1.88 | -1.73 | 0.15 |
Hinrich, Kirk | ATL | 1.69 | 1389 | -65.92 | -4.39 | -3.57 | 0.82 |
Mason, Roger | WAS | 2.36 | 1121 | -68.2 | -5.73 | -3.14 | 2.59 |
Bell, Raja | UTA | 2.01 | 1395 | -70.78 | -4.72 | -2.77 | 1.95 |
Singleton, Chris | WAS | 3.07 | 2301 | -72.3 | -2.99 | -3.36 | -0.38 |
Jackson, Stephen | MIL | 2.99 | 1305 | -73.26 | -5.46 | -3.7 | 1.76 |
Belinelli, Marco | NOH | 2 | 3146 | -74.15 | -2 | -2.89 | -0.89 |
Daye, Austin | DET | 3.13 | 933 | -77.09 | -8.11 | -6.61 | 1.5 |
Turkoglu, Hedo | ORL | 3.12 | 2598 | -78.32 | -2.86 | 1.48 | 4.34 |
Foye, Randy | LAC | 2.12 | 2595 | -84.84 | -2.91 | -1.26 | 1.66 |
Miller, Andre | DEN | 1.5 | 3042 | -86.84 | -2.5 | 6.11 | 8.61 |
Thompson, Klay | GSW | 2.69 | 2489 | -90.53 | -3.48 | -0.38 | 3.11 |
Johnson, Wesley | MIN | 2.51 | 2677 | -95.01 | -3.39 | -4.99 | -1.59 |
Salmons, John | SAC | 3.07 | 2428 | -96.51 | -3.82 | -2.32 | 1.5 |
Parsons, Chandler | HOU | 3.15 | 2983 | -101.31 | -3.24 | -1.34 | 1.91 |
Wright, Dorell | GSW | 3.11 | 2903 | -103.45 | -3.41 | -0.38 | 3.02 |
Crawford, Jamal | POR | 1.65 | 2582 | -104.35 | -3.68 | -0.74 | 2.94 |
Crawford, Jordan | WAS | 1.97 | 2839 | -111.2 | -3.56 | 0.79 | 4.35 |
Some comments:
-Holy shit Andre Miller... his defensive rating is twice as bad as any other player. He rates poorly in past seasons, but nothing close to that bad.
-I apologize for promoting Jamal Crawford at the deadline based purely on offensive numbers. After getting the data parser cleaned up, Jamal's offensive numbers weren't very good, and his defensive numbers are awful. Good move David Kahn/Glen Taylor in backing out of any Jamal Crawford deal.
-Do we take Wayne's defensive numbers seriously? I have a hard time explaining it based on cross-matching, or the benefit he gets from having top flight defending bigs behind him.
-If we actually want a lock-down defensive three who doesn't do much on offense, James Johnson is the way to go. He has put up consistently excellent PA100.def numbers since entering the league. Brandon Rush also has good defensive numbers a couple years running... and he can hit the 3.
-Derrick Brown? Why not?
-Will Stuckey be available for trade? D-Will and space for Stuckey? Not the ideal back-court mate for Rubio, but he would really enhance our advantage in getting to the line... while being a damn good player generally.
-This is no fluke for Dudley. He rates as PHX's best player and rated as their best payer last season too (Nash is right behind him both years, but gets hit hard by PA100.def.)