2013 Draft Preview: Small Forwards

2013 Small Forward Ratings:

OTTO PORTER

6'8" 200 lbs , 19 years old

Expected Wins: 9.7

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
1%	30%	53%	16%

Comparisons:

Jared Dudley, Mike Miller, Josh Childress, Malik Sealy, Victor Oladipo, Joe Johnson, Matt Harpring, D.J. Kennedy, Bobby Simmons, Quincy Miller

Noteworthy stats:

42% from three; 8.8 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 3.2 assists per 40

Comments:

He can shoot, pass, rebound, and defend. He has great size for a small forward with 7'1.5" arms. He carried a team that was supposed to have a down year to a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament. He put on numerous dominating performances including a 33, 8, and 5 (stls) game against Syracuse, a 28, 8 and 4 (stls) game against Rutgers, a 4X5 against UCLA (only two steals away from a 5X5), and 5 additional double-doubles all in 2013. Porter's sophomore campaign was dominating enough to leave no question that he is a top-3 pick.

As much as I like Porter, there are some causes for concern. Most future stars hit the ground running, but Porter looked pedestrian throughout his freshman season. Even after Porter took the reins in his sophomore year, he still did not post the usage and related scoring volume you expect of a future star against college competition. This is likely a function of his poor penetration ability. He only got to the rim 2.6 times every 40 minutes and usually got there with the help of an assist. This did not really hurt his efficiency in college but it could be a problem in the NBA. This means that Porter's shot needs to continue to fall at the next level in order to contribute offensively.

GLEN RICE JR.

6'6" 215 lbs , 22 years old

Expected Wins: 2.1

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
12%	73%	14%	0%

Comparisons:

Tyrone Nesby, Kyle Singler, Antoine Wright, J.R. Giddens, Landry Fields, Anthony Parker, Terrance Roberson, Scott Burrell, Dontae' Jones, Sam Jacobson

Comments:

Not nearly the prospect his father was (8.7 wins expected), but still has the tools to become a useful NBA player. The above projections use his 2012 production at Georgia Tech. I don't know how to compare D-League and NCAA numbers, but it looks like Rice's stock has justifiably risen since then. As a Rio Grande Valley Viper, Rice posted better numbers than he did against college competition. There is still a major step between D-League and the NBA, but he should be more comfortable stepping in and contributing than most other players in the draft.

Like Bullock below, Rice is billed as a shooting specialist, but this seems like lazy copy-pasting of his father's legacy. Rice Jr. shot a bland 34% from the college three-point line. For comparison, his old man made 48% of his threes in college. In addition, "snipers" should be almost flawless from the line, but Rice has gone 55.8%, 63.7%, 60.6%, and 73.8% in four years of free-throw shooting. Rice does enough well to warrant a late first pick, but with him starting to move up the mock rankings I'm not sure he represents great value.

REGGIE BULLOCK

6'5" 190 lbs , 22 years old

Expected Wins: 1.9

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
8%	73%	18%	1%

Comparisons:

Matt Carroll, Luther Head, Chris Quinn, Melvin Sanders, Anthony Morrow, Wayne Ellington, Demetris Nichols, Robert Hite, Chris Johnson '12, Greg Minor

Noteworthy stats:

3.2 pnt made per 40; 8.3 rebs per 40; 3.5 asts per 40

Comments:

Three point specialist who should be able to do enough other things to stay on the court. A lot of supposed shooting prospects do not satisfy that later condition and that makes Bullock a little bit special. The numbers would look better if he wasn't 22 years old, but he still looks like a solid pick in the late first where he is slotted.

DESHAUN THOMAS

6'7" 221 lbs , 21 years old

Expected Wins: 1.9

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
17%	75%	8%	0%

Comparisons:

Aaron McKie, Jarvis Hayes, Kelenna Azubuike, Desmond Mason, Kyle Singler, Tayshaun Prince, Jawad Williams, Tyrone Nesby, Jon Leuer

SOLOMON HILL

6'6" 230 lbs , 22 years old

Expected Wins: 1.3

Success Probabilities:

BUST	BNCH	STRT	STAR
20%	74%	7%	0%

Comparisons:

Kelenna Azubuike, Keith Bogans, Greg Minor, Bobby Jones '06, James White, Jeff Taylor '12, David Noel, Tarence Kinsey, Desmon Farmer, Michael Snaer, Lavor Postell